The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is ready to launch in theaters over Easter weekend and expected to dominate the charts. The sequel to 2023’s box office juggernaut The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Aaron Horvath and Michael Jelenic are back directing Illumination Entertainment’s comedic adventure based on the Nintendo IP. Voiceover contributions come from Chris Pratt, Anya Taylor-Joy, Charlie Day, Jack Black, Keegan-Michael Key, Benny Safdie, Donald Glover, Brie Larson, and Glen Powell.
While audiences gobbled up the 2023 offering and are likely to do the same here, critics were mostly lukewarm. The original rated at 59% on Rotten Tomatoes with a 46 Metacritic. Despite some buzz for its song “Peaches”, Mario wasn’t represented in Original Song or in the Animated Feature category at the 96th Academy Awards.
Reviews are on the downslide for the follow-up with a 44% RT and 37 Meta. We’ve already seen one animated effort (Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers) that probably has a reserved slot in the Animated Feature quintet at the 99th ceremony. That’s not the case with Galaxy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zendaya and Robert Pattinson bring The Drama to multiplexes this weekend with Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario) directing. As a couple whose wedding faces unanticipated challenges, the leads are looking for a large female audience over the Easter frame. Mamoudou Athie, Alana Haim, Hailey Gates, and Zoē Winters costar.
The two leads are gearing up for appearances over the next couple of years in their Spider-Man, Dune (they’ll appear in the third feature together), and Batman franchises. Despite various acclaimed performances in non-franchise fare, neither Zendaya or Pattinson have found an awards vehicle.
The Drama is unlikely to be that. While it has 81% on Rotten Tomatoes, the 59 on Metacritic indicates the mixed reaction that has greeted it. I’m not seeing a scenario where this becomes an Oscar player. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. My super duper early selections in 2025 yielded one eventual nominee in Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. In the ten other possibilities, I named Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value. Eventual winner Amy Madigan (Weapons), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) were not identified at that early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or not be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actress and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This initial glance raises the possibility of Meryl Streep getting in for her iconic role as Miranda Priestly in The Devil Wears Prada 2. Same goes for her costar Anne Hathaway in The Odyssey. I have both missing the cut in favor of Sandra Hüller getting a second nomination (and she could be in line for a third in lead Actress) among four first-time contenders.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 99th Academy Awards.
We are only two weeks removed from the 98th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I made my first picks in 2025, my projected quintet yielded just one eventual nominee in Stellan Skasgård for Sentimental Value. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly identified Sean Penn for One Battle After Another who would win his third statue. The other three nominees – Benicio del Toro in One Battle, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, and Delroy Lindo in Sinners were not named.
An interesting factoid about this particular acting race: 18 of the last 20 hopefuls come from Best Picture nominees. That’s certainly something to keep in mind when making these initial forecasts.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
Last year, I projected Colman Domingo making the cut as Jackson family patriarch Joseph Jackson in Michael. That film ended up getting pushed to this April. This time around, I don’t have him in my five but he’s hanging around in other possibilities.
As for other names to keep an eye on, Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine) and John Goodman (Digger) could be looking at their first noms after long and respected careers. Buscemi may face competition from his costar Sam Rockwell. It is currently unknown what the category placement will be for Rockwell, but I’ll slot him here for now. There’s more than one possibility in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey with Tom Holland appearing as the most high profile. Guy Pearce (Ink) will vie for his second go-round in this category two years after The Brutalist.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 99TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Following its Sundance premiere in January, The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist is in actual theaters this weekend. Daniel Roher, who made the 2022 Oscar winning documentary Navalny, co-directs with Charlie Tyrell. Per the title, the Focus Features pickup centers on a hot button issue and should generate a fair amount of attention for its genre.
Whether that translates to any awards focus is a trickier question. While Rotten Tomatoes is at an optimistic 88%, the 57 Metacritic is more glass half empty. The Academy’s branch of doc voters often don’t go with the highest profile titles and the mixed critical reaction can’t help much. That said, I’m sure its distributor will attempt to keep it visible months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Ethan Hawke, fresh off his third acting Oscar nod for Blue Moon, headlines the 1930s set survival drama The Weight. Directed by Padraic McKinley and scheduled for domestic release in September, it premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and has also played Berlin. Costars include Julia Jones, Austin Amelio, and Russell Crowe.
