Five and a half years after their successful collaboration The Other Guys, Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg team up once again for Daddy’s Home, out Christmas Day. The tale pitting stepdad (Ferrell) vs. real dad (Wahlberg) looks to bring in comedy fans over the holiday weekend. Costars include Linda Cardellini, Hannibal Buress, and Thomas Haden Church.
It has the advantage of being the only straight up comedy (Joy has elements) opening, but it will have to contend with competition from the second frame of Sisters starring Ferrell’s former SNL costars Tina Fey and Amy Poehler. With so many other movies in the marketplace, Daddy’s Home stands no realistic shot at matching the $35 million debut for The Other Guys or the $33 million premiere of Ferrell’s last outing Get Hard, which had the advantage of also starring Kevin Hart. The more likely scenario is making about half those numbers out of the gate.
As I see it, this stands a real shot at having the highest opening of the five Christmas Day features, but that still may only mean a gross in the mid to high teens as it hopes to experience small declines in future weekends.
Daddy’s Home opening weekend prediction: $16.5 million
It’s a weekend that box office prognosticators like myself have been waiting for all year long! Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the fourth Alvin and the Chipmunks film has arrived!!!
OK… in all seriousness, you may have heard of the big picture arriving this weekend called Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The seventh episode of the beloved franchise has been breathlessly awaited and it stands a shot at breaking pretty much every box office record there is. I truly feel it could gross anywhere from $170-$275 million out of the gate so I basically split the difference. That means my prediction does have it devouring the all time opening weekend record posted by Jurassic World this summer. It is worth noting that other estimators are saying this will come under what Jurassic accomplished, but we shall see. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:
Somewhat surprisingly, other studios are premiering new product in hopes of serving as counter programming to The Force. We have the aforementioned Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Tina Fey/Amy Poehler comedy Sisters. I look for them to have fairly soft openings and have a close competition for second place. On the bright side, both titles could continue to play well and experience small declines into further holiday weekends. My prediction posts on both of them can be found here:
As for holdovers, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 will finally fall from its four week perch atop the charts. In the Heart of the Sea got off to a lackluster start (more on that below) and I actually expect it to drop farther percentage wise than The Good Dinosaur and Creed.
And with that, my top seven predictions for what could be a historic weekend:
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Predicted Gross: $234.7 million
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Sisters
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 38%)
5. The Good Dinosaur
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)
6. Creed
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
7. In the Heart of the Sea
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results: December 11-13
Ron Howard’s $100 million whale tale In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth was crushed by a wave of audience ambivalence with a gross of just $11 million, well under my $18.4M estimate. The pic, which received mixed reviews, simply didn’t capture the attention of adventure fans who may be biding their time until this weekend.
That allowed The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 to stay #1 for the fourth weekend in a row with $11.3 million, just topping my $10.5M projection. The franchise finale has taken in $244 million.
Pixar’s disappointing The Good Dinosaur was third with $10.5 million, ahead of my $9.4M prediction for a total of $89 million. This is well below the standards of what its studio is accustomed to and it remains on track to be Pixar’s smallest earner. On the bright side for parent company Disney, they’ve got a pretty high profile release out this weekend…
Creed took fourth with $10.1 million, a bit higher than my $9.1M estimate for an overall tally of $79 million. This looks to be the first Rocky flick to top $100M since Rocky IV some thirty years ago.
Krampus was fifth in its second weekend with $8.4 million, topping my $7.3M projection. Its taken in a tidy $28 million at press time and is performing solidly for a relatively low budget horror comedy.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time… May The Force Be With You…
Since his highest grossing picture ever some eight years back with The Bourne Ultimatum, Matt Damon has seen his share of critical and or commercial box office disappointments. This list includes such titles as Green Zone, Hereafter, The Adjustment Bureau, We Bought a Zoo, Elysium, and The Monuments Men.
Yet 2015 gave Mr. Damon his second largest hit of all time with The Martian, a science fiction epic (and comedy according to the Golden Globes) that captured the favor of critics as well. In fact, the Mars tale is likely to find itself the subject of Academy Awards nominations and that could extend to its star.
The Martian stands at $222 million in domestic grosses and is within ever so close reach of Damon’s pinnacle gross of $227M that Ultimatum topped out at. The film also served as a resurgent project for director Ridley Scott after a series of financial disappointments including Body of Lies, Robin Hood, Prometheus, The Counselor and Exodus: Gods and Kings.
For Damon, 2016 will return him to the Jason Bourne role that gave him his famous franchise. And it’s The Martian that easily gave him his most acclaimed part since that series.
