The 31st Critics Choice Awards aired tonight and it’s the first major awards show of the season with the Golden Globes up in one week. Obviously CCA could offer the first clues as to what will follow with the Oscars as the grand finale.
In what was seen as a Warner Bros showdown between One Battle After Another and Sinners for Best Picture, it was Battle that prevailed as I predicted. Yet it was Sinners and (unexpectedly) Frankenstein that tied for the most victories at four apiece.
I went 17/23 in my predictions which I’ll take in a night that gave us a couple of legit surprises. Besides BP, Battle took Director (Paul Thomas Anderson) and Adapted Screenplay (also PTA) for three trophies. It solidifies the pic as the frontrunner at the Oscars.
Sinners emerged victorious in Original Screenplay, Young Actor/Actress (Miles Caton), Score, and Casting and Ensemble (where I had Battle projected).
The lead acting categories went as planned with Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) in Actress and Timothée Chalamet as Marty Supreme in Actor. You can expect to see both make more podium walks in the coming weeks.
I correctly called Amy Madigan as Supporting Actress for the already iconic Aunt Gladys in Weapons. It will be interesting to see if she racks up more wins as the season goes along.
The acting derby that was a genuine shocker was Supporting Actor where Jacob Elordi took the prize for Frankenstein. I had Benicio Del Toro (Battle). Truth be told, I would’ve slotted Elordi fifth or sixth as far as win possibility and have had him in and out of my quintet at the Oscars. We’ll see if this is a one-off, but this definitely increases his visibility in forthcoming ceremonies. I did correctly project Guillermo del Toro’s monster tale in Costume Design, Hair & Makeup, and Production Design.
Here’s where else I got it right – The Naked Gun as Best Comedy, KPop Demon Hunters for Animated Feature and Song (“Golden”), Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning for Stunt Design, and Avatar: Fire and Ash in Visual Effects.
Where I went wrong – F1 picked up two CCA’s in Editing and Sound. I respectively went with Battle and Sinners. Train Dreams is the Cinematography victor over Battle.
Finally, The Secret Agent is the 2nd biggest surprise (after Elordi) as Best Foreign Language Film where I had It Was Just an Accident predicted and No Other Choice as runner-up.
The Golden Globes are a week away. I will have winner predictions up on the blog on Wednesday!
All in all, these movies generated these numbers of victories:
4 Wins
Frankenstein, Sinners
3 Wins
One Battle After Another
2 Wins
F1, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, The Secret Agent, Train Dreams, Weapons
Now called the SAG Actor Awards and not just SAG Awards, the 32nd edition of the ceremony airs March 1 on Netflix. Nominations are out this Wednesday. Acting categories usually match Oscar at a 4/5 clip while top race Best Ensemble is usually heavy on eventual Academy BP contenders. Last year, all five SAG nominees ended up being in the BP Oscar ten. The year prior it was four.
Here are my predictions in the six SAG Actor races with an alternate for each. I’ll have a recap up with my thoughts and how I performed on Wednesday!
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Alternate – Wicked: For Good
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Outstanding Performane by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – One Battle After Another
That means I’m projecting these numbers of nominations for these pictures:
5 Nominations
One Battle After Another
4 Nominations
Sentimental Value
3 Nominations
Sinners, Wicked: For Good
2 Nominations
Hamnet, Marty Supreme
1 Nomination
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Blue Moon, Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Jay Kelly Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Weapons
This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.
What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.
Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.
Best Picture
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
See above
Best Director
Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
See above
Best Actress
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.
Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Best Actor
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.
Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.
Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons
Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.
Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Hamnet
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât
CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.
Winner: It Was Just an Accident
Runner-Up: No Other Choice
Best Comedy
Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville
A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.
Winner: The Naked Gun
Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.
Winner: KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: Zootopia 2
Best Casting and Ensemble
Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: Sinners
Best Young Actor/Actress
Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)
Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.
Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners
Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Best Cinematography
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Sinners with Battle right behind.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Costume Design
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Editing
Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners
The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.
Winner: One Battle After Another
Runner-Up: F1
Best Hair and Makeup
Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good
This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good
If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.
