This coming Friday, the true life hostage drama Captive enters theaters on a reported screen count of a relatively low 800. The film stars David Oyelowo and Kate Mara (fresh off summer flop Fantastic Four). Captive is centered on the 2005 Atlanta case of Brian Nichols (Oyelowo) and his kidnapping of a young woman (Mara).
I suspect that adult moviegoers will be far more preoccupied with Johnny Depp’s Black Mass for this to gain any momentum at the box office. The low theater count doesn’t bode well either.
As I see it, Captive is likely to struggle to even reach $5 million and might fail to reach half that number. It should be available for VOD viewing in no time.
Premiering one year after its predecessor, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials hopes to built upon the solid grosses the franchise began with and perhaps surpass them. The dystopian series, based on popular YA novels by T.S. Nowlin, brings back original stars including Dylan O’Brien and Patricia Clarkson along with some other recognizable faces like Giancarlo Esposito, Barry Pepper and Lili Taylor.
Some prognosticators have Scorch Trails debuting considerably higher than the first film. I’m just not convinced. The original opened on the same weekend last year to the tune of $32.5 million with an eventual domestic gross of $102M. Predictions reflecting a belief that this will manage mid 40s or higher seem a tad lofty for me.
For comparison sake, a similarly themed franchise that began with Divergent made $54 million out of the gate and its sequel this year Insurgent rolled out with a slightly smaller $52 million. I do believe Scorch Trials will outdo the first, but not by much at all.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials opening weekend prediction: $33.8 million
Riding a wave of positive buzz generated from film festivals over the weekend, Scott Cooper’s gangster pic Black Mass rolls out in theaters next Friday and the results could be impressive. A true life story focusing on notorious Boston crime kingpin Whitey Bulger, Johnny Depp plays the title character and it’s nabbed him some of the best reviews he’s had in years. There’s even Oscar talk happening, for Depp and possibly the film itself.
The stellar supporting cast includes Joel Edgerton, Benedict Cumberbatch, Kevin Bacon, Dakota Johnson, Adam Scott, Peter Sarsgaard, and Corey Stoll. Mass is currently at a pleasing 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Most importantly, the pic has been well marketed and represents a real choice for adults after the summer blockbusters are now fading.
While the Maze Runner sequel may capture the attention of younger viewers, I look for Black Mass to have a very healthy start. In fact, I believe the chances of it over performing are greater than the alternative. I think it could exceed $30 million out of the gate, but I’ll put it just under.
Black Mass opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
It’s been a little while, but this evening on the blog – we continue with my ongoing series of Oscar History posts and we’ve arrived at 2009. That year’s Academy Awards are notable for a couple of reasons. First, this was the year where the decision was made to expand the list of Best Picture nominees from five to ten. It’s likely not an accident that this occurred just one year after 2008’s commercial and critical smash The Dark Knight failed to make the five pic cut. This was the Academy’s way of including more commercially successful ventures. After all, there’s a direct correlation between hit pictures being nominated and the ratings of the telecast itself. Secondly, the real battle of nominated entries came down between the efforts of a couple that was married and divorced – James Cameron for his smash hit Avatar (which demolished all box office records) and ex wife Kathryn Bigelow for her war drama The Hurt Locker.
It would be Bigelow who would come out on top as The Hurt Locker would take Best Picture over her ex-husband’s blockbuster. The other eight nominated features: The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, and Up in the Air. The success of Hurt Locker would relegate Avatar to winning only the tech categories.
Up would mark the first animated flick nomination (and first and only Pixar one) since 1991’s Beauty and the Beast and it hasn’t happened since. Basterds would mark Quentin Tarantino’s second pic nod after Pulp Fiction fifteen years prior.
As for movies that might have made my personal cut, I advocate for Steven Soderbergh’s underrated and hilarious The Informant! And if the Academy wanted to include high profile pictures, why not consider the acclaimed Star Trek reboot or comedy smash of the year The Hangover? I’m also a big fan of Zack Snyder’s graphic novel adaptation of Watchmen.
