Guy Ritchie and Jason Statham’s violently comedic cinematic partnership continues on March 3rd with Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre. The spy pic reunites the director and lead nearly two years after their fourth collaboration Wrath of Man. Costars include Aubrey Plaza, Josh Hartnett, Cary Elwes, Bugsy Malone, and Hugh Grant (who has appeared in Ritchie’s The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Gentlemen).
Fortune has not been paved with a smooth road to domestic release. It was first slated for stateside distribution in early 2022. However, the film’s depiction of Ukrainian baddies scuttled the premiere due to the nation’s conflict with Russia. Lionsgate picked up the rights and recently announced the early March output. It has already been out in numerous territories with $30 million in the bank. Reviews are so-so with 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
This hasn’t had much time for a spirited marketing campaign. In May of 2021, Wrath of Man managed just over $8 million when theaters were deep in the midst of the pandemic. However, it debuted on nearly 3000 screens while Fortune is pegged for around 2000.
There’s also Creed III which should siphon away plenty of potential moviegoers. I believe the tale of Fortune‘s gross will be a mid single digits start.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre opening weekend prediction: $4 million
The 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards air this Sunday evening and they are often a reliable preview of what direction the Academy will go. In their races for Actress, Actor, and Supporting Actor – there has been an 8/10 correlation over the past decade for SAG/Oscar matches. With Supporting Actress – it is 9/10.
Let’s walk through each of the six categories with my predicted winner and a runner-up, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Women Talking
Since the SAGs began in 1995, only one winner (1996’s The Birdcage) wasn’t at least nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars. That rules out Babylon. I think (like some earlier precursors) this comes down to Everything v Banshees. I’m majorly tempted to say Banshees as the voters could see it as a way to honor the four thespians nominated in the individual races below. However, I’m giving a very slight edge to SAG doing the same for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and others for Everything.
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett (Tár), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
SAG could bestow Yeoh with the trophy, but Blanchett’s work may simply be undeniable at this juncture. If Banshees ends up taking Ensemble, I do think it increases Yeoh’s chances here.
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Bill Nighy (Living), Adam Sandler (Hustle)
I feel like Farrell really needed that BAFTA last weekend and he didn’t emerge victorious. So it’s a two-person race between Butler and Fraser. And I’m struggling with this one. I could easily envision fellow actors crowning Fraser’s dramatic comeback that includes a Critics Choice award. Yet Butler has seen an impressive run that includes the Golden Globe and BAFTA. This is a coin flip, but I’ll say Butler has a little more momentum.
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Hong Chau (The Whale), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
A quintet that matches the Oscar five, Condon disrupted the possibility of Bassett sweeping when she took the BAFTA. They’re the two likeliest winners. I will say Curtis scoring an upset is feasible. I think the smart money is on Bassett with Condon as the runner-up.
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
BAFTA again had a trick up their sleeve when Keoghan surprised over Quan. I think SAG will follow the lead of the Globes and Critics Choice and bring the latter back to the stage.
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Outstanding by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Woman King
The only pic that I don’t think has a shot is Avatar because the original in 2009 didn’t even land a nom. 2018’s Black Panther won so Wakanda is certainly viable. Those pilots from Maverick did same amazing stuff though. They’re my pick.
Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Runner-Up: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
And there you have it! I’ll have a recap up Sunday evening with my thoughts on what happened compared to my predictions.
Creed III looks to clobber Scott Lang (aka Ant-Man) and all other competitors when it debuts March 3rd. The sporty sequel finds star Michael B. Jordan handling directorial duties in his behind the camera debut. This is the first feature in the Rocky Cinematic Universe with no involvement from Sylvester Stallone. Jonathan Majors, currently playing the antagonist in Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, is Creed’s former childhood friend and latest opponent. Tessa Thompson, Wood Harris, Florian Munteanu, and Phylicia Rashad return to the franchise.
In 2015, Creed was a critical and commercial hit from Ryan Coogler. Over the Thanksgiving holiday, it took in just over $30 million from Friday to Sunday and nearly $43 million over the five-day start. The eventual domestic haul was $109 million. Three Turkey Days later came Creed II with Steven Caple Jr. directing and audiences were hungry for more. It topped its predecessor with $35 million for the three-day and $55 million when including Wednesday and Thursday.
