**Blogger’s Note: This post has been updated on the evening of Thursday, April 18th to reflect my weekend prediction for The Place Beyond the Pines, which expands to over 1500 theaters tomorrow. I was not aware of that wide a count until this evening and my predictions reflects its expansion and predicted inclusion in the Top Five for this weekend.
Only one new wide release this weekend and it’s a major one – the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Oblivion. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my prediction for the film, which can be found here:
With no new offerings this weekend, that only leaves the question of how holdovers will maintain. And the news is probably very good for last weekend’s champ, 42. The Jackie Robinson biopic had a higher than expected opening at $27.5 million last weekend. With a remarkable A+ Cinemascore grade, I look for the picture to hold up quite well in its sophomore weekend. And, frankly, moviegoers may simply be in the mood for something uplifting after this difficult week.
The same cannot be said for Scary Movie V, which bombed last weekend with an embarrassing $14.2 million debut. A hefty drop looks to be in order.
The Place Beyond the Pines with Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling has been performing well in limited release. This weekend, it expands to over 1500 screens and has an excellent shot at entering the Top Five.
Finally, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation should experience similar declines to what they’ve experienced in recent weekends.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $32.8 million
2. 42
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 28%)
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. The Place Beyond the Pines
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Scary Movie V
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)
The summer of 2013 is scheduled to bring us (you guessed it) 13 sequels for our viewing pleasure or displeasure. This group of pictures kick off my 2013 Summer Movie Preview, which officially kicks off in just over two weeks with the release of what could be the biggest sequel of the season.
I have broken down the 13 films in five different categories, so let’s begin, shall we?
The May Heavy Hitters
Iron Man 3 (May 3) is the first 2013 Summer Movie and it has a legitimate shot of being the season’s highest grossing title. Its two predecessors both grossed just over $300 million domestically. It’s also important to keep in mind that we saw Tony Stark in last year’s largest blockbuster, The Avengers, which earned an astonishing $623 million. Iron Man 3 gives us a new director for the franchise, Shane Black, who takes over the franchise from Jon Favreau. We also have a new villain, the Mandarin played by Gandhi himself, Ben Kingsley. Iron Man 3 could and likely will outgross installments #1 and #2.
Two weeks after Iron Man returns, Captain Kirk and Spock are back on May 17th for Star Trek Into Darkness. In the summer of 2009, the restart of the franchise earned deserved critical acclaim and earned a terrific $257 million domestically. The sequel could blast past that number. It’s worth noting that director J.J. Abrams will follow-up this picture up with a small indie movie currently referred to as Star Wars: Episode VII.
Only a week after Kirk and Spock return, we’ve got two high-profile sequels being released on the same day. May 24th brings the third installment of The Hangover franchise with Bradley Cooper, Zack Galifianakis, and Ed Helms back for more debauchery. The 2009 original made $277 million and the 2011 follow-up cashed in with $254 million. I would predict the third reaches past $200 million as well, but probably less than part 2.
The Hangover Part III opens against the sixth (yes, sixth!) entry of the Fast and the Furious franchise. The whole crew is back from Vin Diesel to Paul Walker to The Rock to Ludacris and so on. Fast and Furious 6 will attempt to match the numbers of predecessor Fast Five, which was the series highest grosser at $209 million.
It is very likely that the May sequels will represent four of the five highest earning sequels of this summer. All four could be in the Top Ten earners of the season. Moving on…
The Kiddie Sequels
Summer 2013 brings us plenty of family-friendly sequels. The highest profile (and what is pretty much assured a Top 5 grossing spot) is Monsters University, Pixar’s follow-up to 2001’s Monsters Inc. The original took in $255 million twelve years ago and, once again, the sequel has a great shot at surpassing that number. It opens June 21st.
Almost certain to be another major hit is the sequel to Despicable Me, with Steve Carell back. The original grossed an impressive $251 million in the summer of 2010 and this looks earn similar numbers. I confess I’ve never seen the first, even though a coworker of mine keeps insisting over and over again that I watch it. It’s out July 3rd.
