Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: July 12-14

This weekend at the box office, I am predicting that an animated sequel will be #1 for the fourth weekend in a row. That means Despicable Me 2 is my selection to repeat at the top spot (Monsters University was 1st for two weeks prior). Well-received animated features rarely drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames and I don’t expect this one to.

My forecast means that I am not predicting Pacific Rim to open as big as some expect. While my prediction reflects a fairly decent opening, I see it doing below $40 million. My full blog post outlining my Pacific prediction can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is Adam Sandler’s first sequel, Grown Ups 2. In this case, I don’t see it matching the $40 million debut that its predecessor earned in 2010. My full forecast on Grown Ups 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Last weekend, Disney’s The Lone Ranger debuted to very disappointing results. I also wrote an extensive post about its failure right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-lone-ranger-bombs-an-analysis/

In its second weekend, Ranger is likely to lose more than half its audience. If so, this may well allow The Heat to only drop to fourth with Ranger rounding out the top five.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

2. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook page over the weekend with a full blog report Sunday. And I’ll be back with more box office predictions very soon for next weekend when FOUR titles open – Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!

The Lone Ranger Bombs: An Analysis

There were probably a lot of long faces today at the Disney headquarters and they didn’t all belong to Goofy. This is due to a box office performance that simply cannot be spun positively. The Lone Ranger is a bomb. A big one. Yes, there’s been disappointments this summer such as After Earth and White House Down, but Ranger is the most high-profile one yet.

Why? Well, several reasons as I see it and it’s difficult to determine which factors most contributed to its failure. Most likely, the answer is a combination of all of them. For starters, the decision to open Ranger against the animated juggernaut Despicable Me 2 now looks like a bad idea. Ranger earned $29.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $48.7 million since its Wednesday debut. By contrast, Despicable Me 2 nearly tripled that gross, with $83.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $143 million since its Wednesday bow. If you would’ve told me that would have been the case two months ago, I would have said you were crazy. Ranger was marketed toward a family audience and it’s clear now a whole lot of families had already made their weekend pick: the minions.

To add insult to injury, think about this: the Ethan Hawke sci-fi horror flick The Purge earned $34 million in its opener this summer. That’s $5 million more than Ranger‘s traditional weekend gross. The Purge cost $3 million to produce. The Lone Ranger cost at least $215 million. Wow.

There will be those who will try to claim The Lone Ranger wasn’t successful because it’s not a sequel and part of an already established franchise. They will say it’s increasingly impossible for pictures like that to do well in the summer movie season. I don’t buy it. All you need to do is look at a picture like Now You See Me this season, which had no bankable stars and certainly wasn’t a franchise movie. It has grossed a terrific $110 million so far domestically.

Speaking of bankable stars, Ranger has one and that’s where we get to another factor. Are audiences beginning to tire of Johnny Depp? Certainly, it seems they’re starting to tire of his career choices. Last summer’s Dark Shadows was the weakest of his many collaborations with director Tim Burton, in my view. Audiences rejected it and it grossed an underwhelming $79 million domestically. Back in the day, critics would go out of their way to praise Depp’s acting even if they didn’t care for the film itself. With Ranger, critics are singling out Depp’s performance as a weak spot. With two duds in a row, Depp is returning to the Jack Sparrow well, signing on for a fifth Pirates of the Caribbean pic. The fourth entry, On Stranger Tides from summer 2011, was the lowest grossing of the series (it still made $241 million, but that’s $68 million less than the third). Don’t be surprised if the fifth adventure is the new lowest grosser of the franchise. Crowds seem to be even growing weary of Depp’s signature character.

All of the factors I’ve mentioned are indeed important, but sometimes you can simplify it greatly. Here goes: The Lone Ranger didn’t look very good. There wasn’t one trailer which left me with a strong desire to see it. You could clearly see it was going for a Pirates vibe but when the trailer doesn’t provide any memorable moments, that’s usually a bad sign.

If you’re Disney, the moping is unlikely to last very long. This is, keep in mind, the studio that owns Marvel and will also distribute the upcoming Star Wars entries. Any hope, however, of seeing Depp back in Tonto makeup is about as likely as After Earth 2, Battleship 2, White House Down Again, or Howard the Duck Returns.

Grown Ups 2 Box Office Prediction

After nearly 20 years of many comedy hits (and some misses), Grown Ups 2 marks a surprising first for the star: a sequel. The 2010 original teamed Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, and David Spade and the results were quite positive for Columbia Pictures. Grown Ups earned $40 million in its debut in summer 2010 and went on to gross $162 million domestically.

