Author: toddmthatcher

Star Wars: The Last Jedi Box Office Prediction

The cinematic event of 2017 invades theaters next Friday when Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts. The eighth episode of the beloved franchise arrives 40 years after the original changed the landscape of the moviegoing world. In more recent times, it is of course the sequel to 2015’s The Force Awakens, which broke every box office record in its path. It had the biggest opening of all time and is the highest grossing picture of all time (not adjusted for inflation).

What J.J. Abrams started two December’s ago is continued here with Rian Johnson handling directorial duties (Abrams will be back for episode IX). Returnees from Awakens include Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, Andy Serkis, Anthony Daniels, Lupita Nyong’o, and Domhnall Gleeson. Of course, there’s also Mark Hamill back as Luke Skywalker and with considerably more screen time and Carrie Fisher as Princess Leia in her final performance. Familiar faces entering the Star Wars universe for the first time include Benicio del Toro, Laura Dern, and Kelly Marie Tran.

The Force Awakens obliterated the all-time opening weekend to the tune of $247 million with a $936 million eventual domestic haul. Anticipation for the follow-up is feverish. That said, Jedi is not expected to top its predecessor out of the gate. A more serious question is whether or not it will manage the second biggest stateside premiere in history.

First things first : it should not have trouble nabbing the 2017 record by sailing past another Disney title, Beauty and the Beast at $174 million. And it will absolutely be the runner-up franchise opening, which currently is last year’s spin-off Rogue One: A Star Wars Story at $155 million.

In order to achieve the #2 debut, it will need to top the $208 million earned by Jurassic World in 2015. I am predicting it will manage to get there with about $10 million to spare as it sets up for a long run over the holidays.

Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend prediction: $219.7 million

For my Ferdinand prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/12/06/ferdinand-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: December 8-10

The second weekend of December at the box office may look similar to this past one with Pixar’s Coco atop the charts for the third time. Unlike this previous frame, there are some newcomers as the Morgan Freeman/Tommy Lee Jones geriatric comedy Just Getting Started debuts and James Franco’s critically heralded The Disaster Artist greatly expands its theater count. You can peruse my Just Getting Started detailed prediction here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/29/just-getting-started-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Just Getting Started may be lucky to eek out a fifth place showing. The Disaster Artist could be a wild card, but if its estimated 800 screen expansion stands, I’ll put it at $4.2 million and outside the top 5. Should its theater count expand, so will my forecast for it.

All in all, it’s a rather quiet weekend. However, that won’t last long as Star Wars: The Last Jedi is on deck next weekend.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Just Getting Started

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (December 1-3)

Coco ruled the top spot again with $27.5 million, a bit ahead of my $25.2 million projection. The Pixar pic has taken in $110 million since its Thanksgiving release.

Justice League was second once again at $16.6 million (in line with my $16.8 million prediction) for a total of $197 million.

Wonder took third with $12.1 million (a bit below my $14.4 million calculation) for $87 million overall.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $9.8 million, topping my $7.7 million estimate for $291 million thus far.

Daddy’s Home 2 was fifth with $7.5 million (I was close at $7.1 million) for an $82 million overall gross.

Murder on the Orient Express was sixth with $6.7 million (I said $6.9 million) and it’s made $84 million.

And that does it for now, folks! I’ll be back Monday with full box office predictions for the following weekend and tomorrow I will post my detailed Star Wars: The Last Jedi opening weekend estimate!

Todd’s Weekly 2017 Oscar Predictions: December 4th Edition

Back at it again with my weekly Oscar predictions and in the last week, precursors such as the National Board of Review and New York and L.A. film critics have weighed in with their awards.

Here’s a snapshot of the significant changes this week:

  • The Florida Project replaces Mudbound in my predicted nine. There’s a decent chance the Dee Rees Netfix drama gets back in, but this is the first time I’ve had it on the outside looking in.
  • The Post vaults to the #2 position in Best Picture behind Dunkirk as Lady Bird flies to #3.
  • Tom Hanks in The Post jumps over Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger for the fifth slot in Actor.
  • Two changes in the Supporting races as Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) jumps back in by replacing Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). In Supporting Actress, it’s Octavia Spencer (Water) getting in with Melissa Leo (Novitiate) dropping out the top 5 for the first time.
  • Phantom Thread vaults into the top 5 in the jam packed Original Screenplay race, taking The Shape of Water out.

