Year: 2022

Oscars 2021: The Case of Licorice Pizza

We’ve reached our seventh movie for my Case Of posts focused on the ten Best Picture hopefuls and it brings us to Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. If you missed my earlier ones, you can find them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

Oscars 2021: The Case of Don’t Look Up

Oscars 2021: The Case of Drive My Car

Oscars 2021: The Case of Dune

Oscars 2021: The Case of King Richard

The Case for Licorice Pizza:

Between his producing credits, direction, and screenplays – Anderson had already received 8 Oscar nominations without a victory (2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2017’s Phantom Thread were up for BP). He adds three more with Pizza for Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. The Academy might feel that it’s time to honor one of the most acclaimed filmmakers of the past quarter century.

The Case Against Licorice Pizza:

Note that I only mentioned three overall nods and that ties the lowest of the 10 contenders along with CODA. This failed to nab mentions in other key categories – many thought Alana Haim could sneak in for Actress and lots of prognosticators (including myself) had Bradley Cooper getting a Supporting Actor nomination. Furthermore, its exclusion in Editing is notable (historically no BP winners get the big prize without competing in that race).

The Verdict:

The best hope for Pizza to get a piece of the Oscar pie is in Original Screenplay where it appears to be in a fierce competition with Belfast. Don’t expect a BP delivery.

My Case Of posts will continue with Nightmare Alley…

Oscars 2021: The Case of King Richard

Reinaldo Marcus Green’s King Richard is the next film to be served up in my Case Of posts focused on 2021’s Best Picture nominees. For my takes on the other five entries thus far, you can peruse them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

Oscars 2021: The Case of Don’t Look Up

Oscars 2021: The Case of Drive My Car

Oscars 2021: The Case of Dune

The Case for King Richard: 

The uplifting tale of Richard Williams (Will Smith) and his tutelage of Venus and Serena hit all its expected categories on nomination morning: Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress (Aunjanue Ellis), Original Screenplay, Editing, and Original Song (courtesy of Beyonce). It’s an easy movie to like and if Academy voters are in feel good mode, they could court this one for attention.

The Case Against King Richard:

There’s other feel good choices with Belfast and CODA. Green showing up in Best Director would have been an indicator of strength, but it didn’t materialize. Richard also struggled at the box office (it simultaneously premiered on HBO Max). The best opportunity it has for a win is with Smith, who might make it to the podium in Actor on his third try.

The Verdict

Smith definitely has the strongest chance to feel the Richard love. It’s a long shot for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Licorice Pizza…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Dune

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune brings us to the halfway point of my ten Case Of posts for the Best Picture contenders. If you missed the first four, you can access them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

Oscars 2021: The Case of Don’t Look Up

Oscars 2021: The Case of Drive My Car

The Case for Dune:

If the Academy’s voters are looking to honor the nominee that garnered the highest box office returns, they can do so here as the sci-fi epic made $107 million domestically while being simultaneously available on HBO Max. Dune stands as the second most nominated film of 2021 with 10 mentions including Adapted Screenplay and a number of tech nods that it’s expected to win.

The Case Against Dune:

Many anticipated that this would garner the most mentions on Oscar nomination morning, but it fell short by two to The Power of the Dog. In doing so, Dune missed a major race when Villeneuve surprisingly failed to make the director cut. Quite simply, it’s hard to imagine this taking the big prize without its filmmaker being acknowledged.

The Verdict:

Dune should have no trouble winning some Oscars next month. Sound and Visual Effects are likely in the bag and Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design are all feasible. Picture seems out of reach and voters will have another chance to honor it (and its director) with the forthcoming sequel.

My Case Of posts will continue with King Richard…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Drive My Car

Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three hour Japanese drama Drive My Car is the next Case Of post covering the 10 Best Picture nominees for this year’s Academy Awards. If you didn’t catch the first three, they’re right here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

Oscars 2021: The Case of Don’t Look Up

The Case for Drive My Car:

Since premiering at the Cannes Film Festival last summer where it won Best Screenplay, Hamaguchi’s import is one of the critical darlings of 2021. It holds the best Rotten Tomatoes score of the bunch at 98%. Car performed better than expected with a total of four nods: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film,.

