F1 (also styled as F1: The Movie) blasts into IMAX screens and other venues on June 27th, marking Joseph Kosinski’s theatrical follow-up to Top Gun: Maverick. The exploration of the Formula One World Championship is headlined by Brad Pitt with costars including Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Tobias Menzies, and Javier Bardem.
Critics are mostly championing this an effective summer blockbuster with 84% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. There are some gripes about the screenplay and even quibbles with how the racing sequences are choreographed.
While Maverick was nominated in six categories at the 95th Academy Awards including Best Picture, F1‘s possibilities are more limited. Sound seems the most feasible with Cinematography, Editing, and Hans Zimmer’s Score having shots. BP is likely out of reach and same goes for the cast despite praise for Pitt and the relatively unknown (though not for long) Idris. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Zombie threequel 28 Years Later from Danny Boyle and Disney/Pixar’s sci-fi adventure Elio debut this weekend and look to challenge How to Train Your Dragon from a second weekend atop the charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
28 Years could over perform and challenge Dragon for box office bragging rights. $40M+ isn’t out of the question, but I’m projecting low to mid 30s.
The Dragon competition could be detrimental to Elio. Pixar has had luck with recent sequels like Inside Out 2. However, original content such as Elemental has struggled out of the gate. I’m estimating Elio premieres in the mid 20s and that would probably mean third place.
If Dragon declines around 50%, low 40s is where it would land and that would mean hitting #1 again after its fiery debut (more on that below).
Lilo & Stitch should be fourth while fifth could be a photo finish between the sophomore frame of Materialists and fifth frame of Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $41.6 million
2. 28 Years Later
Predicted Gross: $33.7 million
3. Elio
Predicted Gross: $24.5 million
4. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
6. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
Box Office Predictions (June 13-15)
Friday the 13th certainly wasn’t unlucky for the live-action version of 2010’s How to Train Your Dragon. With mostly solid reviews and an A Cinemascore grade, the fourth flick in the series easily set a franchise high with $84.6 million. That’s right on track with my $84.3 million prediction and it is the fourth largest domestic kickoff of 2025. A sequel was already in the works.
Lilo & Stitch slipped to second after three weeks in 1st with $15.7 million, on pace with my $15.6 million call. The four-week tally is $366 million.
Celine Song’s Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans slightly exceeded expectations with $12 million in third. That’s right in the neighborhood of my $11.4 million estimate as the rom com hopes to play well throughout the coming weeks. The B- Cinemascore could be cause for concern.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was fourth with $10.5 million (I went lower at $9 million) for $166 million in four weeks.
At $9.7 million, John Wick spinoff Ballerina sputtered in weekend #2 with a 60% plummet for fifth. I was slightly more generous at $10.5 million.
Harry Melling and Alexander Skarsgård enter into an unconventional relationship in the British drama Pillion. From writer/director Harry Lighton in his feature debut, costars include Douglas Hodge, Lesley Sharp, Jack Shears, and Anthony Welsh.
After screening at Cannes last month, A24 picked up stateside distribution rights. At the French fest, the film won the Best Screenplay prize. Melling and Skarsgård are both being praised. It will be interesting to see if they’re both campaigned for in lead Actor.
A24 might be preoccupied with other titles including Marty Supreme and The Smashing Machine. I wouldn’t completely discount an Original Screenplay nod, but its distributor would need to make it a priority and that remains to be seen. Pillion should perform stronger at BAFTA where Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer, and writing and acting noms could occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Deep Cover is available to stream on Amazon Prime Video today with Tom Kingsley directing and Jurassic World maker Colin Trevorrow among four credited with the script. The co-screenwriter’s dino lead Bryce Dallas Howard stars alongside Orlando Bloom, Nick Mohammed, Paddy Considine, Ian McShane, and Sean Bean.
This is not a remake of the 1992 Laurence Fishburne/Jeff Goldblum crime thriller that featured a banger of a title song from Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg. Instead this British high concept action comedy is receiving decent marks with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and a more down-to-earth 68 Metacritic. It won’t get near the Academy’s radar. I do wonder if it could get a push for BAFTA’s Best British Film. That might be a long shot, but not an impossibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Julianne Moore is saddled with protecting her troubled daughter Sydney Sweeney in the crime thriller Echo Valley from director Michael Pearce. It begins showing on Apple TV+ tomorrow after a limited theatrical bow last weekend. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, Kyle MacLachlan, and Fiona Shaw.
Critics are mostly not high on Valley with a 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 55 Metacritic. Despite the presence of five-time nominee and one-time Academy recipient Moore and the popular Ms. Sweeney, this is receiving scant buzz. Nevertheless it could do just fine via its streaming route, but this is not an awards pic. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
18 years later from the previous installment of the acclaimed zombie franchise comes 28 Years Later on June 20th. Danny Boyle, who made the original 28 Days Later in 2002, is back directing with a cast including Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, and Ralph Fiennes. Alex Garland, who has become a well-known filmmaker via Ex Machina and Civil War, handles screenwriting duties like he did 23 years back.
28 Days Later was a cult hit that took in $10 million in its first weekend with an eventual $45 million domestic gross. 2007’s 28 Weeks Later opened with $9.8 million and $28 million overall stateside. In the nearly 20 years since, both titles are now considered hallmarks of the genre that helped kick off a zombie renaissance leading to The Walking Dead, World War Z, and more. Sony seems confident in bringing this series back. 28 Days Later: The Bone Temple from director Nia DaCosta is slated to follow this up in January.
That means expectations are higher for the third entry. So is the budget at a reported $75 million compared to the respective $8 and $15 million price tags of the predecessors. The top end range of its expected premiere is $40-45million. I’m not projecting quite that level, but low to mid 30s seems doable.
28 Years Later opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:
Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.
Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.
As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.
Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.
Here’s how I envision it playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $84.3 million
2. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
4. Ballerina
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $9 million
Box Office Results (June 6-8)
Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.
That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.
Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.
Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.
That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.
Celine Song’s 2023 debut Past Lives was a Best Picture and Original Screenplay nominee and her sophomore feature Materialists arrives in theaters this weekend. A rom com with considerable emotional heft according to reviews, it stars Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans.
The word-of-mouth for the A24 release indicates there’s no sophomore slump for Song with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. If the Academy considers Materialists their material, Original Screenplay is a possibility. Chris Evans is also getting some of the best notices of his career.
Yet I suspect its distributor could focus more on its fall slate, namely Marty Supreme. If A24 slots this into the Musical/Comedy competitions at the Golden Globes, it could contend in that Best Picture race with Johnson as a Best Actress hopeful. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All three How to Train Your Dragon features from DreamWorks Animation have received Best Animated Feature nominations and all lost to Disney. In 2010, the original fell short to Toy Story 3. Four years later, the sequel couldn’t overcome Big Hero 6. 2019’s The Hidden World didn’t get more votes than Woody and Buzz once again with Toy Story 4.
This Friday, Dean DeBlois (who directed the Dragon trilogy) returns behind the camera with the live-action rendering of part 1 with a sequel already in the works. Cast members include Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Nick Frost, Julian Dennison, Gabriel Howell, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, Murray McArthur, and Gerard Butler.
The fantasy adventure looks to slay the box office this weekend. Could it keep the streak going of Oscar nods for the series? Reviews are mostly solid with 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. It is worthy of note that both numbers are lower than the three pictures preceding it. That said, Costume Design and Sound are long shot possibilities. Where DreamWorks could mount a legit campaign is in Visual Effects, but expect plenty of competition for those five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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