Author: toddmthatcher

2018 Weekly Oscar Predictions: August 30th Edition

My weekly ranked Oscar predictions kick off today as the Venice Film Festival is in full swing with Toronto and Telluride on deck!

Each Thursday, I will be bringing you my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture, along with 15 for Best Director, the four acting races, and the screenplay categories.

In November, the rankings will constrict to 15 possibilities for Best Picture and ten for every other race covering feature films (this is when all the tech categories, animated feature, foreign film, documentary will enter the mix).

Before I get to the rankings, some warnings: these will change dramatically as time rolls along. Some features could be pushed back to 2019. Some of them will instantly become non-factors due to poor critical reaction. Others will vault higher.

In the acting races, there is always uncertainty at this juncture about placement in which category. Here’s a few 2018 examples: right now I have Steve Carell listed in lead actor for Beautiful Boy with Timothee Chalamet in supporting. That could switch or both could be campaigned for in lead. Time will tell. Same goes for Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali in Green Book. Right now, I have Tim Blake Nelson in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs for lead, but it could easily be supporting. And it’s uncertain where the women (Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz, Emma Stone) of The Favourite will land.

All of this will be sorted out in the coming weeks and months and I’ll be here every Thursday to share with you where I have each category at this snapshot in time.

You can expect a whole bunch of Oscar Watch posts coming your way directly focused on individual films screenings at festivals over the coming days.

Let’s get to it, shall we?

Best Picture

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. A Star Is Born

3. Beautiful Boy

4. Roma

5. First Man

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. Boy Erased

8. Backseat

9. Peterloo

Other Possibilities:

10. Mary Queen of Scots

11. Widows

12. Black Panther

13. The Favourite

14. The Front Runner

15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

17. Crazy Rich Asians

18. Old Man & The Gun

19. Bohemian Rhapsody

20. Destroyer

21. Green Book

22. Mary Poppins Returns

23. At Eternity’s Gate

24. On the Basis of Sex

25. Ben Is Back

Best Director

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Damien Chazelle, First Man

5. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy

7. Adam McKay, Backseat

8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

9. Mike Leigh, Peterloo

10. Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

11. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

12. Steve McQueen, Widows

13. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther

14. Jason Reitman, The Front Runner

15. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

4. Ryan Gosling, First Man

5. Robert Redford, Old Man & The Gun

Other Possibilities:

6. Christian Bale, Backseat

7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

9. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner

10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk

11. Rory Kinnear, Peterloo

12. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

13. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

14. Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here

15. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

2. Glenn Close, The Wife

3. Viola Davis, Widows

4. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk

Other Possibilities:

6. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

7. Toni Collette, Hereditary

8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

9. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

10. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex

11. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

12. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back

13. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade

14. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

15. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

2. Sam Elliot, A Star Is Born

3. Sam Rockwell, Backseat

4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased

5. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Other Possibilities:

6. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

7. Oscar Isaac, At Eternity’s Gate

8. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

9.. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

10. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Jason Clarke, First Man

12. Sebastian Stan, Destroyer

13. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex

14. David Tennant, Mary Queen of Scots

15. Topher Grace, BlacKkKlansman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Claire Foy, First Man

4. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots

5. Amy Adams, Backseat

Other Possibilities:

6. Maura Tierney, Beautiful Boy

7. Amy Ryan, Beautiful Boy

8. Sissy Spacek, Old Man & The Gun

9. Meryl Streep, Mary Poppins Returns

10. Vera Farmiga, The Front Runner

11. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

13. Tatiana Maslany, Destroyer

14. Rachel McAdams, Disobedience

15. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Beautiful Boy

3. Boy Erased

4. A Star Is Born

5. BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

6. First Man

7. Mary Queen of Scots

8. The Front Runner

9. Crazy Rich Asians

10. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

11. Old Man & The Gun

12. Widows

13. Disobedience

14. Wildlife

15. The Sisters Brothers

Best Original Screenplay

1. Roma

2. Peterloo

3. Backseat

4. Eighth Grade

5. The Favourite

Other Possibilities:

6. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

7. Destroyer

8. Ben Is Back

9. On the Basis of Sex

10. At Eternity’s Gate

11. Green Book

12. Colette

13. A Quiet Place

14. Bohemian Rhapsody

15. Sorry to Bother You

Oscar Watch: First Man

The Venice Film Festival has kicked off today with Toronto coming next week. That means you can expect two dozen or more Oscar Watch posts coming your way on the blog over the next few days!

The opening film from Venice is a big one – Damien Chazelle’s First Man. The story of Neil Armstrong’s (Ryan Gosling) journey to the moon has screened for critics and the early verdict is quite strong.

It should come as no surprise that Man is considered a potential serious awards contender. Director Chazelle has seen both of his previous works – 2014’s Whiplash and 2016’s La La Land – land Best Picture nominations. The latter infamously lost to Moonlight. Additionally, both pictures resulted in Oscar wins for their performers (J.T. Walsh for Supporting Actor in Whiplash and Emma Stone in lead Actress for La La).