Still an important question remains: are audiences really clamoring for a sequel to this? I’m not so sure. However, only The Heat is out there in what will be its third weekend as far as direct competition. It is worth noting that Sandler’s last two live-action comedies (Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy) were commercial disappointments, but Grown Ups 2 should have a somewhat significant built-in audience.

Could it earn more than the $40 million its predecessor made first weekend out? Sure but I don’t think it will. A debut in the early 30s seems more plausible as I believe some moviegoers simply won’t be overly eager to see the gang return. Still – respectable business seems likely.

Grown Ups 2 box office prediction: $32.3 million

For my prediction of the weekend’s other new release, Pacific Rim, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

Pacific Rim Box Office Prediction

Guillermo del Toro’s Pacific Rim represents a major gamble on the part of Warner Bros. The science fiction action pic, del Toro’s ode to giant monster movies, comes with a reported $180 million budget. It has no stars and, unlike most summer pics, is not based on any well-known property.

Due to all of that, predicting the opening weekend for Pacific Rim is a tricky proposition. It’s certainly had a lively marketing campaign and I can’t see it doing anything below $30 million. I also can’t help but wonder if certain moviegoers will treat Rim with ambivalence. Those who aren’t aware that del Toro is responsible for the visually stunning Hellboy films and Pan’s Labyrinth may simply look at the pic as a Transformers knock-off and decide to skip it. I would be surprised if Rim earns over $50 million in its debut, though I’d say its chances of doing better than I expect are better than doing less.

That leaves a range between $30 and $50 million as I see it. I’ll pretty go right down the middle here. A gross around $40M will likely be greeted as a decent debut, but not much else.

Pacific Rim opening weekend prediction: $39.7 million

For my prediction on how this weekend’s other opener, Grown Ups 2, will perform – click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: Fourth of July Weekend

Gru and the minions had a sensational debut over the holiday weekend, while moviegoers seemed disinterested in Johnny Depp as Tonto in The Lone Ranger.

Despicable Me 2 blew past expectations with a $82.5 million weekend debut and $142.1 million over the five-day holiday frame. This is well above my projections of $61.3M and $104.8M, respectively. Clearly audiences were quite ready for the sequel to the 2010 animated hit.

Meanwhile, Disney’s The Lone Ranger is already a box office dud. It debuted to a weak $29.4 million over the weekend with $46.9 million over the five-day, well below my projections of $37.8M and $63.9M, respectively.

The Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy comedy The Heat held up slightly better than expected with $25 million, just above my $23.7M projection. Despicable took a bigger bite out of Monsters University than I expected. The Pixar flick dropped to fourth with $19.6 million, below my $25 million estimate. Rounding out the top five, World War Z earned $18.2 million, above my $15M projection. Outside of the top five, the Kevin Hart stand-up concert film Let Me Explain earned a robust $17.5 million over the five-day holiday frame.

Be sure to check back soon for box office projections for next weekend’s openers, Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2!

Guilty Pleasures: The Fifth Element (1997)

Luc Besson’s The Fifth Element from the summer of 1997 begins in Egypt circa 1914 with “Beverly Hills 90210” star Luke Perry being involved in an alien invasion. Everything gets more bizarre from there on…

This is not your everyday summer blockbuster and that’s an understatement. By 1997, director Besson had the clout to basically make whatever picture he wanted. And that’s precisely what he did here. After 1991’s La Femme Nikita and 1994’s Leon: The Professional, French auteur Besson was a hot Hollywood commodity. This led to The Fifth Element, a story he reportedly constructed when he was a teenager and got to make some twenty years later. The picture indeed feels like it was constructed by someone not yet of adult age. It may not always make a whole lot of sense and it has frequent tone shifts… you know, like an impatient teenager was writing it. On the flip side, Element is simply a tremendous amount of fun, contains a lot of well-placed humor, and is a visual feast for the eyes. The Fifth Element is evidence of what happens when a teenager’s fantasy flick is given a $90 million dollar budget.

The story primarily takes place in the year 2214, where the fate of planet Earth hangs in the balance. A beautiful woman Leeloo (Milla Jovovich, who’s terrific here) comes to Earth and is seen a necessary figure in order to save the planet’s impending doom. It all has to do with four mythical stones that must be obtained in connection with a mysterious “fifth element” (get it?) to ensure civilization’s survival.

Caught up in the middle of it all is taxi cab driver Corbin Dallas (Bruce Willis) who forms a connection with Leeloo and goes along with her on the journey. And yet… there’s so much more.

There’s Gary Oldman hamming it up fantastically as a demented industrialist and weapons dealer.

 

There’s Chris Tucker as a flamboyant talk show host, doing some sort of demented impression of Prince and perhaps Dennis Rodman.

