Arriving two years following his breakout theatrical role in TheBigSick, Kumail Nanjiani stars in Stuber next week. He plays an Uber driver who picks up a detective (Dave Bautista) and becomes embroiled in action comedy shenanigans. Michael Dowse directs with a supporting cast including Iko Uwais, Natalie Morales, Betty Gilpin, Mira Sorvino, and Karen Gillan.
Stuber premiered at the South by Southwest Festival back in March to mixed reaction. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is a middling 47%. That leaves it without the positive word of mouth that greeted Nanjiani’s Sick.
I don’t believe the rather generic looking trailers and TV spots will make this is a must see among many moviegoers. I’ll predict this struggles to even reach low teens.
Kaya Scodelario and Barry Pepper might be the two human headlining actors in Crawl, but it’s a bunch of murderous alligators that are the star attraction. The horror pic takes place after a hurricane with the reptiles terrorizing survivors. Alexandre Aja directs.
Coproduced by Sam Raimi, Crawl would love to bring in the kind of coin that recent shark tales have brought in over recent summers. 2016’s TheShallows made around $16 million for its start and the following year’s 47MetersDown took in just over $11 million.
With a minor reported $17 million budget, Crawl appears set to be a profitable venture for distributor Paramount. I’ll say this manages to come close to its price tag in its first three days of release.
The box office could use some fireworks this weekend and they should come courtesy of the MCU with tomorrow’s release of Spider–Man: FarFromHome. On Wednesday, the critically acclaimed horror pic Midsommar hits the market. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
Spidey will easily dominate the long holiday weekend and I have it slinging nearly $200 million over its six-day rollout with just over $90 million of that coming in the traditional Friday to Sunday frame.
As for Midsommar, I’m a bit more skeptical that a large audience will turn up. I’m putting it at low teens for the five day period with under $10 million for the regular weekend.
ToyStory4 should relinquish the top spot and fall to second place after two weeks in first. Yesterday, after a healthy start, should continue to ride solid word of mouth and remain in third. That would vault it over AnnabelleComesHome in its sophomore outing and that demented doll sequel is likely to duke it out with Midsommar for fourth place.
And with that, my patriotic forecast for the week ahead:
1. Spider–Man: FarFromHome
Predicted Gross: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million (Tuesday to Sunday)
2. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $28.9 million
3. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
4. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
5. Midsommar
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
BoxOfficeResults (June28–30)
ToyStory4 played again atop the charts with $59.7 million, in line with my $60.3 million prediction. The Pixar fourquel stands at $238 million after ten days of release.
AnnabelleComesHome opened in second and with a bit less than anticipated. The Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry took in $20.2 million from Friday to Sunday with $31.1 million since the Wednesday start. That’s less than its predecessors, but not too shabby considering the reported $30 million budget. I went higher with respective projections of $27.4 million and $38 million.
Yesterday had a rocking start in third at $17 million, blowing away my $9.1 million forecast. With a sturdy A- CinemaScore grade, I expect this to stick around for a while.
Aladdin reached the triple century mark ($306 million overall) and was fourth with $10.1 million (I said $9.7 million).
Finally, TheSecretLifeofPets2 held the five spot with $7.3 million compared to my $5.7 million prediction. Total is $131 million.
We are officially at the midpoint of this thing called 2019 and that means a midyear Oscar report is before you today on the blog. First things first: as awards watchers already know, the bulk of the eventual nominees will come your way in the second half of the year. It will likely be festivals such as Toronto and Venice that produce their initial screenings.
We have, however, already had Cannes and Sundance producing first looks at some contenders. The most high profile is Quentin Tarantino’s OnceUponaTimeinHollywood, which is out July 26 but debuted in the French Riviera. The celebrated auteur’s ninth feature immediately became a player in Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Leonardo DiCaprio (Actor), Brad Pitt (probably Supporting Actor), and Margot Robbie (Supporting Actress), as well as down the line tech races.
Cannes also served as the launching point for two contenders in the newly termed Best International Feature Film. They are Pedro Almodovar’s PainandGlory and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite, which won the Palme d’Or. With Glory, expect lots of chatter for its star Antonio Banderas to receive his first nod in Actor.
As for other possibilities in the lead Actor derby, we have Taron Egerton’s portrayal of Elton John in Rocketman. If Rami Malek could take home the gold last year for BohemianRhapsody, it’s certainly feasible that Egerton will have his supporters. Cannes also debuted the horror pic TheLighthouse with raves for Willem Dafoe. And though it’s a reach, there could be a push for Robert Downey Jr. to garner recognition for his decade plus embodiment of Tony Stark/Iron Man in Avengers: Endgame.
