Eddie Murphy, winner of tonight’s Cecil B. DeMille lifetime achievement, might have had the best timed Will Smith Oscar slap joke I’ve heard thus far (better than that of host Jerrod Carmichael). Mr. Murphy being funny was not a surprise. And there weren’t a whole lotta surprises for the cinematic victors at the 80th Golden Globes Awards… with a couple of exceptions.
I went 10/14 on my picks, but two of those misses happened to be the biggest prizes of all. After being snubbed for the shortlist of 16 filmmakers for BAFTA’s directing award, Steven Spielberg and his autobiographical The Fabelmans had an impressive and perhaps needed showing this evening. He won Best Director (which I did predict) and he capped the night by taking Best Motion Picture – Drama. I didn’t predict that as I went with Elvis instead.
The picture with tonight’s best showing was The Banshees of Inisherin at three podium trips. As expected, Colin Farrell was named Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy and Martin McDonagh took Best Screenplay. Banshees also emerged in Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy over my favored Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The news wasn’t all bad for Everything as Michelle Yeoh was Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy and Ke Huy Quan is your Best Supporting Actor. The Banshees victory could spawn some prognosticators switching their vote to it winning the BP Oscar. I’m thinking Everything is still very viable and The Fabelmans did what it needed to make this a three-picture race. Had Elvis or Top Gun: Maverick been your Drama pick, it might’ve surged the buzz for them. It wasn’t to be.
Other than the Motion Picture competitions, my other two misses were for Score and Non-English Language Film. In the former, Babylon was selected over my predicted Women Talking. For the latter, it produced the night’s only shocker as Argentina, 1985 was named instead of RRR (what I went with) and All Quiet on the Western Front (what plenty of others went with).
As for the remaining races I got right – Cate Blanchett is Best Actress (Drama) for Tár while Angela Bassett is Supporting Actress for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Austin Butler got the sole Elvis victory as Best Actor (Drama). Guillermo del Toro saw his version of Pinocchio be crowned Animated Feature. Finally, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR is Best Original Song over tunes from heavy hitters like Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Lady Gaga.
Bottom line: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and The Fabelmans have been my top 3 possibilities for Best Picture for many weeks. Nothing that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association did tonight changed that dynamic.
We’ve got a busy few days coming up with SAG and DGA nominations tomorrow and Critics Choice Awards airing Sunday. I’ll have my updated Oscar predictions up on Monday!
In addition to the SAG Awards announcing their nominees on Wednesday, we also have the Director Guild of America (DGA) revealing its five contenders for Outstanding Directing in a Feature Film.
This is a race that usually matches the Academy’s eventual 5 nominees with 80% accuracy. In the past decade, there’s been a 4 for 5 correlation in 8 of those years. There hasn’t been a 5 for 5 match since 2009.
Even though BAFTA shockingly left Steven Spielberg off its shortlist last week, he should make the cut here for The Fabelmans. It would also be quite unexpected for Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to miss for Everything Everywhere All at Once.
After that, it gets interesting. I do believe James Cameron is recognized for Avatar: The Way of Water. The DGA has recently named pics in the sci-fi genre that the Academy surprisingly ignored. Recent examples are Ridley Scott (The Martian) and Denis Villeneuve (Dune).
On the flip side, the DGA has left off foreign filmmakers that the Academy does recognize. This includes Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) and Ryusuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car) in the preceding two cycles. That could make the odds longer here for Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave), or S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) than at the Oscars.
My hunch is that the trio of Todd Field (Tár), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), and Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) are angling for the final two slots with Sarah Polley (Women Talking) as a potential spoiler. I’ve got Field in my Academy quintet right now but missing here.
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million. That puts it outside of the top 6.
The 2023 box office got off to an impressive start as studios hope the momentum continues over the four-day MLK weekend. A Man Called Otto expands and we have the Gerard Butler action flick Plane and comedy remake House Party landing. You can peruse my individual prediction posts on the trio here:
Otto, while technically not a newcomer, should perform the best of the newbies. It over performed in limited release this past weekend (more on that below) and could even make a run for #2 depending on the sophomore drop for M3GAN.