The Case Against Drive My Car

The film’s inclusion into the BP derby was a question mark going into nomination morning. While it hopes to become the second non-English language pic to win the big prize (two years after Parasite), its real possibility for a victory lies with the international race.

The Verdict

Drive My Car is an easy pick to take International Feature Film and anything else being called would constitute a major upset. However, do not expect the raves to put it in gear for one in Best Picture.

My Case Of posts will continue with Dune…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Don’t Look Up

My Case Of posts for the 10 Best Picture nominees is down to our third entry and that’s Adam McKay’s end of the world black comedy Don’t Look Up. If you missed the first two covering Belfast and CODA, you can find them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

The Case for Don’t Look Up: 

The Netflix property has probably received more social media chatter and buzz than any of the other hopefuls (with the possible exception of Dune). The streaming numbers were said to be massive so it is certainly one of the most widely seen contenders. For McKay, it marks his third BP nominee in a row behind 2015’s The Big Short and 2018’s Vice. 

The Case Against Don’t Look Up:

That aforementioned chatter was definitely not all positive. Reviews were mixed and Up‘s 56% Rotten Tomatoes score is easily the worst of the lot (the next lowest is Nightmare Alley at 80%). While some viewers sang its praises, plenty more derided it. This also missed key races like Director and any of the actors involved (Leonardo DiCaprio was likely close but no cigar in Actor).

The Verdict:

Netflix could be well on its way to its inaugural BP statue and that would be for The Power of the Dog. Their other hopeful is too divisive to have a shot and its total of four nominations is on the low end of the scale.

My Case Of posts will continue with Drive My Car…

Oscars 2021: The Case of CODA

My Case Of posts covering the ten nominees for Best Picture comes to my second entry and it’s for Sian Heder’s CODA. If you missed my first write-up on Belfast, it’s right here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

The Case for CODA

When it premiered at Sundance all the way back in January 2021, CODA immediately made a splash and found itself in the midst of a bidding war (won by Apple TV). At that festival, it won the U.S. Grand Jury Prize and U.S. Dramatic Audience Award. Its momentum as a potential Oscar contender continued to pick up when it premiered on streaming over the summer. Of the ten BP hopefuls, it boasts the second highest Rotten Tomatoes score with 96% (behind only Drive My Car at 98%). With a meager budget of $10 million, it’s the kind of feel good story that voters could fall for.

The Cast Against CODA

Is it too small for the Academy to bestow its highest honor? Probably. CODA tied Licorice Pizza with the least amount of nods among the BP contenders at three. The only other mentions are for Troy Kotsur in Supporting Actor and Adapted Screenplay. For CODA to really have a chance, you’d think it would have nabbed Director or inclusions for Kotsur’s cast mates Emilia Jones and Marlee Matlin.

The Verdict

CODA‘s sturdiness in remaining a force throughout 2021 is laudable. However, it’s very much of a long shot for BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Don’t Look Up…

Oscars 2021: The Case of Belfast

Now that the nominations for 94th Academy Awards are out, I’m moving to the next phase of speculation. Welcome to my “Case Of” posts where I dive deeper into the contenders for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting categories.

Here’s how it works. Over the next few weeks before the March 27th ceremony airs, I’m doing individualized entries for the 35 hopefuls in the aforementioned races. With each one, I’ll make the best case for the movie or person winning as well as the case against them and a final verdict as I see it now.

It starts with the 10 BP nominees (alphabetically) before switching up between Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, and Supporting Actor. We begin with Kenneth Branagh’s Belfast:

The Case for Belfast

For several weeks after its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival, the Irish set coming of age tale and passion project from Branagh appeared to be out front in the BP derby. If Academy voters go with the feel good pic of the ten contenders, this could certainly come out on top (though it’s got competition with CODA and King Richard). Belfast had a decent showing on Tuesday morning with 7 nominations including key races like Director, Original Screenplay, and two supporting mentions for Judi Dench (surprisingly making the cut over costar Caitriona Balfe) and Ciaran Hinds.