So where does this stand based on early buzz emanating from Italy? It would appear First Man is highly likely to be director’s third effort in a row to be recognized in Best Picture. Chazelle also stands a great chance at a directing nod (he won for La La and was the youngest filmmaker in history to do so).

As for the actors, critical notices have heaped praise on Claire Foy as Armstrong’s wife Jan. Her inclusion in Supporting Actress is probable. Of the many recognizable male supporting players, it appears Jason Clarke is receiving the most attention. It’s possible that Universal’s Oscar campaign’s focus could primarily center on Gosling and Foy, but I wouldn’t count Clarke out.

Which brings us to Gosling. Critics have been very kind in praising his understated work. I don’t think it’s yet a guarantee that Gosling lands his third Best Actor nod (after Half Nelson and La La Land), but he’s absolutely in the mix.

In addition to Best Adapted Screenplay, First Man should definitely find itself under consideration for numerous tech races including Cinematography, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects, Production Design, and Original Score.

Bottom line: First Man is the first fall festival picture to be screened… and it’s established itself as a major player.

First Man opens domestically on October 12. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

Peppermint Box Office Prediction

Jennifer Garner is back to her action roots when Peppermint arrives in theaters next weekend. The revenge tale casts the former “Alias” star as a vigilante avenging a double family tragedy. While Garner has been out of this particular genre for a bit, director Pierre Morel has not. He’s best known for making the first Taken a decade ago, in addition to From Paris with Love and The Gunman. Costars include John Gallagher Jr., John Ortiz, and Method Man.

Peppermint will hope to bring a female and action oriented audience to the fold. Some of its anticipated crowd could be busy watching The Nun instead. You have to go back to 2005’s Elektra for the last time Garner was headlining a genre flick like this.

For a decent comp, I’m going all the way back to 2007 when The Brave One with Jodie Foster opened in the same time frame to $13.4 million. That actually sounds just about right, give or take a million or two.

Peppermint opening weekend prediction: $11.8 million

For my The Nun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/the-nun-box-office-prediction/

For my God Bless the Broken Road prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/02/god-bless-the-broken-road-box-office-prediction/

The Nun Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (09/05/18): I am revising my estimate up from $38.4 million to $45.4 million

The Conjuring Cinematic Universe rolls along when The Nun debuts next weekend. The fifth entry in the highly successful Warner Bros horror franchise is a prequel to all four previous pictures. Our title character was first glimpsed at in 2016’s The Conjuring 2. Corin Hardy directs a cast that includes Demian Bichir, Taissa Farmiga (sister of Conjuring star Vera), Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons.

Just a couple of weeks back, The Nun received some unexpected publicity when YouTube pulled one of its trailers off the site due to its frightening jump scares. If anything, that notoriety could help peak the curiosity of moviegoers. Not that it necessarily needs it. The opening weekend grosses of this series have been remarkably consistent. Here’s the rundown:

The Conjuring – $41.8 million

Annabelle – $37.1 million

The Conjuring 2 – $40.4 million

Annabelle: Creation – $35 million

I don’t see any compelling reason why The Nun would change that range. You could say it seems pretty (ahem) black and white to me. I’ll predict this scary sister act hits high 30s.

The Nun opening weekend prediction: $45.4 million

For my Peppermint prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/peppermint-box-office-prediction/

For my God Bless the Broken Road prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/02/god-bless-the-broken-road-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: August 31-September 3

The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/kin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/the-little-stranger-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/ya-veremos-box-office-prediction/

I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.

My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.

The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.

That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.

The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:

1. Crazy Rich Asians

Predicted Gross: $30.6 million

2. The Meg

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout

Predicted Gross: $10 million

4. Operation Finale

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

5. Christopher Robin

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (August 24-26) 

Crazy Rich Asians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.

The Meg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.

The Happytime Murders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.

Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.

Mile 22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.

Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

The Little Stranger Box Office Prediction

Debuting this weekend in theaters is the gothic horror tale The Little Stranger, based on a 2009 novel by Sarah Waters. The pic is director Lenny Abrahamson’s follow-up to his Oscar nominated Room. The cast includes Domhnall Gleeson, Ruth Wilson, Will Poulter, and Charlotte Rampling.

Stranger rolls out on a rather low 475 screens over the long holiday weekend. That severely limits its prospects at the box office. I’ll estimate of the five new releases this weekend, this will place fourth just ahead of Ya Veremos.

The Little Stranger opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million

For my Operation Finale prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

For my Searching prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

For my Kin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/kin-box-office-prediction/

For my Ya Veremos prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/ya-veremos-box-office-prediction/

Ya Veremos Box Office Prediction

It’s become a common occurrence over the past few Labor Day weekends to see a high-profile picture from our neighbor to the south released stateside. 2018 is no different as Mexican drama Ya Veremos opens domestically Friday. The pic comes from director Pedro Pablo Ibarra with a cast including Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo.

A number of these selections are from distributor Pantelion Films, which is behind this. Veremos has performed well in Mexico. The release pattern has been extremely consistent for these imports – a debut with a theater count of 300-400 screens. This is slated to premiere on 350.

