Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: November 8-10

There’s certainly zero mystery as to what will be #1 this weekend as Thor: The Dark World blasts into theaters and should have one of the biggest openings of the year. You can read my detailed post outlining my prediction on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

The weekend’s other newcomer is About Time, a British romantic comedy with Rachel McAdams that could muster up some decent counter programming business. It could also totally tank. I’m not too sure about that one, but my prediction post for it is here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Ender’s Game will fall to second place and should lose about half its audience in weekend #2 after a just OK $27 million opening. After that, numbers 3-6 should involve a combination of the following: Last Vegas and Free Birds in their sophomore weekends, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa in its third, and the debut of About Time. The order of how they place is very much up in the air and should be close.

And with that – I’ll make it top six (instead of the usual five) predictions for next weekend:

1. Thor: The Dark World

Predicted Gross: $85.6 million

2. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)

3. About Time

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $11 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

There you have it! As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results Sunday!

About Time Box Office Prediction

Attempting to provide counter programming to the box office juggernaut that will be the Thor sequel, the British rom com About Time opens Friday. The pic is from Love, Actually director Richard Curtis and stars Rachel McAdams. Domhnall Gleeson (who played one of the Weasley brothers in the Harry Potter pics) costars.

McAdams has certainly had her share of luck in the genre with The Notebook and The Vow, but About Time will likely be a smaller affair. Will chicks turn out for this flick? It’s hard to imagine it falling below double digits for the opener, even if this seems to be flying under the radar. I’ll predict McAdams name should propel it to low double digits with the possibility that it could surprise.

About Time opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million

For my Thor: The Dark World prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/thor-the-dark-world-box-office-prediction/

Thor: The Dark World Box Office Prediction

The second weekend of November should bring huge results as an Avenger returns in Thor: The Dark World, the sequel to the 2011 hit. Chris Hemsworth is back as the title character along with returnees Natalie Portman, Anthony Hopkins, Rene Russo, and, of course, fan favorite Tom Hiddleston as villainous Loki. TV vet Alan Taylor takes over directing duties from Kenneth Branagh, who moved on to film Jack Ryan.

The original debuted to a strong $65.7 million two and a half years ago, but expectations are understandably higher this time around. Summer 2012 brought us a little movie called The Avengers that broke box office records and increased Thor’s visibility to an even wider audience. The question is: just how high can this pic open?

Conventional estimates are forecasting above $75 million and I would envision Thor easily grabbing that number. A debut in the mid-80s seems most likely though it may land a little lower and (more likely) around $90 million. Reviews have been pretty solid – not that it matters a whole lot. Thor: The Dark World is destined to be a gigantic hit and propel momentum for the next Avengers themed pic coming next spring, the Captain America sequel.

Thor: The Dark World opening weekend prediction: $85.6 million

For my About Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/about-time-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: November 1-3

Of the three new pictures that opened this weekend, not one of them reached the number I predicted while Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa held up considerably better in its second frame than I estimated.

Unsurprisingly, the sci-fi pic Ender’s Game debuted at #1 with $28 million, a bit below my $32.9M prediction. This is only a somewhat decent opening for the film and it will likely suffer a healthy decline next weekend when Thor hammers into theaters.

Bad Grandpa held the #2 spot with $20.5 million in its sophomore frame – well above my $13.7M projection. The pic has taken in $62.1 million in ten days and surpassing $100M seems assured.

The all-star comedy Last Vegas had an OK debut with $16.5 million, below my $19.2M estimate. The Thanksgiving animated feature Free Birds also had a so-so $16.2 million opening for fourth place, below my generous $21M estimate. Both titles could have relatively small declines in upcoming weekends. Gravity held the five spot with $13.1 million, right in line with my $13.9M estimate.

Finally, Oscar contender 12 Years a Slave expanded its theater count and grossed an impressive $4.6 million, above my $3.5-$4M projection. The pic is likely to stay in the Top Ten for a little while.

Be sure to check the blog later today when my estimates for Thor: The Dark World and About Time will be posted.

River Phoenix: 20 Years Later

Today marks 20 years ago that an incredibly promising acting career was cut tragically short due to drug addiction.

