Michael Bay’s action-comedy Pain and Gain hits theaters this weekend and will attempt to nab the #1 spot over the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion, which grossed a very solid $38 million this weekend.

Pain and Gain stars Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who have been omnipresent at the multiplexes in recent months. Wahlberg had a monster hit last summer with Ted and a considerable box office disappointment with January’s crime drama Broken City. The Rock, meanwhile, has been very busy. In February, it was the mid-size hit Snitch. In March, the G.I. Joe sequel. Pain and Gain for April. And for May, it’s the sixth installment in the Fast and Furious franchise.

Director Bay is mostly known for gargantuan budgeted action spectacles like Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, and the Transformers films. Pain and Gain comes with a relatively tiny $25 million budget so its highly likely to be profitable.

The combo of Wahlberg and Johnson could bring out the male and female audience. The trailers have been decent. There is, of course, still competition for the male audience with Oblivion and the female audience with this weekend’s other new entry The Big Wedding. 

Pain and Gain has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. Anything over its $25 million budget for an opening weekend would be terrific. Anything below $16-17 million would be considered fairly disappointing. I’m going a little closer to the high end.

Will my predicted opening weekend gross be enough to vault it to #1? You’ll have to wait until Wednesday for my Top 5 predictions, but my prediction here is:

Pain and Gain opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million

Later this evening, my forecast for the other opener this weekend, The Big Wedding.

The science fiction thriller Oblivion starring Tom Cruise easily took the #1 spot at the box office this weekend and managed to outdo my expectations. Oblivion gave Cruise his fifth highest opening of all time, earning $37 million (above my $32.8M projection). This is good news for the star, whose box office track record has been spotty as of late. While the fourth Mission: Impossible was a huge blockbuster in 2011, recent titles Valkyrie and Jack Reacher were only mid-size performers, while Knight and Day and Rock of Ages were straight up disappointments.

One cause for concern for Oblivion: it earned a weak B- Cinemascore grade. With Pain and Gain opening next weekend to attract the male audience and Iron Man 3 around the corner in two weeks, long term prospects for Oblivion are questionable.

Last weekend’s champ 42 slipped to second with $17.7 million, a bit below my $19.7M projection. The Jackie Robinson story has amassed an impressive $54 million and looks assured to cross the $100 million mark.

Third place went to The Croods with $9.2 million (higher than my $8M projection). Box office dud Scary Movie V held up barely better in its sophomore weekend than I predicted with $6.1 million (I said $5.7M).

Finally, the expanded roll out of the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime drama The Place Beyond the Pines didn’t match my expectations. I predicted it would be #4 with $6.4 million. It only managed a #6 opening with $4.9 million. This allowed G.I. Joe: Retaliation to place fifth with $5.7 million.

Tomorrow on the blog – I’ll have my prediction up for Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain, starring Mark Wahlberg and The Rock, as well as the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. Those predictions will also be posted on http://www.boxofficeace.com, which you need to visit if you haven’t already. Stay tuned, my friends!

**Blogger’s Note: This post has been updated on the evening of Thursday, April 18th to reflect my weekend prediction for The Place Beyond the Pines, which expands to over 1500 theaters tomorrow. I was not aware of that wide a count until this evening and my predictions reflects its expansion and predicted inclusion in the Top Five for this weekend.

Only one new wide release this weekend and it’s a major one – the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Oblivion. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my prediction for the film, which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/04/15/oblivion-box-office-prediction/

With no new offerings this weekend, that only leaves the question of how holdovers will maintain. And the news is probably very good for last weekend’s champ, 42. The Jackie Robinson biopic had a higher than expected opening at $27.5 million last weekend. With a remarkable A+ Cinemascore grade, I look for the picture to hold up quite well in its sophomore weekend. And, frankly, moviegoers may simply be in the mood for something uplifting after this difficult week.

The same cannot be said for Scary Movie V, which bombed last weekend with an embarrassing $14.2 million debut. A hefty drop looks to be in order.

The Place Beyond the Pines with Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling has been performing well in limited release. This weekend, it expands to over 1500 screens and has an excellent shot at entering the Top Five.

Finally, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation should experience similar declines to what they’ve experienced in recent weekends.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Oblivion

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million

2. 42

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 28%)

3. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. The Place Beyond the Pines

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

5. Scary Movie V

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)

As always, updates will be posted this weekend!

Oblivion marks the sole new wide-release title opening this weekend. The sci-fi thriller from Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski and starring Tom Cruise, Oblivion looks to be a real test of the star’s current box office power.