Speaking of that demented AI doll, a robust and clever marketing campaign propelled the PG-13 flick to a terrific start. Horror titles often experience hefty declines after their opening, but the holiday could mean a high teens (maybe even low 20s) gross is possible.
Neither M3GAN or Otto will prevent Avatar: The Way of Water from making it five in a row atop the charts. I’m thinking it manages high 30s to low 40s as it builds on the already half billion domestic haul.
As for Plane and House Party, I have both falling under double digits and that would leave them in 5th and 6th behind the fourth outing for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish.
Here’s how I see it playing out and remember that these forecasts are for Friday through Monday:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $41.2 million
2. M3GAN
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. A Man Called Otto
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Predicted Gross: $13 million
5. Plane
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
As mentioned, it was a healthy kickoff to the new year as Avatar: The Way of Water maintained first position with only a -32 decrease. That’s good for a fourth weekend collection of $45.8 million (beyond my $38.3 million prediction) as it’s amassed $517 million stateside.
M3GAN translated great buzz and sterling reviews to a $30.4 million premiere, dancing past my $24.8 million take. Universal ran a campaign that included memorable trailers and Tik Tok type vids of M3GAN’s crashing Times Square and media interviews. It paid off handsomely.
Universal had the third spot with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish earning $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.2 million projection. The animated sequel is up to $88 million with nine figures on deck.
Maybe grown-ups are ready to return to multiplexes! After plenty of awards bait adult features have disappointed in recent months, A Man Called Otto with Tom Hanks bucked the trend on a still limited 637 screens. The gross was $4.2 million and I incorrectly had it outside my top five.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $3.4 million) for $445 million total.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody was sixth with $2.4 million compared to my $2.1 million call. It’s at a ho-hum $19 million.
Another significant piece of the Oscar prognosticating puzzle is put together on Wednesday when nominations for the 29th Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards are dropped. The ceremony’s main prize, it’s important to note, is not Best Picture but Best Ensemble. That means a correlation from the Oscar BP and the top race here is not apples to apples. It is worth noting that half of the last 10 SAG Ensemble victors (Argo, Birdman, Spotlight, Parasite, CODA) did go on to win BP from the Academy. On the other hand, three recent BPs (The Shape of Water, Green Book, Nomadland) didn’t make the SAG quintet at all.
Let’s go through all six categories one by one with my picks and a runner-up call, shall we?
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
There are plenty of possibilities including box office hits like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick. For Panther, the original won Ensemble in 2018 so the sequel materializing is feasible. I wouldn’t discount the sprawling cast of Babylon though middling reviews could hurt it. It’s tempting to pick Glass Onion but I’m hesitant since Knives Out was snubbed in 2019.
Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Fabelmans seem safe. Despite the small call sheet for The Banshees of Inisherin (with just four significant roles), I could see the SAG branch honoring it. I’m also liking The Woman King‘s chances. Women Talking is perhaps the biggest question mark. It has underperformed with precursors. A couple of months ago, I’d have considered it a potential frontrunner to win. Now I wonder if it makes it at all. Nevertheless – here’s my take:
Predicted Nominees:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
The Woman King
Women Talking
Runner-Up: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
In the previous decade, SAG in Actress has matched the Academy 4/5 on six occasions and 3/5 on four. There are no perfect correlations. SAG has shown they will throw in a shocker – Jennifer Aniston in Cake, Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back or Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train are recent examples. If there’s one here, look out for Naomi Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody).
Margot Robbie (Babylon) is currently the one I’ve got in the Academy five (for the moment) that I don’t have here. Ana de Armas (Blonde) is a real threat. If she makes this quintet, look for her Oscar stock to soar. With those possibilities mentioned, my choices are…
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Ana de Armas, Blonde
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) should all be safe. Bill Nighy (Living) is fourth though I suspect there’s a better chance at SAG leaving him off than the Academy. Then there’s that five spot. It could be Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto), Hugh Jackman (The Son), or Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Take your pick. I’m leaning toward the star of the year’s biggest hit. On a side note, there’s been a SAG/Oscar match of 5/5 for the previous two cycles.