The Smurfs 2, out July 31, looks to match the numbers of the 2011 original which grossed $142 million. I would venture to say that if you liked the first, you’ll probably like the second. Neil Patrick Harris returns to headline the cast. Also in it: Smurfs.
Last and most likely least (at least financially) is Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (August 7),the one totally live-action offering. It’s the sequel to 2010’s Percy Jackson&The Olympians: The Lightning Thief, which earned a solid but unspectacular $88 million. I’m not so sure the follow-up matches that number.
Eh
This category represents three titles that I’m simply not too excited about. I’m also predicting this trio is likely to earn less than the originals.
We begin with Grown Ups 2, reuniting Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, and Rob Schneider. The 2010 original amassed $162 million. Sandler’s been on a bit of a cold streak lately, with disappointments like Jack and Jill and last summer’s That’s My Boy. That may explain why this is coming out and while it’s virtually assured to cross the century mark, it might not be much over that. It’s out July 12th.
Red 2 reunites Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, and Helen Mirren and adds Anthony Hopkins and Catherine Zeta-Jones. The original action comedy made a surprising $90 million in 2010, but don’t be surprised to see this underperform. Red 2 is out July 19th.
300: Rise of an Empire (August 2) follows-up on the unexpected 2007 smash hit. There’s no original director Zack Snyder (he’ll have Man of Steel instead) or original star Gerard Butler to be found here. 300 made $210 million. This one likely won’t. NO OFFICIAL TRAILER YET.
The One That Might Get A Best Picture Nomination
That honor belongs to Before Midnight, the continuation of the romantic dramas starring Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy. 1995’s Before Sunrise and 2004’s Before Sunset each made only $5 million, but were critical darlings. This one could inch a bit higher and rapturous reviews could make it an Oscar contender. Out May 24th.
The One That Could Kick Ass
What else? Kick-Ass 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original, which earned only $48 million domestic upon release. Since then, it’s developed a cult following. The superhero spoof was a tremendous amount of fun and I’m greatly anticipating this one. Kick-Ass 2 is out August 16th and has an excellent shot at outgrossing its predecessor.
And there you have it – 13 summer sequels for 2013. In case you’re wondering, the 2014 Summer sequels are already piling up, with new entries in the Spider-Man, Planet of the Apes, X-Men, Jurassic Park, and Transformers franchises.
Stay tuned for my next 2013 Summer Movie Preview post where I’ll cover Superman and Wolverine’s return to the multiplex.
Oblivion marks the sole new wide-release title opening this weekend. The sci-fi thriller from Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski and starring Tom Cruise, Oblivion looks to be a real test of the star’s current box office power.
A little history. From the early 90s through the early part of the last decade, Tom Cruise was arguably the most bankable actor in Hollywood. During a lengthy time period, he starred in blockbuster after blockbuster, from the Mission: Impossible flicks to The Firm to A Few Good Men to Jerry Maguire to Minority Report to War of the Worlds and more.
Cruise’s box office history has been more checkered lately. While 2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was a smash hit, his action comedy Knight and Day with Cameron Diaz was a disappointment. Other recent vehicles such as Valkyrie and December’s Jack Reacher were mid-size hits, not blockbusters.
Oblivion has the advantage of having the weekend to itself as far as new releases. It is worth noting that the current #1, 42, had a bigger than expected opening and is likely to have a robust second weekend, which could slightly eat into Oblivion‘s debut.
Reviews so far for Oblivion have been pretty solid and the trailers are decent. With a reported price tag of $120 million, Universal Pictures is certainly keeping their fingers crossed. There’s no doubt that Cruise is the main attraction here. The picture co-stars Morgan Freeman and Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, but the story here is whether Cruise still has the ability to headline a huge opening when not playing Ethan Hunt.