At the age of 23, Oscar nominee River Phoenix collapsed outside the Viper Room in Los Angeles due to a heroin and cocaine overdose. In just an eight year period, Phoenix had earned the status of one of the finest actors of his generation. His first film role came alongside a young Ethan Hawke in Joe Dante’s 1985 cult sci-fi flick Explorers.

By the following year, River really broke out with roles in Rob Reiner’s terrific Stand by Me and alongside Harrison Ford in the well-reviewed The Mosquito Coast.

In 1988, Mr. Phoenix received a Supporting Actor nod for his impressive work in Sidney Lumet’s Running on Empty, which is a picture well worth seeking out.

In 1989, Phoenix’s biggest commercial success would come in the opening scenes of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade where he played a young Indy quite believably.

In 1991, he would costar with Keanu Reeves in Gus Van Sant’s acclaimed My Own Private Idaho, where he won the National Society of Film Critics Award for Best Actor. That same year he starred with Lili Taylor in the critical favorite Dogfight.

More commercial success would follow in 1992 with Sneakers, in which he played a supporting role alongside heavyweights Robert Redford, Ben Kingsley, and Sidney Poitier.

It’s hard to imagine, but River Phoenix would only be 43 years old if not for the fateful Halloween evening in 1993. There is little doubt that his career would have persisted onwards and upwards alonside contemporaries like Johnny Depp, Brad Pitt, and Leonardo DiCaprio.

The family legacy has certainly continued. It was River’s younger brother who placed the 911 call while River fought for his life. Joaquin Phoenix and his brilliant work in Walk the Line, The Master, and his Oscar buzzworthy turn in the upcoming Her carries on the tradition of great acting that his big brother started.

Box Office Predictions: November 1-3

It isn’t often you have a weekend showcasing three new pictures that all stand reasonable shots at opening in first place, but that’s the situation we find ourselves for the first weekend of November 2013. We have the sci-fi epic Ender’s Game, the animated Thanksgiving tale Free Birds, and the all-star comedy Last Vegas all debuting. You could make legit arguments for any one of them being the weekend’s champ. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

The odds-on favorite is Ender’s Game and I have it easily taking the top spot. However, there is the chance it could flop and allow one of the others to leapfrog it. Free Birds could capitalize on its Thanksgiving subject matter. Last Vegas could cash in on the star power of Robert De Niro, Morgan Freeman, Michael Douglas, and Kevin Kline.

Ultimately, though, I’m not betting against Ender’s Game winning the weekend. As for holdovers, it could be a tight race for the four spot as Gravity will likely experience its typical small decline while last weekend’s #1 Bad Grandpa is poised to fall more than 50%.

Outside of the top five, Oscar front runner 12 Years a Slave expands to 400 theaters and could take in $3.5-$4 million.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Ender’s Game

Predicted Gross: $32.9 million

2. Free Birds

Predicted Gross: $21 million

3. Last Vegas

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million

4. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa

Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Free Birds Box Office Prediction

Not enough animated movies this year after Escape from Planet Earth, The Croods, Epic, Monsters University, Despicable Me 2, Turbo, Planes, and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2? Have no fear – the Thanksgiving themed Free Birds is out Friday.

Featuring the voices of Owen Wilson, Woody Harrelson, and Amy Poehler, Free Birds is the first venture from Reel FX Animation Studios, distributed by Relativity Media. The company was formed to produce modestly budgeted animated titles and Birds comes with a reported $35 million price tag which is small for these types of pics. The best thing Free Birds has going for it is the timing factor. If its halfway decent, this should play pretty well into the Thanksgiving holiday frame and could experience smallish declines from week to week throughout November.

Whether this means it’ll have a big opening is uncertain. The distributor has zero track record so that makes it a little tough to gauge. Anything below $20 million would have to be considered mildly disappointing. It’s rare for any wide release animated feature to fall much below that. A debut in the low 20s range where Turbo and Planes opened seems like a strong possibility. Of course, there’s always the chance this premieres higher than expected, but I’m not prognosticating it.

