Warner Bros is counting on moviegoers to walk down multiplex aisles when The Bride! opens March 6th. Maggie Gyllenhaal directs the gothic thriller based on The Bride of Frankenstein. Jessie Buckley and Christian Bale headline the odd romance. Costars include Peter Sarsgaard (Maggie’s husband), Annette Bening, Jake Gyllenhaal (Maggie’s brother), and Penélope Cruz.
With a reported $80 million budget, the studio is seeking lots of RSVPs. Buckley is likely on the precipice of an Oscar win for Hamnet with Bale as the monstrous “Frank”. I’m not convinced their star power equals an impressive gross. The Bride! faces challenges. Scream 7 will be in its sophomore weekend and still posting solid figures. I question the mainstream appeal of this based on trailers and TV spots. Most importantly, plenty of potential viewers might feel like they got their Frankenstein fix via Guillermo del Toro’s Best Picture nominated Netflix version just four months ago.
Familiarity with the source material could still propel this to a premiere in the low to mid teen. My gut says to take the under and that means a disappointing result just over $10 million.
The Bride! opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
On March 6th, Hoppers looks to jumpstart Disney/Pixar’s fortunes after the underwhelming Elio and before the anticipated summer juggernaut Toy Story 5. The animated sci-fi comedy marks the feature-length directorial debut from Daniel Chong. Voiceover contributors include Piper Curda, Bobby Moynihan, Jon Hamm, Kathy Najimy, Dave Franco, Eduardo Franco, Aparna Nancherla, Sam Richardson, Melissa Villaseñor, Isiah Whitlock Jr., Ego Nwodim, Vanessa Bayer, and Meryl Streep.
Two of the last three Pixar big screen offerings failed to reach $30 million in their opening weekends. While 2024’s Inside Out 2 surpassed $150 million in its premiere, original material struggled. 2023’s Elemental kicked off with $29 million though it legged out impressively with $154 million domestically overall. That was not the case with last summer’s Elio. It only earned $20 million initially and $72 million when all was said and done stateside.
Projections for Hoopers are all over the place. Depending on who you read, it could fail to launch in the low 20s or get to $50 million. With decent word-of-mouth, I am forecasting it gets to mid 30s.
Scream 7 looks to easily slash all competitors as the only wide release this weekend. The horror pic will attempt to set a franchise best start and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on it here:
In order to reach that milestone, 7 will need to build upon the $44 million earned by VI back in 2023. I’m estimating that it will indeed do so.
The rest of the top 5 is poised to be filled with holdovers. Goat and Wuthering Heights should each slip a spot to 2nd and 3rd in their third frames.
I Can Only Imagine 2 came in with far less than I imagined (more on that below). Even with an A+ Cinemascore grade, it might still decline in the mid to high 40s for a fourth place showing. Send Help could stay in fifth with a smaller percentage drop than current #4 Crime 101.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Scream 7
Predicted Gross: $47.6 million
2. Goat
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million
3. Wuthering Heights
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million
4. I Can Only Imagine 2
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
Box Office Results (February 20-22)
Animated Goat rose from 2nd to 1st in its sophomore outing with $16.8 million, a smidge past my $15.6 million prediction. The Sony sports tale has taken in $58 million thus far.
Wuthering Heights was second with $14 million, in range with my $13.2 million call. Falling a considerable 57%, Emerald Fennell’s doomed romance sits at $59 million after two weeks.
As mentioned, I Can Only Imagine 2 failed to bring in many fans of the 2018 original. It made $7.7 million, well below my generous $17.8 million forecast. That is less than half of what its predecessor made out of the gate.
Crime 101 plummeted 61% in weekend #2 with $5.5 million compared to my $7.1 million take. It has made $24 million overall.
Send Help rounded out the top 5 with $4.4 million (I said $4.8 million) for a four-week total of $55 million.
Scream 7 looks to set record high franchise noise when it debuts February 27th. Nearly 30 years into the series, Kevin Williamson (who penned the 1st, 2nd, and 4th editions) directs and cowrites. This is only his second behind the camera feature after 1999’s Teaching Mrs. Tingle. Jenna Ortega and Melissa Barrera, the headliners of parts V-VI, are MIA. However, Neve Campbell is back in action after missing the predecessor along with returnees Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, David Arquette, Matthew Lillard, Courtney Cox, and Roger L. Jackson (voicing Ghostface). Newcomers to the fold include Isabel May, Anna Camp, Michelle Randolph, Jimmy Tatro, Mckenna Grace, Asa Germann, Celeste O’Connor, Sam Rechner, Tim Simons, and Joel McHale.