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Runner-Up: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Last year was an anomaly when just 2 of the SAG nominees (Ariana DeBose for West Side Story and The Power of the Dog‘s Kirsten Dunst) scored Oscar nods. The magic number is usually 3 or 4. The wide open nature of this race has been discussed a lot on the blog. Beyond my picks and runner-up, don’t discount Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Claire Foy (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), and Carey Mulligan (She Said).
Predicted Nominees:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Like Supporting Actress last year, there was only a 2 for 5 match with Troy Kotsur in CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Power of the Dog. Usually it’s 4. For 2022, I believe only Ke Huy Quan and Brendan Gleeson are safe assumptions. The remaining three slots should be some combo of Paul Dano (The Fabelmans), Tom Hanks (Elvis), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), Brad Pitt (Babylon), and Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) sorting it out.
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Runner-Up: Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble
Don’t discount The Batman or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, but my quintet is as follows…
Predicted Nominees:
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King
Runner-Up: RRR
That equates to these movies generating these numbers:
5 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3 Nominations
The Fabelmans, The Woman King
2 Nominations
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick, The Whale, Women Talking
1 Nomination
The Batman, Elvis, The Good Nurse, Living, Tár, Till
On Wednesday evening you can expect a recap of what happens after noms are revealed!
After controversies kept the 79th ceremony off of the air in 2021, the 80th Golden Golden Awards is set to air on NBC Tuesday night with Jerrod Carmichael hosting. When it comes down to winners for their contribution to film, we can safely bet on one. Eddie Murphy will receive the Cecil B. DeMille Award for his four decades of work onscreen. We can probably safely bet on more than just Eddie (Colin Farrell comes to mind).
Most categories are tougher to project. There are a number of races where I don’t feel confident with my arrived at winner. Quite frankly, if I go 7/14 this year, I’ll be content.
For each category, I’ll give you my pick and my runner-up. Unlike the Oscars, you won’t get detailed analysis though I will say here’s some of the categories that are tough:
Best Motion Picture (Drama) is a four-way race between everything not named Tár while Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) is a genuine two-way competition between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The Fabelmans might be fading with the Academy and that could hinder Spielberg’s chance at Director. The legendary filmmaker was very notably snubbed from the sixteen shortlist possibilities at BAFTA. However, that happened after voting had closed with HFPA. I still give him the slight edge with the Globes, but watch out for the Daniels or Baz Luhrmann.
In the lead acting races, three are easy to pick. Actor in a Drama is not as I think it’s a coin flip between Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. My selection comes down to what I chose for Best Picture.
I don’t think Carey Mulligan takes Supporting Actress for She Said. The other four are all viable. While Kerry Condon might be the soft favorite for Oscar, I could see the HFPA going with a more famous performer with a celebrated body of work. Whether that’s Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis is an excellent question.
RRR could take Non-English Language Film and Song though the runners-up are both strong spoilers. Women Talking, The Fabelmans, and Babylon are all totally feasible for Score.
All right – enough talk! Time to (yikes) choose…
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Winner: Elvis
Runner-Up: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST DIRECTOR
The Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Runner-Up: Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett, Tár
Runner-Up: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Predicted Winner: Austin Butler, Elvis
Runner-Up: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
BEST ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Predicted Winner: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Margot Robbie, Babylon
BEST ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
The Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Predicted Winner: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s say Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
Predicted Winner: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Runner-Up: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Runner-Up: Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: The Banshees of Inisherin
Runner-Up: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Runner-Up: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
The Nominees: All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
Predicted Winner: RRR
Runner-Up: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
Predicted Winner: Women Talking
Runner-Up: The Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Runner-Up: “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
That equates to these movies achieving these numbers in terms of wins:
3 Wins
Everything Everywhere All at Once
2 Wins
The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, RRR
1 Win
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár, Women Talking
The National Society of Film Critics, composed of approximately 60 reviewers, is considered one of the higher profile groups to bestow yearly best of honors. They did so today and it was a good day for Todd Field’s Tár.