Free Birds opening weekend prediction: $21 million

For my Ender’s Game prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Last Vegas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

Last Vegas Box Office Prediction

The four stars of Last Vegas are all Oscar winners who have had long and respectable (for the most part) careers. The question is: can the star power of Robert De Niro, Michael Douglas, Morgan Freeman, and Kevin Kline propel this gimmicky sounding exercise to box office success?

You can put me down as highly uncertain. The flexibility on how Last Vegas opens is wide. The pic puts the quartet in a bachelor party setting and The Hangover for senior citizens tag has been thrown around a lot. This is the type of flick that could stall and reach low teens. It could also strike a chord with older audiences and open much bigger than most prognosticators assume – like over $25 million or $30 million. I’m skeptical that Last Vegas reaches those milestones, but I won’t be shocked if it does.

The most sensible prediction is high teens-to low 20s in my view. Still, there’s no doubt that Vegas remains a bit of a question mark to me as neither a $12 million or $32 million debut would totally surprise me.

Last Vegas opening weekend prediction: $19.2 million

For my Ender’s Game opening weekend prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/enders-game-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Birds prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

Ender’s Game Box Office Prediction

Based on a popular series of novels by Orson Scott Card that began in 1985, the sci-fi action pic Ender’s Game arrives in theaters Friday with a reported $110 million budget and a built-in audience that will analyze it closely.

Starring Asa Butterfield as the title character with a solid supporting cast that includes Harrison Ford, Ben Kingsley, True Grit‘s Hailee Steinfeld, Viola Davis, and Abigail Breslin, there is likely hope that Ender’s Game spawns a franchise. The pic has been well promoted and, as mentioned, its source material is known to many.

How will this translate to its opening? There is uncertainty surrounding it. Let’s take a look at some other openings in 2013 for high-profile sci-fi flicks that aren’t sequels:

Pacific Rim opening: $37.2 million

Elysium opening: $29.8 million

After Earth opening: $27.5 million

Ender’s Game currently stands at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes so critics are mostly on its side. The pic should debut at #1 unless other new entries Last Vegas or Free Birds debut bigger than expected. Ender’s Game could eclipse the openings of the aforementioned trio (above $40M is possible), though I’m predicting it’ll fall short of that and below what Pacific Rim managed. A debut in the low to mid 30s seems like the right call.

Ender’s Game opening weekend prediction: $32.9 million

For my Last Vegas opening weekend prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/last-vegas-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Birds prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/free-birds-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 25-27

The three-week domination of Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity is over and it is Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa becoming the only other #1 film in the month of October with an impressive debut. Grandpa earned $32 million in its debut, above my $28.3M prediction. This marks the second highest opening in the Jackass franchise and shows that the series hasn’t even come close to losing any steam.

Gravity fell to the #2 spot with $20.3 million in its fourth frame, slightly below my $21.2M prediction. It currently stands at $199 million and the possibility of reaching $300M domestic is still alive (especially when it starts earning Oscar nominations in the beginning of 2014).

In its third weekend, Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks was third with $11.8 million, slightly higher than my $10.9M estimate. Phillips stands at $70M and should cross the century mark later on.

Ridley Scott’s The Counselor could not capitalize on its all-star cast that included Michael Fassbender, Brad Pitt, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, and Javier Bardem. Riding a wave of mostly negative reviews, The Counselor flopped with only $8 million for a fourth place showing, well below my $13.8M prediction. Moviegoers were simply ambivalent about the pic and I have no doubt that the weak reviews certainly didn’t help.

The Carrie remake received zero help from the Halloween time frame and tumbled 63% in its sophomore frame with only $5.9 million – below my $7.6M estimate. This actually put the horror flick in sixth place and allowed the animated Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 to be #5 with $6.1M.

Outside of the top five, the acclaimed 12 Years a Slave was #8, grossing a robust $2.1 million on only 123 screens. The picture, which is looked at as an Oscar front runner, expands to more screens this Friday.

Be sure to check the blog later today when I’ll have prediction posts up for next weekend’s trio of newbies: Ender’s Game, Last Vegas, and Free Birds.