The 37th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards take place this Saturday and their best of prize has become a rather reliable bellwether for the Academy’s Best Picture. The two have matched 7 out of the last 8 years with 2019 being the exception when PGA chose 1917 and Oscar went with Parasite.
PGA also honors documentaries and animated features. Let’s walk through each race with a winner and runner-up selection.
Daryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Weapons
PGA and the Academy have a 9 for 10 match this year. Weapons makes the cut on this list with The Secret Agent replacing it at the Oscars. This is expected to come down to Warner Bros offerings One Battle and Sinners. While I am predicting the latter to get Best Ensemble at Sunday’s Actor Awards, I still see Battle as the Oscar frontrunner and therefore am picking it here. That said, if Sinners gets this, the momentum will have shifted.
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Alabama Solution, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Mom Jayne, Ocean with David Attenborough, The Perfect Neighbor, The Tale of Silyan
At BAFTA over the weekend, Nobody rose above favored The Perfect Neighbor. In this doc derby, PGA has often shown a lean toward the most high profile project and that would be Neighbor. I’ll go with it with the caveat that this category can be unpredictable.
WINNER: The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: The Alabama Solution
Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
The Bad Guys 2, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2
I find myself tempted to go with Zootopia 2 in an upset, but I can’t bet against juggernaut KPop.
I didn’t anticipate mentioning the 2000 feature Billy Elliot in my BAFTA recap covering 2025 pictures, but these voters are dancing to the beat of a different drum so here we are! That’s one surprise of several that developed at the British equivalent of the Academy Awards. It was not surprising that Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another led the way and (yes) won one BAFTA after another. However, the outcome of the acting races provided legit unexpected results and might have a hand in reshaping what happens at the 98th Oscars.
As far as results, I went 14 for 23 in my projections and 1 for 4 in the acting derbies. I correctly forecasted Best Film and Director BAFTAs for One Battle After Another and its maker Anderson. Same goes for its victories in Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography. It also took the Editing prize where I had F1.
In Supporting Actor, Battle‘s Sean Penn emerged in a field where I picked Stellan Skasgård as the winner and had Penn’s costar Benicio del Toro as the runner-up. We now have 3 different Supporting Actor victors in the three highest profiles precursors – Penn at BAFTA, Skarsgård at the Globes, and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) at Critics Choice. Let’s see what SAG Actor does next weekend as this race is wide open.
Battle did nothing but help its status as BP Oscar frontrunner. Yet Sinners didn’t take a significant hit. It won Original Screenplay and I went with Sentimental Value. I correctly picked it for Original Score.
In Supporting Actress, it represented a One Battle miss and a Sinners pickup. I went with Teyana Taylor, but Wunmi Mosaku lodged her first major recognition. Like Supporting Actor, we now have a trio of recipients among the precursors – Mosaku at BAFTA, Taylor at the Globes, and Amy Madigan (Weapons) at Critics Choice. Once again, SAG Actor will be closely viewed in another wide open acting derby. Simply put, I can’t remember the last time both supporting fields were this unpredictable.
That’s not the case in Actress where Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) predictably did a podium walk as her chances at a seasonal sweep are looking strong.
We will not be seeing a Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) sweep. I had him taking Actor with Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) as runner-up. BAFTA went their own way with Robert Aramayo (I Swear). He was additionally named the BAFTA Rising Star. Aramayo is not nominated at Oscar. The last time a BAFTA Best Actor wasn’t among the Academy’s quintet? That would be Jamie Bell in the title role of… you guessed it (!) Billy Elliot.
Here’s where I managed to get it right – Hamnet for Outstanding British Film and Sentimental Value having a subpar day with its sole win for Film Not in the English Language. I was correct in calling Zootopia 2 as Best Animated Film. Same goes for Frankenstein with the trio of Costume Design, Makeup & Hair, and Production Design and F1 in Sound and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Special Visual Effects.
Here’s where I whiffed. I will pat myself on the back for predicting The Perfect Neighbor would not be the documentary that BAFTA selected. Unfortunately I went with 2000 Meters to Andrivka and not Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Could it emerge as a spoiler to a Neighbor Oscar prize?
Pillion looked like the pick for Outstanding British Debut by a Writer, Director or Producer, but BAFTA chose My Father’s Shadow. Same with Children’s & Family Film where Zootopia 2 looked probable, but Boong was listed in the envelope. In Casting (always a tough race to project), I Swear emerged over Sentimental Value and my runner-up One Battle.
So what’s the biggest takeaway? I’d say the chaos occurring in the supporting competitions and that Battle vs. Sinners appears to still be a battle.
Today’s ceremony bestowed these numbers of wins for these movies:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
3 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
2 Wins
Hamnet, I Swear
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Boong, F1, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, My Father’s Shadow, Sentimental Value, Zootopia 2
I’ll have winner predictions up for SAG Actor (happening a week from today) on the blog soon!