A little history. From the early 90s through the early part of the last decade, Tom Cruise was arguably the most bankable actor in Hollywood. During a lengthy time period, he starred in blockbuster after blockbuster, from the Mission: Impossible flicks to The Firm to A Few Good Men to Jerry Maguire to Minority Report to War of the Worlds and more.

Cruise’s box office history has been more checkered lately. While 2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was a smash hit, his action comedy Knight and Day with Cameron Diaz was a disappointment. Other recent vehicles such as Valkyrie and December’s Jack Reacher were mid-size hits, not blockbusters.

Oblivion has the advantage of having the weekend to itself as far as new releases. It is worth noting that the current #1, 42, had a bigger than expected opening and is likely to have a robust second weekend, which could slightly eat into Oblivion‘s debut.

Reviews so far for Oblivion have been pretty solid and the trailers are decent. With a reported price tag of $120 million, Universal Pictures is certainly keeping their fingers crossed. There’s no doubt that Cruise is the main attraction here. The picture co-stars Morgan Freeman and Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, but the story here is whether Cruise still has the ability to headline a huge opening when not playing Ethan Hunt.

So what’s the range on what I believe Oblivion could open at? I think the high water mark could be as much as $50 million. A safer estimate would be around $40 million. Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical. As mentioned, there’s been nothing really wrong with the marketing campaign, but I’m just not so sure this will reach those lofty numbers. Anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be looked at as a considerable letdown. By the way, Oblivion is opening on a massive 3900+ screens.

Cruise is simply not the draw he used to be. It’s certainly feasible that Oblivion could gross $40 million or over and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going on the lower end of the spectrum, though and will predict:

Oblivion opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million

As always, I’ll be back on Wednesday with full Top Five predictions for the weekend, as the aforementioned 42 should hold up quite well in its second frame.

On a brief personal note, I’m writing this post while taking a break from being glued to the TV set this Monday night. Needless to say, my thoughts and sympathies go out to the great people of Boston this evening.

The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 scored an impressive opening atop the box office this weekend, grossing $27.4 million. This is slightly higher than my $24.7M projection. The news gets even better for the pic: it received a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, meaning audiences are clearly loving it. Its long-term prospects look quite positive and I would expect small drop-offs in the next couple of weekends.

All positive stuff with 42… not so much for Scary Movie V. As the Die Hard franchise showed just a couple of months ago, the fifth time is not exactly the charm for franchises lately and that held true for the Scary Movie series. While the two previous installments both grossed over $40 million in their opening weekend, #5 struck out with only $14.1 million, below my $22.6M estimate. This is likely the nail in the coffin for the 13 year old series or it may be relegated to straight-to-DVD status from now on.

Numbers 3-6 played out pretty much as expected among holdovers. The Croods placed third with $13.1 million (a bit below my $14.3M projection), G.I. Joe: Retaliation was fourth with $10.8 million (my prediction: $10.8M… bam), last weekend’s winner The Evil Dead dropped far to fifth with $9.4 million (I projected $9.1M), and the Jurassic Park re-release was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $8.8M… bam again). Not too shabby.

The Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines expanded its theater count and grossed a solid $3.8 million, slightly above my $3.3M projection. Another expanded title, Danny Boyle’s Trance, didn’t fare as well with a meager $896,000, below my $1.9M projection.

Be sure to check back tomorrow for my projection on next weekend’s big release, the sci-fi thriller Oblivion with Tom Cruise. And don’t forget to check out www.boxofficeace.com, the new website that I’m pleased to be a part of. You can actually find all my box office predictions for 2013 on that great new site!

Two high-profile films open at the box office this weekend, along with two other talked-about flicks expanding their theater counts. We may well see a real battle for the #1 spot between the newbies: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 and the fifth installment in the Scary Movie franchise. Then we have the expansions of two well-reviewed pictures: Danny Boyle’s thriller Trance and The Place Beyond the Pines starring Ryan Gosling and Bradley Cooper. Added to the mix: the second frame of last weekend’s champ The Evil Dead, the third weekend of G.I. Joe, and fourth weekend for The Croods. Oh, and the second weekend of the Jurassic Park re-release. Can you say busy weekend?

The baseball drama 42 focuses on the career of the legendary Jackie Robinson, with Chadwick Boseman as the title character and Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey. The pic has been well-publicized, especially during the NCAA basketball championship. Its release coinciding with the start of baseball season certainly can’t hurt. Less than two years ago, another baseball drama Moneyball opened to a solid $19 million. I believe 42 has the potential to go beyond that number. Its ceiling could be as high as $30 million, but I’m projecting a gross in the mid 20s.

