MGM/UA hopes younger viewers are hungry for some cannibal love when Bones and All opens wide on Wednesday, November 23rd. Based on a 2015 novel by Camille DeAngelis, Taylor Russell and Timothee Chalamet headline the road flick from director Luca Guadagnino. Costars include Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg, Andre Holland, Chloe Sevigny, David Gordon Green, and Jessica Harper.
The subject matter could be a challenging one for holiday crowds though Chalamet has a rabid fanbase that could turn up. The Thanksgiving release (it’s out five screens November 18 before the expansion) is also the only holiday newbie geared toward teens and young adults. Strange World is for the kids while Devotion and The Fabelmans skew older. Reviews are pretty appetizing with an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score following its September debut at the Venice Film Festival.
With a reported count of around 2500 venues, I’ll say Bones gets to mid single digits for the three-day and for the five.
Bones and All opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Sony Pictures is hoping Thanksgiving moviegoers fly with Devotion when it opens Wednesday, November 23rd. The true life tale of Korean War fighter pilots stars Jonathan Majors, Glen Powell, Joe Jonas, and Christina Jackson. J.D. Dillard directs the reported $90 million production.
Reviews were decent after it premiered at the Toronto Film Festival in September. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 85%. The pic hopes to bring in an older audience for the long holiday frame. It could help that Top Gun: Maverick and its naval storyline is the biggest blockbuster of 2022. There could be a carryover effect and it might not hurt that Powell (who played Hangman in Maverick) is in this.
That said, Devotion isn’t a sequel to an iconic 80s film and Tom Cruise is nowhere to be found in the cockpit. Considering the budget, this seems on course to flop. I’ll project the Friday to Sunday earnings fall under $10 million with the five-day in the lower teens.
Devotion opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The last time Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal played father and son, it was nearly 20 years ago in Roland Emmerich’s disaster epic The Day After Tomorrow. For the upcoming holiday, they’re family again in the Mouse Factory’s animated Strange World (out Wednesday November 23rd). Voicing a pair of explorers in the sci-fi themed adventure, Don Hall (who made Big Hero 6 and Raya and the Last Dragon) and Qui Nguyen direct. Other voices getting in on the action include Jaboukie Young-White, Gabrielle Union, and Lucy Liu.
Disney is no stranger to releasing high profile product over the long Turkey Day frame. Sometimes that’s Pixar material or traditionally drawn fare such as this. Frozen remains the gold standard. It debuted to $67 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Thanksgiving weekend with $93 million when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Other Disney releases like Moana and Coco made off with $82 and $72 million over their respective first five. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur grossed just under $40 million from Friday to Sunday in 2015 with $55 million for the extended period. Perhaps the best comp is last year’s Encanto. It made $27 million for the three-day with $40 million for the five.
The buzz seems strangely quiet considering the studio pedigree. I would argue Encanto had more heat before it opened. Strange could manage only a second place start behind the third outing for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (which does give Disney a one-two punch for the weekend). This might open a little closer to Dreamworks Animation’s Penguins of Madagascar from eight Thanksgivings ago at $25 million (Fri-Sun) and $35 million (Wed-Sun). It might even fall short of that.
Strange World opening weekend prediction: $19.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Blogger’s Update (11/17): The Fathom Events theatrical output of The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2 wasn’t on my radar last week when I made projections. I believe it should open in third place (with #2 certainly possible). My estimates have been updated below to reflect the change.
Culinary satire The Menu and true life journalistic expose She Said are the newbies premiering Friday. Each will vie for runner-up status as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will undoubtedly remain in first place in its sophomore outing. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the fresh product here:
I’m giving the edge to The Menu for #2. I don’t think anything other than Panther will manage double digits and my higher single digits estimate for Menu outweighs the low to mid ones for She Said.
Their placement at 2 and 5 is reliant on neither drastically underperforming and Black Adam having a low to mid 40s dip for fourth. Ticket to Paradise should be fourth depending on the She Said gross.