Plenty of reviews are praising this as an old-fashioned yarn with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. The 70 on Metacritic is more indicative of positive write-ups expressing some reservations. A lot of the kudos are going to Hawke’s performance.
Indie outlet Vertical picked up distribution rights. This is not a company who’ve successfully played much in the awards campaigning space. They’ll need to up their game for Hawke to be in contention for a back-to-back nomination. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Power Ballad is the latest musical dramedy in the genre that Irish filmmaker John Carney specializes in. Slated for a June 5th stateside bow, the Lionsgate release features Paul Rudd as a wedding singer who scores an unexpected hit via a fading boy band star (Nick Jonas). The supporting cast includes Peter McDonald, Marcella Plunkett, Haley Rose Liu, and Jack Reynor. Months before the summer premiere, it has been screened this month at the Dublin International Film Festival and South by Southwest.
Carney is best known for 2007’s Once with follow-ups including Begin Again and Sing Street. It sounds like he might have another crowdpleaser on deck. Ballad has scored 100% on Rotten Tomatoes with 82% on Metacritic. Some reviews are calling it one of Rudd’s strongest performances.
While awards prospects are likely limited, both Once and Begin Again landed Original Song noms at the Oscars. The song at the center here is “How To Write a Song (Without You)” and it could be a track worth monitoring several months down the line. If Lionsgate puts up a decent campaign in Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes (where Sing Street vied for Best Motion Picture), both the movie and Rudd could contend. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After months of pontificating and countless posts on what might happen, the 98th Academy Awards are in the rearview with one movie being the clear winner. That’s One Battle After Another from Paul Thomas Anderson. PTA, with three decades of giving us great movies, went into the evening 0 for 11 in previous ceremonies. He is now a three-time Oscar recipient with Battle collecting six of its thirteen nominations.
Overall I went 16 for 21 in my picks. It was a night of no major upsets. For the six categories I got wrong, my runner-up emerged victorious. And, yes, I whiffed on the big one. I thought Ryan Coogler’s Sinners might squeak by with a slightly surprising victory. That Best Picture honor went to the favored Battle.
I correctly forecasted PTA’s latest for Director, Supporting Actor (a no-show Sean Penn becoming just the eighth thespian to nab 3 acting gold statues), and Adapted Screenplay. Yet Battle‘s gains were losses for Sinners elsewhere in my projections. I had Sinners taking Film Editing and Casting but it was Battle.
In Cinematography, I went with Battle and the Academy rolled with Sinners. This provided some history with Autumn Durald Arkapaw becoming the first female to win that prize. Sinners would take home three more awards which I predicted – Michael B. Jordan in Best Actor in a contest where Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) was the frontrunner until the past couple of weeks, Original Screenplay, and Original Score. There’s little doubt that Sinners was #2 in ballots for BP.
Here’s where I else I got it right and we’ll start with the obvious. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) made it clean sweep for Best Actress. Sentimental Value is your International Feature Film with KPop Demon Hunters grabbing Animated Feature and Original Song (“Golden”).
Frankenstein was successful in its trio of tech races (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design). F1 placed first in Sound with Avatar: Fire and Ash making it three in a row for James Cameron’s franchise in Visual Effects.
Where I got it wrong is my Sinners coattails caused me to predict Wunmi Mosaku, but it was Critics Choice and SAG Actor winner Amy Madigan (Weapons) in Supporting Actress. Her podium trip comes 40 years after her first nomination for Twice in a Lifetime. BAFTA documentary winner Mr. Nobody Against Putin is now the top Oscar doc over The Perfect Neighbor.
Fun fact regarding precursors: the Golden Globes only matched this year’s Oscars in the acting races at a 1 for 4 margin (Jessie Buckley only). SAG Actor? 4 for 4.
As for the ceremony itself? Conan O’Brien is a solid host though his material seemed to be stronger last year. The show (no surprise here) was a bit of a slog. The highlight might have been the dignified In Memoriam with tributes to legends lost in the past 12 months including Rob Reiner, Diane Keaton, and Robert Redford.
For those keeping score, here’s the final victory tally:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
4 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Hamnet, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Sentimental Value, Weapons
The 98th Academy Awards will be known for PTA finally getting one Oscar after another after another. Keep an eye on the blog as speculation will soon begin on the 99th…
It might be Oscar weekend, but it’s also time for South by Southwest which is premiering numerous movies and TV shows. The Austin fest isn’t really a breeding ground for eventual Academy fare though 2022’s BP winner Everything Everywhere All at Once did kick off there.