When it comes to Endgame, I would anticipate talk for a Picture nod, especially after BlackPanther became the first comic book pic to get one last year. At this juncture, I’ll say it gets plenty of chatter and no nomination. Yet that paradigm could shift.
Sundance gave us the true life political drama TheReport. That pic features both Adam Driver and Annette Bening in roles that drew acclaim. It’s out stateside in late September and is one to keep an eye on.
2019 has produced numerous female lead performances that could all be classified as dark horse contenders. The list includes Lupita Nyong’o (Us), Julianne Moore (GloriaBell), Awkwafina (TheFarewell), Elisabeth Moss (HerSmell), Elle Fanning (TeenSpirit), Florence Pugh (Midsommar), and Jessie Buckley (WildRose).
Despite its disappointing box office grosses, Olivia Wilde’s coming of age comedy Booksmart might be considered in Original Screenplay. Same goes for TheFarewell ahead of its release in a couple weeks.
For Best Animated Feature, ToyStory4 looks to be a slam dunk for a nomination and that also holds true for HowtoTrainYourDragon: TheHiddenWorld. Already released titles such as MissingLink and TheSecretLifeofPets2 are likely on the outside looking in.
As for documentaries, keep an eye on Apollo11, TheBiggestLittleFarm, and RollingThunderRevue: ABobDylanStoryByMartinScorsese. I would say Apollo is a strong contender for inclusion.
And that’s your report, ladies and gentlemen! Get ready for a whole bunch of Oscar speculation in the second half of the year…
Spider–Man: FarFromHome opens on Tuesday next week with solid reviews in its corner. With a 90% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, many critics are calling it an improvement on its direct predecessor – 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming.
When it comes to Oscar’s history with the Spider-Verse over multiple features, there is past and very recent occurrences. The first two editions of Sam Raimi’s Tobey Maguire trilogy garnered nods. 2002’s Spider–Man nabbed Sound and Visual Effects nominations. Its 2004 sequel won Visual Effects, in addition to Sound nods. Since then, the four live-action features (one more with Maguire, two with Andrew Garfield, and Homecoming) received no awards love. However, last year’s animated and acclaimed Spider–Man: IntotheSpider–Verse was the winner of Best Animated Feature.
FarFromHome is, of course, part of the massive Marvel Cinematic Universe. If the studio pushes for Oscar votes, their attention in 2019 is likely to focus on Avengers: Endgame. So even with sturdy critical reaction, I would anticipate this being the fifth non-animated Spidey pic in a row to go empty handed. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Arriving smack dab in Hollywood’s version of midsummer is Ari Aster’s Midsommar next week. The horror pic is the filmmaker’s sophomore effort after his critically acclaimed debut Hereditary from last summer. Centered around a pair of couples who attend a mysterious Swedish festival that occurs every 90 years, the creepy flick stars Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor, William Jackson Harper, and Will Poulter.
Like Hereditary, Aster’s follow-up has garnered strong critical reaction with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%. Last June, Hereditary started off with $13.5 million with an eventual $44 million domestic gross. Reviewers liked it more than audiences did and word of mouth suggests that could apply to Midsommar.
It’s out on Wednesday to capitalize on the long July 4th holiday frame. A potential comp could be 2014’s DeliverUsFromEvil, another scary title that opened over the same weekend. Evil took in nearly $10 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday period with $15 million when adding Wednesday and Thursday. I’ll say Midsommar falls a bit under those numbers.
Midsommar opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For my Spider–Man: FarFromHome prediction, click here:
Peter Parker’s European vacation goes awry and Marvel looks to have its third massive 2019 blockbuster in a row when Spider–Man: FarFromHome opens next week over a long holiday weekend. The sequel to 2017’s Spider–Man: Homecoming finds Tom Holland returning to the title role after appearing in Avengers: InfinityWar and Avengers: Endgame in between. Jon Watts is back directing with familiar MCU faces Samuel L. Jackson, Cobie Smulders, and Jon Favreau among the cast. Returnees from Homecoming include Zendaya, Marisa Tomei, and Jacob Batalon. Newbies to this cinematic universe are J.B. Smoove and Jake Gyllenhaal as main villain Mysterio.
The sequel should benefit tremendously from the MCU’s hot streak. Endgame and CaptainMarvel stand as the top two grossers of the year so far. Homecoming was well received two summers ago with a $334 million domestic haul. Advance word of mouth is strong.
