I fear that Haley (Kaya Scodelario) will have trouble running into her school’s mascot after the events that transpire in Crawl. She’s a college student attending the University of Florida and she gets the literal treatment to gator chomps. When a Category 5 Hurricane is poised to make landfall, Haley goes searching for searching for her dad Dave (Barry Pepper). Flashbacks show him pushing juvenile Haley hard in the sport of swimming. Their relationship is strained, though that nautical training sure comes in handy here.
When she finds him and their dog Sugar, he’s trapped in the old family home and there’s not one, but two alligators skulking around while the rain pounds away. The pair must use their survival skills to battle all the elements and try to turn their tormentors into boots or luggage (as the former California Governor said in the Arnold not so classic Eraser).
Crawl is short (87 minutes), unambitious, and straightforward. Those adjectives will apply to this review. It’s certainly watchable and clips right along. The gators look pretty menacing and the underwater camerawork is stellar. Director Alexandre Aja has covered this stuff before in Piranha 3D. This is primarily a two person show with Scodelario and Pepper, though you may find yourself rooting hardest for Sugar to pull through. His bark occasionally assists in avoiding the creatures bites.
Even with the brisk running time, the occasional callbacks to the father/daughter dynamic seems tacked on. After all, the exposition of Dave using coaching terms to get Haley to do the breaststroke isn’t exactly Quint recounting the events of the USS Indianapolis. And this Jaws knockoff is a standard and sometimes effective diversion.
There are plentiful amounts of F bombs thrown out in Dolemite Is My Name. They are the kind that you associated with Eddie Murphy years ago. The F no longer stands for the family fare he starred in that bombed at the box office. Think Pluto Nash. Or Meet Dave. Or Imagine That. No, this belongs in a small sub genre of pictures where some of the players here have had involvement before. Dolemite tells the true story of a man breaking into the movie business with wide eyed spirit and contagious tenacity. The quality of the material produced is secondary.
Murphy is Rudy Ray Moore, who’s working at a record shop in L.A. when we begin. He has dreams of stardom, but the general consensus is that his time has passed. Rudy just won’t let that happen as he develops a comic persona that is one part rhyming (he ended up being a huge influence in the hip hop community), one part glorious 70s outfits of the era, and all parts raunchy as hell.
He achieves success in the underground comedy world where his records sell, but a screening of the Billy Wilder pic The Front Page gives him another idea. Rudy doesn’t see humorous material on the screen for the black audience and he’s going to be the one to give it to them. Obtaining financing (even at the height of the blaxploitation genre) is next to impossible so he’s creative in his methods.
Surrounding Rudy is a colorful (especially the clothes) and eclectic group of collaborators who aren’t entirely sure what they’ve gotten themselves into. They include actor D’Urville Martin (Wesley Snipes, having a ball). He never fails to remind others that he had a big part in Rosemary’s Baby and only joins the picture when he’s allowed to direct. Keegan-Michael Key is the screenwriter who thinks he’s making the kind of serious drama he writes for the stage. When kung fu and set shattering sex scenes take precedence, that notion is dispelled. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a scene stealer as Lady Reed, Rudy’s stand-up partner plucked out of a Southern bar.
Screenwriters Larry Karaszewski and Scott Alexander have travelled this road before with Tim Burton’s Ed Wood. Murphy gave one of his finest performances 20 years ago in Bowfinger, where his costar Steve Martin was a director with unbridled and naive enthusiasm. The Disaster Artist with James Franco mined similar territory. So while Dolemite does feel familiar in its beats, it has its own brand of passion for its unlikely star.
We have the headliner to thank for it. This is Live From Netflix and is indeed Eddie Murphy’s show. The performer seems more inspired than he has in some time. It might help if you’re a Dolemite devotee (Murphy and many of the cast members are). Yet this is an entertaining watch either way as we watch a legend in his element.
Once looked at as a potential Oscar contender, buzz for Harriet has significantly dwindled since its debut at the Toronto Film Festival back in September. I suspect this autobiographical tale of abolitionist Harriet Tubman will suffer at the box office as a result. Widows actress Cynthia Erivo stars in the title role with a supporting cast including Leslie Odom Jr., Joe Alwyn, and Janelle Monae. Kasi Lemmons directs.