After a decade in dormancy, the franchise was brought back with solid numbers in 2022. The fifth pic (simply titled Scream) took in just over $30 million opening weekend with an eventual $81 million domestic haul. Yet those premiere grosses fell short of 2 and 3 and the overall gross fell short of the first three flicks. Scream VI in 2023 (not adjusted for inflation) set series bests at a $44 million start and $108 million stateside.
With little competition at multiplexes and recent overperformances for the genre, I am leaning toward 7 being lucky. I suspect this might achieve another record number out of the gate.
Scream 7 opening weekend prediction: $47.6 million
Faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 looks to top the charts as the weekend’s only significant wide release and stands an excellent shot at doing so. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
The Lionsgate follow-up to the 2018 sleeper hit hopes to build upon the $17 million premiere that its predecessor made. I have it barely doing so though this will likely be more front-loaded than the original. That should be good enough to nab the #1 slot.
That might depend on the sophomore fall of the animated Goat which met and even slightly exceeded expectations over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. I am confident its second weekend dip will be much smaller than that of current champ of Wuthering Heights (more on its performance below). Goat should stay in second with Heights falling to third.
Crime 101 might lose about half its crowd in weekend #2 with Send Help rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I see it shaking out:
1. I Can Only Imagine 2
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
2. Goat
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Wuthering Heights
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Crime 101
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
Box Office Results (February 13-16)
As anticipated, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of Wuthering Heights with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi managed to place first. However, I took the over on it and certainly should’ve went under. It opened below forecasts with $32.8 million from Friday to Sunday and $37.5 million when counting Monday. That’s well below my generous respective predictions of $55 million and $62.1 million. With a B Cinemascore grade, look for it to fade rather quickly. I have it declining in the 60% range this weekend.
Goat was runner-up with a $27.2 million 3-day and $35.1 million 4-day. That’s on target and a bit superior than my calls of $26.7 million and $30.4 million (it had a better Monday that I figured). The future looks bright with its A Cinemascore.
Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth was a decent third at $14.2 million (Fri-Sun) and $16 million over the long frame. The thriller performed in range with my takes of $13.3 million and $15.2 million.
Sam Raimi’s Send Help was fourth after two weeks in 1st with $8.8 million (3-day) and $10.1 million (4-day), ahead of my $7.4 million and $8.2 million projections. The laudable three-week tally is $49 million.
Solo Mio with Kevin James had a sturdy hold in fifth with $6.3 million (3-day) and $7.2 million (4-day). I said $6.9 million and $7.5 million. The two-week total is $17 million.
Two other newcomers performed in line with and below my guesstimates. Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die from Gore Verbinski was 8th with $3.6 million (3-day) and $4.1 million (4-day) and I was right there at $3.5 million and $4 million.
Finally, horror comedy Cold Storage got a chilly reception in 14th with $966k from Fri-Sun and $1.1 million factoring in Monday. I was more hopeful at $1.7 million and $2 million.
The faith-based sequel I Can Only Imagine 2 arrives in multiplexes February 20th with Andrew Erwin returning to direct alongside Brent McCorkle. The Lionsgate production is the follow-up to 2018’s original which massively exceeded box office projections. John Michael Finley, Trace Adkins, and Dennis Quaid reprise their roles from 8 years back. Other cast members include Milo Ventimiglia, Sophie Skelton, Arielle Kebbel, and Sammy Dell.
In March of 2018, the first Imagine (centered on the band MercyMe) was forecasted for an opening weekend in the low to mid single digits. Yet it struck a chord with Christian filmgoers to the tune of a $17 million premiere. With a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, the overall domestic haul ballooned to $86 million.
Figuring out how the follow-up will do is tricky. A best case scenario could be another significant overperformance in the mid 20s or so. There’s also the distinct possibility that the OG Imagine caught lightning in a bottle and plenty of fans may not be clamoring for part 2. Under that scenario, the floor could $10 million.
My hunch is high teens though it probably won’t leg out as impressively as its predecessor.
I Can Only Imagine 2 opening weekend prediction: $17.8 million
In a weekend that includes Friday the 13th, Valentine’s Day, and President’s Day, Hollywood is hoping for luck, love, and a commanding amount of cash to wake up a sleepy box office. There are a handful of newcomers – romantic drama Wuthering Heights, animated sports tale Goat, action thriller Crime 101, sci-fi action comedy Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die, and horror comedy Cold Storage. Three of them are likely to hold the top 3 slots while the other two are unlikely to make the top 5. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Heights, Emerald Fennell’s loose adaptation of the Emily Brontë novel with Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, appears poised to dominate with a hefty female crowd (many of whom could bring along their significant others). My forecast is even higher than most with a three-day estimate in the mid 50s and four-day in the lower 60s.
Goat has the potential to exceed my projection with a sizable family audience. My long weekend prediction of just over $30 million would put it firmly in second. If it truly rises above expectations, it could challenge Heights if that film fails to match where I have it reaching.