You can read them all below and we’ll see what changes a week from today…

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 7)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

9. The Florida Project (PR: 10)

Other Possibilities:

10. Mudbound (PR: 8)

11. Get Out (PR: 11)

12. I, Tonya (PR: 12)

13. Detroit (PR: 13)

14. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 15)

15. The Disaster Artist (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 4)

4. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 5)

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 8)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)

9. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 5)

5. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

7. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 10)

8. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 8)

10. Robert Pattinson, Good Time (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

2. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 4)

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

5. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)

7. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

10. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 2)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

8. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

9. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 8)

10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 5)

5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 4)

7. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 6)

8. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

9. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 8)

10. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. The Disaster Artist (PR: 4)

3. Mudbound (PR: 2)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Last Flag Flying (PR: 6)

7. Wonder (PR: 7)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)

9. The Beguiled (PR: 10)

10. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 9)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Lady Bird (PR: 2)

3. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

4. The Post (PR: 5)

5. Get Out (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 8)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

9. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

10. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. Loving Vincent (PR: 2)

3. The Breadwinner (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 5)

5. Cars 3 (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

7. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

8. Ferdinand (PR: 7)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. In this Corner of the World (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Despicable Me 3

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. Foxtrot (PR: 3)

3. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 4)

4. In the Fade (PR: 2)

5. The Insult (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 6)

7. The Square (PR: 5)

8. Loveless (PR: 7)

9. Thelma (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 8)

Dropped Out:

Happy End

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Jane (PR: 1)

2. Cries from Syria (PR: 2)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 4)

4. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Faces Places (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

6. Strong Island (PR: 8)

7. Long Strange Trip (PR: 5)

8. Risk (PR: 7)

9. One of Us (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Kedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Step

The Final Year

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Post (PR: 4)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 3)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. I, Tonya (PR: 6)

7. Phantom Thread (PR: 9)

8. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 7)

8. Mudbound (PR: 10)

9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)

10. Call Me by Your Name (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread – not eligible due to director being the film’s cinematographer 

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 3)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

5. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 6)

7. The Post (PR: 7)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

9. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

10. Wonderstruck (PR: 10)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. I, Tonya (PR: 4)

7. The Greatest Showman (PR: 6)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wonder (PR: 7)

10. It (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Thor: Ragnarok

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 4)

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: 6)

8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 9)

9. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 10)

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 5)

4. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 6)

5. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

7. Wonder Woman (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Detroit (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Beauty and the Beast

Best Sound Mixing 

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Baby Driver (PR: 4)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

5. Detroit (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

7. The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

8. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Dropped Out:

Transformers: The Last Knight

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

4. The Post (PR: 4)

5. Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 10)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

10. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

3. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “The Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 7)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 6)

8. “Truth to Power” from An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (PR: 8)

9. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

10. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 10)

And that gives us the nomination numbers breakdown:

11 Nominations

Dunkirk, The Shape of Water

9 Nominations

The Post

7 Nominations

Phantom Thread

6 Nominations

Lady Bird, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Call Me by Your Name, Darkest Hour

5 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049, Beauty and the Beast

2 Nominations

The Florida Project, The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Mudbound, Coco, Cries from Syria, War for the Planet of the Apes, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

1 Nomination

Molly’s Game, Wonderstruck, Get Out, Loving Vincent, The Breadwinner, Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, Cars 3, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Foxtrot, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, The Insult, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Faces Places, Baby Driver, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, The Greatest Showman, Detroit, Marshall. 

L.A. Critics Call a Best Picture’s Name

The Los Angeles Film Critics Association put their stamp on awards season today and it marked a solid afternoon for Luca Guadagnino’s Call Me by Your Name and Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water. The latter hasn’t received much precursor love thus far. The former picked up its first Best Picture prize.