Its premiere in Canada yielded mixed reviews and it currently stands at a middling 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. Best Picture seems like a lost cause and Erivo (once looked at as a sure fire contender) may have a tough time making the cut for Best Actress.
Based on those factors, I foresee Harriet struggling to hit double digits for its start.
Harriet opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
My latest round of Oscar predictions brings the following developments:
Little Women has held industry screenings and greatly improved its chances at multiple nominations. It’s back in my predicted ten Best Picture contenders and that’s bad news for Ford v Ferrari.
Speaking of Ferrari, it was announced that Christian Bale will contend for Best Actor and not supporting, which is where I’ve had him predicted for weeks. This designation significantly decreases his shot and I have him ranked in 8th. The benefactor in Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe for The Lighthouse.
Back to Little Women. The standout is said to be Florence Pugh, so I now have her down for Supporting Actress, knocking out Shuzhen Zhou in The Farewell.
Speaking of The Farewell, my fifth spot in Actress continues to change as that picture’s Awkwafina slides to sixth with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) in.
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood nabs the #1 slot in Picture over The Irishman. It’s a razor thin margin.
Let’s get to it!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Previous Ranking: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
4. Parasite (PR: 3)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
6. 1917 (PR: 5)
7. Bombshell (PR: 9)
8. The Two Popes (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 12)
10. Joker (PR: 10)
Other Possibilities:
11. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
12. The Farewell (PR: 11)
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 13)
14. Waves (PR: 14)
15. Richard Jewell (PR: 15)
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
3. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite (PR: 2)
4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (PR: 4)
5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 6)
8. Jay Roach, Bombshell (PR: 10)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (PR: 2)
3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (PR: 3)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 5)
5. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (PR: 6)
7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (PR: 7)
8. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
9. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 8)
10. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (PR: 1)
2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (PR: 2)
3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (PR: 3)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (PR: 4)
5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (PR: 7)
8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (PR: 8)
9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (PR: 9)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Frankie (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen and Slim
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (PR: 1)
2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (PR: 3)
3. Florence Pugh, Little Women (PR: 8)
4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (PR: 2)
5. Annette Bening, The Report (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Shuzhen Zhou, The Farewell (PR: 5)
7. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PR: 6)
9. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
10. Thomasin McKenzie, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, Little Women
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. Al Pacino, The Irishman (PR: 2)
3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 3)
5. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (PR: 8)
8. John Lithgow, Bombshell (PR: 9)
9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (PR: 10)
10. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (moved to lead)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 6)
4. The Two Popes (PR: 3)
5. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker (PR: 5)
7. Just Mercy (PR: 7)
8. Judy (PR: 8)
9. Downton Abbey (PR: 9)
10. Richard Jewell (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Marriage Story (PR: 1)
3. Parasite (PR: 3)
4. The Farewell (PR: 4)
5. Bombshell (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Pain and Glory (PR: 8)
7. Waves (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 7)
9. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 10)
10. Knives Out (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Booksmart
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Predicted Nominees:
1. Parasite (PR: 1)
2. Pain and Glory (PR: 2)
3. Les Miserables (PR: 4)
4. Those Who Remained (PR: 6)
5. Monos (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Atlantics (PR: 3)
7. Beanpole (PR: 7)
8. And Then We Danced (PR: 8)
9. A White, White Day (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Traitor (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Papicha
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Toy Story 4 (PR: 1)
2. Frozen II (PR: 2)
3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (PR: 3)
4. Weathering with You (PR: 5)
5. I Lost My Body (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Missing Link (PR: 4)
7. Abominable (PR: 7)
8. Funan (PR: 9)
9. Okko’s Inn (PR: 10)
10. Klaus (PR: 8)
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. American Factory (PR: 2)
2. Apollo 11 (PR: 1)
3. One Child Nation (PR: 4)
4. The Cave (PR: 5)
5. Maiden (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Biggest Little Farm (PR: 6)