For close to a decade, Tom Hardy has been turning up in mostly high profile supporting roles and became a household name thanks to one Christopher Nolan. His breakout came in Nicolas Winding Refn’s acclaimed indie pic Bronson. The aforementioned Nolan took notice and soon Hardy found himself cast alongside Leonardo DiCaprio in Inception and as villain Bane in The Dark Knight Rises. Other notable appearances along the way include Warrior, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Lawless, Locke, and The Drop.
It’s been an impressive filmography but 2015 put the 38 year old Brit into a whole new stratosphere. This summer he took over the role made famous by Mel Gibson in Mad Max: Fury Road and the results were a worldwide box office smash that is gaining momentum for a Best Picture nomination.
This fall, he starred in Legend which cast him in the dual role of real life gangsters The Kray Brothers. Reviews were mixed, but Hardy earned raves for his work.
The calendar year will end with him paired up with DiCaprio once again in the eagerly anticipated The Revenant, which is also subject to plenty of Oscar buzz. In fact, it looks more probable than not that two Academy nominees for Best Picture will feature Mr. Hardy. He also could find himself in line for his own first Oscar recognition in Supporting Actor for The Revenant.
With three buzzworthy features to his credit in 2015, it was a furiously good year for this actor.
For over a decade, Elizabeth Banks has popped up memorably in comedic and dramatic roles in everything from Catch Me If You Can to Seabiscuit to the Spider-Man trilogy to The 40 Yr. Old Virgin to W. to The Hunger Games franchise.
Yet 2015 has been the year which has undoubtedly catapulted Banks to new and unanticipated heights. She made her directorial debut with this summer’s Pitch Perfect 2 and along with it came a record. The massive $69 million opening for the pic earned her bragging rights for largest opening of all time for a first time director. She appeared in the smash hit as well. The $184 million domestic take of the sequel guarantees Ms. Banks many more opportunities behind the camera.
Around the same time, she was co-starring alongside John Cusack and Paul Dano in the acclaimed Brian Wilson biopic Love & Mercy. For her work, she is in the running to receive her first Oscar nomination.
Her terrific year capped off with her turning up for the final time as crowd favorite Effie in The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2. Three examples of the best year yet for not only a talented actress, but a suddenly hot director.
Prior to 2015, not many knew the name Alicia Vikander but that has certainly changed and the 27 year old Swedish actress looks primed for Oscar attention and stateside stardom. In the spring, her role as robot Ava in Alex Garland’s science fiction sleeper hit Ex Machina garnered Vikander well deserved attention.
The momentum has kept up this fall with her role in Tom Hooper’s The Danish Girl, in which Vikander is expected to land (and potentially win) the Supporting Actress category at the Academy Awards. There’s even a long shot possibility that she could be nominated for both of the aforementioned pictures.
Ms. Vikander did also appear in two other high profile efforts that failed to perform well – The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and Burnt. Yet her exposure this year has led to choice projects in 2016: 17th century drama Tulip Fever with Dane DeHaan and Christoph Waltz, The Light Between Oceans alongside Michael Fassbender, and what will surely be her most mainstream pic to date, the untitled fifth Jason Bourne flick with Matt Damon.
All in all, Vikander made a big impression in 2015 that is bound to carry on.
Director Judd Apatow has had a fine history of bringing comedic performers known more for their small screen work to silver screen glory. Steve Carell in The 40 Yr. Old Virgin. Seth Rogen in Knocked Up. Kristin Wiig and Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids (which he produced).
It happened yet again in 2015 with Amy Schumer for this summer’s Trainwreck, a critically acclaimed box office hit which gave the celebrated comedienne her inaugural starring vehicle. Schumer made the most of it, writing the script and giving Apatow a bit of a comeback vehicle after a couple of commercial disappointments. The pic earned $110 million stateside (and an 85% Rotten Tomatoes rating) while giving humorous supporting roles to Bill Hader, Tilda Swinton, and even LeBron James.
2015 has been a watershed year for Ms. Schumer. In addition to her considerable film success, her Comedy Central show “Inside Amy Schumer” was nominated for five Emmys (after winning a Peabody last year) and she capped the year off with an HBO stand-up special.
Expect to see lots more of Schumer on the big screen as she is currently working on a buddy comedy with her buddy, Jennifer Lawrence. We will certainly remember this year as the one which turned her into a movie star.
And now we’ve arrived at my weekly Oscar predictions for the eight biggest categories and yes, things have changed in one week. Most notably, many critics precursor awards have been announced and just in the last 48 hours, nominations for the SAG and Golden Globe awards have been revealed. The past week’s activity has given a huge boost to Mad Max: Fury Road‘s inclusion into the Best Picture race and I’m including it for the first time. Other pics that have received some momentum: Carol, Trumbo (in acting races), and possibly The Big Short.
For the first time, I’m ceasing to list my predicted nominees and other possibilities alphabetically. We are now switching to where I’m listing according to my thoughts on their probability of being nominated.