Bigelow would go onto make history by becoming the first female Best Director winner in Oscar history over Cameron, Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), and Tarantino. I may have found room for Neill Blomkamp’s impressive work in District 9.
Beloved actor Jeff Bridges would score his first Best Actor win for Crazy Heart, beating out George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), and Jeremy Renner (Hurt Locker). Firth would go onto win the prize the following year for The King’s Speech. Once again, my Informant! love would have meant an inclusion for Matt Damon’s terrific work in it.
Sandra Bullock would receive her first ever nomination and a win for her hit football drama The Blind Side. Other nominees: Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Mulligan (An Education), Gabourey Sidibe (Precious), and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia). Two names I would’ve considered: Alison Lohman’s great scared crapless work in Sam Raimi’s horror tale Drag Me to Hell and Zooey Deschanel in the rom com (500) Days of Summer.
Quentin Tarantino’s knack of finding the perfect actor in the perfect role landed an at the time unknown Christoph Waltz a win in Supporting Actor for Inglourious Basterds. Other nominees were Matt Damon for Invictus, Woody Harrelson for The Messenger, Christopher Plummer in The Last Station, and Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones. As I’ve mentioned in these posts before, the Academy usually ignores comedies and this race would have given them an excellent opportunity to nominate Zach Galifianakis in The Hangover. Also, I may have included Jackie Earle Haley for his work in Watchmen.
Mo’Nique would win Supporting Actress in Precious over previous year’s winner Penelope Cruz (Nine), Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick (both nominated for Up in the Air), and Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart). I would have given consideration to either Melanie Laurent or Diane Kruger for their roles in Basterds.
And that’s 2009 for you, my friends! I’ll get to 2010 at same point in the future…
As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:
I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.
Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:
The Perfect Guy
Predicted Gross: $21.9 million
2. The Visit
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. 90 Minutes in Heaven
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. War Room
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. A Walk in the Woods
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million
Box Office Results (September 4-7)
As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops
The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.
Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.
The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.
The Telluride Film Festival showcased yet another Oscar hopeful over the weekend and early results are encouraging for Suffragette, particularly for its lead actress. Set in the early 20th century, Suffragette focuses on the women’s voting rights movement in Britain during that era. The pic is directed by Sarah Gavron and written by Abi Morgan, who could both be factors in their respective races. Gavron, in particular, would be appear the Academy’s best chance to include a female in the race.
As for the actors, early reviews are raving about Carey Mulligan’s lead performance; so much so that it’s probably safe to assume her name will be included in Best Actress. The supporting ladies are more of a question mark but the edge would go to Helena Bonham Carter over the lesser known Anne-Marie Duff. Both received good notices. Meryl Streep is in the film too, but her role is reported to be fairly small. Still you can never completely count out the most nominated actress in Academy history.
Over the weekend, I include Suffragette in my predicted eight nominees for Best Picture. The buzz from Telluride confirms that pick. Its inclusion is far from guaranteed, but it’s got a great shot.
We arrive at yet another entry into the Academy Awards derby from the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals (a theme on the blog this weekend) and it’s Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight. The pic is a journalistic expose on the Catholic Church sex scandals from a few years ago and centers on the Boston Globe reporters who broke the story. After its festival rollout, some critics have compared it to All the President’s Men. High praise indeed.
Spotlight boasts a truly impressive ensemble that includes Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, Stanley Tucci and Liev Schreiber. Early reviews suggest it could be a contender in Best Picture, though I didn’t include it in my initial round of predictions from yesterday. It’s certainly one to keep an eye on though when it debuts November 6. It also doesn’t hurt that director McCarthy is well liked in the critical community with indie darlings like The Station Agent and The Visitor to his credit.
As for acting races, most write ups have focused on Michael Keaton and it’s certainly possible he could find himself as a player in Supporting Actor. This may hold especially true considering he had a remarkable comeback role in last year’s Picture winner Birdman. He was nominated for Best Actor, but lost out to Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. The other performers are unlikely to receive much attention.