LAFC also honors runner-ups and that went to The Florida Project, another pic that seems to be on the upswing at the moment. There was a tie for Best Director between Guadagnino and del Toro. The Call Me love continued with Timothee Chalamet taking Best Actor with James Franco (The Disaster Artist) second. The Water appreciation extended to Sally Hawkins for Actress with Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) following.

Supporting Actor went to Willem Dafoe in Project, making him 3 for 3 including the NBR and New York Critics. Sam Rockwell in Billboards was on his heels. Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird was victorious for Supporting Actress with Mary J. Blige in Mudbound in the two spot.

Other races:

Screenplay

Winner: Get Out. Runner-Up: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Animated Film

Winner: The Breadwinner. Runner-Up: Coco

Foreign Language Film

Winners: BPM (Beats Per Minute) and Loveless (tie)

Documentary Feature

Winner: Faces Places. Runner-Up: Jane

Bottom line: the Academy’s Best Picture race is indeed looking wide open right now and Call Me and Shape had nice west coast showings today to keep their names relevant.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Movie Review

In 1996, Frances McDormand brilliantly crafted her signature role with Fargo and earned a well deserved Oscar for it. Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri gives the actress another part that’s right up there in terms of one she’ll be remembered for. Like Fargo, it’s a picture involving grisly crimes with a comedic sensibility set to charcoal. Unlike her Marge Gunderson from 21 years past, Mildred Hayes displays the opposite of the former’s sunny disposition in the midst of tragedy.

There’s good reason for it. Her daughter was brutally raped and murdered seven months ago. Frustrated with the lack of progress in the case and the small town police force investigating it, she plunks down some cash for a trio of billboards on the remote road leading to her home. These signs clearly express her displeasure, particularly with Sheriff Willoughby (Woody Harrelson). The local news media takes notice, as do Ebbing’s residents. The majority of them view it as an unnecessary stunt.

Mildred is a woman on a mission to get answers and her narrow focus puts her at odds with the Sheriff. A lesser screenplay may have made Willoughby a local yokel. Yet he’s written as a multi-layered man with Harrelson expertly portraying him. If there’s a law enforcement figure to root against, it’s Sam Rockwell’s Dixon. He’s known for racist tendencies and a general lack of skill in his job. And even McDonagh’s script takes him in unexpected directions that make him far from a caricature.

The promise that celebrated Irish playwright McDonagh showed with his debut In Bruges ebbed a bit with his follow-up Seven Psychopaths. The third time is easily the darkly charming triumph of his cinematic career. Billboards takes you in unforeseen directions not unlike what Fargo accomplished.

Much credit is due to the casting. McDormand, Harrelson, and Rockwell all give nomination worthy performances. The superb acting filters to the supporting players – from Mildred’s temperamental ex-husband (John Hawkes) and his dingbat 19 year-old girlfriend (Samara Weaving). Lucas Hedges is their exasperated son, left mourning his sister and seeing the constant reminders of her death to and from home. Caleb Landry Jones is memorable as the poor guy who must approve Mildred’s messages. He’s been a standout twice before this year with Get Out and American Made. Peter Dinklage turns up as a used car salesman with an eye for our heroine. Sandy Martin’s makes the most of her limited screentime as Dixon’s mama. We certainly see where he gets his lesser traits from.

Three Billboards is special. I was truly taken with its ability to be hilarious and touching simultaneously. It doesn’t allow its main characters to be simple. The screenplay is too intelligent to play them as wholly virtuous or completely evil. Everyone here has rough edges and questionable intentions and the desire to do good in their own way. Watching it all play out is riveting and one of the year’s greatest experiences.

**** (out of four)

New York Is For The Bird

The second major Oscar precursor unfolded today in the Big Apple as the New York Film Critics Circle named their winners for best of 2017. It was a banner day for Lady Bird, which won Best Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). The pic was just cemented as Rotten Tomatoes Best reviewed of all time. At this juncture, it would seem Bird will easily fly to a nomination.

Additionally, The Florida Project had a strong showing, winning Director (Sean Baker) and Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe). Mr. Dafoe also took home the NBR prize earlier this week. Three days ago, I took Project out of my nine predicted nominees. We shall see if that changes Monday.

In Actor, it was Timothee Chalamet for Call Me by Your Name. It’s worth noting that Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour, considered the Academy front runner for Oscar, is 0 for 2 in precursors. Is that a sign of weaknesses? Stay tuned.