Early word-of-mouth is sturdy for the third edition. Like parts I and II, this was originally slated for Thanksgiving last year before United Artists made a shift. Creed III could manage to score the highest three-day launch of the bunch and approach $40 million out of the gate. I will put it just under that for a three-day best franchise opening.
Creed III opening weekend prediction: $39.2 million
For my Operation Fortune: Rose de Guerre prediction, click here:
Well ahead of its scheduled late August debut stateside, Golda was unveiled this week at the Berlin Film Festival. From Guy Nativ (whose 2018 short film Skin won the Academy Award in that category), the biopic casts four-time nominee and one time winner Helen Mirren as Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir. Costars include Camille Cottin, Ed Stoppard, and Liev Schreiber.
Mirren is, of course, no stranger to playing leaders of nations. For her work as Queen Elizabeth II in 2006’s The Queen, she was crowned Best Actress. The other nods are for Supporting Actress in 1995’s The Madness of King George and 2001’s Gosford Park and in lead for 2009’s The Last Station.
The handful of Golda reviews thus far are mixed and it holds just a 40% Rotten Tomatoes rating. That said, praise for Mirren is present. It is entirely possible that this is ignored altogether a few months down the road by awards voters.
Another potential path is one taken by 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Despite its middling critical reaction, Chastain landed an Oscar nod and win. It also picked up a Makeup and Hairstyling victory. Golda is being heralded for its makeup work to make Mirren resemble the PM. Unlike Tammy, I don’t think this has a shot of winning either category. Nominations aren’t out of the question. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
While Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania should easily stay in the number one spot, Cocaine Bear looks for a strong #2 showing and Jesus Revolution hopes to rise above expectations. They are the newcomers this weekend and my detailed prediction posts on them can be found here:
Cocaine Bear has generated buzz since its trailer (and honestly the title reveal). It could blow past my low teens estimate, but I do believe the appeal might be somewhat limited.
Jesus Revolution, as other faith-based dramas have, could exceed my sub double digits projection. A third place showing seems likely. If it does surpass my prognosis and Cocaine comes in under mine, a battle for the runner-up position is feasible.
Quantumania opened in its expected range and crawled ahead of my estimate (more on that below). It also received a troubling Cinemascore grade of B (tying the lowest for the MCU with Eternals). That should mean a sophomore drop in the mid to high 60s (similar to Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder from last year) is coming.
Holiday holdovers Avatar: The Way of Water and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish should round out the top five. Here’s how I envision it:
1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $34.2 million
2. Cocaine Bear
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million
3. Jesus Revolution
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
4. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
5. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (February 17-20)
As anticipated, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania commanded the long President’s Day frame with $120.3 million from Friday to Monday. That’s ahead of my $109.1 million estimate. That easily makes for the best start to the three Ant pics (as was expected). Per above, the second weekend dip should be substanial.
Avatar: The Way of Water held in second with $8 million compared to my $6.1 million prediction. The mega-sequel has amassed $659 million domestically.
The sequel love continued with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish at $7 million in third, slashing past my $5.8 million take. Total is $167 million.
Magic Mike’s Last Dance dropped from 1st to 4th though it doubled its theater count from approximately 1500 to over 3000. It made $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) for overall earnings of $18 million.
Knock at the Cabin was fifth and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. With $4.6 million, the three-week gross is $31 million.
Finally, 80 for Brady was sixth with $4.5 million compared to my $4.2 million guesstimate. The octogenarian comedy is up to $33 million.
And that does it for now, folks! In case you didn’t know, I’ve started a podcast where you can hear my box office and Oscar predictions and the link for it is below. Until next time…
The silent days and boisterous evenings of Hollywood in the 1920s and 30s are meticulously depicted in Babylon. From the gourd of Damien Chazelle, this is his version of Boogie Nights in many respects. It focuses on one version of Tinseltown technology fading out in favor of another. In Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterpiece from a quarter century ago, it was X rated material shot on film being transitioned to video. Here it’s the silent era making way for talkies. The adult entertainment is on ample display at the swank and sweaty bashes that feature cocaine and elephants as party favors.