 

There’s a weird looking blue alien singing opera and then techno music (you gotta see that one for yourself). Oh, heck, here you go:

The pic is also a triumph of bizarre costumes all designed by the world famous Jean-Paul Gaultier, who coincidentally designs the cologne I normally wear.

And truth be told… it’s all entertaining as hell. Guilty pleasure entertaining? Absolutely. If you haven’t seen The Fifth Element or if it’s been a while, I recommend a look just to behold what Besson was able to get away with in a major studio picture.

2013 Oscar Predictions: A Mid-Year Report

Well, we’re at the midpoint of the 2013 movie season and so it’s time to reveal what pictures have come out that could receive Oscar nominations.

The truth is… not many. At all. It is not rare for very few Best Picture contenders to be released in the first half of a calendar year. In 2010, only Toy Story 3 was among the ten nominees to be released in that time frame. In 2011, only Tree of Life and Midnight in Paris out of nine nominees. In 2012, only Beasts of the Southern Wild out of nine contenders.

2013 looks no different. While Iron Man 3 and Star Trek Into Darkness were well-reviewed and performed great at the box office, neither will be nominated. Critical indie pics like Mud and Frances Ha are long shots, at best. 42 was an audience favorite, but probably won’t be recognized. The Great Gatsby was a hit, but received mixed critical reaction and isn’t really a contender.

In fact, I would say only Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight, the third entry in his relationship drama series with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy stands any real chance at a nomination. And I wouldn’t be surprised if it did get a nod, though that remains to be seen with the heavy hitters coming out this fall.

That basically means only Linklater stands a shot at a Best Director nomination, though I feel the film stands a better chance at recognition than the director.

Once again, only Ethan Hawke seems possible for a Best Actor nomination for Midnight, though I’d say it’s unlikely. His co-star Julie Delpy has a shot at Best Actress as well, as might Greta Gerwig for her performance in Frances Ha. In the Supporting Actor race, perhaps Matthew McConaughey could sneak in for his work in Mud, though he may have a better chance with this fall’s Wolf of Wall Street. If Supporting Actor ends up being extremely weak (doubtful), Harrison Ford has an outside chance for his portrayal of Branch Rickey in 42. I see no possibilities for Best Supporting Actress thus far.

In the writing categories, Before Midnight stands an excellent chance at getting an Original Screenplay nomination. Frances Ha is more of a long shot. I see no contenders in the Adapted Screenplay race.

Per usual, the blockbuster pics released so far stand more realistic chances in the technical categories. The Great Gatsby could pick up Art Direction and Costume Design nominations. Oz the Great and Powerful could contend in those categories, too. In the Sound Mixing and Sound Editing categories, look for possible nods for Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, and Iron Man 3. Both Star Trek and Man of Steel could land Makeup nominations (especially Trek). And for the Visual Effects category, the list is longer: Man of Steel, Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Oz the Great and Powerful, and Oblivion. I see no major contenders in the Cinematography, Editing, or Score races.

Finally, for Animated Feature, we do have some possibilities: Monsters University, Epic, and The Croods. Monsters is practically a shoo-in.

So there you have it! Slim pickings for the Oscar race at this mid-year juncture. 2013 looks no different from normal years where the bulk of nominees will come later in the year.

Box Office Predictions: Fourth of July Weekend

During this Fourth of July holiday weekend, there figures to be some bustling activity as Despicable Me 2 and The Lone Ranger open today while holdovers Monsters University, The Heat, and World War Z look to round out the top five.

Earlier this week, I posted my five-day prediction on how Gru and the minions will perform over the holiday weekend. It can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/despicable-me-2-box-office-prediction/

I also wrote my detailed projection on how Johnny Depp and Armie Hammer will fare with The Lone Ranger. That post can be read here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/the-lone-ranger-box-office-prediction/

An expected huge opening for Despicable Me 2 may well cut into the grosses of Monsters University in its third weekend, but I still expect it to not lose half its audience. Likewise, the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy comedy The Heat will likely have a fairly small drop as well. World War Z seems poised to lose about half its audience in its third weekend.

And with that, here’s my predictions for the holiday weekend’s Top Five:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $61.3 million (projected five-day opening: $104.8 million)

2. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $37.8 million (projected five-day opening: $63.9 million)

3. Monsters University

Predicted Gross: $25 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. World War Z

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 49%)

As always, I’ll be posting updates on the Facebook page throughout the holiday weekend with final results on the blog on Sunday!

Summer 2013 Winners and Losers: A Mid-Term Report

In Hollywood, the summer movie season runs from May to August, a glorious four-month period of blockbusters and would-be blockbusters. So that means today is the official midpoint of the 2013 Summer Movie Season. What better time to reveal the first half of the season’s Winners and Losers. Let’s get to it, shall we?