So what’s the range on what I believe Oblivion could open at? I think the high water mark could be as much as $50 million. A safer estimate would be around $40 million. Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical. As mentioned, there’s been nothing really wrong with the marketing campaign, but I’m just not so sure this will reach those lofty numbers. Anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be looked at as a considerable letdown. By the way, Oblivion is opening on a massive 3900+ screens.
Cruise is simply not the draw he used to be. It’s certainly feasible that Oblivion could gross $40 million or over and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going on the lower end of the spectrum, though and will predict:
Oblivion opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million
As always, I’ll be back on Wednesday with full Top Five predictions for the weekend, as the aforementioned 42 should hold up quite well in its second frame.
On a brief personal note, I’m writing this post while taking a break from being glued to the TV set this Monday night. Needless to say, my thoughts and sympathies go out to the great people of Boston this evening.
The fifth installment in the Scary Movie series landed with a deafening thud at the box office this weekend, representing the biggest blow to a franchise since Kobe Bryant was injured a few days ago. Blogger’s note: for those who read this blog and really only follow the film world, Bryant is a professional basketball player who plays for a team in southern California.
It was expected to be a tight race between the two wide release titles this weekend – Scary Movie V and 42. Didn’t turn out that way – the well-reviewed baseball drama 42 surpassed most expectations with a terrific $27 million gross. Scary Movie V only managed a tepid $15 million.
Let’s put that in perspective, shall we? It had been seven long years since a Scary Movie. The third and fourth installments both grossed over $40 million in their opening weekends. Scary Movie V may struggle to make that much total in its domestic gross. Not good.
It is worth noting that the production budget for the film is reportedly only $20 million, so it will draw a profit. Still, perception is reality and its opening can be looked at only as a massive failure.
As you may recall, the Scary Movie franchise was started by a well-known comedic family. Keenan Ivory Wayans directed the first two and they featured both Marlon and Shawn Wayans. Shot for $19 million, the original was an unexpected box office smash in the summer of 2000 that grossed an astonishing $278 million worldwide.
Its success meant the immediate making of a sequel and Scary Movie 2 followed just a year later. It made a solid $141 million worldwide, though it was considered a slight disappointment in relation to its predecessor’s numbers. The first sequel also earned a considerable amount of scorn from critics who were much harsher on it as compared to the original.
A new team would take over for #3 and #4. David Zucker did the directing duties. He is the man partly responsible for the Airplane! and Naked Gun series. Different actors ranging from Charlie Sheen to Leslie Nielsen to Kevin Hart joined the mix. Released in 2003 and 2006, 3 and 4 were box office hits with grosses of $220 and $178 million, respectively.
What are my thoughts on the series? For lack of a better word – eh. I was never a huge fan of the original, truth be told. Don’t get me wrong – it’s got some truly funny moments. However, I never got over my main critique. Scary Movie is essentially a spoof of Scream, which itself is a horror movie spoof. I always felt Scream was so effective in sending up the slasher genre and that a “spoof” of Scream felt kind of unnecessary.
As for the sequels, they’re all watchable enough, but nothing special. I’d say Scary Movie 3 is probably the funniest overall of the sequels. I must admit I love the scene that spoofs the death of Mel Gibson’s wife in Signs, where Charlie Sheen must say good-bye to Denise Richards. That scene works well.
So what went wrong with Scary Movie V? The answer may be simple – it’s been seven damn years and audiences have moved on. It also had a rather strange marketing campaign, focusing on tabloid stars Charlie Sheen and Lindsay Lohan (who apparently are only in one scene). It never seemed likely that moviegoers were going to rush out to watch actors they enjoy watching more on TMZ.
In an ironic twist, Scary Movie V is only the second highest debuting horror spoof of the year (out of two). A Haunted House opened in January to a better than expected $18.8 million. The star of that picture? Marlon Wayans, veteran of the Scary franchise.
The fifth installment brought in a new director, Malcolm D. Lee, best known for making Undercover Brother with Eddie Griffin. That’s not saying much. The future of the Scary Movie franchise appears bleak at best. #5 really isn’t performing well enough to warrant a sixth. Perhaps the studio will bring in new talent to try and reinvigorate the series. Maybe the franchise will simply go the straight-to-DVD route from now on. Or this could truly be an obituary post for a once thriving film series that has now fallen by the wayside.
