Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: June 12-14

Just like they did 22 summers ago, the dinosaurs shall rule the box office this weekend as Jurassic World should easily dominate. The fourth entry in the franchise looks to score the third best opening weekend of 2015 (following Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7). You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/06/05/jurassic-world-box-office-prediction/

With Jurassic being the only new film in release, that leaves holdovers. Current champ Spy should have the smallest decline while Insidious: Chapter 3 is likely to suffer the largest, as horror pics usually do.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Jurassic World

Predicted Gross: $123.5 million

2. Spy

Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

3. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

4. Insidious: Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Entourage

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 45%)

Box Office Results (June 5-7)

As expected, the critically acclaimed Melissa McCarthy comedy Spy debuted at #1. However, its $29 million take did not match the openings of her 2013 efforts Identity Thief or The Heat and didn’t come close to my $42.1M prediction. This is still a solid opening for McCarthy and it should suffer smallish declines in coming weekends.

San Andreas dropped to second with $25.8 million, just above my $24.3M projection. The hit disaster thriller has amassed $98.4M in its two weeks of release.

Insidious: Chapter 3 couldn’t come close to what part 2 accomplished, but it still managed a commendable $22.6 million, under my $26M estimate. As mentioned above, look for it to fade fast, however.

The film version of HBO’s Entourage had a muted opening with $10.2 million, just below my $11.2M prediction. The five-day gross of $17.6 million (it opened on Wednesday) did just manage to outpace my $16.5M projection.

I incorrectly had Pitch Perfect 2 at fifth with an estimate of $8.4 million, but it was sixth with my $7.5M (its total stands at $160.8M). Mad Max: Fury Road ended up taking the five spot with $7.8 million to bring its cume to $130.6M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Oscar Watch – Mad Max: Fury Road

A month ago it may have seemed a far fetched notion, but a current summer blockbuster begs the question – could Mad Max: Fury Road score a Best Picture nomination come Oscar time? It’s possible. George Miller’s reboot and his fourth directorial effort in the franchise (some 30 years after the last one) has received high critical acclaim and fine box office numbers. Rotten Tomatoes has it at 98% and that’s certainly greater than some other Academy nominated flicks will receive.

The solid argument could be made that it’s precisely movies like Fury Road that caused the Academy to expand its number of Picture nominees in 2009 to anywhere from five to ten. It happened immediately after the enormously grossing and critically lauded Dark Knight failed to make the five picture cut the year prior. Obviously much will depend on what follows in the next six and a half months but don’t count out Max for potential Oscar attention. Same goes for its well regarded auteur Miller.

Even if it doesn’t score a nomination for the top category, it could show up elsewhere. While stars Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron are unlikely to find themselves in the acting mix, don’t be surprised if it lands nominations in the following down ticket races: Production Design, Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Visual Effects.

Jurassic World Box Office Prediction

Nearly 22 years to the day after Steven Spielberg’s dino adventure Jurassic Park invaded theaters in the summer of 1993, Colin Trevorrow’s reboot Jurassic World should rule the box office when it opens Friday. It’s the fourth entry in the franchise, but the first in fourteen years and there’s been proper time for nostalgia to increase, while still allowing young viewers to want to flock and see the cool prehistoric creatures wreaking havoc. Chris Pratt, who headlined 2014’s largest summer blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy, stars with Bryce Dallas Howard and Vincent D’Onofrio supporting.

When the original Jurassic opened, its $47 million opening weekend take marked the biggest domestic debut of all time. It now ranks 197th. Jurassic World looks to easily double and threaten to triple what came before it over two decades ago. The pic looks to have the third highest domestic debut weekend of 2015, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7.

As I see it, this should pretty easily top $100 million out of the gate. It is the only wide release next weekend as competitors steered clear. The question is – by how much? I look for Jurassic World to flirt with $125M but fall just a bit under it for a rock solid premiere.

Jurassic World opening weekend prediction: $123.5 million

Selma Movie Review

Like Spielberg’s Lincoln that preceded it two years prior, Ana DuVernay’s Selma sidesteps the idea of a biopic and rather focuses on a short but integral passage of time in its subject’s life. The focus is on Martin Luther King Jr. and the 1965 Voting Rights marches in Selma, Alabama. The film provides a history lesson that takes strides to not portray its central figure purely as a saint – nor does its perspective shy away from criticism of President Lyndon B. Johnson, while also acknowledging his achievements.