NSFC was enthralled by the psychological profile as it won Best Film in addition to Fields for his screenplay and Cate Blanchett in the title role. In its previous 56 years, the Film recipient here has only matched the Oscar BP nine times. It is worth noting that it’s occurred 4 out of the last 7 years with 2015’s Spotlight, 2016’s Moonlight, 2019’s Parasite, and 2020’s Nomadland. 7 of the past 10 NSFC victors were at least nominated for BP from the Academy. That bodes well for Tár. At this point, it would be pretty shocking if it was left off the list of 10 on Oscar nom morning.
This group also names runners-up. For Best Film, it was Aftersun. Director Charlotte Wells came in first in her race with Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave) in second. I’ve yet to seriously consider Aftersun as a top 10 finisher at the big dance. It’s possible, but perhaps a stretch. Only two of the NSFC winners in the previous decade took Oscar with Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Chloe Zhao (Nomadland).
Blanchett’s trophy is no surprise. The other strong hopeful for Best Actress is Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once. She came in second. It’s worth mentioning that Blanchett won NSFC nine years ago for Blue Jasmine before translating that to her second Oscar. A third could be in the cards.
The lead Actor award went to Colin Farrell for both After Yang and The Banshees of Inisherin. Paul Mescal (Aftersun) was runner-up. Farrell looks assured a spot in the Academy quintet (for Banshees) while Mescal is gunning for a wide open fifth spot. You have to go back to 2016 (Casey Affleck in Manchester by the Sea) to find the previous NSFC/Oscar match.
Our Supporting Actress derby (also pretty wide open) went to the soft frontrunner with Kerry Condon in Banshees. Nina Hoss (Tár) nabbed the second most votes. If there’s an unexpected performer to pop up on nomination morning, it could be Hoss (especially given the uncertainty of her category).
It was smooth sailing for Ke Huy Quan in Supporting Actor as he continued his expected coronation as the season rolls along. The Everything Everywhere All at Once standout beat Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway), who’s a bubble possibility for Oscar.
Polish pic EO is your Best Film Not in the English Language with No Bears (out of Iran) second. The latter was not submitted for the Academy’s consideration. EO also took home an unanticipated win for its Cinematography with Nope as the runner-up.
Finally, Best Nonfiction Film was All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with Descendant second. Both are expected to contend for the Documentary cut at the Oscars.
We are in the heart of awards season, folks! My final prediction for the Golden Globes are coming your way next…
Blogger’s Update (01/11): Considering its meager 1500 screen count and scant buzz, I’m revising my House Party prediction down from $6 million to $3 million.
Warner Bros hopes audiences RSVP to the House Party reboot when it debuts January 13th. Directed by Calmatic (best known for music videos and commercials), Jacob Latimore and Tosin Cole star as best friends who hatch a plan to hold a blowout bash at the estate of LeBron James. The NBA superstar plays himself as do musical celebs like Kid Cudi, Lil Wayne, and Snoop Dogg.
The 1990 original featured hip hop act Kid N’ Play (who appear here) and spawned two sequels. It was a surprise box office success that also drew critical kudos. This was originally slated for an HBO Max only premiere last summer before the studio shifted emphasis to theatrical output.
Rolling out over the long MLK weekend, Party could manage to over perform. There’s a real question which new release will make the most money with A Man Called Otto and Plane as the other contenders. The trio should all fall behind Avatar: The Way of Water and M3GAN. I’ll project this falls short of double digits earnings by a notable margin.
House Party opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Edward Berger’s All Quiet on the Western Front made an unexpected amount of noise when the British Academy of Film and Television Art (BAFTA) announced their shortlists prior to the final nominations on January 19th. The long lists can vary in size and so can the numbers of eventual nominees coming in two weeks.