7. Diego Maradona (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Knock Down the House (PR: 10)
9. The Edge of Democracy (PR: 7)
10. Western Stars (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aquarela
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story By Martin Scorsese
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 2)
2. 1917 (PR: 1)
3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 3)
4. A Hidden Life (PR: Not Ranked)
5. The Lighthouse (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
7. Joker (PR: 9)
8. Parasite (PR: 4)
9. Portrait of a Lady on Fire (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Marriage Story
Jojo Rabbit
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
2. Little Women (PR: 3)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Downton Abbey (PR: 1)
5. Rocketman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Judy (PR: 6)
8. 1917 (PR: 9)
9. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Aladdin
Jojo Rabbit
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Irishman (PR: 1)
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 2)
3. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 4)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 5)
5. 1917 (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 7)
8. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 9)
9. Avengers: Endgame (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Ad Astra
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bombshell (PR: 2)
2. The Irishman (PR: 1)
3. Dolemite Is My Name (PR: 4)
4. Judy (PR: 3)
5. Joker (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 9)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 7)
8. The Aeronauts (PR: 8)
9. Little Women (PR: 5)
10. Cats (PR: 10)
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Predicted Nominees:
1. 1917 (PR: 1
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
3. Little Women (PR: 3)
4. Marriage Story (PR: 4)
5. A Hidden Life (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 5)
8. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 7)
9. Joker (PR: 9)
10. Ad Astra
Dropped Out:
Waves
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Into the Unknown” from Frozen II (PR: 1)
2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from Rocketman (PR: 2)
3. “Beautiful Ghosts” from Cats (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Stand Up” from Harriet (PR: 3)
5. “Spirit” from The Lion King (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 6)
7. “Speechless” from Aladdin (PR: 5)
8. “The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy” from Toy Story 4 (PR: 4)
9. “One Little Soldier” from Bombshell (PR: 8)
10. “Daily Battles” from Motherless Brooklyn (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
”Together From Afar” from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees:
1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 1)
2. The Irishman (PR: 4)
3. Little Women (PR: 5)
4. 1917 (PR: 2)
5. Jojo Rabbit (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Parasite (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Cats (PR: 6)
8. Downton Abbey (PR: 10)
9. The Aeronauts (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Ford v Ferrari
Aladdin
BEST SOUND EDITING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 2)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 1)
4. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 8)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Irishman (PR: 7)
7. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 5)
8. Rocketman (PR: 4)
9. Cats (PR: 9)
10. Us (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST SOUND MIXING
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ford v Ferrari (PR: 1)
2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 3)
3. 1917 (PR: 2)
4. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 6)
5. Ad Astra (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rocketman (PR: 4)
7. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (PR: 9)
8. The Irishman (PR: 8)
9. Cats (PR: 7)
10. Joker (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lion King
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees:
1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (PR: 2)
2. Avengers: Endgame (PR: 3)
3. The Irishman (PR: 1)
4. The Lion King (PR: 4)
5. Alita: Battle Angel (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Aeronauts (PR: 6)
7. Ad Astra (PR: 8)
8. Gemini Man (PR: 7)
9. 1917 (PR: 9)
10. Dumbo (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Godzilla: King of the Monsters
And that equates to the following films getting the following number of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Irishman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
8 Nominations
1917, Marriage Story
7 Nominations
Little Women
5 Nominations
Bombshell
4 Nominations
Parasite, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, The Two Popes
3 Nominations
Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker
2 Nominations
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Ad Astra, Avengers: Endgame, Dolemite Is My Name, Frozen II, A Hidden Life, Judy, The Lighthouse, The Lion King, Rocketman
1 Nomination
Alita: Battle Angel, American Factory, Apollo 11, Cats, The Cave, Clemency, Downton Abbey, The Farewell, Harriet, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, Hustlers, I Lost My Body, Les Miserables, Maiden, Monos, One Child Nation, Pain and Glory, The Report, Those Who Remained, Toy Story 4, Weathering with You
Something struck me as I was preparing my weekly Oscar predictions that will be up on the blog later today. At this late October date in 2018, Bohemian Rhapsody was about to open. Reviews had trickled out and advance word of mouth was quite mixed. The Freddie Mercury biopic ended up at just 61% on Rotten Tomatoes. Yet it turned out to be a box office phenomenon with a $51 million debut and $216 eventual domestic gross.