The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 scored an impressive opening atop the box office this weekend, grossing $27.4 million. This is slightly higher than my $24.7M projection. The news gets even better for the pic: it received a rare A+ Cinemascore grade, meaning audiences are clearly loving it. Its long-term prospects look quite positive and I would expect small drop-offs in the next couple of weekends.
All positive stuff with 42… not so much for Scary Movie V. As the Die Hard franchise showed just a couple of months ago, the fifth time is not exactly the charm for franchises lately and that held true for the Scary Movie series. While the two previous installments both grossed over $40 million in their opening weekend, #5 struck out with only $14.1 million, below my $22.6M estimate. This is likely the nail in the coffin for the 13 year old series or it may be relegated to straight-to-DVD status from now on.
Numbers 3-6 played out pretty much as expected among holdovers. The Croods placed third with $13.1 million (a bit below my $14.3M projection), G.I. Joe: Retaliation was fourth with $10.8 million (my prediction: $10.8M… bam), last weekend’s winner The Evil Dead dropped far to fifth with $9.4 million (I projected $9.1M), and the Jurassic Park re-release was sixth with $8.8 million (I said $8.8M… bam again). Not too shabby.
The Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime thriller The Place Beyond the Pines expanded its theater count and grossed a solid $3.8 million, slightly above my $3.3M projection. Another expanded title, Danny Boyle’s Trance, didn’t fare as well with a meager $896,000, below my $1.9M projection.
Be sure to check back tomorrow for my projection on next weekend’s big release, the sci-fi thriller Oblivion with Tom Cruise. And don’t forget to check out www.boxofficeace.com, the new website that I’m pleased to be a part of. You can actually find all my box office predictions for 2013 on that great new site!
As we enter the most exciting portion of The Masters tournament this weekend and hear debate from all corners of the sports world on whether Tiger should withdraw or not, let’s take a quick look at the history of golf in the film world.
I say quick look because, well, it’s a brief history. The two titles we probably think of most represent well-regarded comedies for two generations. Obviously, there’s 1980’s Caddyshack, one of the most quotable movies of all time.
For the next generation, it’s 1996’s Happy Gilmore with Adam Sandler and that classic golf course rumble with Bob Barker.
1996 also saw a generally well-liked golf movie with Kevin Costner, Rene Russo, and Don Johnson – Tin Cup. It’s a decent enough pic, though not particularly memorable.
And there’s another comedy – 2007’s Who’s Your Caddy? with Outkast rapper Big Boi. If this is your favorite golf comedy, I can’t help you.
Surprisingly, there’s yet to be a truly effective and successful drama about golf. Two examples that have tried have been met with mixed critical and audience reaction.
There’s Robert Redford’s The Legend of Bagger Vance starring Matt Damon and Will Smith. It was considered an Oscar contender prior to its release, but faltered when it opened with a weak $30 million gross. It managed only a weak 42% on Rotten Tomatoes.
And there was 2004’s Bobby Jones: Stroke of Genius starring Jesus himeslf, Jim Caviezel. This one came and went with no fanfare, grossing a terrible $2.7 million.
There’s certainly been plenty of quality dramatic pictures about football, baseball, basketball, hockey, and boxing. Think Any Given Sunday. Rudy. Field of Dreams. The Natural. Hoosiers. Miracle. Rocky. Raging Bull. The Fighter. Teen Wolf… OK, I went too far. But there’s yet to be that quintessential golf drama. Are you listening, Hollywood? The sport certainly has comedy covered though… Caddyshack is generally regarded as the funniest comedy about any sport.
Finally, if you started reading this post and are wondering why Jarhead and Three Kings haven’t been mentioned, those are “gulf” movies… I’m sorry.