We meet the main principals at an L.A. happening in 1926. Manny Torres (Diego Calva) is an immigrant doing menial work for Kinoscope Studios. At the company’s debauched soirée, aspiring star Nellie LaRoy (Margot Robbie) literally crashes into his consciousness and a years long infatuation is born. Jack Conrad (Brad Pitt) is the already established screen hero whose shooting schedules seem to last longer than his marriages. Jazz trumpeter Sidney Palmer (Jovan Adepo) provides the soundtrack to the sin while cabaret songstress Lady Fay Zhu (Li Jun Li) supplies sultry vocals. Columnist Elinor St. John (Jean Smart) is around to gossip about it.
The night serves as the intro point for Manny and Nellie to mount separate meteoric rises in a shifting industry. She becomes a silent film sensation just as sound (courtesy of The Jazz Singer) is around the corner. Manny’s connection with Conrad opens doors to big jobs as the movie headliner’s career begins a downward slide. Palmer, meanwhile, becomes a popular if exploited attraction in a series of musicals.
For three hours plus, Babylon celebrates and denigrates the excesses of the era. Nellie’s substance fueled rocket ride and downfall is given bulky screen time while others get the short shrift (Jun Li’s Zhu being one example). There is impressive production design to spare where odious actions occur within the walls. Tobey Maguire’s cameo as a whacked out criminal at an underground function displays scenarios that might make Robbie’s and her costars from The Wolf of Wall Street blush.
Chazelle’s message is pretty straightforward when there isn’t vomit and defecate being spewed. As ugly as Hollywood is, the end result can be beautiful. This is evident in a couple of terrific sequences that show the joy and pain of moviemaking. In one we witness Conrad’s war-torn romance catch the light at the perfect time. In another we suffer along with Nellie as she acclimates herself to the noise being introduced to celluloid.
I wish the gifted provider of Whiplash and La La Land could’ve reigned himself in. The aforementioned segments show how special this would have been with a tighter focus. Unfortunately it’s not only septa being deviated from. While Robbie and Pitt both have shining moments, Chazelle’s screenplay never makes Manny a compelling central figure. Calva doesn’t have much to work with considering his blank slate of a character. There are many known faces that pop up in the crowded script including Olivia Wilde and Katherine Waterston as fleeting wives to Conrad. Lukas Haas is the sad sack friend to the frequent divorcee whose character is similar to William H. Macy’s in Boogie Nights. That picture and Babylon take place in different eras of Hollywood shifts. One is brilliant. The other is occasionally inspired and often maddening.
Swedish satirist Ruben Östlund’s direction of Triangle of Sadness is next up in my Case Of posts for the directors vying for the Oscar.
The Case for Ruben Östlund:
After garnering acclaim for Force Majeure (2014) and 2017’s The Square (which nabbed a foreign language feature nod), his English-language debutcornered three noms in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It generated buzz early when it took the Palme d’or at Cannes. The admiration for the film led to his surprise inclusion in the filmmaking quintet.
The Case Against Ruben Östlund:
In Best Director, there is usually a surprise nominee. That’s Östlund this time. The downside is that the surprise nominee doesn’t win. He wasn’t up in any of the key precursors like DGA, Golden Globes, or Critics Choice Awards.
Other Nominations:
None for direction
Foreign Language Film (The Square; 2017); Original Screenplay (Triangle of Sadness; 2022)
The Verdict:
Of the five hopefuls in the race, Östlund stands the fifth best (so… worst) chance at nabbing the statue.
My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans!
The other entries for the Best Director contenders can be accessed here:
The past 24 hours have likely been impactful when it comes to figuring the puzzle that is Oscar prognosticating. The BAFTAs and the DGAs announced their winners. The latter went as expected. The Brits, on the other hand, showed they are still capable of surprises.
Across that pond, Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made a lot of noise. The German WWI epic won 7 out of its 14 nominations. This includes Best Film and Director. I predicted those categories would go to The Banshees of Inisherin and the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once). Side note – I went 13 for 22 overall on the BAFTA picks. Quiet also took Adapted Screenplay over my favored Living. The other four were Film Not in the English Language, Cinematography, Original Score, and Sound. I called 3 of those 4, but had Babylon listed in Score instead. Ironically I picked Quiet to take Production Design. That went to Babylon.