It’s a little confusing and hard to keep track of, but one thing is certain. World War I epic Quiet is eligible for the most races with 15 followed by The Banshees of Inisherin at 14. The superb performance from the former only helps its recent surge in the Oscar race (where I elevated it to my 10 for BP contenders on Monday).
Not all pictures had good showings from our British colleagues. This is especially true for The Fabelmans (with a shockingly subpar showing) and Women Talking.
Let’s go through each feature length shortlist with some general comments. Predictions for the nominees will come shortly before the 19th when I’ll delve a bit deeper.
Best Film
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Half of these features will make the cut and it’s hard to imagine All Quiet not doing so considering its haul. Same for Banshees would could be a soft frontrunner. It’s also worth noting Everything did just fine. Key pics you won’t find here: Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, and Women Talking.
Outstanding British Film
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Blue Jean
Brian and Charles
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Lady Chatterley’s Lover
Living
The Lost King
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
See How They Run
The Swimmers
The Wonder
Plenty of British titles here that aren’t expected to make a dent with the Academy’s voters. Only three of these hopefuls made Best Film and Banshees should have a leg up on Aftersun (which performed splendidly with BAFTA) and Living.
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
Aftersun
Blue Jean
Donna
Electric Malady
Emily
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Nothing Compares
Rebellion
See How They Run
Wayfinder
This one should be Aftersun all the way considering it’s the only entry vying for the top prize.
Film Not in the English Language
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Bardo
Close
Corsage
Decision to Leave
EO
Holy Spider
The Quiet Girl
RRR
While Saint Omer made the director cut, its miss is notable here. Bardo got in, but popped up nowhere else. Even more surprisingly – same goes for RRR. This should be an All Quiet win.
Documentary
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A Bunch of Amateurs
Fire of Love
The Ghost of Richard Harris
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song
Louis Armstrong’s Black & Blues
McEnroe
Moonage Daydream
Navalny
Like the Academy, Good Night Oppy couldn’t make the shortlist while Descendant is another high profile snub.
Animated Film
The Amazing Maurice
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Lightyear
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
4 of 8 go through. While Pinocchio is out front – don’t sleep on Marcel.
Director
Colm Bairéad, The Quiet Girl
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave
Chinonye Chukwu, Till
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alice Diop, Saint Omer
Sara Dosa, Fire of Love
Todd Field, Tár
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
Marie Kreutzer, Corsage
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Maria Schrader, She Said
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
BAFTA puts up 8 male and 8 female filmmakers on the shortlist before it shrinks to 6 (three of each gender). I’ll have more on who I think gets in later, but how about who didn’t!?!? There’s James Cameron for Avatar (which had a mediocre performance overall). The giant shocker was not seeing Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans. And this one feels like it could have Oscar implications. I’ve had him listed #1 in Director for months. That placement is in serious jeopardy. I think he still gets makes the Academy’s quintet, but I suspect his #1 status will take a hit when I update in a couple of days.
Leading Actress
Naomi Ackie, Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Jessica Chastain, The Good Nurse
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
It’s a bit unexpected seeing Ackie and Chastain over some picks BAFTA might’ve gone for like Vicky Krieps in Corsage and Florence Pugh in The Wonder. Same goes (sort of) for Olivia Colman in Empire of Light. However, it’s worth pointing out that BAFTA also ignored her for The Father and The Lost Daughter (the Academy didn’t). And you won’t see Babylon‘s Margot Robbie in the mix either.
Leading Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Harris Dickinson, Triangle of Sadness
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Daniel Kaluuya, Nope
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daryl McCormack, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
I have a feeling the six eventual nominees may not include Dickinson, Kaluuya, Kammerer, and McCormack but that’s not a final call. Notable names out include Diego Calva (Babylon), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu), Hugh Jackman (The Son, which was blanked) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection).