Looking over my weekly projections from a year ago, Rhapsody wasn’t even in my top 25 possibilities for Best Picture. And Rami Malek was listed at #6 in Best Actor, just on the outside looking in. He ended up winning. It also emerged victorious in Editing, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. The only race in which it was nominated for and didn’t win was Picture. Bohemian Rhapsody, despite its middling critical reaction, was bestowed with four gold statues and that’s more than any other movie last year.
This brings us to Rocketman. The Elton John biopic premiered in May at the Cannes Film Festival just prior to its summer rollout. Reviews were stronger (89% on RT). However, while it was a solid performer financially at $96 million, those aren’t rhapsodic numbers. Maybe it came out too early in the year because Oscar prognosticators (including me) are not seeing it as much of a factor in the awards derby.
Still I can’t help but wonder if we’re shortchanging it considering the Academy love for Bohemian. I currently only have Rocketman slated for nods in both Sound races and Original Song (the Elton and Taron Egerton duet “(Im Gonna) Love Me Again”).
I don’t think it has much of a chance at the moment to break into the Best Picture race (it’s not in my top 15). Taron Egerton is at #7 (even behind Malek at this point a year ago) on my chart. I do ponder, though, whether there’s an outside shot that Rocketman could still be standing as the dust settles.
It’s been just over 150 years since Louisa May Alcott’s novel was published and 25 years since the last cinematic version to garner awards attention has been released. Now Greta Gerwig takes her turn adapting the classic Little Women for the big screen. Somewhat surprisingly, the pic skipped this fall’s festival circuit, but its first industry screenings were held this week.
The verdict? Advance word of mouth indicate it’s a winner, but its inclusion in Best Picture remains on the bubble. Same can be said for Director. Women comes two years after Gerwig broke out with Oscar voters for Lady Bird. She was nominated for her work behind the camera and for Original Screenplay. This time around, her inclusion in Adapted Screenplay seems feasible in a field that is a tad less crowded than Original.
A big question mark has been which actors from the ensemble cast will emerge as contenders. Saoirse Ronan (Gerwig’s Best Actress nominated Bird star) appears likely to get a nod for lead here. For Supporting Actress, voters have Florence Pugh, Meryl Streep, Laura Dern, and Emma Watson to choose from. Buzz strongly suggests Pugh is the most probable and deserving of the quartet. As for Dern, she’s already headed for a nomination for Marriage Story. Streep, who can never be totally counted out, appears destined to come up short (as is the case with her work in The Laundromat). The legend may have to be content with her 21 previous nominations and three victories. Timothee Chalamet is said to be a standout here, but Supporting Actor is extremely packed already and he’ll probably find himself on the outside looking in.
Down ballot nods for Production and Costume Design are near certainties and Alexandre Desplat’s score is a strong contender as well. Bottom line: Little Women could find itself in the awards mix in a major way. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Entertainment Studios is hoping that family audiences warm to their animated comedy Arctic Dogs next weekend. Budgeted at around $50 million, it risks being a costly flop. From director Aaron Woodley, Dogs voice cast includes Jeremy Renner (who’s been experiencing bad publicity involved with his personal life), Heidi Klum, James Franco, John Cleese, Omar Sy, Michael Madsen, Laurie Holden, Anjelica Huston, and Alec Baldwin (pulling double duty with new releases along with Motherless Brooklyn).
The pic marks the first animated effort from the relatively new studio, which has only found success with its 47 Meters Down shark tales. I suspect they won’t find much profitability with these talking animals.
Double digits seems like an impossibility here and it could struggle to reach $5 million.
Arctic Dogs opening weekend prediction: $4.5 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (10/24): It’s been revealed today that the film is only slated for approximately 1,250 screens next weekend. Therefore, my estimate is dropping from $5.3 million to $3.2 million.
Nearly 20 years following his directorial debut Keeping the Faith, Edward Norton is back behind the camera with Motherless Brooklyn. The 1950s set pic casts Norton as a detective with Tourette’s syndrome in the crime drama. Costars include Bruce Willis, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Bobby Cannavale, Cherry Jones, Alec Baldwin, and Willem Dafoe.
Once looked at as a potential awards contender, Brooklyn was met with a mixed reaction following its premiere at the Telluride Film Festival. The Rotten Tomatoes score currently is at 61%. Running nearly two and a half hours, the film hopes to bring in adult moviegoers looking for mature material.