Scary Movie V is a tough one. It’s been seven long years since the fourth installment of the successful franchise. The third film opened to an astonishing $48 million and #4 earned a fantastic $40 million opening. Starring tabloid legends Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and Katt Williams, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this film series time has come and gone. However, it may be foolish to underestimate its potential. That leaves a real quandary… I believe Scary Movie V could shock us all and having an opening similar to its predecessors. That would mean it easily opens #1, most likely. But I’m going to go the opposite direction and predict that father time has caught up with the franchise.

Aforementioned critical hits The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance expand to approximately 450 and 400 theaters, respectively. The two films could post solid per-screen averages that will help decide how much further they expand. To give you an idea of relation to screen openings, both 42 and Scary Movie are opening on around 3000 screens.

The Evil Dead scared up a very impressive $26 million opening last weekend. It also earned a dismal C+ Cinemascore average. Horror flicks tend to drop big anyway and Dead should follow suit. The Jurassic Park re-release posted a good $18 million opening for fourth place. A drop of at least 45-55% seems likely. And last weekend’s #2 and #3 G.I. Joe Retaliation and The Croods should swap places. With their percentage drops, this will likely cause The Croods to stay put in third place.

And with all that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. 42

Predicted Gross: $24.7 million

2. Scary Movie V

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

3. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. The Evil Dead

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. Jurassic Park 3D

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

With their openings in a low number of venues, I’ll predict $3.3 million for The Place Beyond the Pines and $1.9 million for Trance.

And there’s your predictions. Check back through the weekend for updates and Sunday for final numbers!

The Evil Dead remake scared up some very solid box office numbers this weekend, opening well beyond my prediction. Dead earned $25.7 million, above my $19.8M projection. The Sam Raimi produced horror flick has a budget of only approximately $15 million. A sequel has already been greenlit. One minor concern for the studio: Dead received a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating audiences didn’t really like what they saw (critics were much kinder). Horror titles generally experience significant drop-offs in the second weekend and the same should be expected here.

Holdovers G.I. Joe: Retaliation and The Croods were close for second and third earning $20.8 and $20.6 million, above my $18.7M and $18.2M projections, respectively. Joe dropped only 49%, holding up considerably better than G.I. Joe: Rise of the Cobra, which dropped 59% in its sophomore frame in 2009.

The 20th anniversary re-release of Spielberg’s Jurassic Park also exceeded my expectations with a strong $18.6 million. I predicted only $12.8M. Finally, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor held up slightly better than my projection with $10 million in its second weekend (I estimated $8.9M).

In summation, this was a weekend where everything out there did better than I thought (an encouraging sign for the studios). Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s box office predictions, when the Jackie Robinson biopic 42, Scary Movie V, and the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines all open in wide release. Stay tuned!

The Easter box office weekend went mostly as expected, with G.I. Joe: Relation opening on top with a solid gross of $51 million, just above my $49.5M projection. The sequel to the 2009 film posted good numbers, even though it’s unlikely to match the $150 million domestic gross of its predecessor.

Dreamworks animated The Croods dropped from the top spot to second, as expected. It earned $26.7 million, slightly lower than my $29.3M estimate.

Opening in third, as predicted, was Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor. The picture gave Perry his best non-Madea opening of all time, grossing an impressive $21.6 million, above my $19.2M projection. Apparently, unless the name of the movie is Alex Cross, Perry still has a lot of clout at the multiplex.

In fourth, Olympus Has Fallen grossed $14.1 million in its sophomore weekend. I incorrectly guessed the action thriller would not fall over 50% and predicted a $16.8 million weekend. The film dropped 53%. Still, Olympus is a hit, giving star Gerard Butler his first successful pic in quite some time.

The bad news of the weekend fell to The Host, based on Twilight author Stephanie Meyer’s book. I was actually pretty low on my prediction compared to other analysts, predicting a $15.7 million opening weekend gross. The Host bombed, managing a meager $10.6 million. With a discouraging “B-” Cinemascore grade, there’s no way for the studio to spin it: The Host is a dud. With that bad of an opening, the film only managed a sixth place debut (I predicted fifth) and Oz The Great and Powerful got the five spot with $11.7 million.

Be sure to check back this week on the blog for next weekend’s projections, when the horror remake The Evil Dead and the 20th anniversary re-release of Jurassic Park open. Stay tuned!