Back to Panther. The MCU sequel fell $6 million short of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for biggest domestic premiere of 2022. Strange fell 67% in its second weekend while the year’s other MCU title Thor: Love and Thunder dropped 68%. With its A Cinemascore grade, Wakanda may not fall quite that precipitously.
Here’s how I see the top 5 playing out:
1 . Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $70.3 million
2. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
3. The Chosen Season 3: Episodes 1 and 2
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
4. Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
5. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
6. She Said
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (November 11-13)
I went a little high in projecting that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would achieve the largest debut of the year. It made $181.3 million compared to my call of $195.2 million. As mentioned, that didn’t reach the $187 million that Multiverse did (though it easily outpaced Thor‘s $144 million). Wakanda also fell under the $202 million that its 2018 predecessor made out of the gate.
Black Adam fell to second after two weeks on top with $8 million (in line with my $8.7 million estimate). This comic book adaptation is up to $150 million after three weeks.
Ticket to Paradise was third at $5.9 million, on target with my $5.8 million prediction. The rom com hit $56 million after its third frame.
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile was fourth with $3.2 million (a bit ahead of my $2.5 million estimate) for $40 million total.
Smile rounded out the top five with $2.3 million (I said $2.4 million) as it passed the century mark with $102 million.
The true life tale of the New York Times journalists who exposed the crimes of Harvey Weinstein, Maria Schrader’s She Said debuts November 18th. Zoe Kazan and Carey Mulligan play the investigative reporters with a supporting cast including Patricia Clarkson, Andre Braugher, Jennifer Ehle, Tom Pelphrey, and Samantha Morton.
Critical reaction skewed positive after its premiere at the New York Film Festival. With an 82% Rotten Tomatoes score, She could contend for nods in some Oscar races including Picture. The best reviews have compared it to 2015’s BP winner Spotlight.
The ripped from the fairly recent headlines story could assist in bringing in filmgoers. Universal is certainly banking on a female turnout. My hunch is that this struggles in its opening and hopes for sturdy legs in subsequent frames. Low to mid single digits might be the start.
Searchlight Pictures is hoping moviegoers check out The Menu when it opens November 18th. Mark Mylod, best known for small screens fare like Game of Thrones and Shameless, directs. The black comedy features a large cast of cooks and diners including Ralph Fiennes, Anya Taylor-Joy, Nicholas Hoult, Hong Chau, Janet McTeer, Judith Light, John Leguizamo, Reed Birney, Aimee Carrero, and Arturo Castro.
For the most part, critics like what they were served when this debuted at Toronto. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 88%. That said, The Menu is not generating much awards chatter which could’ve helped in appetizing an older audience.
A debut at or above $10 million would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there with $7-9 million being more likely.
Blogger’s Note (11/09): I am revising my estimate down from $205.2M to $195.2M. As opposed to the narrative below, that would now give it the #9 opening of all time behind its 2018 predecessor.
On November 11th, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever looks to score the second largest opening of the young decade and add another MCU pic to the top 10 debuts of all time. The sequel to 2018’s phenomenon has Ryan Coogler returning to the director’s chair. Early reactions are very positive saying that part 2 pays touching tribute to Chadwick Boseman, who played the title character in the original and passed away in 2020. Letitia Wright, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Winston Duke, Dominique Thorne, Tenoch Huerta, Martin Freeman, and Angela Bassett are among the large cast.
Wakanda is not expected to approach the $260 million that Spider-Man: No Way Home made out of the gate last December. It should, however, get beyond the $191 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earned in May. If it does, it would land the #2 opening of the decade and the pandemic era.
In February of 2018, Black Panther rode a wave of sizzling buzz to a $202 million start over the Friday to Sunday portion of President’s Day weekend. For the four-day frame, it topped out at $242 million before eventually grossing $700 million domestically. The three-day premiere still stands at #8 all-time while the overall haul is 6th.
