Last summer, Bad Moms was a breakout comedy that earned $23 million in its first weekend and went on to gross $113 million domestically. STXfilms has wasted no time in capitalizing with holiday themed sequel A Bad Moms Christmas, which opens next Wednesday. Mila Kunis, Kristen Bell, and Kathryn Hahn are back and this time around it’s their moms joining the mix in the form of Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines, and Susan Sarandon. Jon Lucas and Scott Moore are back handling directorial duties.
The quick turn-around on this follow-up likely means sequelitis will not creep in. Christmas could well serve as smart counter programming for females to the weekend’s giant release that is Thor: Ragnarok. The Wednesday debut will also give it a bit of a head start.
Due to the five-day roll out, the sequel may not quite match the $23 million achieved in its predecessor’s opening weekend. Yet it may get over that number in the Wednesday to Sunday earnings. I’ll estimate a high teens to low 20s premiere for the traditional weekend with mid to high 20s for the entire frame.
A Bad Moms Christmas opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million (Friday to Monday), $26.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The first week of November should kick off in grand fashion for Disney/Marvel as Thor: Ragnarok looks to (yes) hammer all competition. The third installment in the franchise that began in 2011 and continued in 2013, Chris Hemsworth returns as the title character and he’s got his Avenger friend Hulk (Mark Ruffalo) alongside him. Tom Hiddleston returns as fan favorite Loki as well as series regulars Anthony Hopkins and Idris Elba with Cate Blanchett, Jeff Goldblum, and Karl Urban joining the party. Taika Waititi directs.
The reported $180 million production comes four years after the second installment, Thor: The Dark World. In that time frame, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has expanded greatly with all the players set to appear in next summer’s third Avengers picture Infinity War. Reviews for Rangarok suggest it’s the best of the trio with a lighter and more fun tone. It stands at an impressive 98% on the Tomato meter.
2011’s Thor opened to $65 million and its sequel improved upon that performance with $85 million. Their respective domestic tallies were $181 and $206 million. It seems likely that part 3 will continue that upward trajectory. The Thor series is not quite in the realm of what Captain America has accomplished and the third entry in that franchise (last year’s Civil War) was essentially the third Avengers flick, which propelled it to a $179 million premiere.
This is the 17th pic in the MCU and it looks quite possible it will be the 8th to cross the century mark in its opening weekend. I don’t have it getting quite as high as Spider-Man: Homecoming ($117 million) got over the summer, but it should continue the trend of opening with roughly $20 million than its predecessor.
Thor: Ragnarok opening weekend prediction: $107.6 million
For my A Bad Moms Christmas prediction, click here:
Before an onslaught of high-profile November titles hit the market, October should close out rather quietly at the box office in this Halloween weekend. There are three new entries making their wide debuts: continuation of the Saw franchise Jigsaw, the Matt Damon starring/George Clooney directed crime comedy Suburbicon, and Miles Teller war drama Thank You for Your Service. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions posts on each here:
There are numerous factors that may contribute to this weekend being a slow one. The last frame of October is typically pretty ho-hum regardless. There’s also the matter of a little Netflix show called Stranger Things premiering that could divert eyeballs onto the small screen and not the large one.
The seven year lay-off between Saw pictures could cause a muted debut for Jigsaw. Its number should still be enough to nab the #1 spot, however. Boo 2! should slip to second. It’s worth noting that the original Boo dropped just 39% in its sophomore outing last year over the same Halloween weekend. I have this dipping just a bit more.
I’m not expecting much from Suburbicon or Service and they could end up in a close race with the second weekend of Geostorm (which I expect to have a big drop).
Bottom line: Thor: Ragnarok and A Bad Moms Christmas should awaken the charts when November comes and here are my top 5 projections for this weekend:
1. Jigsaw
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
2. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million (representing a drop of 42%)
3. Suburbicon
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. Geostorm
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 60%)
5. Thank You for Your Service
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (October 20-22)
As expected, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2! A Madea Halloween topped the charts with $21.2 million, a tad under my $22.6 million prediction. It falls about $7 million short of its predecessor one year ago, but marks the sixth Madea feature to open #1.
Geostorm ranked highest among the five debuts with $13.7 million, above my $11.2M projection. However, with its massive reported $120 million budget, this is a serious flop for Warner Bros.
Happy Death Day dropped to third with $9.3 million, below my $11.8M take to bring its two-week total to $40 million. With only a $5 million budget, this is quite the cash cow for Blumhouse.
Blade Runner 2049 was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. In weekend #3, it earned $7.3 million to bring its disappointing tally to $74 million.
Opening in fifth was the firefighter drama Only the Brave with a meager $6 million, which is on the low-end of expectations and well below my generous $10 million projection.
The Snowman with Michael Fassbender got a chilly reception from audiences in 8th place with just $3.3 million, way below my $8 million forecast.
Lastly, Same Kind of Different as Me flopped in 12th place, opening to $2.5 million. I was right on target with my $2.6 million estimate.
Based on a true story detailed in David Finkel’s 2013 novel, war drama ThankYouforYourService is in theaters next weekend. Miles Teller, Haley Bennett, Beulah Koale, and Amy Schumer (in a change of pace role) Amy Schumer are among the cast.