The surprise of the day was Tiffany Haddish getting Supporting Actress for Girls Trip. I’ve yet to list her among my five predicted nominees and have yet to even have her in my top ten possibilities. It’s tough for comedic performances to break through for gold statue recognition, but today helps her case.

Phantom Thread took Best Screenplay as its stock continues to rise and Coco (predictably) got Animated Feature.

Bottom line: Lady Bird and The Florida Project had nice days in the city that never sleeps.

Just Getting Started Box Office Prediction

A pair of Oscar winners hope to bring in an older audience next weekend when Just Getting Started premieres. Morgan Freeman and Tommy Lee Jones star as retirees taking on the Mob in this comedy from Ron Shelton, best known for his directorial efforts of the past including Bull Durham and White Men Can’t Jump. Rene Russo, Glenne Headly (in her final film role), and Joe Pantoliano are among the supporting players.

Freeman has been appearing in these geriatric yuck fests with increasing frequency as of late. Earlier in the year, Going in Style debuted to a decent $11.9 million. 2013’s Last Vegas fared even better with an opening north of $16 million. A number similar to Style would seem to be the absolute high bar here. However, I have trouble seeing this getting into double digits.

One big reason: distributor Broad Green Pictures is bankrupt and promotion for Started has been muted at best. A theater count will help shed light on its potential and my estimate could be adjusted accordingly. My initial feeling is that this just gets started in the mid single digits and fades quickly.

Just Getting Started opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

The NBR Posts Up

This afternoon, the National Board of Review bestowed its 2017 honors and it marks the first significant critics group to do so. The NBR has a history and habit of making some outside the box choices in years past for various categories. That didn’t necessarily hold true today, for the most part.

By far and wide, the big winner of the day was Steven Spielberg’s The Post, which just recently screened and has yet to have its review embargo lifted. The Watergate era drama won Best Film along with Actor (Tom Hanks) and Actress (Meryl Streep). Buzz for the pic has already vaulted it into contention and today basically solidifies its inclusion into Best Picture at the Oscars. In this decade, only 2014’s A Most Violent Year was victorious and didn’t land an Academy nod.

Streep looks on her way to her 21st nomination and Hanks is looking better for his sixth. In the Suporting races, Willem Dafoe for The Florida Project and Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird heard their names called. Both look safe for Oscar attention.

Additionally, the NBR names their ten other favorite features of the year. That list include likely Oscar nominees Call Me by Your Name, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, and Phantom Thread (which took Original Screenplay). There were sleeper-ish picks such as The Disaster Artist (which won Adapted Screenplay), The Florida Project, and Get Out. And then there were the aforementioned outside the box choices – Baby Driver, Downsizing, and Logan. Any of that trio being included in the big race would be a surprise.

In my view, there are three glaring omissions for pictures that are more likely to have Oscar shine its light on them: The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. To a lesser degree of surprise, we didn’t see Mudbound, I, Tonya, Last Flag Flying, Detroit, Blade Runner 2049, Battle of the Sexes, or The Big Sick.

In other categories, Oscar front runner Coco took Animated Feature, Jane won Documentary, and Israel’s Foxtrot was honored in the Foreign Language race.

Bottom line: The Post ramped up its awards season viability today in a massive way.

 

The Hitman’s Bodyguard Movie Review

Had The Hitman’s Bodyguard been made in the mid to late 1990s, it may well have involved three of the performers present. We have Samuel L. Jackson as one of the co-leads. There’s Gary Oldman overacting his tail off as the main baddie. And Salma Hayek adds a sassy flavor as a love interest. There would be no Ryan Reynolds, who would have been in his late teens or early 20s at the time. Instead, maybe Bruce Willis or Kurt Russell could have filled his role.

As such, the three actors mentioned are a bit older and filling parts we’ve seen them cast in before. Bodyguard is joyfully R rated, filled with action genre familiarities, and (to use a reviewer’s cliche) it hits the mark sporadically. Reynolds is Michael Bryce, former CIA officer and triple A rated executive protection officer. What is exactly gives one the distinction of being triple A rated in this particular field? None of the other character seem to know, but he seems supremely confident in the designation. Essentially, he’s good at not letting the people he protects (some of whom are nefarious types) die.

