The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 20-16

And we continue on with my personal list of the 25 Greatest Directors Working Today! For those who missed yesterday’s post covering numbers 25-21, you may find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-25-21/

We move on to part 2 naming 20-16:

20. Brad Bird

Mr. Bird got his start directing three critically acclaimed animated features: The Iron Giant, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille. Bird made a very promising live-action debut in 2011 with Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, possibly the best in the franchise so far.

19. Danny Boyle

An eclectic filmmaker for sure, Boyle has shown a mastery for all kinds of genres. His credits include Trainspotting, 28 Days Later and its sequel 28 Weeks Later, Millions, Sunshine, Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, and Trance.

18. Peter Jackson

Mr. Jackson has thrilled audiences for over a decade with his visualization of Tolkien works, the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the Hobbit trilogy. This is in addition to King Kong and The Lovely Bones. Is he a visual genius? Absolutely. Does he need an editor from time to time? Yes sir.

17. Kathryn Bigelow

Bigelow made history in 2009 when she became the first female to win Best Director at the Oscars for The Hurt Locker. She also directed last year’s Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Just as impressive: Bigelow made 1991’s surfing flick Point Break, one of the most fun action pictures ever made.

16. Sam Mendes

He won an Oscar for directing 1999’s American Beauty and went on to direct Road to Perdition, Jarhead, and Revolutionary Road. And now Mr. Mendes has taken over the James Bond franchise in glorious fashion with last year’s Skyfall. He just signed to direct the 24th 007 picture, out in 2015.

That’s all for now my friends! I’ll be back with numbers 15-11 very quickly.

The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 25-21

For those who’ve followed the blog for a bit, you’ll know I love lists. And when the idea came across to name my Top 25 Greatest Directors right now, I knew it would be a challenge.

It truly was. This list will be comprised in five parts with five directors named each post in descending order, from #25 to #1. Of course, this list is totally subjective. I would expect and anticipate disagreement. I would expect my readers to disagree with placement of names and leaving certain directors off. That’s what makes these lists so fun!

Before we get to the Top 25, I’ve deemed it necessary to touch on some names left off the list. I’ll do my best to explain why.

First off, directors with only one or two pictures were unlikely to make the cut. Two perfect examples: Joss Whedon (director of last summer’s terrific The Avengers) and Neill Blomkamp (director of 2009’s innovative sci-fi adventure District 9). This would also apply to Rian Johnson, who made one of my favorites pics of 2012, Looper. He’s directed other indie films such as Brick, which I haven’t seen. Upon viewing them, perhaps he makes the list. I also very reluctantly left off Nicolas Winding Refn, whose 2011 pic Drive is one of my favorites of the last few years. However, it’s the only film of his I’ve seen.

And then there’s the directors who would have unquestionably been on the list 5, 10, or 20 years ago but have been disappointing lately. This a longer list. It includes Michael Mann, who was on fire in the 1990s with The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, and The Insider but whose last couple efforts (Miami Vice and Public Enemies) have been letdowns. Tim Burton has mostly been directing disappointments lately and I reluctantly left him off, but I’m anxious for him to do something good again! Same goes for Oliver Stone. Ten years ago, Bryan Singer was coming off two very well-done X-Men pictures. Since then, we saw the mediocre Superman Returns and Jack the Giant Slayer. Zack Snyder also gets the Superman curse with Man of Steel, which I wasn’t crazy about. After 300 and Watchmen, he would’ve certainly made the cut. Sam Raimi would have been on ten years ago during his first two Spiderman films, but the third one and Oz the Great and Powerful don’t measure up. Gore Verbinski had The Ring and the original Pirates of the Caribbean. Then – those Pirates sequels and The Lone Ranger. The ultimate example: ten years ago, M. Night Shyamalan might have made the top five. Now, after The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth, I didn’t even consider him.

And then there’s the simple fact that the list is twenty-five. Three names that almost made it: Clint Eastwood, Alexander Payne, and Paul Greengrass. However, there can only be 25 so here we go with Part I.

25. James Cameron

Some may say he’s too low, but the man has only directed three pictures in the last 20 years. Of course, his last two (Titanic, Avatar) set worldwide box office records and he’s a visionary genius. His writing leaves a bit to be desired, but he belongs on the list regardless.