Winner

Tony Stark – The first film of the summer is poised to be the season’s #1 hit. Iron Man 3 has already raced past the $400 million mark domestically and played more like a sequel to last summer’s #1 The Avengers than it did as a continuation of Iron Man 2.

Winner

Female Driven Films – Two titles that appealed more to females have posted impressive results – May’s The Great Gatsby debuted to $50 million and the Melissa McCarthy/Sandra Bullock comedy The Heat grossed nearly $40 million in its first weekend. With a dearth of movies catering towards the female audience in the summer, those that do have come up big.

Loser

Tyler Perry – Pics that Perry involves himself with usually are dependable hits, but May’s Peeples was an exception. It’s only grossed a pathetic $9 million.

Winner

The Fast and Furious Franchise – This series shows no signs of letting up. The sixth installment has amassed a terrific $233 million domestic gross at press time and the seventh will be out next summer.

Loser

The Wolf Pack – Moviegoers seem to have had it with the Hangover franchise. The third flick stands at $110 million, well below the first two which both grossed over $250 million.

Loser

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson – They had the comedy blockbuster of the summer… in 2005 with Wedding Crashers. Lightning did not strike twice with The Internship, which has grossed only $41 million.

Winner

Ethan Hawke – He has the critical indie hit of the summer with Before Midnight, but it’s his well-marketed thriller The Purge that shocked everyone with an amazing $34 million opening.

Winner

Now You See Me – Ironically, no one saw the magic-themed caper pic breaking through on the level it did. Its current gross stands at $104 million.

Loser

Will Smith (and M. Night Shyamalan) – No summer blockbuster this time around for Mr. Smith. After Earth has grossed only $58 million. The film marks another dud for director M. Night Shyamalan as well.

Winner

Zombies – After a lot of bad buzz regarding cost overruns, World War Z is performing way better than expectations, with a very solid $66 million opening and a pretty soft drop in its second weekend.

Loser

White House Action Flicks – It wasn’t the case in the spring when Olympus Has Fallen was a surprise hit. This season, however, the similarly plotted White House Down starring Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx landed with a thud in its opening weekend, with only $24 million.

Winner

Pixar – Aren’t they always? Their prequel Monsters University has done a robust $171 million in 10 days and continues the streak of Pixar mega-grossers.

Winner

Superman – The franchise has been reinvigorated. Despite mixed reviews, Man of Steel posted a soaring $125 million opening and looks to fly past the $300 million mark.

Winner

Kirk and Spock – At first, Star Trek Into Darkness had a somewhat disappointing opening but has had strong legs since. It may not quite match the $257 million take of the 2009 original, but it should come close (it currently is at $220M).

Winner

This is the End – The comedy featuring an all-star cast including Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, James Franco, and many others received positive critical reaction and looks to flirt with the $100 million mark – a very respectable haul.

And there you have it… let’s see how the last two months of the season shake out. I’ll be watching!

The Lone Ranger Box Office Prediction

It’s got Johnny Depp reuniting with his Pirates of the Caribbean director Gore Verbinski and there’s certainly been no shortage of promotion, but whether The Lone Ranger performs well at the box office seems to be an open question right now.

Opening Wednesday, Ranger has been plagued by negative press for quite some time. It’s worth mentioning that its bad press (mostly about budget overruns) is similar to the kind of press World War Z received. And that picture is doing quite well domestically and worldwide.

The price tag for Ranger is reportedly around $250 million so its domestic and foreign numbers will need to be very strong. As mentioned, the combination of director Verbinski (who made the first three Pirates flick) and star Depp (playing Tonto) has been lucrative.

However, beyond its less than glowing press coverage, The Lone Ranger may have other issues. First and foremost, it’s starting to seem as if opening against Despicable Me 2 might be a mistake. That animated sequel looks in position to post huge holiday weekend numbers and Lone Ranger is competing for much of that same family audience. My prediction post on Despicable Me 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/30/despicable-me-2-box-office-prediction/

Secondly, I don’t really think the trailers look that good and I’m not convinced audiences will rush out to this like they did for Pirates. 

So, what kind of numbers are we talking here? The range on Ranger is massive. Over its first five days, I would say $90 million would be the ceiling. I’ll be truly surprised if its does over that figure. A number like $75 million is certainly possible and would be considered a fairly decent opening (you gotta keep in mind with the pedigree and budget involved, the numbers game is changed here… in case you’re wondering why $75M would only be considered decent). I think it’ll dip below that though. And anything below $75M will be considered a big letdown for Disney. My prediction reflects Depp’s Tonto and Armie Hammer’s Ranger falling far short of Gru and his minions for a second place showing over the holiday weekend.

The Lone Ranger opening prediction: $63.9 million

Be sure to check back Tuesday for my predictions on the weekend’s top five.