Month: February 2023

Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans

My Case Of posts will for the ten Best Picture hopefuls is past the halfway point as we consider the pros and cons of our sixth competitor The Fabelmans.

The Case for The Fabelmans:

Steven Spielberg’s 13th movie to be nominated for BP (only Schindler’s List won) is his most personal as arguably today’s most iconic director gets autobiographical. It was first seen at the Toronto Film Festival where it took the People’s Choice Award. That’s a prize shared by later Oscar winners such as The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. At the Golden Globes, it had a big night as it was bestowed Best Motion Picture (Drama) and Spielberg nabbed the directorial trophy. A victory here could be seen as a genuine thank you for its maker’s cinematic contributions.

The Case Against The Fabelmans:

That genuine thank you could just as easily come with Spielberg being Best Director and BP going to something else. Despite the Globes love, BAFTA was shockingly dismissive as its sole nomination is for screenplay. At Critics Choice, it went a mere 1/11 with Gabriel LaBelle as Best Young Actor (a non-existent Academy race). While the seven nominations are decent, there were notable omissions including Film Editing and Cinematography. It’s also undeniably a box office dud with $16 million at press time.

Other Nominations:

Director (Spielberg), Actress (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor (Judd Hirsch), Original Screenplay, Original Score, Production Design

The Verdict:

There is a universe in which The Fabelmans gets BP and Director, but I would put it behind Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin right now. An Ensemble win at SAG could help momentum. It may be behind the aforementioned at that ceremony too.

My Case Of posts will continue with Tár!

If you missed my previous posts in the series, you can access them here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness
Oscars: The Case of Women Talking

Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

On February 10th, we will see if audiences are ready to go back to Titanic. The James Cameron romance pic/disaster flick is being re-released on the occasion of its 25th anniversary. This is just as Avatar: The Way of Water wraps up its seven-week #1 domestic stand with $2 billion+ worldwide run at multiplexes.

The movie that made Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet icons currently stands as the 8th largest stateside earner in history. At the time of its release, it vaulted to first place. With $659 million overall (and that includes some previous re-releases), it could jump a spot over Avengers: Infinity War ($678 million). Worldwide it is #3 ($2.2 billion) with Water ($2.1 billion) hot on its heels. And, yes, Cameron does now have three of the four all-time global grossers with Avatar ($2.8 billion) atop that chart.

Speaking of the original Avatar, it was put back in theaters last September a few months before the sequel was unleashed. It made $10.5 million in its first frame of re-issuance. I could see Titanic matching or maybe slightly exceeding that figure.

Titanic 25th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $11.6 million

For my Magic Mike’s Last Dance prediction, click here:

Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction

Magic Mike’s Last Dance Box Office Prediction

**Blogger’s Update (02/03): There are reports that the film is only releasing on around 1500 screens. Therefore I am revising my estimate down significantly from $17.7M to $10.7M. If the theater count changes, I will update accordingly.

A decade after they turned a meagerly budgeted $7 million dramedy into a $100M+ hit, Magic Mike’s Last Dance is the third iteration (or gyration) of Steven Soderbergh and Channing Tatum’s franchise. The former returns to direct after sitting out 2015’s sequel Magic Mike XXL after helming the 2012 original. The latter is back in the role that turned him into a superstar. His costars from the first two are MIA, but Salma Hayek Pinault, Ayub Khan Din, and Caitlin Gerard join the fun.

After being absent onscreen for several years, Tatum returned to multiplexes in 2022 with his directorial debut Dog ($61 million domestic gross) and The Lost City alongside Sandra Bullock ($105 million stateside). Last Dance was originally slated for an HBO Max premiere before Warner Bros opted for the theatrical output.

It’s worth noting that Magic Mike XXL couldn’t match part 1. The 2012 model made $113 million. XXL generated half of that with $66 million. The diminishing returns could continue unless female moviegoers are feeling especially nostalgic. That’s possible, but I’m skeptical. Some of that demographic may opt for the Titanic re-release instead. Low teens is probably the floor and I don’t believe this surpasses $20 million out of the gate.

Magic Mike’s Last Dance opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million

For my Titanic 25th Anniversary prediction, click here:

Titanic 25th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Knock at the Cabin

Nearly a quarter century ago, M. Night Shyamalan’s phenom The Sixth Sense scared up six Oscar nominations including Best Picture and Director. It didn’t win any, but it established the filmmaker as a force at the box office. His fortunes have certainly ebbed and flowed in the 21st century with financial hits and misses. As far as awards attention, only 2004’s The Village achieved another Academy nod for its score.

Shyamalan’s latest is the apocalyptic thriller Knock at the Cabin with Dave Bautista headlining the cast. Based on Paul G. Tremblay’s 2018 novel, Knock‘s embargo is up today ahead of its Friday release. The results are pretty encouraging with a 71% Rotten Tomatoes score. At the low point in his filmography, he had a string of flops and critical bombs (Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, After Earth) that racked up plenty of Golden Raspberry mentions.

Cabin is ahead of Shyamalan’s two predecessors Glass and Old as far as the RT meter. It isn’t as high (77%) as comeback vehicle Split from 2017. While Bautista is being complimented for his performance, I don’t see this being welcomed in any of the Academy races a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars: The Case of Everything Everywhere All at Once

Everything Everywhere All at Once is fifth on the docket in my Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees. Let’s plead the case for and against it!

The Case for Everything Everywhere All at Once:

The sophomore feature from Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (known collectively as the Daniels) debuted at South by Southwest on March 11th and will have been a legit contender for over a year when the Oscars air March 12th. A critical darling with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes rating, it has been nominated in every major precursor. This includes 10 BAFTA nominations, 14 Critics Choice mentions with 5 wins (including Picture, Director and Screenplay), 6 Golden Globe nods with two wins for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, and 5 pending SAG noms. While some have griped that recent BP recipients didn’t break through with mass audiences, Everything was a box office success with $71 million domestically. Its 11 Academy nods are the most of any picture and that includes four for its ensemble (Yeoh, Quan, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu).

The Case Against Everything Everywhere All at Once:

In the last 10 ceremonies, only two films that led or tied in total nominations (Birdman and The Shape of Water) ended up winning BP. One could argue Everything is the frontrunner. In recent years, ask how that worked out for La La Land, Roma, and 1917. The Academy could follow the Globes suit and skew toward The Banshees of Inisherin. There are some prognosticators who feel it’s too strange for the Academy.

Other Nominations:

Director (the Daniels), Actress (Michelle Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Jamie Lee Curtis), Supporting Actress (Stephanie Hsu), Supporting Actor (Ke Huy Quan), Original Screenplay, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Original Song

The Verdict:

I’ve never bought the “too weird for the Academy” or not traditional enough argument. You could say the same for Birdman or The Shape of Water and Everything is looking to model them on the road to victory. It is risky to be out front, but I do feel this is the odds on favorite. A SAG Ensemble loss on February 26th (especially if it’s to Banshees or The Fabelmans) could cause more intrigue. If it wins, look for this to enter March 12th as even more of a probable BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with The Fabelmans!

If you missed my other posts in this series, you can find them here:

Oscars: The Case of All Quiet on the Western Front
Oscars – The Case of Avatar: The Way of Water
Oscars: The Case of The Banshees of Inisherin
Oscars: The Case of Elvis
Oscars: The Case of The Fabelmans
Oscars: The Case of Tár
Oscars – The Case of Top Gun: Maverick
Oscars: The Case of Triangle of Sadness
Oscars: The Case of Women Talking