His unblemished record is thwarted early here and his career goes down the tubes. Bryce gets back in the game a couple years later when notorious hitman Darius Kincaid (Jackson) needs a protector. He’s been imprisoned for some time and he’s a key government witness against a foreign dictator (Oldman) for his many crimes. There’s a whole army of the dictator’s henchmen who wish to keep Kincaid from the witness stand.

Much of the action here takes place in Amsterdam as Bryce tries to get his subject to The Hague to testify. Our two leads have a checkered history together and getting them to work together doesn’t come easily. Bryce believes his protection methods work best (don’t kill anyone) while Kincaid feels differently (kill everyone). The comedic banter between Reynolds and Jackson works well much of the time as they try to one up each other in their work.

Both principal’s have ladies in their lives. Elodie Yung is Bryce’s ex who he still can’t let go of. Hayek is Kincaid’s wife, apparently jailed simply due to her association with her hubby. Her character rivals his in their extreme use of the word mother****er, which had basically become Jackson’s catchphrase in countless pictures.

Expendables 3 director Patrick Hughes keeps Bodyguard charging along with action set pieces that are competent and pretty much instantly forgettable. We get some backstory of the pair and how they met their women. This is done so in flashback sequences that are a bit superfluous and complete with ironically cliched song choices. For someone who’s played some very memorable villains, Oldman’s screen time is too limited to make much impact.

 

The stars of The Hitman’s Bodyguard certainly keep it watchable and there’s a select few genuinely funny moments splattered around the cartoonish mayhem. On the other hand, Mr. Reynolds and Mr. Jackson have appeared in violent flicks before that you’ll remember in the morning. That doesn’t quite hold true here.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: December 1-3

The December box office begins slowly with Thanksgiving/November leftovers sure to rule the charts. There are no new wide releases this weekend as Hollywood takes a breath to prepare for the would-be Christmas season blockbusters.

In other words, it’s a rather dull week. The post Turkey Day weekend is known for seeing holdovers have rather significant drops from the holiday frame that preceded it and that should hold true here. I don’t look for much change in the rankings as Pixar’s Coco should easily retain the top spot.

And with that, my top 6 predictions:

1. Coco

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

2. Justice League 

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 59%)

3. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $14.4 million (representing a drop of 36%)

4. Thor: Ragnarok 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Daddy’s Home 2 

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 46%)

6. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

Box Office Results (November 24-26)

As expected (especially after the disappointing opening of Justice League), Pixar’s Coco topped the Thanksgiving charts with $50.8 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. Since its Wednesday start, it’s made $72.9 million. That’s a touch under my respective forecasts of $54.1 million and $74.6 million yet it’s still a solid debut for the studio as it looks to play well in the coming weekends. It stands an excellent chance at being the #1 picture for three weeks in a row before a certain other Disney property is unleashed on December 15th.

Justice League dropped to second with its continued less than anticipated earnings at $41 million, right on target with my $41.6 million projection. The DC pic has earned $171 million thus far and is on pace to be the lowest earner in its particular cinematic universe.

Wonder was third with $22.6 million. I was a tad higher at $25.4 million. Regardless, the sleeper hit has surpassed all expectations and taken in $69 million as it looks to join the $100 million club in the coming weeks.

Thor: Ragnarok was fourth with $16.8 million, in line with my prediction of $16.2 million. The MCU hit has amassed $277 million.

Daddy’s Home 2 took the five-spot with $13.2 million, a tad ahead of my $11.9 million estimate for a total of $72 million.

Murder on the Orient Express was right behind in sixth with $13.1 million (I was lower at $10.8 million). The Kenneth Branagh mystery, which will have a sequel with his Poirot character returning, stands at $74 million.

The faith-based animated The Star was seventh in its sophomore frame with $6.9 million compared to my $8.6 million forecast for $22 million overall.

Finally, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. failed to impress, debuting wide in ninth with just $4.4 million (I said $5 million). With no awards buzz and middling buzz, expect it to fade quickly.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…