While this is a great BAFTA performance for Quiet, I don’t believe it dramatically changes its dynamic at the Oscars. I still don’t view it as a threat to emerge victorious in Best Picture. It’s important to remember that just 3 out of the past 10 BAFTA winners ended up nabbing the biggest race at the Academy Awards. Nomadland (from 2020) is the only match of the previous 8 ceremonies. And, of course, Berger isn’t even nominated in Director for the Oscars.
In the lead acting derbies, I correctly called the victors with Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Austin Butler (Elvis). This solidifies each as the frontrunners and it especially hurts Colin Farrell for Banshees. I would say he needed this to have any real shot at Best Actor on March 12th (unless he somehow manages an upset at SAG next weekend).
Banshees made up for the Best Film and Actor losses in the supporting fields. Kerry Condon is Supporting Actress which I projected. She has emerged as the alternative to Oscar favorite Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. One of the massive upsets is Barry Keoghan winning Supporting Actor over the heavily favored Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All at Once (who was sweeping until today). I still believe Quan is looking good for Oscar.
Further races I got right: Banshees in Original Screenplay; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio as Animated Film (continuing its sweep); Elvis in Costume Design; Everything Everywhere for Editing; Avatar: The Way of Water‘s Visual Effects; Banshees for Outstanding British Film; and Aftersun for Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer.
Where I went wrong: Navalny is Best Documentary over Fire of Love and Elvis took Casting instead of Everything Everywhere and won Make-Up & Hair over The Whale. That means Banshees and Elvis each earned 4 statues. Nothing else won more than one.
As I relayed in my DGA prediction, the directorial recipient there has matched the Oscar winning director 19 of 22 times in the 21st century. The Daniels were honorees for Everything Everywhere. Even though Everything won only Editing at BAFTA, I still think it’s the frontrunner for BP at the Oscars (as are the Daniels).
Bottom line: Quiet was loud at BAFTA. Yet the most significant storyline with Academy impact could be Butler and Blanchett firming up their standings.
For his brief but memorable appearance as an eccentric granduncle in Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans, Judd Hirsch is next up in my Case Of posts for the Supporting Actor nominees.
The Case for Judd Hirsch:
From TV shows Taxi and Dear John to movies including Ordinary People and Independence Day, Hirsch has been a fixture on screens small and large for decades. His inclusion here comes 42 years after a nod in the same category for Ordinary People and that stands as the longest gap between recognitions in Oscar history. Besides that cool storyline, he scored a Critics Choice mention and managed to get in over his more favored costar Paul Dano.
The Case Against Judd Hirsch:
Hirsch was omitted at the Golden Globes, SAG, and BAFTA for individual honors. He’s only in the film for about 10 minutes and that’s brought some gripes about whether he should be in the quintet at all. Most importantly, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) is probably the sturdiest frontrunner in any of the acting competitions.
Previous Nominations:
Supporting Actor (Ordinary People; 1980)
The Verdict:
Hirsch was a real question mark to make the cut. There’s not much mystery about his chances to win as they’re basically non-existent.
My Case Of posts will continue with Ruben Östlund’s direction for Triangle of Sadness!
For my other posts covering the Supporting Actor contenders, click here:
As Colin Farrell’s kindly sibling in Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin, Kerry Condon is the next Supporting Actress hopeful for consideration in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Kerry Condon:
The stage and screen thespian stole some scenes in the main quartet of Banshees performers who were all nominated. Condon has landed precursor nods in all major ceremonies and picked up a few critics groups prizes.
The Case Against Kerry Condon:
Due to Angela Bassett’s performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Condon was not victorious at the Golden Globes or Critics Choice Awards. That leaves her, at best, in runner-up status.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
I do believe Condon is second at the moment and she could manage to upset frontrunner Bassett. A BAFTA win tomorrow or SAG next weekend could make her more viable. If Bassett continues to run the table, the gold might be out of reach.
My Case Of posts will continue with Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other Supporting Actress contenders can be accessed here:
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