The 79th BAFTAs (Britain’s version of the Academy Awards) occur this Sunday and they are often a reliable precursor to what Oscar voters will do. For example, they are 8 for 8 in the past two cycles in forecasting the acting races. On the flip side, in 2022, none of the four BAFTA acting recipients took the Oscar. The previous five cycles has seen the BAFTA Best Film match with Best Picture only twice (Nomadland, Oppenheimer). In 2021, the Brits honored The Power of the Dog over CODA (which wasn’t nominated). The following year it was All Quiet on the Western Front instead of Everything Everywhere All at Once. Last year, BAFTA selected Conclave and not Anora.
That’s why it’s very tempting to go with Hamnet over arguable frontrunners One Battle After Another and Sinners in the top competition. I almost did so, but ultimately decided with roll with Battle (with a low degree of confidence). Let’s walk through each race one by one with my winner projections and a runner-up.
Best Film
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Yorgos Lanthimos (Bugonia), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
WINNER: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Robert Aramayo (I Swear), Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)
WINNER: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Odessa A’Zion (Marty Supreme), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Carey Mulligan (The Ballad of Wallis Island), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another), Emily Watson (Hamnet)
WINNER: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Peter Mullan (I Swear), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
WINNER: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Best Original Screenplay
I Swear, Marty Supreme, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bugonia, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Pillion
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
28 Years Later, The Ballad of Wallis Island, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, Die My Love, H is for Hawk, Hamnet, I Swear, Mr Burton, Pillion, Steve
WINNER: Hamnet
Runner-Up: Pillion
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
The Ceremony, My Father’s Shadow, Pillion, A Want in Her, Wasteman
WINNER: Pillion
Runner-Up: My Father’s Shadow
Best Film Not in the English Language
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sirāt, The Voice of Hind Rajab
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: The Secret Agent
Best Animated Film
Elio, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Best Children’s & Family Film
Arco, Boong, Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2
WINNER: Zootopia 2
Runner-Up: Arco
Best Documentary
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
WINNER: 2000 Meters to Andrivka
Runner-Up: The Perfect Neighbor
Best Casting
I Swear, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
WINNER: Sentimental Value
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
WINNER: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Editing
F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Make Up & Hair
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Sinners
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
WINNER: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
WINNER: F1
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Special Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, How to Train Your Dragon, The Lost Bus
WINNER: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: F1
That adds up to these movies generating numbers of victories:
5 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sentimental Value
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
F1, Hamnet, Zootopia 2
1 Win
2000 Meters to Andrivka, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Marty Supreme, Pillion, Sinners
I’ll have a recap up Sunday with how I performed and my thoughts on how it might impact the Oscars…
The Berlin Film Festival is underway. Last year, it was where critics and audiences first saw Rose Byrne’s Oscar nominated performance for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. There could be another Best Actress contender for the next ceremony via Rose.
Sandra Hüller plays the title role of a 17th century woman masquerading as a man for financial purposes. Marcus Schleinzer directs with a supporting cast including Caro Braun, Marisa Growaldt, Godehard Giese, and Robert Gwisdek. The Austrian/German production is slated for European release this spring while stateside distribution is unsettled (though probably not for long).
Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with much praise going to its star. Hüller was a 2023 nominee for Anatomy of a Fall and she could rise again here. It is also feasible that Austria or Germany might select this as their horse for International Feature Film. If this receives a well-managed campaign, Rose could bloom during the next season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony is looking for Goat to bring in herds of families to multiplexes this weekend. The animated sports comedy from director Tyree Dillihay features an all-star voice cast including Caleb McLaughlin, Gabrielle Union, Aaron Pierre, Nicola Coughlan, David Harbour, Nick Kroll, Jenifer Lewis, Patton Oswalt, Jelly Roll, Jennifer Hudson, Sherry Cola, Eduardo Franco, Andrew Santino, Bobby Lee, and actual all-star Stephen Curry.
While reviews aren’t great, they certainly aren’t baaaaaad (I’m sorry). Rotten Tomatoes is at 82% while Metacritic (as it often is) shows a more telling 59 number. In my estimation, Best Animated Feature could be a stretch. However, we don’t know at this early juncture how strong the race will be. Kris Bowers, an Original Score nominee for The Wild Robot, is behind the music here. Early critical reaction doesn’t indicate he’ll get a second nod. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Emerald Fennell’s loose interpretation of Emily Brontë’s nearly 180-year-old romance Wuthering Heights is out Friday and expected to do brisk business at the box office. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi (currently up for Supporting Actor in Frankenstein) headline with Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell costarring.
Critical reaction is of the mixed variety with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 61 Metacritic. In 2020, Fennell’s debut Promising Young Woman landed five Oscar nominations – Picture, Director, Actress (Carey Mulligan), and Film Editing with a victory for the auteur in Original Screenplay. 2023 follow-up Saltburn drew reviews more in line with Heights and landed zero mentions by the Academy.