And here we go, my friends:
Best Picture
Spotlight
The Revenant
Room
Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Brooklyn
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Other Possibilities:
10. Inside Out
11. The Big Short
12. Creed
13. Steve Jobs
14. Beasts of No Nation
15. Straight Outta Compton
16. The Danish Girl
17. Son of Saul
18. Anomalisa
19. Trumbo
20. Joy
21. Sicario
22. Love and Mercy
23. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Mad Max: Fury Road, Out: Inside Out
Best Director
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Todd Haynes, Carol
Other Possibilities:
6. Lenny Abrahamson, Room
7. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
8. Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
9. John Crowley, Brooklyn
10. Ryan Coogler, Creed
11. Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation
12. Adam McKay, The Big Short
13. Laszlo Nemes, Son of Saul
14. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
15. David O. Russell, Joy
16. Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl
17. J.J. Abrams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Todd Haynes. Out: Lenny Abrahamson
Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Johnny Depp, Black Mass
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Other Possibilities:
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Will Smith, Concussion
8. Michael B. Jordan, Creed
9. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
10. Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
11. Michael Caine, Youth
12. Steve Carell, The Big Short
13. Geza Rohrig, Son of Saul
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Bryan Cranston. Out: Matt Damon
Best Actress
Brie Larson, Room
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Other Possibilities:
6. Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams
7. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
8. Sarah Silverman, I Smile Back
9. Helen Mirren, Woman in Gold
10. Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
11. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
12. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
What’s Changed Since Last Week – NO CHANGES
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Michael Keaton, Spotlight
Paul Dano, Love and Mercy
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Other Possibilities:
6. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
7. Christian Bale, The Big Short
8. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
9. Benicio del Toro, Sicario
10. Michael Shannon, 99 Homes
11. Jacob Tremblay, Room
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: Paul Dano and Idris Elba. Out: Tom Hardy and Mark Ruffalo
Best Supporting Actress
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Rooney Mara, Carol
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Jane Fonda, Youth
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
7. Helen Mirren, Trumbo
8. Joan Allen, Room
9. Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy
10. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
11. Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
What’s Changed Since Last Week: NO CHANGES
Best Original Screenplay
Spotlight
The Hateful Eight
Inside Out
Bridge of Spies
Son of Saul
Other Possibilities:
6. Love and Mercy
7. Straight Outta Compton
8. 99 Homes
9. Joy
10. Sicario
11. Ex Machina
12. Trainwreck
What’s Changed Since Last Week – IN: Son of Saul. Out: Love and Mercy
Best Adapted Screenplay
Carol
Steve Jobs
Room
Brooklyn
The Big Short
Other Possibilities:
6. The Revenant
7. The Martian
8. Anomalisa
9. Beasts of No Nation
10. Trumbo
11. Creed
12. The Danish Girl
What’s Changed Since Last Week – In: The Big Short. Out: Anomalisa.
And that’ll do it for this week’s predictions! Stay tuned for next Friday’s picks…
After four years of box office dormancy, Alvin and Simon and Theodore bring their CGI rodent selves back to the silver screen for the fourth time in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip. Jason Lee returns as Dave along with a voice over cast including Justin Long, Jesse McCartney, Christina Applegate, Anna Faris and Kaley Cuoco.
The chipmunk franchise has been a gold mine for 20th Century Fox. The 2007 original was a surprise smash with a $44 million premiere and a $217 million domestic take. Its 2009 sequel The Squeakquel improved on that performance with a $48 million three day and $75 million holiday start and eventual $219 million haul. Two years later, third pic Chipwrecked saw fortunes go down with a $23 million opening and $133 million overall showing.
The Road Chip faces two hurdles that could be equally troubling: the four year layoff (where kiddie franchise fans have now grown up) and the fact that it opens against Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which will undoubtedly bring in a massive family audience.
Considering those factors, this fourth chip down 80s cartoon memory lane should find itself with the weakest debut of the series thus far.
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip opening weekend prediction: $14.3 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
Nearly eight years after they had a decent size hit with Baby Mama, Tina Fey and Amy Poehler team up again for Sisters, out next Friday. The modestly budgeted $30 million comedy also stars Maya Rudolph, John Leguizamo, Ike Barinholtz, John Cena, James Brolin, and Dianne Wiest.
Universal Pictures is hoping that Sisters will appeal to a female demographic that may not be chomping at the bit to see Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which this bravely opens against. The two stars certainly have their fans and the strategy may work. 2008’s Baby Mama earned $17.4 million out of the gate and an eventual gross of a sturdy $64 million.
Based on the competition alone, I feel Sisters will struggle to reach that opening number next weekend yet it could manage close to Mama’s grosses if it performs well over the subsequent holiday weekends.
Sisters opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million
For my Star Wars: The Force Awakens prediction, click here:
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