While his Stranger Things costars Caleb McLaughlin and David Harbour provide voiceover work for Goat next weekend, Joe Keery is part of the cast for horror comedy Cold Storage. Opening February 13th, Jonny Campbell directs with a script from veteran scribe David Koepp. Besides Keery, Georgina Campbell, Sosie Bacon, Vanessa Redgrave, Lesley Manville, and Liam Neeson appear.
With solid reviews thus far, Storage will attempt to stake its claim among numerous competitors debuting over the Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. It might have a tricky time finding its niche. Outside of some franchise stalwarts, mixing these two genres is a risky gambit.
I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast. My hunch is it doesn’t even reach mid single digits over the three or four-day premiere.
Cold Storage opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $3.3 million (Friday to Monday)
Thor, Storm, Hulk, and Joan Baez populate the cast of Bart Layton’s thriller Crime 101 out February 13th. Looking to serve as counterprogramming to Wuthering Heights and Goat during the Valentine’s/President’s Day long weekend, the Amazon MGM production stars Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Barry Keoghan, Monica Barbaro, Corey Hawkins, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nick Nolte, and Halle Berry.
Originally slated for release last year, 101 is the type of project that just as easily could’ve premiered via streaming. A worst case scenario would be a debut below $10 million. However, movies tend to exceed expectations and not underwhelm during this particular weekend.
I am taking the over and projecting a three-day in the low teens with a couple million extra when counting Monday.
Crime 101 opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $15.2 million (Friday to Monday)
Sony Pictures Animation hopes for Goat to be golden when it opens over President’s Day weekend. The sports comedy is directed by Tyree Dillihay with Stranger Things star Caleb McLaughlin voicing the title creature who dreams of playing pro ball. Other performers providing behind the mic contributions include Gabrielle Union, real life ball champ Stephen Curry, Nicola Coughlan, David Harbour, Jenifer Lewis, Aaron Pierre, Andrew Santino, Jelly Roll, and Jennifer Hudson.
Goat takes place over the NBA All-Star weekend and it has been promoted heavily on ESPN during games. The studio is hoping parents take their kiddos before the nighttime activities. It could be a decent marketing move considering it’s the sole pic seeking families in a weekend with new material catering to grown-ups.
I’m thinking that means a Friday to Sunday gross in the mid 20s with around $30 million over the four-day.
Goat opening weekend prediction: $26.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $30.4 million (Friday to Monday)
Wuthering Heights (stylized as “Wuthering Heights”) looks to have a commanding #1 debut over a crowded President’s Day weekend beginning February 13th. Loosely adapting Emily Brontë’s 1847 novel, the tawdry romantic drama marks the third directorial of Emerald Fennel behind Promising Young Woman and Saltburn. Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi headline with a supporting cast including Hong Chau, Shazad Latif, Alison Oliver, Martin Clunes, and Ewan Mitchell.
This could be seen as Robbie’s first majorly visible role since her 2023 phenomenon Barbie. Last year’s A Big Bold Beautiful Journey was barely marketed by Sony with poor word-of-mouth and reviews. Elordi has been on viewers’ radar with his Oscar-nominated turn in Netflix’s Frankenstein.
With that star power, familiar source material, and encouraging buzz, I suspect Heights could climb above current forecasts which are already rosy. The shrewdly timed release with Valentine’s Day falling on a Saturday could guarantee a large female turnout and plenty may bring their mates along for the journey. I’m going with a three-day in the mid to high 50s and a low 60s four-day
Wuthering Heights opening weekend prediction: $55 million (Friday to Sunday); $62.1 million (Friday to Monday)
Don’t count on a super weekend at the box office as horror sequel The Strangers – Chapter 3 and Kevin James headlined dramedy Solo Mio compete with the dog days of the season and the Super Bowl. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:
I don’t see either title toppling Send Help in its second weekend. The Sam Raimi pic had a better than expected start (more on that below) and should see a drop in the low to mid 50s.
In third position, I have Solo edging Strangers in a close race for (non) bragging rights. That said, either could over or underperform.
After another better than anticipated debut, Melania should see a smaller sophomore decline than Iron Lung. That’s with a caveat that the doc about the First Lady might be more front-loaded than my estimate.
Here’s how I see the high five shaking out:
1. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
2. Iron Lung
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
3. Solo Mio
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
4. The Strangers – Chapter 3
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
5. Melania
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Predictions (January 30-February 1)
As much of the nation dug out from a winter snowstorm, more of them headed to theaters than I figured. Three of the four newcomers easily surpassed my forecasts. Send Help, capitalizing on solid reviews, was tops with $19.1 million compared to my $13.5 million prediction. The B+ Cinemascore is promising for its genre though I still think it falls around 50% this coming weekend.
Gamer based Iron Lung was right behind in second with $18.1 million, blowing past my measly $8 million projection. This is widely anticipated to make the bulk of its cash right away. It is still a terrific gross given the reported $3 million price tag.
Melania also exceeded its range with $7.1 million as the political documentary played best between the coasts in third. I went lower at $4.2 million.
Holdovers held up well with Zootopia 2 actually gaining 12% over the previous weekend with $5.9 million. I incorrectly had it outside of my top 6. The ten-week tally is $409 million.
Avatar: Fire and Ash rounded out the top five with $5.6 million (I said $4.9 million). After seven weeks, it has amassed $386 million.