I’m very pleased to announce to you a new website that just went live this morning (just a couple of hours ago):
boxofficeace.com
I’ll say it again if you didn’t hear me:
boxofficeace.com
This site has been started by the creators of moviemavericks.com – a great site that includes a podcast at the beginning of each week with box office predictions for the upcoming weekend openers. I encourage you to check out that site. It’s got some nifty stuff on it. Now back to:
boxofficeace.com
Here’s where I come in. As you’ll notice, my blog is linked on there, as well as some other fine sites that predict the box office every weekend. My box office opening predictions will be featured on the site each week. What’s the site again, Todd, you ask?
boxofficeace.com
This site I’m talking about…
boxofficeace.com
is an interactive box office predictions website. YOU (yes YOU) can go on and predict each week how you believe the new films opening each weekend will perform. So, for next weekend, take a crack at how you think Oblivion with Tom Cruise will do. And we’ll have Pain and Gain with Mark Wahlberg and The Rock (for his April movie) the following weekend. And then we get into the big summer movies with Iron Man 3, The Great Gatsby, Star Trek Into Darkness, The Hangover III, and Fast and Furious 6 (The Rock’s May movie). You can compete against me, the site’s creators, and others to see if you’re smarter than us on…
boxofficeace.com
As Trevor (one of the site’s co-creators) mentions, the site is a little bare right now. However, as people start interacting with their predictions, it should grow. My predictions for calendar year 2013 are all going to be uploaded very soon, so you can see how I did with past predictions for The Evil Dead, Oz the Great and Powerful, Olympus Has Fallen, and so on.
I encourage you to check out boxofficeace.com. It’s going to be a fantastic and fun site. And I’m on it, too!!
For movie enthusiasts looking for some seriously good laughs, I would like to turn your attention to a series of YouTube videos called Honest Trailers. Some very talented people have collaborated to show us a hilarious spin on various films and their flaws. These are the kinds of trailers the studios wouldn’t want you to see, but I’m sure glad someone was funny enough to think of this great idea.
What kind of pictures get the Honest Trailer treatment? Well, for starters, how about every installment of the Twilight franchise? Love how they point out the excessive use of voice-over and the pesky fact that Edward and Bella’s relationship is kind of super creepy if you really think about it.
The Hunger Games is mentioned in the Twilight trailer and it too gets the Honest Trailer treatment.
Some of our most beloved screen heroes are not spared – from James Bond…
to Batman…
to Spider-Man…
to Indiana Jones…
For the ladies, we’ve got some interesting takes on The Notebook…
and Titanic…
There are other laugh inducing trailers for The Avengers, Lord of the Rings, Prometheus, Jurassic Park, Les Miserables, Star Wars: The Phantom Menace and more.
So what should we expect the team behind Honest Trailers to spoof in the future? I have a feeling megahit Oz the Great and Powerful could be a candidate. It made a boatload of money, but certainly has its detractors. And there is no doubt this fall’s Hunger Games: Catching Fire will get its Honest Trailer. I’d love to see them take a crack at older titles like Independence Day or The Matrix. And a final request: M. Night Shymalan’s ridiculous The Happening.
I have never been one of those movie buffs who spends much time nitpicking errors or implausibilities. If the story works, a lot of that stuff falls by the wayside. Truth be told, the Honest Trailer folks have figured out a brilliant way to do it. Many of their subjects are solid movies. They even admit it in The Avengers and Dark Knight spots.
My personal fave so far? The Inception Honest Trailer. Great film, but equally great treatment here. It leaves us on a high note… seriously, why didn’t Michael Caine just take Leo DiCaprio’s damn kids overseas?
Two high-profile films open at the box office this weekend, along with two other talked-about flicks expanding their theater counts. We may well see a real battle for the #1 spot between the newbies: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 and the fifth installment in the Scary Movie franchise. Then we have the expansions of two well-reviewed pictures: Danny Boyle’s thriller Trance and The Place Beyond the Pines starring Ryan Gosling and Bradley Cooper. Added to the mix: the second frame of last weekend’s champ The Evil Dead, the third weekend of G.I. Joe, and fourth weekend for The Croods. Oh, and the second weekend of the Jurassic Park re-release. Can you say busy weekend?
