The laughs in Fackham Hall starts with the title (say it out loud… it won’t take you long). With a screenplay whose co-writers include comedian Jimmy Carr, Jim O’Hanlon directs the British spoof that primarily sends up Downton Abbey. The cast includes Damian Lewis, Thomasin McKenzie, Ben Radcliffe, Katherine Waterston, and Tom Felton.
Distributor Bleecker Street is putting Hall out this weekend domestically with the U.K. release on December 12th. Reviews are saying it mostly succeeds with 81% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 69 Metacritic. No, this is not an Oscar contender (shocker), but there are comedy specific categories at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. It probably wouldn’t play at those ceremonies either and it is likely arriving too late in the calendar anyway for voters to notice it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Nominations for the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards will be unveiled tomorrow morning before its telecast on January 4th. With Chelsea Handler returning to host, it is one of the higher profile Oscar precursors. This awards branch is traditionally hesitant to honor international titles though titles No Other Choice and The Secret Agent popped up on their shortlists for consideration and recent pics like Roma, Parasite, and RRR made the cut. Speaking of, this is the first year where CCA unveiled shortlists for a number of below the line races.
Like the Oscars, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. Last year, 9 out of 10 CCA nominees got a BP nod from the Academy. It was 8 the previous two years so this is a decent barometer for what’s to come. Unlike the Oscars, there were 8 nominated Directors (at least there was last year), but apparently only six this time around and 6 hopefuls in other categories.
Here are my predictions with an alternate for each competition:
Best Picture
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Bugonia
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Alternate – Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Alternate – Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Alternate – George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate – Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Weapons
Alternate – The Secret Agent
Best Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Alternate – Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Comedy
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
The Phoenician Scheme
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate – The Naked Gun
Best Ensemble
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – A House of Dynamite
Best Foreign Language Film
It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirât
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Alternate – Left-Handed Girl
Best Animated Film
Arco
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Ne Zha 2
Scarlet
Zootopia 2
Alternate – Elio
Best Cinematography
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Train Dreams
Alternate – Jay Kelly
Best Costume Design
Frankenstein
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Editing
A House of Dynamite
F1
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Hamnet
Best Hair and Makeup
28 Years Later
Frankenstein
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Hedda
Best Original Score
A House of Dynamite
Bugonia
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Alternate – Frankenstein
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“Highest 2 Lowest” from Highest 2 Lowest
“I Lied to You” from Sinners
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Alternate – “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
Best Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Warfare
Best Stunt Ensemble
Ballerina
F1
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Superman
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Fantastic Four: First Steps
F1
Frankenstein
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Alternate – Mickey 17
Best Young Actor/Actress
Everett Blunck, The Plague
Miles Caton, Sinners
Cary Christopher, Weapons
Aidan Delbis, Bugonia
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet
Alternate – Alfie Williams, 28 Years Later
That means I am predicting the following number of nominations for these films:
17 Nominations
Sinners
16 Nominations
One Battle After Another
11 Nominations
Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good
10 Nominations
Hamnet
9 Nominations
Frankenstein
8 Nominations
Sentimental Value
5 Nominations
Bugonia, Jay Kelly, Train Dreams
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Weapons
3 Nominations
It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
2 Nominations
A House of Dynamite, KPop Demon Hunters, The Secret Agent
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, Arco, Ballerina, Blue Moon, Diane Warren: Relentless, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Highest 2 Lowest, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Ne Zha 2, The Phoenician Scheme, The Plague, Scarlet, Sirât, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow has a runtime to match the length of its title and it might have a shot at a Best Documentary Feature nom at the Oscars. Russian born filmmaker Julia Loktev helms the exploration of mostly female journalists in her native country. Clocking in at 324 minutes, Moscow was first screened at the New York Film Festival in 2024 before playing other fests this year.
As precursors have begun to name their best of’s, visibility has risen for the five-hour (so far) project. It won best doc at the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Circle this week. Recently the Critics’ Choice Documentary voters nominated it for their Best Political Documentary though it lost to The Alabama Solution. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 100% with Metacritic at 94.
The documentary branch at the Academy can be tough to predict. I haven’t had Moscow in my top 10 possibilities for the race, but don’t be surprised if that changes in my next update this weekend. With precursors and those reviews, discounting it might be a mistake. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 looks to challenge Zootopia 2 for box office supremacy as anime offering Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution is also unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers for the post Thanksgiving frame here:
I am not sold on Freddy’s 2 despite its predecessor’s sizzling $80 million start two years ago. As I explained in my write-up, I suspect a decent portion of its fanbase won’t turn up and my mid to high 30s take gives it runner-up status.
As for Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution, the genre has been on fire lately but this pre-screening of the TV show’s forthcoming third season may settle for fourth place and mid single digits.
Considering my reservations about Freddy’s, that would leave Zootopia 2 in first after an impressive premiere (more on that below). A mid 50s drop should be on the way.
Wicked: For Good‘s third frame decline could be even more pronounced for third position while Now You See Me: Now You Don’t should complete the top five in a sequel heavy lineup.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Zootopia 2
Predicted Gross: $43.1 million
2. Five Nights at Freddy’s 2
Predicted Gross: $36.5 million
3. Wicked: For Good
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
4. Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Now You See Me: Now You Don’t
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million
Box Office Results (November 28-30)
Zootopia 2, as projected, easily managed the second best Turkey weekend opening behind Disney’s Moana 2 from last year. It also scored huge in China which helped contribute to it having the best animated worldwide debut of all time and the fourth best overall. With $100.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $158.8 million domestically since Wednesday, it did fall below my respective takes of $112.4 million and $184.3 million. Admittedly I took the over.
I should’ve taken the under on Wicked: For Good. A year ago, part 1 eased a mere 28% in its Thanksgiving sophomore outing. The follow-up fell 58% to $61.7 million while I called for $82 million. Nevertheless its two-week tally stands at a soaring $269 million.
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t was third in weekend #3 with $6.9 million, a tad ahead of my $6.2 million prediction for $49 million thus far.
Predator: Badlands was fourth in its fourth go-round with $4.8 million (I said $4.6 million). The franchise entry has $85 million in its coffers as it should come close to nine digits stateside.
The Running Man rounded out the top five with $3.7 million, in line with my $3.4 million forecast for an underwhelming $34 million in three weeks.
Finally, rom com Eternity with Miles Teller and Elizabeth Olsen was sixth out of the gate with $3.1 million over the traditional weekend and $5.2 million since Wednesday. That’s in range with my respective takes of $3 million and $4.4 million.
Nigerian family drama My Father’s Shadow has been playing the festival circuit for months beginning at Cannes and continuing to Toronto. It marks the directorial debut of Akinola Davies Jr. and stars Sope Dirisu with Godwin Chiemerie Egbo and Chibuike Marvellous Egbo as his sons. The United Kingdom has submitted it as the hopeful for Best International Feature Film.
The Brits may have chosen wisely. Shadow is receiving early kudos from other awards bodies. It was given a special award for its first-time filmmaker at Cannes. At the British Independent Film Awards, it was up in 12 categories and won Best Director. And tonight at the Gothams, it went 2 for 2 with Breakthrough Director and a surprise victory for Dirisu for Outstanding Lead Performance.
After a streak in which none of their 21st century submitted features made the cut in the international race, the UK took top honors two years ago for The Zone of Interest. Last year, Santosh made the shortlist but not the final quintet. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 85 Metacritic, Shadow could be gathering buzz at the right time.
Some key caveats as the aforementioned ceremonies aren’t exactly reliable Oscar precursors. There’s also the matter of IFF being quite crowded with more high-profile titles including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident (which also received some Gotham love), The Secret Agent, and No Other Choice. However, if Shadow makes this year’s shortlist, it could be a trendy pick. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A couple of months back, Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine played the festival circuit prior to its release and saw its awards prospects tumble. Benny’s brother Josh (they made Good Time and Uncut Gems together among others) goes solo with Marty Supreme on Christmas Day. After a “surprise” showing at the New York Film Festival last month, the review embargo is lifted today. Unlike Machine, Marty should be a smash at the Oscars and elsewhere.
The 1950s set dramedy features Timothée Chalamet in the title role (as an ambitious ping pong star) with an eclectic supporting cast including Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary (of Shark Tank fame), Tyler Okonma (better known as Tyler, the Creator), Abel Ferrara, and Fran Drescher.
Early reaction from the Big Apple indicated this should be a major player at the Academy Awards and today’s critical reaction solidifies the buzz. Rotten Tomatoes is at 96% with 88 on Metacritic. Supreme has been perched in my top 5 possibilities for Best Picture throughout 2025 and that appears to be the right call. Like One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, and Sentimental Value – this is a BP prediction that you should feel comfortable writing in ink.
That same logic certainly applies to Chalamet in what many write-ups are calling career best work. He will turn 30 two days after Supreme‘s release, but he is going for nomination #3 after 2017’s Call Me by Your Name and last year’s A Complete Unknown. I’ve had him ranked 1st for months based on the notion that this seems like an awards friendly role. Chalamet was also the likely runner-up for Best Actor at the 97th ceremony when he fell short to Adrien Brody in The Brutalist. There is competition for the gold at the 98th production, especially from Battle‘s Leonardo DiCaprio and maybe Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) and Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon). Yet the third time could definitely be the charm for Mr. Supreme.
