Gerard Butler headlines the disaster flick sequel Greenland 2: Migration which kicks off 2026 releases on January 9th. He reunites with his Angel Has Fallen and Kandahar director Ric Roman Waugh for a follow-up to the 2020 original. Costars include Morena Baccarin and Roman Griffin Davis.
A comp to part 1 is impossible since it was put out in December 2020 without a theatrical release due to the COVID pandemic. It did perform well on home viewing. Butler’s genre pics have a history with early January debuts. 2023’s Plane earned just over $10 million out of the gate while last year’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera made off with $15 million.
My hunch is that Migration gets right between those numbers for a respectable enough start.
Greenland 2: Migration opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million
We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.
Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).
Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $42 million
2. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $8 million
6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
7. David
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $6 million
Box Office Results (December 26-28)
Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.
Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.
Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.
The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.
Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.
Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.
Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.
Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.
I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.
Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.
There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.
Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $61.8 million
2. David
Predicted Gross: $19.5 million
3. Marty Supreme
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
4. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
6. Anaconda
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
7. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
8. Song Sung Blue
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 19-21)
James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.
Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.
The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.
Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.
In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.
Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.
I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.
Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)
With plenty of Oscar buzz and a leading man who’s been on a hot streak, Marty Supreme is looking to set the table for a strong start this Christmas. Director Josh Safdie goes solo like his brother did earlier this year with The Smashing Machine, but this time the awards buzz stayed intact. Timothée Chalamet headlines the 1950s set sports dramedy. The eclectic supporting cast includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Tyler Okonma, Abel Ferrera, and Fran Drescher.
Supreme is expected to make a splash in limited release the weekend before its December 25th wide bow. It certainly could and most likely will play better on the coasts. However, strong reviews (94 RT, 91 Metacritic) and Chalamet’s presence might propel the assumed Best Picture nominee to solid stateside earnings.
I would expect this to reach mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday (Dec 26-28) with mid 20s million when counting the holiday.
Marty Supreme opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Sony is banking on Anaconda mixing up a lot of box office dough when it debuts on Christmas Day. The high-concept comedy from Tom Gormican finds Paul Rudd and Jack Black, fresh off A Minecraft Movie, attempting to remake the 1997 cult favorite feature of the same name that starred Jennifer Lopez, Ice Cube, Owen Wilson, and Jon Voight. The supporting players in this meta experience include Steve Zahn, Thandiwe Newton, Daniela Melchior, and Selton Mello.
Younger viewers may not be overly familiar with the source material. However, the PG-13 rating and comedic heavyweights should help push this to a decent start. With Christmas on a Thursday (that hasn’t occurred since 2014), crunching the numbers is a little tricky. A four-day rollout near $30 million is doable though I’ll go with low to mid teens for the traditional weekend and low 20s when counting the holiday.
Anaconda opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)
Hollywood is hoping for merry pre-Christmas tidings with Avatar: Fire and Ash in position to rule the charts. There’s other potential new gifts for multiplexes in the form of psychological thriller The Housemaid and the double animated offerings of biblical tale David and fourquel The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. You can locate my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
The first two Avatar features from newly minted billionaire James Cameron each grossed $2B+ worldwide. Fire looks to keep up pace. I have it under $100 million for its first stateside weekend but with about $36million less than 2022 predecessor The Way of Water.
Placement for slots 2-4 could be unpredictable. Based on a buzzy bestseller, The Housemaid with Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried has breakout potential and should serve as shrewd counter programming from blue creatures and family fare. I have it in second.
Faith-based crowds could cause David to top SpongeBob. I have the former in the low 20s with the latter in mid to higher teens. Both look to debut decently and hold impressively over Christmas. Current champ Zootopia 2 should follow in an animated bottom heavy top 5.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $98 million
2. The Housemaid
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
3. David
Predicted Gross: $20.8 million
4. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
5. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
Box Office Results (December 12-14)
Zootopia 2 returned to rule the charts with $25.8 million in its third frame, a bit ahead of my $23.6 million call. The Disney sequel sits at $258 million domestically and has already topped $1 billion globally.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 dropped to second in its sophomore frame with $19.3 million. The 70% drop was, as expected, steep. However, it didn’t fall as far as my $15.7 million projection suggested. The horror sequel is near nine digits at $95 million.
Wicked: For Good was third with $8.5 million, in range with my $8.2 million prediction and it has conjured up $312 million in four weeks.
Hindi-language action pic Dhurandhar was #4 and I did not have it in the top 5. With $3.4 million, it had the highest per-screen-average of all features (nearly $10k per venue) and brought its earnings to $7.7 million after two weeks.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was fifth with only a 32% decline. With $2.3 million in its fifth weekend, the overall gross is $59 million. I also didn’t have it in the leading quintet.
That’s because I slightly overestimated Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution at $2.4 million and it made $2 million in sixth. The two-week take is $14 million.
Finally, poorly reviewed dramedy Ella McCay from veteran filmmaker James L. Brooks languished in seventh with $2 million. I was slightly a little more generous at $2.7 million.
It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.
Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.
Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
Based on the hugely successful 2022 bestseller by Freida McFadden, The Housemaid looks to clean up at the box office starting December 19th. Paul Feig, who’s dabbled in the genre (sorta) with A Simple Fabor and its sequel, directs with Sydney Sweeney in the title role alongside Amanda Seyfried. Costars include Brandon Sklenar, Michele Morrone, and Elizabeth Perkins.
The psychological thriller looks to offer a shrewd counter programming alternative to Avatar: Fire and Ash and family friendly holiday fare. While Sweeney has had a rough 2025 at multiplexes with Eden and Christy, familiarity with the source material should reverse her fortunes.
Tracking suggests low to mid 20s and that sounds about right.
The Housemaid opening weekend prediction: $21.9 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
Angel Studios is primed for another animated hit after The King of Kings performed well earlier this year with David on December 19th. The biblical musical is co-directed by Brent Dawes and Phil Cunningham. Phil Wickham, Brandon Engman, Asim Chaudhry, Mick Wingert, Will de Renzy-Martin, and Lauren Daigle provide voiceover work.
Timed for Christmas, David could slay in second place behind Avatar: Fire and Ash. In April, Angel’s aforementioned Kings capitalized on the Easter holiday period with a nearly $20 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Tracking for this is higher with faith-based crowds snatching up tickets already.
Perhaps some viewers will until the long Christmas weekend, but I still think low 20s is where this chapter begins.
David opening weekend prediction: $20.8 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
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