The results, however, have been varied. 2013’s Instructions Not Included provided the high mark with $10.3 million. Nothing has matched that since. 2014’s Cantinflas took in $3.5 million. 2016’s No Manches Frida made $4.6 million. Last summer’s Hazlo Como Hombre managed just $1.4 million. All of these grosses were for the four-day holiday frame.

Recent trends would indicate Veremos is more likely to come in on the low-end of that scale and not hit the surprising earnings of Instructions five years ago.

Ya Veremos opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Operation Finale prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/operation-finale-box-office-prediction/

For my Searching prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/14/searching-box-office-prediction/

For my Kin prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/21/kin-box-office-prediction/

For my The Little Stranger prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/27/the-little-stranger-box-office-prediction/

Mission: Impossible – Fallout Movie Review

The Mission: Impossible franchise has now reached its sixth feature and its 22nd year of existence, providing the seemingly ageless Tom Cruise with a hit making series that continues to deliver. That’s a rather remarkable accomplishment and Fallout belongs in the upper echelons in terms of bang for your buck entertainment.

Truth be told, there’s been no total dog yet in the Mission sagas. My one minor complaint about its predecessor, 2015’s Rogue Nation, was its lack of directorial vision. Christopher McQuarrie and his large squad of tech and stunt wizards pulled off some impressive action sequences in that picture. However, unlike the previous four pics, it didn’t feel quite as distinctive. Part 1 was certainly a Brian De Palma experience and the first sequel was all kinds of John Woo (for occasionally better and more for the worse). Same goes for J.J. Abrams and Brad Bird in the next ones (Ghost Protocol still stands as my personal favorite).

McQuarrie is the first filmmaker to return in the director’s chair. I must admit that maybe I just didn’t fully recognize his stamp on the series the first time around. These latest missions are all about spectacle and not really concerned with melding the mayhem to its maker’s vision. In Fallout, that’s pretty much perfectly OK even more so than in Rogue. That’s because the team of people making the action are the best at it. We’ve seen plenty of car chases, helicopter battles, and bathroom brawls in our time. This franchise excels at it in ways few others do.

Ethan Hunt (Tom Cruise) and his IMF squad (including Simon Pegg and Ving Rhames) pick up two years after the events of the fifth installment. Learned Mission watchers know the plot will likely be convoluted and a secondary consideration. That’s true here, but let’s go over the basics. We have lost plutonium that IMF must find or risk nuclear attack. Part 5’s villain (Sean Harris) is involved. Ethan is forced to partner with a bulky CIA agent (Henry Cavill). MI6 agent Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson) from Rogue resurfaces. She continues to be one of Hunt’s more interesting partners. And the short-lived wedded bliss that we witnessed Ethan in during part 3 with Michelle Monaghan becomes a focal point. Oh… and there’s plenty of double crosses. And those masks. Fallout also features the most satisfying use of a CNN anchor ever committed to film.

Of course, all of this leads to Ethan globe-trotting from London to Paris to Kashmir. And the song remains the same: our hero is the only one capable of figuring out how to keep the world from crumbling. What’s often startling is just how much care is expended in creating the impossible situations he finds himself in. McQuarrie’s biggest contribution may just be the go for broke style vibe to Ethan’s dangerous exploits. As always, Cruise is a more than willing subject and he even broke his ankle during one stunt.

Cruise and McQuarrie simply refuse to allow Mission to coast on auto pilot. The franchise continues to come up with new and exciting ways to put our mega star in peril. Six films in, that is quite a feat.

***1/2 (out of four)

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Over the past couple of days, you’ve seen my first round of Oscar predictions for the 2018 season. If you didn’t, here’s a reminder of my estimates for the four acting categories, Best Director, and the controversial new race Best Popular Film.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/25/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-director/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Which brings me to Best Picture. For the biggest race of all, I’m listing 25 possibilities and these inaugural estimates selects 9 films being honored.

As previous posts have pointed out, the Film Festival season that begins in earnest next week with Venice and then Toronto. The feats will tremendously shape my weekly predictions. They start August 30.

For now, my initial take on Best Picture:

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

A Star Is Born

Beautiful Boy

BlacKkKlansman

Boy, Erased

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Queen of Scots

Peterloo

Roma

Other Possibilities:

A Quiet Place

At Eternity’s Gate

Backseat

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Black Panther

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Crazy Rich Asians

Destroyer

Eighth Grade

The Favourite

The Front Runner

Life Itself

Mary Poppins Returns

Old Man & The Gun

On the Basis of Sex

Widows

Todd’s Early 2018 Oscar Predictions: Best Director

We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-popular-film/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/24/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/23/todds-early-2018-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.

Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.

Todd’s Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Damien Chazelle, First Man

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Other Possibilities:

Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 

Joel Edgerton, Boy, Erased

Marielle Heller, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Mike Leigh, Peterloo

David Lowry, Old Man & The Gun

Adam McKay, Backseat

Steve McQueen, Widows

Josie Rourke, Mary Queen of Scots

Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy