Month: September 2026

Oscar Predictions: Ink

The Venice Film Festival kicks off today with Telluride and Toronto soon to follow. Danny Boyle’s Ink is the Italian fest’s opening feature. The filmmaker’s Slumdog Millionaire was the Best Picture honoree in 2008. Based on the 2017 stage play, the film recounts the founding and evolution of British tabloid The Sun from the late 1960s to the 1980s. Jack O’Connell, Claire Foy, and Guy Pearce (as Rupert Murdoch) headline the cast. Ink is slated for a limited and Oscar-qualifying theatrical engagement on December 11th before a Netflix bow on January 8th.

Sometimes a festival premiere will greatly increase or decrease a pic’s awards viability. The initial reaction to Ink pretty much puts it where I assumed it was. With 87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic, reviews are generally praising many aspects without going overboard.

I’ve had Ink just on the outside looking in for Best Picture contention. My update three days ago had it 11th. Netflix faces a choice with how hard they go in their campaign as The Black Ball will likely be their main focus. Right now my hunch that it misses the BP cut feels correct.

The buzz from Venice also indicates that O’Connell, Foy, and Pearce all deliver fine performances. However, only Pearce seems truly viable for consideration in the Supporting Actor field. The veteran performer landed his first nom two years ago for The Brutalist and was arguably runner-up for the win. He is nowhere near a shoo-in to make the final five though I suspect he’ll be in the mix in a way his costars are not.

Ink could also play in Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing. For the latter, that may apply only if it sneaks into the BP race. That is certainly a possibility, but I’m leaning the other way as the ink figuratively dries on this write-up. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

September 4-7 Box Office Predictions

There are multiple new releases making their way to multiplexes over the Labor Day frame, but I only have one managing a top five showing. That would be 1960s set crime thriller By Any Means with Mark Wahlberg and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as it attempts double digits over the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

By Any Means Box Office Prediction

As summer turns into fall on the cinematic calendar, the MCU should be perched atop the charts for a sixth weekend in a row courtesy of Spider-Man: Brand New Day. A note that over this particular weekend, holdovers often experience minimal percentage declines or even a slight increase as moviegoers catch up on recent offerings. From Friday to Monday, I have Spidey essentially doing what it did in its fifth outing.

The Odyssey could return to second place from third while Coyote vs. Acme drops a spot after a notable premiere (more on that below). The latter’s second week drop is a head scratcher and it could be more front-loaded that I’m assuming. On the flip side, families could show up in solid numbers since it appears to have fresh word-of-mouth with an A Cinemascore.

Means may flirt with $10M+ in a best case scenario though I’ve got falling under for a fourth place start and Insidious: Out of the Further rounding out the top five.

As for other fresh product, I’m skeptical that horror offering Onslaught from Adam Wingard, survival flick sequel Fall 2: Deadpoint (out Wednesday), or Pixar’s 20th anniversary re-issue of Cars populate the top half of the top ten so no individual posts for that trio.

And with that, here’s how I have the top 5 shaking out and keep in mind that these are Friday through Monday guesstimates:

1. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Predicted Gross: $23 million

2. The Odyssey

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million

3. Coyote vs. Acme

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. By Any Means

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

5. Insidious: Out of the Further

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

As anticipated, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had no trouble swinging to a fifth victory with $22.5 million, in line with my $23.2 million call. With $891 million in its coffers, Day looks to exceed domestic record holder Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936 million) in short order.

After Warner Bros jettisoned it as a tax write-off in 2023, Ketchup Entertainment squeezed some decent figures out of the live-action/animated hybrid Coyote vs. Acme. With $15.9 million, it was runner-up and surpassed my $13.8 million projection. Considering it was never going to see the light of day if WB had their way, it’s a better than expected result.

The Odyssey was third after four weeks in second position with $14.3 million, just under my $15.6 million call for a seven-week take of $563 million.

Insidious: Out of the Further dropped 59% in its sophomore weekend with $10.2 million compared to my $9.4 million take. The sixth feature in the horror franchise is at $43 million total.

With so-so reviews and muted WOM, Ridley Scott’s The Dog Stars starring Jacob Elordi, Josh Brolin, and Margaret Qualley failed to find an audience in fifth with $7.7 million (I said $8.3 million).

Finally, Roadside Attractions had a laudable showing with the low-budget Buddy in sixth. I didn’t do a prediction write-up for it, but the satirical horror tale made $5.5 million. The per theater average nearly equaled that of Acme.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…