The debut of TV director Jason Hall, ThankYou could face an uphill battle at the box office. The late October release doesn’t inspire much confidence. While this genre has certainly had breakout hits like AmericanSniper and LoneSurvivor, this tale of three soldiers returning from Iraq probably won’t even reach double digits.
I’ll say this could go as low as $4 million, but I’ll predict it manages a bit above that.
ThankYouforYourService opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
There’s an impressive amount of talent in front of and behind the camera in Suburbicon, opening next weekend. Yet it may not be enough to prevent it from becoming a flop.
George Clooney directs the 1950s set crime comedy with a script from the Coen Brothers and a cast led by Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac. Before its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the pic was looked at as a potential awards contender. Then the reviews happened. Critical reaction hasn’t been too kind and it sits at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The final weekend of October (unless you’re talking horror flicks) isn’t traditionally fertile ground for newcomers. With muted buzz at best, I believe Suburbicon will have trouble even reaching double digits.
Suburbicon opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
For seven years in gruesome clockwork fashion every October, the Saw franchise unleashed a new entry that began in 2004 and ended in 2010. After seven years of dormancy, it’s back next weekend with Jigsaw. The Lionsgate release comes from directors Michael and Peter Spierig with Tobin Bell returning as the title character and a cast of relative unknowns.
In 2004, the first Saw pic impressed critics and audiences alike and quickly turned into a sleeper hit. Sequels II-V all subsequently posted low 30s openings before installment VI stopped the gravy train with a $14.1 million debut and $27 million overall gross (all series lows). The seventh pic, Saw 3D in 2010, bounced back a bit with a $22 million debut and $45 million total.
After such a lengthy break, will sequelitis sink in? The answer is probably yes. We have seen these significant layoffs in the genre hurt titles such as Scream 4 and Blair Witch. Additionally, the teens that frequent these pics may not have as much familiarity with the franchise due to the hiatus.
I’ll predict Jigsaw barely manages to avoid a series low premiere with a debut in the $14-$16 million range.
Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.
Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.
We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo2! AMadeaHalloween, firefighter drama OnlytheBrave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller TheSnowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I don’t have Boo2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.
It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ HappyDeathDay scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.
OnlytheBrave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and TheSnowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.
There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature SameKindofDifferentasMe with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Boo2! AMadeaHalloween
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
2. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for HappyDeathDay, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and GetOut having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.
BladeRunner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.
Jackie Chan’s TheForeigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.
It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.
TheMountainBetweenUs rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!
Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).
Next weekend we will find out if Geostorm is a direct hit or disaster at the box office… or somewhere in the middle. The disaster pic marks the directorial debut of Dean Devlin, known most for producing efforts from Roland Emmerich, including Stargate,Independence Day and its sequel, and 1998’s Godzilla. Gerard Butler headlines a cast that features Ed Harris, Abbie Cornish, Jim Sturgess, Andy Garcia, and Richard Schiff.
The film was originally scheduled by Warner Bros for release over a year and a half ago. That kind of delay usually doesn’t inspire confidence. There are also movies debuting against it that could siphon some audience away, including Only the Brave and The Snowman.
I’ll predict Geostorm doesn’t even reach the teens for a muted start.
Geostorm opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (10/18/17): I am revising my prediction for The Snowman from $10.8 million down to $8 million
Next weekend, Universal Pictures will find out whether The Snowman gets a hot or icy reception at the box office. The thriller is based on a bestseller and stars Michael Fassbender as a detective chasing a serial killer who goes by the title. Tomas Alfredson, maker of critically acclaimed pics Let the Right One In and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, directs. The supporting cast includes Rebecca Ferguson, Charlotte Gainsbourg, J.K. Simmons, Toby Jones, Chloe Sevigny, James D’Arcy, and Val Kilmer.
While the director’s previous efforts have met with critical approval, reviews for this aren’t so good. It stands at just 27% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Additionally, there are other pics opening directly against it that could compete for an adult crowd like Only the Brave and Geostorm.
The marketing has attempted to stress a horror vibe, so it’s only hope could be genre fans coming out. That said, I’ll estimate this just manages to reach double digits for a rather cold opening.
The Snowman opening weekend prediction: $8 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
OnlytheBrave opens next weekend and it stands the best shot at being the second highest grosser of the five newbies hitting screens after Boo2! AMadeaHalloween. Joseph Kosinski, director of Tron: Legacy and Oblivion, is behind the lens for this true-life action/drama focused on a crew taking on devastating wildfires. Josh Brolin, Miles Teller, Jeff Bridges, James Badge Dale, Taylor Kitsch, Jennifer Connelly, and Andie MacDowell are among the cast.
There will some competition for adults and action fans with premieres like TheSnowman and Geostorm. However, Brave could have a minor leg up with its solid reviews and the unfortunate timeliness of its storyline.
I’ll say a debut at $10 million is probable.
OnlytheBrave opening weekend prediction: $10 million
For my Boo2! AMadeaHalloween prediction, click here:
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