The baseball drama 42 focuses on the career of the legendary Jackie Robinson, with Chadwick Boseman as the title character and Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey. The pic has been well-publicized, especially during the NCAA basketball championship. Its release coinciding with the start of baseball season certainly can’t hurt. Less than two years ago, another baseball drama Moneyball opened to a solid $19 million. I believe 42 has the potential to go beyond that number. Its ceiling could be as high as $30 million, but I’m projecting a gross in the mid 20s.
Scary Movie V is a tough one. It’s been seven long years since the fourth installment of the successful franchise. The third film opened to an astonishing $48 million and #4 earned a fantastic $40 million opening. Starring tabloid legends Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and Katt Williams, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this film series time has come and gone. However, it may be foolish to underestimate its potential. That leaves a real quandary… I believe Scary Movie V could shock us all and having an opening similar to its predecessors. That would mean it easily opens #1, most likely. But I’m going to go the opposite direction and predict that father time has caught up with the franchise.
Aforementioned critical hits The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance expand to approximately 450 and 400 theaters, respectively. The two films could post solid per-screen averages that will help decide how much further they expand. To give you an idea of relation to screen openings, both 42 and Scary Movie are opening on around 3000 screens.
The Evil Dead scared up a very impressive $26 million opening last weekend. It also earned a dismal C+ Cinemascore average. Horror flicks tend to drop big anyway and Dead should follow suit. The Jurassic Park re-release posted a good $18 million opening for fourth place. A drop of at least 45-55% seems likely. And last weekend’s #2 and #3 G.I. Joe Retaliation and The Croods should swap places. With their percentage drops, this will likely cause The Croods to stay put in third place.
And with all that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. 42
Predicted Gross: $24.7 million
2. Scary Movie V
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. The Evil Dead
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. Jurassic Park 3D
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
With their openings in a low number of venues, I’ll predict $3.3 million for The Place Beyond the Pines and $1.9 million for Trance.
And there’s your predictions. Check back through the weekend for updates and Sunday for final numbers!
As news broke today of the death of Margaret Thatcher (no relation, though that’s not what I tell people), I thought of her immeasurable contributions to world history and her legacy of anti-socialism and freedom.
And then I thought of movies. I can’t control the way my mind works, people. I just blog about it!
Specifically, I thought about Meryl Streep winning the Best Actress Oscar in 2011 for her portrayal of Thatcher in The Iron Lady.
That got me wondering just how many performers have been nominated for playing real-life characters in the Best Actor and Actress categories in recent Oscar history… say the last 25 years.
The answer? 76 nominations out of 250 in the past 25 Oscars have been for real-life portrayals, by my count. Of these 50 winners in those two top acting categories over the past quarter century, 19 of them were for such performances. Not too shabby.
Additionally, in the last 11 Oscars, at least one winner in the Best Actor and/or Actress race has been for a real-life portrayal.
Of those 19 winners, 10 were for Best Actor. 9 were for Best Actress.
Who were they, you may ask? Well, I’m going to tell you.
Best Actor
1989: Daniel Day-Lewis as Christy Brown in My Left Foot
1990: Jeremy Irons as Claus Von Bulow in Reversal of Fortune
1996: Geoffrey Rush as David Helfgott in Shine
2002: Adrien Brody as Wladyslaw Szpilman in The Pianist
2004: Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles in Ray
2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote in Capote
2006: Forest Whitaker as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland
2008: Sean Penn as Harvey Milk in Milk
2010: Colin Firth as King George VI in The King’s Speech
2012: Daniel Day-Lewis as Abraham Lincoln in Lincoln
Best Actress
1995: Susan Sarandon as Sister Helen Prejean in Dead Man Walking
1999: Hilary Swank as Brandon Teena in Boys Don’t Cry
2000: Julia Roberts as Erin Brockovich in Erin Brockovich
2002: Nicole Kidman as Virginia Woolf in The Hours
2003: Charlize Theron as Aileen Wournos in Monster
2005: Reese Witherspoon as June Carter Cash in Walk the Line
2007: Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf in La Vie En Rose
2009: Sandra Bullock as Leigh Anne Tuohy in The Blind Side
2011: Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher in The Iron Lady
In the last 24 years, Daniel Day-Lewis has been nominated three times for playing real characters. He won for My Left Foot and Lincoln and was also nominated for his role as Gerry Conlon in 1993’s In the Name of the Father.