Supporting Actress is tough to pinpoint. A’Zion is being called the breakout performance while Paltrow is being heralded for a comeback role. All scenarios are possible as they could both get in or cancel each other out. It makes it trickier that there’s potential double nominees for Sentimental Value with Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass and perhaps Sinners with Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld. If only one makes the cut, I’m a bit stumped as where the edge lies. I’ve had Paltrow ranked slightly above A’Zion. Precursors should assist in offering clues. Right now my gut says both do not make the quintet and one of them does. I could flip a coin at the moment between them.
As for other above the line races, Safdie’s inclusion in Director isn’t automatic but the embargo lapse makes me more confident he gets in. Original Screenplay (from Safdie and Ronald Bronstein) shouldn’t be a problem.
There is a number of possibilities in tech competitions and it starts with the new Best Casting award which Supreme (with its unexpected roster choices) looks tailor made for. The pic also seems viable in Best Cinematography (from two-time nominee Darius Khondji), Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, and Production Design. A best case scenario could even include Sound though I suspect several rivals could close that door.
This means the A24 release could rack up a dozen nods under the rosiest projections with high single digits seemingly happening. Wins might be hard to come by in a number of them, but its lead has boosted his chances even more with a month left in the calendar year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Palestine 36 is in limited release after playing the festival circuit and it hopes to become the nation’s third submission nominated for Best International Feature Film. The historical epic with ties to current events is from writer/director Annemarie Jacir with a cast including Hiam Abbass, Kamel El Basha, Yasmine Al Massri, Robert Aramayo, Liam Cunningham, and Jeremy Irons.
The film debuted at the Toronto Film Festival where it received a prolonged ovation and traveled to the Tokyo International fest where it took the top prize. With a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, the aforementioned resume would point to a possible nomination. It would join 2005’s Paradise Now and 2013’s Omar as Palestine’s other contenders (last year’s From Ground Zero was shortlisted but didn’t make the quintet).
Yet while all reviews are fresh, the 61 Metacritic score is more telling and this is a year where IFF is packed with hopefuls. I have yet to list this in my top 10 for possibilities and I don’t see that changing unless precursors change the dynamic. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution hopes to continue a banner year for anime offerings when it hits domestic venues on December 5th. The fantasy effort from manga artist Gege Akutami is a prerelease for season 3 of the Kaisen TV series prior to its output in January.
Distributed via GKIDS stateside, Execution would love to approach the numbers achieved by Jujutsu Kaisen 0 back in March of 2022. Nearly four years ago, that Japanese action tale easily surpassed projections with an $18 million debut in the midst of the pandemic. That opening represented over half of its eventual $33 million take as this genre is typically front loaded.
Execution will be available for home viewing just a month after theatrical availability. That’s different than Kaisen 0 which was not directly part of the TV show. Therefore Execution is not expected to see the high teens haul that we witnessed in 2022 or a similar figure that Chainsaw Man -The Movie: Reze Arc accomplished in October. It could still manage about half of what the aforementioned kicked off with, but I’ll go with a little less.
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
For my Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 prediction, click here:
Arriving in theaters exclusively two years after its predecessor did a simultaneous release on Peacock and in multiplexes, Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 is out December 5th. Based on the Scott Cawton created video game series, the horror sequel sees Emma Tammi back directing. Returning cast members include Josh Hutcherson, Elizabeth Lail, Piper Rubio, and Matthew Lillard. Newcomers to the mix are Skeet Ulrich, Wayne Knight, Mckenna Grace, and Teo Briones.
In October 2023, Freddy’s greatly exceeded expectations with a fab $80 million out of the gate despite it being available at home for paying customers. The front loaded debut yielded a $137 million overall domestic haul. That detail could be key as part 2 could struggle. Fans of the games were deeply divided about whether the original did its source material justice. They came out right away to see it but word-of-mouth fizzled and some casual moviegoers steered clear. Many may not turn up for a second reservation.
Estimates have this only earning half of what part 1 achieved. This is a bit reminiscent of the M3GAN franchise where the 2022 pic landed a potent and unanticipated $30 million debut and this year’s sequel petered out with only $10 million. I’ll say Freddy’s 2 only gets mid to maybe high 30s.
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 opening weekend prediction: $36.5 million
For my Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution prediction, click here:
NuestraTierra (or Landmarks) marks the first documentary from acclaimed Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. It focuses on colonialism issues in her native country.
First screened at the Venice Film Festival in late August, Tierra moved to the London fest where it won Best Film last month. The doc continued its circuit run with the NYC fest and has racked up solid reviews along the way with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic.
While I haven’t featured it prominently in my 10 possibilities for Best Documentary Feature, the resume is there for Tierra to make a move. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