The film opens with King (David Oyelowo) and wife Coretta (Carmen Ejojo) in Norway circa 1964 to accept his Nobel Peace Prize. They speak of an alternative lifestyle in the opening scene that doesn’t involve the constant threat of death and his constant search for equal rights and justice. The couple seems to know that this is only talk and it is not what he’s destined for. Back home, the recent signing of the Civil Rights Act by President Johnson (Tom Wilkinson) has done little in the South to allow African Americans the right to vote. And this sets off a decision by King to organize a march in Selma that is met with Johnson’s objections, though not near to the level of Alabama Governor George Wallace (Tim Roth).

Director DuVernay and screenwriter Paul Webb do not shy away from showing us the brutality that took place in this era in the South. We also witness the goodness of people of many faiths and races who come to lend their support to Dr. King in his efforts. It is not one march on Selma – it’s three. The first ends in violent resistance from the police. The second time it’s halted is due to a more surprising manner of resistance. The third is history. The filmmakers also tackle the Kings marital status, including Dr. King’s infidelities.

His political skills are shown as well and they are often as powerful as his oratory abilities. The scenes with King and LBJ have been challenged by some for inaccuracy, but this is not a documentary and I won’t judge it as such. My only drawback to these sequences are Wilkinson, a fine actor that’s simply not the right choice for the 36th POTUS.

The flaws don’t stop there. The complex relationship between King and Malcolm X is touched upon so briefly that it begs for further fleshing out. Adding familiar faces like Martin Sheen and Cuba Gooding Jr. for cameos threaten to take you out of the story than involve you more.

Where it delivers is its willingness to tell this important story as a real one. A human one. King is a great man, but is written as experiencing the doubts and insecurities that he must have had. Oyelowo nails the role and he excels at embodying MLK’s mannerisms and spirit.

Selma tells the story of imperfect men fighting for a more perfect union. The film is imperfect as well but it’s worthy of its important subject matter that might have occurred a half century ago, but still resonates on many levels today.

*** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: June 5-7

As the June box office session begins, we have three new pictures opening in the marketplace: the Melissa McCarthy action comedy Spy, horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 3 and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/30/spy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/insidious-chapter-3-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/entourage-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Spy (which has received rave reviews) should easily come out of the gate at #1. The battle for second could be fierce between Insidious and current champ San Andreas, which had a larger than anticipated premiere (more on that below). I expect the third Insidious to just make it to the #2 position. I have Entourage placing fourth with Pitch Perfect 2 rounding out the top five in its fourth weekend.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

1. Spy

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million

2. Insidious: Chapter 3

Predicted Gross: $26 million

3. San Andreas

Predicted Gross: $24.3 million (representing a drop of 55%)

4. Entourage

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million ($16.5 million predicted for its five-day gross)

5. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 29-31)

Dwayne Johnson’s disaster flick San Andreas had anything but a disastrous opening with a higher than expected $54.5 million, easily topping my $43.4M projection. The pic was pretty much critic proof and audiences responded with a solid A- Cinemascore grade to give its star yet another hit, not even two months after his participation in the massive Furious 7.

Holdovers dipped further from their Memorial Day grosses than I anticipated as Pitch Perfect 2 was second with $14.8 million (I said $18.5M). The high grossing sequel has amassed $147.5M so far.

The bad news continued for Brad Bird’s Tomorrowland, which has undeniably become one of the season’s early disappointments. It experienced a precipitous drop in its sophomore frame with $14.3 million for third place, below my generous $19.1M prediction. Its two week total is at $63M and it probably won’t reach the $100M mark.

Mad Max: Fury Road took fourth with $14.1 million, just below my $15M estimate for an impressive total three week tally of $116.4M. Avengers: Age of Ultron was fifth with $11.4 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The Marvel superhero juggernaut has made $427.5M at press time.