I do believe that all the Wakanda stars are lining up for a Friday to Sunday take that surpasses the original by a small margin. My estimate would give the new Panther the #8 opening while moving its predecessor down to ninth. Time will tell if it eventually approaches the $700 million that the first part amassed.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opening weekend prediction: $195.2 million
Black Adam hopes for a three-peat before Black Panther: Wakanda Forever invades theaters next weekend. In order to do so, it’ll need to fend off Japan’s animated fantasy One Piece Film: Red. We also have the expansion of Oscar hopeful The Banshees of Inisherin and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
One Piece is a bit of a mystery heading into the early November frame. I’ve settled on it getting to double digits, but it could certainly climb higher or fall under my projection. Keep an eye on whether my estimate changes throughout the weekend. A gross just north of $10 million should mean runner-up status with Black Adam in the low to possibly mid teens.
Oscar hopefuls like Banshees have faced a tough road and I suspect this will too. It could find itself in a fight with Prey for the Devil for the five spot as I anticipate that horror pic will suffer a large sophomore decline. I’m giving Prey the edge.
Holdovers Ticket to Paradise and Smile should place third and fourth. Finally, there’s also a wider rollout for Armageddon Time. The coming of age drama from director James Gray stars Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, and Anthony Hopkins. I have not done an individual post forecasting its expansion because I don’t believe it will clear $1 million.
This is how I see the top 6 playing out:
1 . Black Adam
Predicted Gross: $14.4 million
2. One Piece Film: Red
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Ticket to Paradise
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
4. Smile
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
5. Prey for the Devil
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. The Banshees of Inisherin
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (October 28-30)
As expected, Dwayne Johnson easily ruled the charts as Black Adam took in $27.4 million in weekend #2. That is on pace with my $28.1 million take and the ten-day total is $110 million.
Ticket to Paradise held the two spot with a 40% decline in its sophomore outing at $9.8 million, in line with my $10.4 million prediction. The two-week tally is $33 million.
Prey for the Devil scared up a middling $7.1 million in third. That’s nothing special for the exorcism tale which drew only a C+ Cinemascore grade. It did, however, top my $5.9 million forecast.
Smile was fourth with $5.4 million and I was more generous with $6.5 million. The low budget fright fest has amassed $92 million.
Halloween Ends rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $4.1 million) for $60 million over three weeks.
Awards bait pics Till and Tár both underwhelmed in their wide premieres. The former was sixth with $2.7 million (not matching my $3.8 million projection). The latter was 10th with $1 million and I was more optimistic at $1.8 million. Respective totals are $3.5 million and $2.5 million.
Director Martin McDonagh reunites with his In Bruges leads Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin. The black comedy set a century ago in Ireland expands to approximately 800 screens next weekend after a solid limited debut. Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan costar in McDonagh’s follow-up to 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri which garnered six Academy nods.
Since its premiere at the Venice Film Festival, Inisherin has been subject to its own awards chatter (all four actors could get nominations). The Rotten Tomatoes meter is 97%. In 58 venues this past frame, Banshees took in over $500,000 with a per screen average approaching $10,000.
That could bode well for the early November buildout. On the other hand, we’ve seen platform release like Tár and Till struggle mightily as their counts grow. Banshees could have a slightly broader appeal. I’ll say anywhere between $2-3 million is the reasonable guesstimate.
The Banshees of Inisherin opening weekend prediction: $2.2 million
Having grossed nearly $150 million in Japan and other territories, animated fantasy adventure One Piece Film: Red arrives on November 4th. The 15th feature in the franchise that began in 2000, the Toei Animation title comes from director Gorõ Taniguchi.
This is the same studio that gave us Dragon Ball Super: Broly and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero. The former made nearly $10 million in its opening frame in January 2019 while Super Hero swooped to a remarkable $21 million start in August.
One Piece is currently the highest grosser of the year in Japan. Comparisons to Dragon Ball are tricky since the predecessors in this series have not received wide North American distribution. One Piece: Stampede preceded this and made just over $1 million domestically in 2019.
A further complication is that I’ve yet to see a screen count. The aforementioned Super Hero flew to its $20M+ premiere in 3000 venues. I doubt this will reach those numbers. That said, I’ve underestimated this genre before and it seems sensible to project this could debut right above or right below $10 million.
One Piece Film: Red opening weekend prediction: $10.2 million
For my The Banshees of Ininsherin prediction, click here:
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