Spidey flicks have a history of debuting over the July 4th frame. 2004’s Spider–Man2 also had a six-day rollout and earned $180 million in that time frame. Same goes for 2012’s reboot TheAmazingSpider–Man with $137 million from Tuesday to Sunday.
FarFromHome gets underway on Tuesday and I believe earnings approaching $200 million is doable. I’ll say this manages a bit under $100 million from the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with just under the double century mark over the holiday.
Spider-Man: Far From Home opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $190.4 million
Another creepy doll looks to hit the runner-up spot while ToyStory4 stays in first place this weekend as Conjuring Cinematic Universe entry AnnabelleComesHome debuts. We also have the high concept musical comedy Yesterday out and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
It seems awfully risky in the summer of 2019 to project that a sequel will come close to meeting expectations. Not even ToyStory4 managed to do that (more on that below), but that’s where I’m at by saying Annabelle will gross in the high 20s for its Friday to Sunday earnings and high 30s when taking in the Wednesday and Thursday money.
As mentioned, Pixar’s fourth pairing of Woody and Buzz should have no trouble maintaining top position. ToyStory3 dipped 46% in its sophomore frame and I look for this to lose around half its volume.
Yesterday, in my view, once had breakout potential. However, so-so reviews don’t help. My estimate for The Beatles themed pic puts it just behind Aladdin in fourth place. TheSecretLifeofPets2 may stay put in fifth as I figure the drops for Child’sPlay and MeninBlack: International will be more severe.
And with that, my top five for the weekend:
1. ToyStory4
Predicted Gross: $60.3 million
2. AnnabelleComesHome
Predicted Gross: $27.4 million (Friday to Sunday), $38 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
4. Yesterday
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
5. TheSecretLifeofPets2
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
BoxOfficeResults (June21–23)
Pixar scored yet another hit with ToyStory4. Yet the acclaimed sequel (arriving nine years after part three) unquestionably made less than anticipated at $120.9 million. While that’s $10 million over its predecessor, that’s a far cry from my $167.5 million forecast. And even if you think I was being generous, the floor for most projections was around $140 million. I wouldn’t feel too bad for Disney as they’re having a terrific year thus far.
The return of Chucky was met with ambivalence as Child’sPlay was second with $14 million compared to my $17.6 million prediction. Look for it to fade fast, especially with that other dastardly doll arriving Wednesday. The reboot only cost a reported $10 million to make so United Artists shouldn’t be too upset either.
Aladdin was third with $13.2 million (I said $13 million) and it’s up to $288 million in the coffers.
MeninBlack: International tumbled from first to fourth with $10.7 million, below my $13.1 million projection for just $52 million. This reboot, like DarkPhoenix before it, looks to come in under $100 million domestically.
TheSecretLifeofPets2 rounded out the top five with $10.2 million. I was higher at $12.6 million. The three-week tally is $117 million.
Finally, the Luc Besson action thriller Anna was a flop in ninth with $3.6 million. My prediction? $3.6 million! That almost makes up for being $40 million plus off ToyStory4! Ok maybe not…
After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival last fall, WildRose was released stateside in limited fashion this weekend. The musical drama casts Jessie Buckley as an ex con and mother of two who aspires to be a country crooner. Tom Harper directs and costars include Julie Walters and Sophie Okonedo.
Reviews have been strong and the pic stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Special attention has especially been paid to Buckley, who is also among the cast of HBO’s huge miniseries hit Chernobyl.
Rose struggled to blossom at the box office this weekend on four screens. It’s doubtful it will post significant numbers in multiplexes. Yet there could be a sizable push for Buckley to nab a Best Actress nod (and maybe Nicole Taylor’s original screenplay). My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Oscar winning director Danny Boyle, who clearly enjoys playing in multiple genres, tries his hand at a musical comedy next weekend with Yesterday. The high concept pic puts forth the theory that only one aspiring songwriter (Himesh Patel) rememberers The Beatles and cashes in on the world’s memory loss. Costars include Lily James, Kate McKinnon, and Ed Sheeran.
Mr. Boyle, as mentioned, has a varied filmography that includes Trainspotting and its sequel, 28DaysLater and its follow-up, Best Picture winner SlumdogMillionaire, and SteveJobs. When Yesterday premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival, its so-so reception killed any potential awards chatter. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 68%.
While there’s legions of Fab Four fans out there, I don’t see this turning into a summer sleeper. I believe this will struggle to reach $10 million.
Yesterday opening weekend prediction: $9.1 million
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