Blogger’s Note (09/05/18): I am revising my estimate up from $38.4 million to $45.4 million
The Conjuring Cinematic Universe rolls along when The Nun debuts next weekend. The fifth entry in the highly successful Warner Bros horror franchise is a prequel to all four previous pictures. Our title character was first glimpsed at in 2016’s The Conjuring 2. Corin Hardy directs a cast that includes Demian Bichir, Taissa Farmiga (sister of Conjuring star Vera), Jonas Bloquet, and Bonnie Aarons.
Just a couple of weeks back, The Nun received some unexpected publicity when YouTube pulled one of its trailers off the site due to its frightening jump scares. If anything, that notoriety could help peak the curiosity of moviegoers. Not that it necessarily needs it. The opening weekend grosses of this series have been remarkably consistent. Here’s the rundown:
The Conjuring – $41.8 million
Annabelle – $37.1 million
The Conjuring 2 – $40.4 million
Annabelle: Creation – $35 million
I don’t see any compelling reason why The Nun would change that range. You could say it seems pretty (ahem) black and white to me. I’ll predict this scary sister act hits high 30s.
The summer box office season officially draws to a close this Labor Day weekend and there’s five new releases to consider. They are the Oscar Isaac/Ben Kingsley Nazi hunting drama Operation Finale, John Cho’s computer based thriller Searching, family sci-fi tale Kin, Gothic horror tale The Little Stranger and Mexican import Ya Veremos. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I don’t have any of them breaking the $10 million mark for the four-day holiday weekend. I have Finale faring the best, mostly due to the fact that it’s slated to open on about 700 more screens than the critically hailed Searching.
My $3.9 million estimate for Kin, $2.6 million projection for Stranger and $2.5 million forecast for Veremos leave them outside of the top five. And even my $7.1 million prediction for Searching leaves it on the outside looking in.
The Labor Day weekend typically means that holdovers will experience increases in their grosses from the previous weekend. There is, of course, an extra day of totals to consider so that doesn’t hurt. It is not uncommon to see percentage bumps anywhere from the mid teens to high 20s and I expect that will hold true once again.
That means Crazy Rich Asians should have no trouble at all holding the top spot for the third frame in a row. Giving it an increase in the low to mid twenties seems plausible and that could it mean hits over $30 million. I suspect The Meg, Mission: Impossible – Fallout, and Christopher Robin will also experience solid weekends.
The only holdover that may fall is The Happytime Murders, which had a pretty bad debut over the weekend (more on that below).
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the long Labor Day weekend:
1. Crazy Rich Asians
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
2. The Meg
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
Predicted Gross: $10 million
4. OperationFinale
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
5. ChristopherRobin
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (August 24-26)
CrazyRichAsians had a magnificent hold in its sophomore weekend to easily remain #1. The comedy dropped just 6%, taking in $24.8 million (blasting past my $16.9 million estimate). The two-week total is $76 million.
TheMeg was second with $12.8 million (I said $11.2 million). The shark tale crossed the century mark and stands at $105 million after three weeks.
TheHappytimeMurders proved American audiences were in no mood for randy puppets. The poorly reviewed pic was third with a putrid $9.5 million, falling under my $13.8 million forecast.
Mission: Impossible – Fallout was fourth with $8 million (ahead of my $6.8 million take). It’s edging close to $200 million with $193 million total.
Mile22 rounded out the top five with $6.3 million (I said $7.5 million). The Mark Wahlberg action thriller has made a middling $25 million in its two weeks of release.
Finally, robot dog flick A.X.L. opened meekly in 10th position with $2.7 million. It did manage to edge past my $2.1 million prediction.
Debuting this weekend in theaters is the gothic horror tale TheLittleStranger, based on a 2009 novel by Sarah Waters. The pic is director Lenny Abrahamson’s follow-up to his Oscar nominated Room. The cast includes Domhnall Gleeson, Ruth Wilson, Will Poulter, and Charlotte Rampling.
Stranger rolls out on a rather low 475 screens over the long holiday weekend. That severely limits its prospects at the box office. I’ll estimate of the five new releases this weekend, this will place fourth just ahead of YaVeremos.
TheLittleStranger opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million
It’s become a common occurrence over the past few Labor Day weekends to see a high-profile picture from our neighbor to the south released stateside. 2018 is no different as Mexican drama Ya Veremos opens domestically Friday. The pic comes from director Pedro Pablo Ibarra with a cast including Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo.
A number of these selections are from distributor Pantelion Films, which is behind this. Veremos has performed well in Mexico. The release pattern has been extremely consistent for these imports – a debut with a theater count of 300-400 screens. This is slated to premiere on 350.
The results, however, have been varied. 2013’s Instructions Not Included provided the high mark with $10.3 million. Nothing has matched that since. 2014’s Cantinflas took in $3.5 million. 2016’s No Manches Frida made $4.6 million. Last summer’s Hazlo Como Hombre managed just $1.4 million. All of these grosses were for the four-day holiday frame.
Recent trends would indicate Veremos is more likely to come in on the low-end of that scale and not hit the surprising earnings of Instructions five years ago.
Ya Veremos opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The Mission: Impossible franchise has now reached its sixth feature and its 22nd year of existence, providing the seemingly ageless Tom Cruise with a hit making series that continues to deliver. That’s a rather remarkable accomplishment and Fallout belongs in the upper echelons in terms of bang for your buck entertainment.