Once again, as with Steve Jobs and The Danish Girl and Beasts of No Nation, the festival circuit has shined Oscar attention on another picture. As of this weekend, it’s Spotlight.
Over the last couple of awards seasons, Netflix programming has found itself receiving Emmy love with House of Cards and Orange is the New Black. The streaming service could find itself in the 2015 Oscar mix with the release next month of Beasts of No Nation. Cary Fukunaga, last seen directing the wildly acclaimed first season of HBO’s True Detective, helms this tale of a civil war in a West African country. Netflix acquired the rights to the picture for $12 million and it will premiere simultaneously on its service and in theaters on October 16.
Reviews were quite strong after it screened at the Venice Film Festival days ago. Its inclusion in the Best Picture race may be determined on how later fall releases pan out – like The Revenant, Bridge of Spies, The Hateful Eight and Joy, among others. It would appear to be behind such current contenders such as Steve Jobs and Carol. Where Nation is most likely to receive attention is in the Supporting Actor category with Idris Elba playing a nefarious warlord. It’s a performance said to demand attention and Oscar voters may take notice. I didn’t include Elba among the predicted nominees last week, but may need to reconsider when my second batch of prognostications comes in October.
One thing is for sure: for the first time, expect to hear Netflix and Oscar nominations mentioned together for the first time this year.
From the moment the first trailer for Black Mass (out September 18) appeared, you could sense that something special might be brewing with Johnny Depp’s portrayal of notorious Boston gangster Whitey Bulger. Those feelings have been confirmed over the weekend as the picture screened at both the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals.
Critical consensus bore one thing out: Depp’s chilling performance is fantastic. Variety went as far to claim it’s his career best work. This reaction made him as instant major contender in the Best Actor race. When I made my initial predictions three days ago, I left him outside the top five. I’m questioning that call. That said, it remains to be seen who among my projected five would move outside the cut to put Depp in. Both Eddie Redmayne in The Danish Girl and Michael Fassbender in Steve Jobs seem like real contenders. The most vulnerable performer I predicted may be Michael Caine in Youth, though his legendary status will help. The other two I predicted are question marks as their movies have yet to be screened: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Don Cheadle in Miles Ahead. And there’s certainly plenty of time for other actors to emerge. For Depp, after a series of both commercial and critical disappointments (Mortdecai anyone?), the opportunity for Academy voters to vault him into contention could be too enticing to pass up.
As for the film itself, a Best Picture nod or Director nom for Scott Cooper seems far less assured. While its Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at 100%, reviewers are divided as to whether Black Mass is great or merely good. Supporting players Benedict Cumberbatch, Joel Edgerton, and Kevin Bacon may not factor into the mix.
However, this Labor Day weekend made one item very clear: Johnny Depp is a player in this year’s Oscar derby. A big one.
As I’ve made my initial round of Oscar predictions over the past few days on the blog, it seemed somewhat safe to place Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs as a nominee for Best Picture and Director. Same goes for Michael Fassbender in the Actor race as he plays the late tech genius title character and Kate Winslet in Supporting Actress playing a member of Steve’s original MAC team.
Last night, the pic debuted at the Telluride Film Festival and critics are mostly loving what they’re seeing. Fassbender’s work has particularly been singled out and it seems highly unlikely that his name won’t be among the five in Best Actor. Winslet seems like a fairly safe bet as well. In Supporting Actor, Jeff Daniels seems more likely than Seth Rogen but I didn’t include either in my first round of predictions and stick by it (for now).
Several reviewers have noted Jobs as a companion piece to 2010’s The Social Network, David Fincher’s terrific tale of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. Some have even said Jobs is better. That bodes extremely well for its chances at Picture and Director nods. It also seems virtually guaranteed that Aaron Sorkin will see his screenplay recognized in Adapted Screenplay. Steve Jobs is out October 9.
As the film festivals continue to roll out, look for several posts in the next few days outlining pictures likely to be in the mix and others that may not be.