Winner: Frankenstein
Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good
Best Score
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: One Battle After Another
Best Song
Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.
Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners
Best Stunt Design
Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare
This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.
Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Runner-Up: F1
Best Sound
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare
I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.
Winner: Sinners
Runner-Up: F1
Best Visual Effects
Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman
This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.
Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Runner-Up: Frankenstein
That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:
6 Wins
One Battle After Another
5 Wins
Sinners
3 Wins
Frankenstein
2 Wins
KPop Demon Hunters
1 Win
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons
Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!
Dolores Fonzi directs, cowrites, and stars in the true life Argentinian legal drama Belén which premiered in its native country earlier this fall. An Amazon Prime bow is planned stateside in the near future. The supporting cast includes Camila Pláate, Laura Paredes, Julieta Cardinali, and César Troncoso.
Selected as Argentina’s hopeful for Best International Feature Film, it is among the six contenders for Foreign Language Film at the Critics Choice Awards (a bit of a surprise nominee). It will attempt to become the nation’s fifth Oscar nominee of the 21st century behind 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), Wild Tales from 2014, and 2022’s Argentina, 1985.
The 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating is encouraging, but the 70 Metacritic is more telling. Belén would need to leap some serious competitors that could lock down nods beyond IFF including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and Sirât. That could be a tall order, but this category has had unexpected inclusions before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mistress Dispeller premiered at the Venice Film Festival all the way back in September 2024, but was released stateside in October of this year. From filmmaker Elizabeth Lo, the documentary focuses on a title character hired to break up a Chinese woman’s husband’s extramarital affair.
Among the 15 shortlisted docs in contention for the Academy Awards, Dispeller is one of the genre titles not in the politically charged space. Perhaps there’s a lane for one or two of them to make the cut. Reviews are solid with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic. If it gets into the quintet, it would be a surprise though the doc voters can be volatile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Coexistence, My Ass is one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries for the 98th Academy Awards as it tries to make the quintet after premiering at Sundance nearly a year ago. From filmmaker Amber Fares, it focuses on Israeli comedian and activist Noam Shuster-Eliassi’s one-woman show.
With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Coexistence must coexist with numerous politically themed docs in the running and some are higher profile including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. The voting branch for this genre is unpredictable and any of the 15 contenders could get in. However, predicting this one in your projected five would be an upset selection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Back in February, Holding Liat won the best documentary prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Nearly a year later, it is slated for U.S. release in January and is one of the 15 shortlisted contenders for best of in its genre at the 98th Academy Awards. From filmmaker Brandon Kramer with Darren Aronofsky as a producer, Liat refers to a woman kidnapped during the October 7th attacks in Gaza.
Based on 13 reviews, the pic stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Liat will try to make the final five in a category filled with politically themed subject matter including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities, but that could change when I update my predictions by the end of the year. It could make the cut though some of the other hopefuls seem to have a higher profile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
When the Critics Choice branch revealed a number of shortlisted contenders for the first time back in November, writer/director Charlie Polinger’s The Plague was a surprise mention in Casting and Ensemble, Cinematography, and Score. The psychological drama that premiered at Cannes stars Everett Blunck, Kayo Martin, Kenny Rasmussen, and Joel Edgerton. It was released in limited fashion on Christmas Eve with a wide bow slated for January 2nd. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 100% with Metacritic at 69.
The Plague did not end up being a final nominee in any of those 3 CCA categories though it landed a nom for Blunck in Best Young Actor/Actress. His costar Edgerton is a possibility to receive his first acting nod, but it would be in lead for Train Dreams. Any hopes for The Plague to play at the Academy Awards have probably left the station as it seems IFC isn’t mounting much of a campaign. It also didn’t make the Cinematography or Score shortlists for the big dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
This week’s biggest announcement about the Oscars in general is that the telecast is moving to YouTube in 2029. The most notable development for the 98th ceremony was the release of the shortlists. There are several categories slimmed down from anywhere to 10-20 possibilities – International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, the new Casting race, Cinematography, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Original Song, Sound, and Visual Effects.