Truth be told, there’s been no total dog yet in the Mission sagas. My one minor complaint about its predecessor, 2015’s RogueNation, was its lack of directorial vision. Christopher McQuarrie and his large squad of tech and stunt wizards pulled off some impressive action sequences in that picture. However, unlike the previous four pics, it didn’t feel quite as distinctive. Part 1 was certainly a Brian De Palma experience and the first sequel was all kinds of John Woo (for occasionally better and more for the worse). Same goes for J.J. Abrams and Brad Bird in the next ones (GhostProtocol still stands as my personal favorite).
McQuarrie is the first filmmaker to return in the director’s chair. I must admit that maybe I just didn’t fully recognize his stamp on the series the first time around. These latest missions are all about spectacle and not really concerned with melding the mayhem to its maker’s vision. In Fallout, that’s pretty much perfectly OK even more so than in Rogue. That’s because the team of people making the action are the best at it. We’ve seen plenty of car chases, helicopter battles, and bathroom brawls in our time. This franchise excels at it in ways few others do.
Ethan Hunt (Tom Cruise) and his IMF squad (including Simon Pegg and Ving Rhames) pick up two years after the events of the fifth installment. Learned Mission watchers know the plot will likely be convoluted and a secondary consideration. That’s true here, but let’s go over the basics. We have lost plutonium that IMF must find or risk nuclear attack. Part 5’s villain (Sean Harris) is involved. Ethan is forced to partner with a bulky CIA agent (Henry Cavill). MI6 agent Ilsa (Rebecca Ferguson) from Rogue resurfaces. She continues to be one of Hunt’s more interesting partners. And the short-lived wedded bliss that we witnessed Ethan in during part 3 with Michelle Monaghan becomes a focal point. Oh… and there’s plenty of double crosses. And those masks. Fallout also features the most satisfying use of a CNN anchor ever committed to film.
Of course, all of this leads to Ethan globe-trotting from London to Paris to Kashmir. And the song remains the same: our hero is the only one capable of figuring out how to keep the world from crumbling. What’s often startling is just how much care is expended in creating the impossible situations he finds himself in. McQuarrie’s biggest contribution may just be the go for broke style vibe to Ethan’s dangerous exploits. As always, Cruise is a more than willing subject and he even broke his ankle during one stunt.
Cruise and McQuarrie simply refuse to allow Mission to coast on auto pilot. The franchise continues to come up with new and exciting ways to put our mega star in peril. Six films in, that is quite a feat.
Over the past couple of days, you’ve seen my first round of Oscar predictions for the 2018 season. If you didn’t, here’s a reminder of my estimates for the four acting categories, Best Director, and the controversial new race Best Popular Film.
Which brings me to Best Picture. For the biggest race of all, I’m listing 25 possibilities and these inaugural estimates selects 9 films being honored.
As previous posts have pointed out, the Film Festival season that begins in earnest next week with Venice and then Toronto. The feats will tremendously shape my weekly predictions. They start August 30.
We’ve arrived at Best Director in my early bird predictions for the 2018 Oscars! In the last couple of days, I’ve also posted my take on the four acting categories and the new race that everyone has an opinion on – Best Popular Film. If you missed those, you can find them right here:
As mentioned previously, these categories will all come into much sharper focus this coming week when Venice kicks off Film Festival season with Toronto to quickly follow.
Let’s get to it with Director and Best Picture will follow later today.
My extremely early Oscar predictions for 2018 bring us to something brand new and quite controversial. Yes, I’m talking the category that we will see for the first time at next year’s ceremony: Best Popular Film.
The announcement last month by the Academy of this new race was met with a whole lotta criticism. And even if you weren’t one of the voices on the negative side, the category has caused understandable confusion.
We still don’t know the criteria for a nomination here. Over $100 million at the box office? How wide was its release?
The Academy did clear up one big question. Movies nominated in this category can also be featured in the Best Picture race. It’s a legitimate question as to whether or not that will happen. For instance, AStarIsBorn could be primed for the big race. Yet it seems likely to cross the century mark. How about Incredibles2? It’s a shoo-in for a nod in Best Animated Feature, so will voters acknowledge it in both categories? For now, I’m saying no. Many prognosticators believe this could be the Academy’s way of honoring BlackPanther. We shall see.
Bottom line… plenty of uncertainty here, but here’s my first take on the first year of Best Popular Film.
Best Director and then Picture are up next! If you missed my estimates for the four acting races, you can find them here:
Back at it again today with my very early Oscar predictions for 2018! We are now at Best Actor.
Yesterday, I discussed the Supporting categories. Earlier today, I posted my initial predictions for Actress. If you missed my take on them, you can peruse them here:
As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.
Tomorrow – look for Best Director and my first take on the new category everyone is talking about – Best Popular Film. Best Picture should be up Sunday!
As mentioned in those posts, these are an early bird snapshot of where I see the races before they come into sharper focus beginning next week. That’s when the film festival kicks off and many of the Oscar bait fall titles will be screened for critics. Starting next Thursday (August 30), I’ll begin posting my weekly ranked predictions in the major film categories.
Today brings us Best Actress and I’ll have Best Actor up later today!
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