Cameron Crowe’s critically panned Aloha was DOA for a sixth place debut with just $9.6 million, well under my $18.2M projection. Audiences weren’t impressed with what they saw either with a lackluster B- Cinemascore grade. You can read my review of it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/aloha-movie-review/

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Entourage Box Office Prediction

Vinnie, E, Johnny Drama, Turtle and Ari go from the small screen to the big one as Entourage debuts in theaters this Wednesday. Based upon the HBO series that ran from 2004 to 2011, the studio is hoping to recapture the magic that allowed Sex and the City to become a huge silver screen blockbuster.

Kevin Connolly, Adrian Grenier, Kevin Dillon, Jeremy Piven and Jerry Ferrara reprise their aforementioned roles with Billy Bob Thornton and a host of celebrity cameos in the mix. They include Liam Neeson, Tom Brady and the show and picture’s executive producer Mark Wahlberg. Entourage may suffer from hurdles preventing it from becoming a success at the multiplex. First, while the show was acclaimed – many critics and viewers felt it had worn out its welcome and lost quality by the culmination of its pay cable run. Second, there’s another comedy in town premiering as Melissa McCarthy’s Spy looks to have a solid start. Its most hardcore fans should push it to a mid to high teens five day haul and it’ll likely fade soon afterwards.

Entourage opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Spy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/30/spy-box-office-prediction/

For my Insidious: Chapter 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/insidious-chapter-3-box-office-prediction/

Aloha Movie Review

Cameron Crowe’s Aloha further marks a trip down mediocrity lane for a filmmaker that has graced us with Say Anything, Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. For me, his last worthy effort was 2001’s Vanilla Sky, which occasionally lacked focus but its merits outweighed its demerits. The same cannot be said for everything in Crowe’s oeuvre that’s followed – Elizabethtown, We Bought a Zoo and now this. Aloha is a strange mix of romance, comedy, drama, Hawaiian mysticism and corporate and military industrialism that never feels cohesive. The various aspects of the screenplay never quite gel. The casting decisions, packed with top notch talent, are a mixed bag. There are moments that remind us of Crowe’s greatness, but not many.

Bradley Cooper stars as Brian, a defense contractor who travels to Hawaii to assist a billionaire business mogul (a subdued Bill Murray) on a shady deal. Emma Stone is Allison Ng, the Air Force pilot whose task it is to assist him and, of course, fall for him. Rachel McAdams is Brian’s “one that got away”, an old flame now married to John Krasinki’s strong and very silent service officer. We jump back and forth wondering which woman Brian will try to end up with. Crowe’s screenplay keeps us busy with not only the romance angle but our central character’s occupational hazards with Murray and Alec Baldwin and Danny McBride’s military personnel roles. There’s a lot of plot happening here coupled with many stories of Hawaiin lore. Simply put, it never really comes together in satisfactory fashion.

I appreciated Krasinski’s work and his non talking nature allows for some humorous moments. Yet there isn’t a performance here for any of the famous faces matching their best work. It’s when Crowe allows his performers to be quiet for a moment that shine, like Murray and Stone dancing to Hall and Oates in a nicely constructed sequence. As good as Stone can be and usually is, she’s miscast here and her part is not written well (her explained Chinese and Hawaiian heritage feels a bit stretched).

We get the family drama involved with Brian and the McAdams clan that we see from a mile away mixed with his involvement with Ng and then back to Murray’s increasingly nefarious corporate magnet. It switches so much that it never allows us to care much about any of it. Cameron Crowe’s lesser work still provides glimpses of his unique voice in cinema. Over the last decade, those moments are becoming more and more sparse and there’s not enough gorgeous scenery of our 49th state to make up for it.

** (out of four)

Insidious: Chapter 3 Box Office Prediction

Focus Features has had a nice little horror cash cow in the Insidious franchise and the third edition hits theaters Friday. Chapter 3 is a prequel and therefore original stars of its predecessors Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne are nowhere to be found (in fact Byrne is busy this weekend with Spy).

Dermot Mulroney and Stefanie Scott headline with Leigh Whannell making his directorial debut after writing chapters 1 and 2. Insidious: Chapter 2 surprised prognosticators when it landed a $40 million debut in September 2013. It would be a bit of a shocker to see this follow up post that number, but you never know. I believe this will manage a start in the mid to high 20s, settling for second to Melissa McCarthy’s Spy.