The Case Against Belfast

The early buzz has waned a bit and much of that is due to The Power of the Dog. The Netflix drama amassed a better than expected 12 nods and is rightfully being called the frontrunner. Power has already shown early precursor love by winning Best Drama at the Golden Globes. And then there’s the categories where Belfast missed – Editing, Cinematography, and Production Design. This indicates that several Academy branches weren’t bowled over by it. Editing, in particular, is a major miss. It’s extremely rare for a BP winner not to make the final five for that one.

The Verdict

There’s certainly a path for Belfast to take the top prize and it likely sits at #2 behind Dog. However, I would say Dog is a heavy favorite and it might be hard for anything to overcome it.

My Case Of posts will continue with CODA…

Oscar Predictions: Marry Me

Jennifer Lopez is back in rom com territory tomorrow with Marry Me, which debuts in theaters and Peacock streaming. It’s hoping to be a midsize Valentine’s Day frame hit. The reviews are in and they’re not half bad with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 60%.

You’d be correct in wondering why this material warrants an Oscar post. This is due to the soundtrack in which the star contributes numerous tracks. Some singles are already out such as “Pa’ Ti + Lonely” (a duet with her costar Maluma) and “On My Way”.

Universal could focus on either of them or other ditties for an Original Song push. If Lopez does manage to find herself in the mix, it would mark her first Academy nod. As you may recall, J-Lo was heavily favored to land a Supporting Actress mention two years ago for Hustlers and her omission was a surprise. There’s plenty of songs to come in the next year, but it stands to reason that she’ll be campaigned for her musical contributions. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Dog Box Office Prediction

After a lengthy hiatus from starring roles, Channing Tatum is back in theaters with Dog on February 18th. He plays a U.S. army ranger tasked with bringing a military pooch to his handler’s funeral. The dramedy also marks Tatum’s debut behind the camera (he co-directs with Reid Carolin). Jane Adams, Kevin Nash, Q’Orianka Kilcher, Ethan Suplee, Emmy Raver-Lampman, and Bill Burr make up the supporting cast.

As mentioned, Tatum’s been on a bit of a hiatus lately. His last headlining role was all the way back in 2017 with Logan Lucky (he did turn up in Free Guy and will be seen next month alongside Sandra Bullock and Brad Pitt in The Lost City).

Looking at potential canine comps, A Dog’s Purpose back in 2017 took in $18 million out of the gate. A Dog’s Way Home made $11 million for its start two years later. One caveat – both were based on novels whereas this Dog is an original concept.

Arriving a year after its COVID delay, Dog will hope to attract a female crowd (thanks to Tatum) and those who just generally like the word “dog” in a film’s title. Over the four-day President’s Day frame, there’s a decent chance this could over perform and possibly get to $20 million (or it could flame out with $10 million). I’m thinking $12-$15 million is most likely.

Dog opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Uncharted prediction, click here:

Uncharted Box Office Prediction

Uncharted Box Office Prediction

A popular series of PlayStation games comes to life when Uncharted opens on February 18th. The adventures tale from Zombieland and Venom director Ruben Fleischer features Tom Holland and Mark Wahlberg headlining. Costars include Sophia Ali, Tati Gabrielle, and Antonio Banderas.

Budgeted at a reported $120 million, this should pretty easily top the charts over the long President’s Day weekend. Per usual, it’s undergone a few release date changes in the pandemic era. This time around, the pushback may have helped.

Arriving just two months after Holland’s work as Spider-Man in No Way Home got the box office to unprecedented COVID time levels, audiences may wish to check out his latest potential blockbuster. It doesn’t hurt that gamers could show up too (thought it’s worth mentioning that video game adaptations have a troubled history at multiplexes).

The range for Uncharted is wide. A best case scenario for scenario could be in the $50 million range from Friday to Monday. The floor could be about half of that. I’ll say low to mid 30s is where this ends up.

Uncharted opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Dog prediction, click here:

Dog Box Office Prediction