SXSW is known more for showcasing odder and independent spirited movies. The Oscar bait usually saves itself for Venice, Telluride, and Toronto. Nevertheless Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters is an eagerly awaited title that served as opening selection.
This is the rapper and political activist turned filmmaker’s sophomore feature after his acclaimed 2018 debut Sorry to Bother You. The satire centers on a group of shoplifters boasts an eclectic cast including Keke Palmer, Naomi Ackie, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, LaKeith Stanfield, Will Poulter, Don Cheadle, and Demi Moore.
Early buzz indicates Riley has another critical hit with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 75 Metacritic. Reviews also infer that it’s far out there similar to Bother. Perhaps Original Screenplay could be in play at the Oscars, but this might be more tailored to the Independent Spirit Awards or the Gothams (two ceremonies where Riley’s inaugural effort showed up). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As awards followers are aware, 2009 saw the Academy expand the Best Picture category from five movies to ten. That lasted two years and in 2011, it switched from anywhere from 5-10 with 8 or 9 as the magic number for several years. In 2021, the number reverted back to a set 10.
What if that hadn’t happened? What if the BP derby had stayed a quintet? What pictures would have made the cut?
On the eve of the 98th Academy Awards, let’s ponder what five would have done so at the 97th. One is for certain. We know that Sean Baker’s Anora has a reserved slot. It won five out of six awards it was up for – Picture, Director, Actress (Mikey Madison), Original Screenplay, and Film Editing.
Picking the other 4 of 9 for the final five is less clear. Here’s my best speculation.
The Brutalist
Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama scored ten nods and won three for Adrien Brody’s lead performance, Original Score, and Cinematography. Other nods went to the director, Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones), Supporting Actor (Guy Pearce), Original Screenplay, Film Editing, and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes and it can certainly be argued that it was second in the BP voting.
A Complete Unknown
James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet landed a laudable eight nominations – BP, Director, Actor, Monica Barbaro in Supporting Actress, Edward Norton in Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Sound. It was one of two BP nominees that went home empty-handed.
Does It Make the Final Five?
I don’t think it’s automatic but yes. Despite the 0 for 8 tally, the fact that it made the directing five puts it over the edge.
Conclave
Edward Berger’s drama about the search a new Pope also landed eight mentions with the others coming in Actor (Ralph Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Isabella Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. It won for the script.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Like Unknown, not automatic but I’m going with yes because of the screenplay victory.
Dune: Part Two
The Denis Villeneuve sequel managed five nominations with two victories in Sound and Visual Effects and at bats for Cinematography and Production Design.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. That handful is nods is only half of what the 2021 predecessor achieved and Villeneuve’s omission is telling.
Emilia Pérez
Jacques Audiard’s crime musical easily led the ceremony with 13 nominations. There were victories in Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña) and Original Song. Other noms were for directing, Actress (Karla Sofia Gascón), Adapted Screenplay, International Feature Film, Cinematography, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, another Original Song, and Sound.
Does It Make the Final Five?
Yes. As you may recall, Gascón’s controversial comments likely sunk the pic’s chances at International Feature Film where I’m Still Here would emerge. However, at the time of the nominations, I feel Pérez still would’ve made it in the top half of contention.
I’m Still Here
The Brazilian political drama from Walter Salles was the beneficiary of Emilia backlash when it took the IFF prize. It was also up for Actress (Fernanda Torres).
Does It Make the Final Five?
No. Even with the late breaking international prize, the three noms are second lowest of the lot.
Nickel Boys
RaMell Ross’s drama is the only pic with two nominations with the other coming in Adapted Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
No and the question was pretty much answered above.
The Substance
Coralie Fargeat was nominated for director in her wild anti-aging body horror saga that won Makeup and Hairstyling and was up for Actress (Demi Moore) and Original Screenplay.
Does It Make the Final Five?
This was the toughest one to leave off, but no. I’d have it sixth. Had Moore received Best Actress, it might be a different story.
Wicked
With 10 noms, the adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical won Costume Design and Production Design. It additionally made the ballot for Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Sound, and Visual Effects.
Does It Make the Final Five?
The case could certainly be made, but I’m going no. No direction or screenplay inclusions make the call a bit easier.
That means my 2024 final five consists of the alphabetically top heavy:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
The 98th Academy Awards air tomorrow and down the line, I’ll give you my top 5 for that show!
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