The latest concoction from the prolific Yorgos Lanthimos expands nationwide October 31st with Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline with Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone providing support. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival in late August and has an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating with 68 on Metacritic.
Poor Things became a major Academy contender (11 nominations) in 2023 while Kinds of Kindness underwhelmed with awards voters and viewers last year. I suspect Bugonia may perform closer to the latter as it could struggle everywhere between the coasts. While Poor amassed $34 million domestically at the box office, Kindness managed just $5 million.
Slated to hit around 1800 venues after a limited rollout the previous weekend, I have this between $2-4 million.
Universal looks for moviegoers to return to the past when Back to the Future is out for its 40th anniversary on October 31st. The time travel classic from Robert Zemeckis that spawned two sequels features Michael J. Fox, Christopher Lloyd, Leah Thompson, Crispin Glover, Thomas F. Wilson, a DeLorean, the Libyans, and “The Power of Love”.
The power of its re-release could be limited compared to the studio’s recent 50th anniversary reissue of Jaws. That shark tale amassed nearly $10 million in late August in its first three days on around 3200 screens. Future is clocking far less venues at approximately 1900 so mid single digits is likely.
Back to the Future 40th anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million
A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.
Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Endswith Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.
As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.
After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how it see it shaking out:
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.
Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.
Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.
One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.
Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.
Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll look for Chainsaw Man – The Move: Reze Arc to cut impressive grosses when it debuts October 24th. The anime fantasy from Japan serves as a sequel to the first season of the manga TV show from Tatsuki Fujimoto. Tatsuya Yoshihara directs.
In September, the film has performed well in its home country. It managed to knock out Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle after nine weeks atop the charts. That said, it made about $8 million in U.S. dollars compared to Castle‘s start of $37 million in comparable currency.
That same story should play out domestically. While Castle decimated the all-time North American anime opening at $70 million, Chainsaw might manage low double digits or low teens.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
20th Century Studios hopes that Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere has a glorious first three days at the box office when it drops October 24th. Centered around the making of his 1982 album Nebraska, Jeremy Allen White plays the title character with Jeremy Strong as longtime manager Jon Landau. Scott Cooper directs the musical bio with a supporting cast including Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron and David Krumholtz.
Nowhere was first seen at the Telluride Film Festival where it managed to generate awards chatter, especially for White (who’s won multiple honors for his TV work on The Bear). Overall reviews were somewhat tempered in their praise with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic.
Last year, A Complete Unknown (from the 20th Century umbrella under Searchlight) struck a chord with viewers to tune of $75 million. That biopic of Bob Dylan with Timothée Chalamet seemed to have more buzz prior to its release. Some estimates have Nowhere reaching $20-25 million, but I’m thinking mid teens is where its ends up.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million
Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:
My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.
The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.
As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.
Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million
2. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Good Fortune
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Roofman
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. After the Hunt
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 10-12)
Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.
Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.
One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.
The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.
I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.
The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.
Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.
The busy Luca Guadagnino (who helmed two 2024 releases with Challengers and Queer) is back in multiplexes with After the Hunt. The thriller features Julia Roberts headlining alongside Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny. An Amazon MGM production, it was unveiled in six venues last weekend with the wide release on October 17th.
Hunt debuted at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Considered by many (including me) to be a major awards player, the Italian screening essentially disabused that notion. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 44% with Metacritic at 51.
Despite its middling critical reaction, it performed impressively in limited fashion with a $26k+ per screen average. However, the coastal performance likely won’t correlate to everything in between. Slated to expand to approximately 1200 screens, lower to mid single digits sounds right.
After the Hunt wide opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million
Good Fortune is hoping for just that when the Lionsgate release opens October 17th. The supernatural comedy marks the directorial debut of Aziz Ansasi. He also wrote the script and costars with Seth Rogen, Keke Palmer, Sandra Oh and Keanu Reeves as a guardian angel.
The film premiered at the Toronto Film Festival to mostly satisfied reviews (83% Rotten Tomatoes, 69 Metacritic). Humorous features have seen decreasing wide theatrical releases in recent years. In August, The Naked Gun managed mid teens out of the gate with name brand recognition.
I doubt Fortune is that fortunate. Low teens could be the ceiling and $10M+ is certainly possible, but I’m going lower as this genre struggles at multiplexes.
Good Fortune opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Universal Pictures is banking on horror fans receiving Black Phone 2 with open arms on October 17th. Following up on the surprise 2022 hit based on a novel by Joe Hill (son of Stephen King), Scott Derrickson is back directing. Ethan Hawke reprises his role as serial killer The Grabber alongside Mason Thameas, Madeleine McGraw, Demián Bechir, Miguel Mora, Jeremy Davies and Arianna Rivas.
Scary movies have been hot properties in 2025 and there should be enough goodwill left over from the original for this to solidly perform. Reviews are mostly positive with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 71 Metacritic (pretty much right where part 1 landed).
I wouldn’t be surprised if this premiere plays out similar to Smile 2. That sequel opened on the same weekend last year with $23 million and that just edged the $22.6 million earned by its predecessor. The first Phone dialed up $23.6 million for starters and I’ll gave 2 slightly more.
Black Phone 2 opening weekend prediction: $25.5 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 