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Lashana Lynch, The Woman King
Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Emma Thompson, Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Aimee Lou Wood, Living
Ms. Thompson scored an unanticipated double nod thanks to this one as this 2022 hard to figure out Supporting Actress derby stayed that way. Like the Globes, no Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy from Women Talking.
Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Hanks, Elvis
Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front
Micheal Ward, Empire of Light
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Whishaw being the only acting nominee for Women Talking kinda came out of nowhere. So did familiar faces like Hanks and Harrelson over either of the Fabelmans contenders – Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch. Pitt at last lands Babylon an above the line nom.
Original Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
The Menu
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Dare I say there’s no real surprises in this race.
Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Quiet Girl
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
The Wonder
This could’ve been where White Noise got a lone nod, but nope. Considering the so-so performance of Women Talking, I wouldn’t automatically think it wins. But… what does?
***For the rest of these races, I’m listing just the shortlisted pics. Forecasted nominees are coming soon enough! I will say The Fabelmans is MIA in places where it was expected to be (especially Cinematography and Score).
Casting
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Living
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Athena
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Costume Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Corsage
Elvis
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
Editing
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Decision to Leave
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Moonage Daydream
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Make Up & Hair
All Quiet on the Western Front
Amsterdam
Babylon
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
Emancipation
Roald Dahl’s Matilda the Musical
The Whale
Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Women Talking
The Wonder
Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Special Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Jurassic World: Dominion
Top Gun: Maverick
Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Tár
Thirteen Lives
Top Gun: Maverick
Keep an eye out for BAFTA final predictions from these shortlists and the same for the Golden Globes and Critics Choice!
Blogger’s Update (01/09): Based on Otto‘s impressive performance on just over 600 screens the previous weekend, I am revising my estimate considerably up from $11.3 million $15.9 million for the four-day MLK haul.
One of the most beloved Everyman actors is a grumpy man in A Man Called Otto, opening wide on January 13th. Tom Hanks is the title character in this remake of the 2015 Swedish film which was adapted from a 2012 Fredrik Backman novel. Marc Forster directs with a supporting cast including Mariana Treviño, Rachel Keller, Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, Cameron Britton, and Mike Birbiglia.
Reviews are fairly decent with a current 66% Rotten Tomatoes score. Hanks is obviously a big name though he’s not the box office draw he once was. He did just recently appear in the summer hit Elvis. However, recent starring roles have either been streaming debuts (Greyhound, Finch) or under performers (News of the World).
Pics catering to adults have generally suffered at multiplexes lately. What might help is that the book was a huge bestseller. That said, even with a four-day MLK rollout, I question whether this gets to double digits. I’m giving it the benefit of the doubt. Otto does expand to over 600 venues on January 6th. Depending on how it rolls out this weekend, it could change the forecast below.
A Man Called Otto opening weekend prediction: $15.9 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Plane lands in theaters on January 13th as Lionsgate hopes it takes off with action fans over the long MLK weekend. From French filmmaker Jean-François Richet, Gerard Butler stars as a pilot stranded in dangerous territory. Costars include Mike Colter, Yoson An, and Tony Goldwyn. The screenplay was sold as The Plane until the powers that be jettisoned that silly “the”.
Our simplistically titled pic comes with a reported $50 million price tag. That’s not huge, but it will likely struggle to make it back (at least on the domestic front). The mid-January frame has seen its share of medium size budgeted genre fare. Potential comps include 2013’s The Last Stand with its $7.2 million start, Sleepless from 2017 at $9.7 million, and 2018’s Proud Mary with $11.7 million. There’s also The Commuter from five years back with $15.7 million and that’s probably an unreachable ceiling.
We also have Butler comps to ponder. In 2018, Den of Thieves also debuted in January to $15.2 million while Hunter Killer managed just $6.6 million that autumn. 2021’s Copshop was a dud with $2.3 million out of the gate, but it arrived during the COVID slowdown.
Due to the holiday, we’re estimating a four-day take. My hunch is that many moviegoers will standby to view it at home. It could manage double digits though I’ll say it falls below that figure and closer to Killer than Thieves.
Plane opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
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