We have winners and losers to discuss from those contenders. The Testament of Ann Lee was blanked and it was expected to show up in competitions like Cinematography and the musical fields. Jay Kelly underperformed. It made the list of 20 Score hopefuls, but it didn’t get into Casting (where I’ve had it predicted for a nomination). The Lee and Kelly struggles are enough for me to drop Amanda Seyfried (Lee) from my Actress five and Adam Sandler (Kelly) from my Supporting Actor quintet. Both could still make it, but I’m more skeptical. The beneficiaries are Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) as they return to their lineups. I am now also giving the 2nd Netflix BP slot to Train Dreams instead of Kelly. In Best Actor, however, I’m dropping Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams from my five in favor of Michael B. Jordanin Sinners.
On the other hand, Wicked: For Good landed 8 shortlist mentions (tying with Sinners). Does that help its chances for a BP nom where I dropped it out of my 10 six days ago? That’s arguable. I’d certainly say it doesn’t hurt and I toyed with putting it back in. As you’ll see, it’s almost there in 11th.
It was also a banner day for Sirât, the Spanish drama that landed a surprise 5 shortlist mentions. I’m not projecting it though the idea of the film getting a BP nod is not out of the question.
The other news earlier this week was the review embargo lifting for Avatar: Fire and Ash. For the most part, it is being called the weakest of the trilogy. I’d say its fortunes took a tumble in BP though it’s still in the conversation.
Let’s take a look at all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Train Dreams (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Wicked: For Good (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
14. No Other Choice (PR: 14) (E)
15. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 4) (E)
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (E)
9. Clint Bentley, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Adam Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (E)
9. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (PR: 9) (E)
10. Josh O’Connor, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Secret Agent (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (-1)
9. If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nuremberg (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Hedda (PR: 8) (-2)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sirât (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 6) (E)
7. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (E)
8. Belén (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. In Your Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Magnificent Life (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Endless Cookie (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Scarlet (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Boys Go to Jupiter
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (E)
5. Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Seeds (PR: 8) (E)
9. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Blue Moon
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
4. Train Dreams (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (-1)
7. F1 (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Bugonia (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hedda (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 4) (-2)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jay Kelly
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sinners (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kokuho (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Nuremberg (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Alto Knights (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Ugly Stepsister (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
28 Years Later
Weapons
Wolf Man
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 9) (+3)
7. F1 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Hedda (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Golden” from Kpop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from Come See Me in the Good Light (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 8) (+1)
8. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. “Drive” from F1 (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
“Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Superman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Warfare
The Testament of Ann Lee
Marty Supreme
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. F1 (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Tron: Ares (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jurassic World: Rebirth (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Electric State (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Mickey 17
How to Train Your Dragon
And that leaves these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
14 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Sinners
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
6 Nominations
Wicked: For Good
4 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent
3 Nominations
Bugonia, F1, Train Dreams
2 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Come See Me in the Good Light, KPop Demon Hunters
1 Nomination
Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Hedda, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, No Other Choice, The Perfect Neighbor, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Weapons, Zootopia 2
Japanese drama Kokuho showed up in two shortlists for the 98th Academy Awards released today (expect a few posts covering international and documentary contenders in particular). Being that it’s Japan’s submission for International Feature Film, materializing on that list wasn’t a major surprise. Making the ten possibilities in Makeup and Hairstyling was. Lee Sang-il directs with a cast including Ryo Yoshizawa, Ryusei Yokohama, Mitsuki Takahata, Shinobu Terajima, Min Tanaka, and Ken Watanabe. It was first screened at Cannes in the summer.
The film has bragging rights. In November, it became the highest grossing live-action film in its native country. It also sports a 100% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Japan has seen a handful of their submissions make the Academy’s cut in the 21st century. They are The Twilight Samurai from 2003, Departures in 2008 (which won), Shoplifters in 2018, another victor with Drive My Car from 2021, and Perfect Days from 2023.
That’s a resume that would look darn good in a different year. International Feature Film, however, is packed with other surefire hopefuls including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Sirât (which had a banner day on the shortlists), and No Other Choice (all Neon titles). There may not be room for Kokuho to shine. It probably stands a better shot at Makeup and Hairstyling as they’ve proven to be a branch capable of unexpected nominations. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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