Jason Statham action thriller Shelter was not found by many fans in sixth with $5.5 million compared to my $6.9 million take.
Finally, sci-fi courtroom saga Mercy fell 58% and from 1st to 7th with $4.5 million, in line with my $4.7 million guesstimate. The two-week total is $19 million.
Embarking on his Italian honeymoon alone after being left at the altar, Kevin James stars in Solo Mio on February 6th. The dramedy is co-directed by siblings Chuck and Dan Kinnane with a supporting cast including Alyson Hannigan, Nicole Grimaudio, Kim Coates, and Jonathan Roumie.
An Angel Studios release, this is James’s first headlining theatrical vehicle in over a decade (think Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2). Most everything in between has gone the streaming route. Can Solo drive any traffic to theaters? With a reported budget of only $4 million, profitability should be achieved.
I’ll say mid single digits is where it lands though it could manage only lower single digits in a worst case scenario.
Solo Mio opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million
For my The Strangers – Chapter 3 prediction, click here:
The Strangers – Chapter 3 is (naturally) the fifth feature in the nearly two-decade old horror franchise and it opens February 6th. To add more context, it is the culmination of this specific trilogy in the series from director Renny Harlin. Chapter 1 arrived in 2024 with Chapter 2 dropping only four months ago. Madelaine Petsch, Gabriel Basso, Ema Horvath, and Richard Brake star.
In 2008, the first Strangers (as in very first) was a sleeper hit that made $20 million in weekend #1 and $52 million domestically. None of the three follow-ups have matched it. 2018’s The Strangers: Prey at Night barely topped $10 million out of the gate with just under $25 million stateside. Chapter 1 managed nearly $12 million and an overall tally of $35 million. Chapter 2 easily saw franchise lows with a $5.8 million start and $15 million total.
Diminishing returns could certainly continue. I see no valid argument why this would top its predecessor and I’ll put it about a million below.
The Strangers – Chapter 3 opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
Three new features could fill the top 3 slots to close out January and begin February. We have Sam Raimi’s horror thriller Send Help, video game based sci-fi pic Iron Lung, and Jason Statham’s latest action effort Shelter all seeking viewers. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
All of them have the potential to exceed my expectations, but I’m giving Send Help (with mostly impressive reviews) the edge with a gross in the low teens.
As for Lung and Shelter, I have them in a close race for the #2 position and both falling under $10 million. I’ll note that Lung‘s gamer fans and Statham’s previous grosses could suggest I’m underestimating.
Some might say for the same for Melania. Brett Ratner’s documentary about the First Lady is a question mark. I didn’t do an individual post for it. I’ll say $4.2 million and that would leave it outside the top 5.
After an unimpressive start, I look for Mercy to lose over half its audience with Avatar: Fire and Ash perhaps placing and Mercy in fifth. Here’s how I see it all shaking out:
1. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
2. Iron Lung
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. Shelter
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Mercy
Predicted Gross: $4.7 million
6. Melania
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (January 23-25)
Bad weather, Seahawks, Rams, Patriots, and Broncos contributed to a dismal weekend as Mercy with Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson did manage to become 2026’s first feature to hit #1. The poorly reviewed AI courtroom saga made $10.8 million compared to my $9.3 million prediction. Expect it to fade quickly.
Avatar: Fire and Ash, after five weeks in first, dropped to second with $6.4 million. I’ll note now that all holdovers experienced larger drops than I assumed. I had the James Cameron threequel at $9.8 million. The total is $377 million
Zootopia 2 was third with $5.3 million, under my $6.8 million call. The Disney sequel stands at $401 million after nine weeks.
The Housemaid was fourth with $3.9 million (I said $6.2 million) for a six-week tally of $115 million.
28 Years Later: The Bone Temple plummeted a massive 73% in its sophomore outing with $3.4 million. I was more generous at $5.5 million. At only $20 million in two weeks, it’s a dud despite impressive critical reaction.
Finally, Return to Silent Hill (another video game based offering) debuted in seventh with $3.2 million. It actually managed to exceed my $2.2 million projection.
Black Bear Pictures looks for action fans seek Shelter when it opens on January 30th. Jason Statham headlines with Ric Roman Waugh (putting out his second 2026 release following Greenland 2: Migration) directing. Costars include Bodhi Rae Breathnach, Bill Nighy, Naomi Ackie, and Daniel Mays.
With its leading man playing (you guessed it) a former assassin, Shelter would love to match the beginning grosses of his predecessors The Beekeeper ($16 million) and A Working Man ($15 million). That could be a tall order as competitors Send Help and Iron Lung could siphon away potential viewers.
This could certainly hit $10 million, but I’m going more mid to high single digits.
Based on a popular 2022 video game, sci-fi horror offering Iron Lung makes its way to theaters on January 30th. YouTuber Mark Fischbach (known best as Markiplier) makes his directorial debut and stars. The supporting cast includes Caroline Rose Kaplan, Seán McLoughlin, David Szymanski, and Troy Baker.
In a recent interview, the Lung maker confirmed that his film contains the most fake blood of any genre tale in history. The question is whether it will make real money? That’s a tricky one. Under a best case scenario, it could surpass the anticipated high single digits forecast and challenge Sam Raimi’s Send Help for the #1 spot.
I suspect Help could divert some attention away and that this will generally kick off in line with expectations.
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