Insidious: Chapter 3 opening weekend prediction: $26 million

For my Spy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/30/spy-box-office-prediction/

For my Entourage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/entourage-box-office-prediction/

Spy Box Office Prediction

Ever since Bridesmaids some four years ago, Melissa McCarthy has become a potent box office force and while her comedies have yielded financially pleasing returns, critics haven’t always been on her side – see last summer’s Tammy. This Friday’s Spy is a notable exception as it boasts a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. The action comedy pairs her yet again with her Bridesmaids and The Heat director Paul Feig. The supporting cast includes Jason Statham, Rose Byrne, Jude Law and Allison Janney.

McCarthy’s star power plus the critical love should lead to a very nice debut for Spy. As I see it, the question is whether or not it manages to top the $39 million earned by The Heat to create McCarthy’s largest domestic opening of all time. I am predicting it’ll just manage to get there and its solid word of mouth should continue its healthy run forward for the weeks to come.

Spy opening weekend prediction: $42.1 million

For my Entourage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/entourage-box-office-prediction/

For my Insidious: Chapter 3 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/31/insidious-chapter-3-box-office-prediction/

A Love Letter to Ohio

At the end of his celebratory press conference after reaching the NBA Finals in his first year back with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Lebron James said the following (as I minorly paraphrase):

Nothing is guaranteed.

I can’t guarantee the championship.

But I promise we’ll play our (butts) off.

He used a different word.

That, my friends, is Ohio. That encapsulates the spirit of the Buckeye State and its people.

For sports fans in this state, there’s been some magic happening here in Ohio lately. From a favorite son of Akron who had gone astray to taste victory in South Beach returning home to a third string quarterback at THE Ohio State University defying all odds to bring a championship to the state. It’s the kind of thing that would be just entirely too unrealistic for a movie. Yet truth in Ohio is stranger than the fictional robots and superheroes and A Capella singers on our summer screens.

Let’s stay on the entertainment tip for a second. Don’t think Ohio has much connection to the world of film? We got the guy who invented the motion picture camera named Edison. There was also a director named Spielberg born here. And actors named Clark Gable and Paul Newman and Bob Hope for starters. A comedian named Dave Chappelle. That beloved fictional President named Josiah Bartlett? That guy who played him is from Ohio. As is his press secretary C.J. And his advisor Sam and that means Ohio is home to Rob Lowe and Peaked in High School Rob Lowe and Super Creepy Rob Lowe. Superman may be from Krypton but the duo that actually created him are straight outta Cleveland. Bart Simpson’s voice was first heard here. So were these voices… Dean Martin, Dwight Yoakam, Dave Grohl, Marilyn Manson, Roy Rogers.

Forget the fictional presidents. We’ve had 8 real ones. Ohioans built the first airplane. An Ohioan was the first man to orbit the Earth. An Ohioan was the first man on the moon. An Ohioan was the first to knock out Mike Tyson, whether for real or in the video game.

The list goes on and on with countless athletes and other game changers to mention like Jack’s Nicklaus and Hanna. Woody. Lebron. Ted Turner. Gloria Steinem. Cy Young. Jesse Owens. Scrawny Arms Rob Lowe.

Ohioans know this rich history and appreciate and value it. We also know it’s not always sunshine and rainbows and gold pants. There has been severe economic turmoil in recent times that seemed nearly insurmountable. There have been sports droughts that also appeared to be never ending. And it continues… Just who IS the Browns QB this week?

I’ve listed a lot of notable Ohioans, but the people who’ve inspired me in Ohio have not been famous. It’s been the same people that inspire you. Family. Friends. Coworkers. It’s the same people that inspired those notable folks in the paragraphs above. That’s Ohio. If you’re reading this from another state – have no fear. I’m sure your state is special too – but this post is about MY state. And it’s something else.

So we can look back in pride at these last few years in Ohio history. The state has dug itself out of recession to prosperity. It seemed impossible but it happened with dedicated people leading us there. Our football team had a field general who no one had heard of a couple months beforehand that led us to the promised land. Our professional basketball team lost a prodigal son only to watch him journey back and lead us to the possibility of a championship we haven’t seen in over half a century.

As that Ohioan said, it’s not guaranteed. That being said, from the air above the clouds all the way to the moon to the camera that allows for the subject this blog is usually focused on, Ohioans play their butts off trying. And that’s why I love calling it home.