That is unlikely to occur due to its lack of Oscar buzz among other titles that have it. I believe the Warner Bros release will struggle in the mid single digits for a forgettable start.
Motherless Brooklyn opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my Terminator: Dark Fate prediction, click here:
Arnold Schwarzenegger is back for the fifth time in his signature role with Terminator: Dark Fate next weekend. This time around, there’s some other franchise favorites who’ve gone unseen since 1991’s landmark Terminator 2: Judgment Day. James Cameron shares story credit in what’s being called a direct sequel to the first follow up from 28 years ago (Fate hits theaters just over 35 years after the original). That means you shouldn’t have to keep up with the three subsequent series entries. Also returning are Linda Hamilton as Sarah Connor and Edward Furlong as John Connor (a role that’s since been filled by Nick Stahl, Christian Bale, and Jason Clarke). Tim Miller, maker of Deadpool, directs with a supporting cast including Mackenzie Davis, Natalia Reyes, and Gabriel Luna.
Early word of mouth suggests this might be the most solid Terminator flick since 1991 (even though that’s not really saying a whole lot). The franchise hit a low point just over four years ago with Genisys. It was the only sequel not to reach $100 million domestically with at $89 million overall and reviews and audience reaction were poor. The inclusion of some favorites should help some, but this could still suffer from franchise fatigue that we’ve witnessed several times already in 2019.
Using comps for a debut is a little tricky as this is the first sequel not to open on a holiday weekend. Judgment, 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines, and Genisys all premiered over Independence Day frames. 2009’s Terminator: Salvation rolled out over Memorial Day. For the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of their long weekends, Machines holds the record with $44 million. I don’t believe Fate gets there. The low mark is Genisys with $27 million. I don’t think this falls that low.
My hunch is that mid to high 30s is the likeliest scenario for the Governator and his familiar friends.
Terminator: Dark Fate opening weekend prediction: $38.1 million
For my Motherless Brooklyn prediction, click here:
The end of October at the box office looks to be a rather quiet one as holdovers should dominate. There are three newcomers to consider: techie horror pic Countdown, action thriller Black and Blue, and long delayed historical drama The Current War. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Let’s get Current out of the way first, shall we? Theater count is still uncertain and that might change my estimate, but my measly $1.7 million prediction leaves the former Weinstein Company property well outside of the top five.
Same goes for Blue with my $4.8 million projection as I don’t see much buzz for it either. Countdown should have no trouble being the largest grossing newcomer, but my barely double digits forecast has it rounding out the top five.
I whiffed on predicting that Joker would hold onto the top position for the third frame in a row over Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. While Disney claimed the #1 spot, it did so in an unimpressive fashion (more on that below). I do think Evil and Joker will be closer this weekend, but I’ll give Angelina a slight edge over Joaquin this time around.
Zombieland should stay third with The Addams Family in fourth. Due to the upcoming Halloween frame, the latter may experience the smallest decline of the bunch.
And with that, my vision of the weekend ahead:
1. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
Predicted Gross: $20.4 million
2. Joker
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Zombieland: Double Tap
Predicted Gross: $13.8 million
4. The Addams Family
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million
5. Countdown
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
Box Office Results (October 18-20)
Disney’s streak of live action renderings of their animated catalog topping the charts didn’t end this weekend as Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was first with results that weren’t magical. It grossed $36.9 million and while that did exceed my $32.3 million prediction, that’s way under the $69 million achieved by its 2014 predecessor.
Joker slipped to second and lost more volume than I anticipated with $29.2 million compared to my $34.2 million forecast. It’s up to an astonishing $247 million and is already #9 on the list of biggest R rated earners.
Zombieland: Double Tap matched most expectations in third with $26.8 million, shooting past my $23.7 million projection. That’s a slight improvement over the near $25 million that its 2009 predecessor made, but not really when accounting for inflation.
The Addams Family was fourth with $16.3 million (I said $18.4 million) for a two-week tally of $57 million.
Will Smith’s flop Gemini Man was fifth and tumbled nearly 60% in its sophomore frame to $8.3 million, just below my $9.4 million take. Total is $36 million.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 