Crime 101 with Chris Hemsworth should get in the teens for a third place showing based on decent word-of-mouth and the opportunity to reach a male demographic.
As for Good Luck with Sam Rockwell and Storage with Joe Keery, I have both falling short of the top five. They will compete for some of the same patrons and I’m not confident either will make a notable impact. For Luck, I’m going with $3.5 million from Friday to Sunday and $4 million when counting Monday. As for Storage, I’m calling for less with $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday) and $2 million (Friday to Monday).
Holdovers often see minimal declines over this particular holiday weekend and I have Send Help and Solo Mio in fourth and fifth and holding up well.
Here’s how I envision it shaking out:
1. Wuthering Heights
Predicted Gross: $55 million (3-day); $62.1 million (4-day)
2. Goat
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (3-day); $30.4 million (4-day)
3. Crime 101
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million (3-day); $15.2 million (4-day)
4. Send Help
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (3-day); $8.2 million (4-day)
5. Solo Mio
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (3-day); $7.5 million (4-day)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
Sam Raimi’s Send Help managed two weeks in a row atop the charts over a sluggish frame with $9 million, in range with my $8.6 million prediction. The critically appreciated black comedy has made $34 million in its ten days of release.
Solo Mio was second and sparked a welcome return for Kevin James after a decade long absence from headlining on the silver screen. The Angel Studios dramedy posted a better than anticipated $7 million, ahead of my $5.2 million take.
Video gamed based Iron Lung was third in its sophomore outing with $6.7 million (I said $7.1 million) for a two-week tally of $31 million.
Stray Kids: The DominATE Experience, a concert film centered on the South Korean boy band, placed fourth with $5.6 million. I did not do an estimate for it and therefore had it omitted from the top 5.
Same goes for Luc Besson’s Dracula which bit off $4.4 million for a fifth place start. I had it making $3.5 million and outside of the top half of the chart.
The Strangers – Chapter 3 flopped in seventh with $3.4 million, under my $4.5 million guesstimate. I should’ve switched projections for this one and Dracula.
Finally, I gave too much credit to Melania in its second weekend. The doc about the First Lady fell 67% to tenth place with $2.3 million. I was more generous at $4.2 million.
Mixing sci-fi with action and comedy, Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die is out over the long Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend. It will try and carve its niche among a handful of newcomers. Gore Verbinski, known to many moviegoers as the maker of Pirates of the Caribbean entries 1-3, is behind the camera for the first time in nearly a decade since A Cure for Wellness. Sam Rockwell headlines with Haley Lu Richardson, Michael Peña, Zazie Beetz, Asim Chaudhry, Tom Taylor, and Juno Temple providing support.
Fun was initially screened at Fantastic Fest last fall and early reviews are fresh with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Despite the praise, this could face tough odds finding a significant audience. I do have it debuting slightly higher than Cold Storage which will compete for a similar demographic. However, getting to $5 million for over four-day might be a tall order.
Good Luck, Have Fun, Don’t Die opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $4 million (Friday to Monday)
While his Stranger Things costars Caleb McLaughlin and David Harbour provide voiceover work for Goat next weekend, Joe Keery is part of the cast for horror comedy Cold Storage. Opening February 13th, Jonny Campbell directs with a script from veteran scribe David Koepp. Besides Keery, Georgina Campbell, Sosie Bacon, Vanessa Redgrave, Lesley Manville, and Liam Neeson appear.
With solid reviews thus far, Storage will attempt to stake its claim among numerous competitors debuting over the Valentine’s/President’s Day frame. It might have a tricky time finding its niche. Outside of some franchise stalwarts, mixing these two genres is a risky gambit.
I have yet to see a theater count and that could alter my forecast. My hunch is it doesn’t even reach mid single digits over the three or four-day premiere.
Cold Storage opening weekend prediction: $1.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $2 million (Friday to Monday)
Thor, Storm, Hulk, and Joan Baez populate the cast of Bart Layton’s thriller Crime 101 out February 13th. Looking to serve as counterprogramming to Wuthering Heights and Goat during the Valentine’s/President’s Day long weekend, the Amazon MGM production stars Chris Hemsworth, Mark Ruffalo, Barry Keoghan, Monica Barbaro, Corey Hawkins, Jennifer Jason Leigh, Nick Nolte, and Halle Berry.
Originally slated for release last year, 101 is the type of project that just as easily could’ve premiered via streaming. A worst case scenario would be a debut below $10 million. However, movies tend to exceed expectations and not underwhelm during this particular weekend.
I am taking the over and projecting a three-day in the low teens with a couple million extra when counting Monday.
Crime 101 opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $15.2 million (Friday to Monday)
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