Fennell’s third feature might split the difference. I do not anticipate nods in the major races considering the more divisive word-of-mouth. It could, however, show up in down-the-line competitions like Costume Design (where inclusion seems likely), Production Design, or one of the original songs from Charli XCX. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The 78th Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards occur on Saturday evening and there’s some genuine intrigue in the biggest race of all. Their honoree for Feature Film has correlated with the Academy’s Best Director recipient 22 out of 25 times in the 21st century. The exceptions are 2002 when the DGA victor was Rob Marshall (Chicago) and the Oscar winner was Roman Polanski (The Pianist), 2012 – Ben Affleck, Argo (DGA) and Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Oscar), and 2019 – Sam Mendes, 1917 (DGA) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).
Why the drama? This DGA ceremony could provide a major clue as to what will be taking Best Picture in a few weeks. There are three film related competitions at DGA. Let’s walk through them one by one with a winner projection and a runner-up.
Feature Film
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Per usual, 4 of the 5 DGA hopefuls are included the Oscar quintet. The Academy nominated Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) over del Toro. This is a two-man showdown between Anderson and Coogler. The thought process for some time is that Battle is a safe(ish) bet for Best Picture. However, the record shattering 16 nods that Sinners nabbed has shifted the narrative and it is seen as a legit possibility. That momentum could be kicked into a higher gear if Coogler emerges at DGA. It’s tempting to pick him. Yet Sinners has another shot at precursor love via the SAG Actor Awards where a Best Ensemble win seems even more realistic. I’m still going with the Directors Guild favoring PTA – not just for Battle but for a highly celebrated body of work over the past three decades. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice did the same. That said, if Coogler achieves the upset, Sinners will immediately become the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars.
Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Documentary Film
Nominees: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka), Geeta Gandbhir (The Perfect Neighbor), Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni (Cutting Through Rocks), Elizabeth Lo (Mistress Dispeller), Laura Poitras and Mark Obenhaus (Cover-Up)
While I wouldn’t totally discount Chernov or the team behind Cover-Up, The Perfect Neighbor is the most visible of the five docs thanks to widespread Netflix exposure. That should be enough for the W. It is worthy of mention that the DGA’s recipient often doesn’t match the Academy Documentary Feature Film awardee so this is more of a question mark than Feature Film.
Predicted Winner: Geeta Ghandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Runner-Up: Mstyslav Chernov (2000 Meters to Andrivka)
First-Time Feature Film
Nominees: Hasan Hadi (The President’s Cake), Harry Lighton (Pillion), Charlie Polinger (The Plague), Alex Russell (Lurker), Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby)
None of the pics here received any Academy attention though Sorry, Baby probably came closest. Many had it pegged for an Original Screenplay nom. While Lighton and Polinger are viable, I’d stick with Sorry.
Luc Besson’s take on Bram Stoker’s famed bloodsucking novel Dracula has been out in France since last summer, but it’s finally sinking into domestic venues this weekend. The gothic tale stars Caleb Landry Jones in the title role with Christoph Waltz, Zoë Bleu, and Matilda De Angelis providing support.
This version is not expected to make much box office impact stateside. Reviews are rather blasé with 52% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 45 Metacritic. Despite praise for Danny Elfman’s score and Jones in the lead, this is not wired to get awards attention like Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein.
In a best case scenario, awards voters might consider the Makeup and Hairstyling or Production Design categories. A likelier result is that Dracula is forgotten several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Olivia Colman headlines the irreverent and vulgarly romantic Sundance premiere Wicker from co-directors Alex Huston Fischer and Eleanor Wilson. As a Fisherwoman who builds herself a wooden boyfriend, the supporting cast includes Alexander Skarsgård (as said BF), Peter Dinklage, and Elizbeth Debicki.
Currently seeking distribution, Rotten Tomatoes is at 93% with 68 on Metacritic for the bawdy concoction. Three-time nominee and one-time winner Colman (for The Favourite) will probably assist in easily securing a release deal. Oscar attention will be harder to achieve though I do wonder if the Globes could bite in their Musical or Comedy competitions if a legit campaign is mounted. If nothing else, the BAFTAs are a possibility (maybe remote dependent on competition) for Colman. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The easiest prediction to make for the 98th Academy Awards is that the winner of Best Documentary Feature is a Sundance Film Festival premiere. Why? All five nominated titles (The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor) were initially screened at the 2025 Park City event. The year before that, it was 4 of the 5 contending Sundance docs.
Once Upon a Time in Harlem is one you’ll be hearing about. David Greaves directs a project that was started over five decades ago by his late father William (a celebrated filmmaker himself). It focuses on a 1970s gathering of 1920s/30s artists from the NYC neighborhood. Early reviews are raves with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 96 on Metacritic. Called a vitally important historical document, this could be nominated and it may emerge victorious.
Having said that, the documentary branch from the Academy can be a head scratching group to nail down. I only managed 1 for 5 in my forecast for this year’s race. Even with that caveat, it would be shocking if Harlem is not in the conversation for the 99th ceremony. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