24. Wes Anderson

Anderson has carved out an impressive niche of quirky comedies: Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Darjeeling Limited, and Moonrise Kingdom. 

23. Woody Allen

Woody has always been hit or miss, but he directs a picture a year and when he hits, it’s still great. Two prime examples from the last decade: Match Point and Midnight in Paris. His latest effort, Blue Jasmine, is already receiving positive notices.

22. Ridley Scott

OK, we’re still a bit puzzled over Prometheus, but you can’t ignore Gladiator, Black Hawk Down and American Gangster in recent years. Plus… this dude directed Alien and Blade Runner, for goodness sake!

21. Matthew Vaughn

His Kick-Ass was tremendous fun and then he went on to infuse much needed life in the X-Men franchise with X-Men: First Class. He was rumored to be taking over the Star Wars franchise, but it never happened. Regardless, I can’t wait to see how his career trajectory goes.

And there’s numbers 25-21, folks! I’ll be back soon with 20-16!

Box Office Predictions: July 19-21

Well, how’s this for an upcoming jigsaw puzzle of a weekend for box office predictions? We have the current #1 Despicable Me 2 entering its third weekend. We have Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim entering their second weekends. And we have an astonishing four new movies opening: the supernatural thriller The Conjuring, Dreamworks animated Turbo, the action/comedy sequel Red 2, and the sci-fi comedy R.I.P.D.

Yesterday I wrote extensive prediction posts on all four newbies which can be found linked below:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, with the infusion of competition especially from Turbo, Despicable Me 2 may lose around half its audience. Due to the same reasons, I expect Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim to lose more than half their debut weekend audiences. With all the new titles this week, I’m changing my usual format of picking the top five to top seven. And, with that, here it is:

1. The Conjuring

Predicted Gross: $35.3 million

2. Turbo

Predicted Gross: $27.1 million ($42.8 million for projected five-day gross)

3. Red 2

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

4. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

6. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

7. R.I.P.D.

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

We shall see how it all shakes out this coming weekend. Per usual, I’ll have weekend updates on the Facebook page with final results on Sunday!

R.I.P.D. Box Office Prediction

Unless my radar is way off, R.I.P.D. looks to be a massive bomb when it opens this weekend. The title stands for Rest In Peace Department and stars Ryan Reynolds and Jeff Bridges as deceased law enforcement officers who must battle evil spirits.

I’m going to get to the point: the trailer for R.I.P.D. makes it look like an ultra-cheesy Men in Black rip-off with Bridges doing a bad comedic version of his Rooster Cogburn character from True Grit. When the trailer is as atrocious as this one, what does that say for the film?

To make matters worse, the competition for R.I.P.D. is seemingly insurmountable. If it’s going for family audiences, there’s Turbo and Despicable Me 2 out there. If it’s going for teenagers and young adults, it has to compete with The Conjuring and the second weekends of Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2, as well as Red 2 for a more adult and action-oriented demographic. So… how does this make money? My answer: it doesn’t

R.I.P.D. inexplicably boasts a hefty $130 million budget and that spells big trouble ahead for Universal Pictures, as I see it. The film looks headed to a dismal seventh place finish at the box office. Bottom line: R.I.P.D. looks DOA.

R.I.P.D. opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million

There are four films opening this weekend at the box office. For my prediction on The Conjuring, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

Red 2 Box Office Prediction

Red 2 joins an extremely crowded marketplace this weekend at the box office. This is the sequel to the action/comedy which was a surprise hit in the fall of 2010, earning $90 million domestically.

Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, Mary-Louise Parker, and Helen Mirren are back for the second installment and this time joined by Anthony Hopkins and Catherine Zeta-Jones. While the original did exceed expectations, I ask the following questions: are audiences clamoring for a sequel to this?

I’m highly skeptical, but I asked the same very question just last week with Grown Ups 2, which I wrongly predicted would earn less in its opening weekend than the first installment. I was wrong. The sequel ended up doing $42 million, two million higher than the original.

The comparison may be apples to oranges, but I’m hopeful my sequel radar isn’t off in this case. As I see it, Red made $22.5 million in its debut. I figure Red 2 will do about exactly the same. There’s always the chance that anticipation is higher than I believe, but I don’t see it.