On the Actress side, Dame Judi Dench also received three nominations: as Queen Victoria in 1997’s Mrs. Brown, as Iris Murdoch in 2001’s Iris, and Laura Henderson in 2005’s Mrs. Henderson Presents. No wins for M… I mean, Dame Judi. In addition to Streep’s win for The Iron Lady, she was nominated three more times for real person roles – as Lindy Chamberlain in 1988’s A Cry in the Dark, as Roberta Gouspari in 1999’s Music of the Heart, and Julia Child in 2009’s Julie&Julia. Cate Blanchett has the interesting distinction of being nominated twice for the same role as Elizabeth I in 1998’s Elizabeth and in 2007 for its follow-up Elizabeth: The Golden Age.
In 2004, we saw the most real-life portrayals nominated in one race with four of the five Best Actor nominees. In addition to Jamie Foxx’s winning performance as Ray Charles, other nominees were Don Cheadle as Paul Rusesabagina in Hotel Rwanda, Johnny Depp as JM Barrie in Finding Neverland, and Leonardo DiCaprio as Howard Hughes in The Aviator. The following year would bring three more nominations that fit the criteria for Best Actor. Philip Seymour Hoffman won for Capote and Joaquin Phoenix was nominated as Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, as well as David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow in Good Night, and Good Luck. So in those two years for Best Actor – 70% of the nominees were based on real-life individuals.
2009 is the one and only time three of the Best Actress nominees have been real-lifers. Sandra Bullock won for The Blind Side, alongside fellow nominees Streep as Julia Child and Helen Mirren as Sophia Tolstoy in The Last Station.
What might we see in 2013 as far as potential nominees? Plenty. Tom Hanks has good odds. He’s playing Captain Richard Phillips in the true-life Somali pirate hostage drama Captain Phillips and Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. Curiously, while Hanks has won two back-to-back Oscars playing fictional characters in Philadelphia and Forrest Gump, he did not receive nominations for his real-life roles as Jim Lovell in Apollo 13 and Congressman Charlie Wilson in Charlie Wilson’s War.
Steve Carell could earn Academy attention as John du Pont in Foxcatcher. After all, the film’s director Bennett Miller guided Philip Seymour Hoffman to an Oscar win in Capote and Brad Pitt to a nomination as Oakland A’s manager Billy Beane in 2011’s Moneyball.
Matthew McConaughey seems destined for an Oscar nomination with the way his career’s been going lately and his turn as real-life AIDS activist Ron Woodroof in The Dallas Buyer’s Club might be the role. Idris Elba is sure to get some attention as Nelson Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom (Morgan Freeman was nominated for playing Mandelia in 2009 in Invictus). That’s happened before in recent Oscar history, by the way. Both Anthony Hopkins in 1995 and Frank Langella in 2008 received nods for playing Richard Nixon in Nixon and Frost/Nixon, respectively.
On the Best Actress front, expect both Naomi Watts and Nicole Kidman to get substantial talk for their upcoming roles. Watts as Princess Di in Diana. Kidman is Grace Kelly in Grace of Monaco. Also, Emma Thompson is a likely contender as author P.L. Travers in Saving Mr. Banks.
So, folks, there’s your recent history of performers playing real folks and getting Oscar attention. As you can see, it’s no secret why actors seek out these types of roles. That gold statue could come calling.