Red 2 opening weekend prediction: $22.7 million

There are four new films opening this week. For my prediction on The Conjuring, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

The Conjuring Box Office Prediction

There are four high-profile titles coming to the multiplex this weekend, but I’m starting to believe Warner Bros. The Conjuring could take the top spot when all is said and done.

Why? For one thing, horror/supernatural flicks are a hot commodity right now. In June, The Purge grossed an impressive $34 million in its first weekend. In January, Mama greatly exceeded expectations with a $28 million debut.

The Conjuring, starring Patrick Wilson and Vera Farmiga, comes from Saw and Insidious director James Wan. And it just may have more going for it than the two previously mentioned 2013 horror hits. Unlike most horror flicks, The Conjuring is receiving surprisingly glowing reviews. It currently sits at 87% on Rotten Tomatoes… something practically unheard of for a picture of its genre.

Whether that translates into an opening on par with The Purge is a good question. Horror films tend to have big openings and suffer huge drops in their second weekend. The Conjuring could be an exception to the rule in that it may not have the significant percentage drops in subsequent weekends due to solid word-of-mouth.

I see The Conjuring debuting to no lower than in the mid-twenties range. However, I feel good buzz surrounding it will propel the film to a larger debut (right in Purge range).

The Conjuring opening weekend prediction: $35.3 million

There are four new films opening this week. For my prediction on Turbo, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

For Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

Turbo Box Office Prediction

In the last month, family audiences have been treated to two animated sequel behemoths, Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. Both titles are on their way to grossing over $300 million domestically.

This leaves an open question for Dreamworks Turbo, opening Wednesday: will parents and their kiddos turn out for this? Featuring the voices of Ryan Reynolds, Paul Giamatti, Michael Pena, Snoop Dogg (or Lion), Samuel L. Jackson, and many others, Turbo seems geared towards the boys of the family with its racing theme. The film’s tagline (“He’s Fast. They’re Furious.” is no accident).

Dreamworks is planning to parlay Turbo into an animated Netflix series later this year so they’re clearly hoping for solid box office returns stateside. First things first: Turbo has zero chance of reaching the level of the animated sequels that have ruled the #1 spot at the box office for the past four weeks.

A more likely scenario is Turbo opening to what The Croods and Epic did earlier in the year. The Croods took in $43 million during its opening weekend in March and Epic posted $33 million in May. Keep in mind that Turbo opens Wednesday so this prediction will be for its five-day gross.

Even with the five-day figure, I’m having a hard time seeing Turbo earning more than The Croods did in its three-day opening. I do believe that Monsters University and the second Despicable Me may keep a significant percentage of family audiences away, but it should still have a rather respectable opening.

Turbo opening weekend prediction (five-day gross): $42.8 million

There are four titles opening this week. For my prediction on how The Conjuring will do, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Red 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

For R.I.P.D., click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: July 12-14

It was the minions ruling the box office for the second weekend in a row, while Adam Sandler got a much needed hit and Pacific Rim opened right in line with my expectations.

Despicable Me 2 earned $44.8 million to remain at the top spot in its sophomore frame. This was right in line with my $45.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a fantastic $229 million so far and looks to soar well past the $300 million mark.

It was Adam Sandler and his buddies that outdid my expectations. The star’s first ever sequel, Grown Ups 2, grossed an impressive $42.5 million for second place, well above my modest $32.3M estimate. This is great news for Sandler, who needed a hit after the back to back flops Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy.

Giullermo del Toro’s Pacific Rim had to settle for third with a so-so $38.3 million debut, which was right in range with my $39.7M projection. The big budget monster flick will need hefty international grosses and strong legs domestically to get into profitability mode.

Rounding out the top five, The Heat was fourth with $14 million (I said $14.2M) and The Lone Ranger fell even further than I figured in its second weekend with $11.1 million (I said $13.8M).

Be sure to check the blog starting later today when I’ll do posts projecting the openings of four (yes, four) new entries for next weekend: Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: July 12-14

This weekend at the box office, I am predicting that an animated sequel will be #1 for the fourth weekend in a row. That means Despicable Me 2 is my selection to repeat at the top spot (Monsters University was 1st for two weeks prior). Well-received animated features rarely drop 50% or more in their sophomore frames and I don’t expect this one to.

My forecast means that I am not predicting Pacific Rim to open as big as some expect. While my prediction reflects a fairly decent opening, I see it doing below $40 million. My full blog post outlining my Pacific prediction can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is Adam Sandler’s first sequel, Grown Ups 2. In this case, I don’t see it matching the $40 million debut that its predecessor earned in 2010. My full forecast on Grown Ups 2 can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/grown-ups-2-box-office-prediction/

Last weekend, Disney’s The Lone Ranger debuted to very disappointing results. I also wrote an extensive post about its failure right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/08/the-lone-ranger-bombs-an-analysis/

In its second weekend, Ranger is likely to lose more than half its audience. If so, this may well allow The Heat to only drop to fourth with Ranger rounding out the top five.

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

2. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $39.7 million

3. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

4. The Heat

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. The Lone Ranger

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook page over the weekend with a full blog report Sunday. And I’ll be back with more box office predictions very soon for next weekend when FOUR titles open – Turbo, The Conjuring, Red 2, and R.I.P.D. Stay tuned!

The Lone Ranger Bombs: An Analysis

There were probably a lot of long faces today at the Disney headquarters and they didn’t all belong to Goofy. This is due to a box office performance that simply cannot be spun positively. The Lone Ranger is a bomb. A big one. Yes, there’s been disappointments this summer such as After Earth and White House Down, but Ranger is the most high-profile one yet.

Why? Well, several reasons as I see it and it’s difficult to determine which factors most contributed to its failure. Most likely, the answer is a combination of all of them. For starters, the decision to open Ranger against the animated juggernaut Despicable Me 2 now looks like a bad idea. Ranger earned $29.2 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday weekend and $48.7 million since its Wednesday debut. By contrast, Despicable Me 2 nearly tripled that gross, with $83.5 million over Friday to Sunday and $143 million since its Wednesday bow. If you would’ve told me that would have been the case two months ago, I would have said you were crazy. Ranger was marketed toward a family audience and it’s clear now a whole lot of families had already made their weekend pick: the minions.

To add insult to injury, think about this: the Ethan Hawke sci-fi horror flick The Purge earned $34 million in its opener this summer. That’s $5 million more than Ranger‘s traditional weekend gross. The Purge cost $3 million to produce. The Lone Ranger cost at least $215 million. Wow.

There will be those who will try to claim The Lone Ranger wasn’t successful because it’s not a sequel and part of an already established franchise. They will say it’s increasingly impossible for pictures like that to do well in the summer movie season. I don’t buy it. All you need to do is look at a picture like Now You See Me this season, which had no bankable stars and certainly wasn’t a franchise movie. It has grossed a terrific $110 million so far domestically.

Speaking of bankable stars, Ranger has one and that’s where we get to another factor. Are audiences beginning to tire of Johnny Depp? Certainly, it seems they’re starting to tire of his career choices. Last summer’s Dark Shadows was the weakest of his many collaborations with director Tim Burton, in my view. Audiences rejected it and it grossed an underwhelming $79 million domestically. Back in the day, critics would go out of their way to praise Depp’s acting even if they didn’t care for the film itself. With Ranger, critics are singling out Depp’s performance as a weak spot. With two duds in a row, Depp is returning to the Jack Sparrow well, signing on for a fifth Pirates of the Caribbean pic. The fourth entry, On Stranger Tides from summer 2011, was the lowest grossing of the series (it still made $241 million, but that’s $68 million less than the third). Don’t be surprised if the fifth adventure is the new lowest grosser of the franchise. Crowds seem to be even growing weary of Depp’s signature character.

All of the factors I’ve mentioned are indeed important, but sometimes you can simplify it greatly. Here goes: The Lone Ranger didn’t look very good. There wasn’t one trailer which left me with a strong desire to see it. You could clearly see it was going for a Pirates vibe but when the trailer doesn’t provide any memorable moments, that’s usually a bad sign.

If you’re Disney, the moping is unlikely to last very long. This is, keep in mind, the studio that owns Marvel and will also distribute the upcoming Star Wars entries. Any hope, however, of seeing Depp back in Tonto makeup is about as likely as After Earth 2, Battleship 2, White House Down Again, or Howard the Duck Returns.