Warner Bros hopes to kick off a new franchise nearly two decades after the first one when TombRaider debuts next weekend. Based on the iconic video game, it finds Alicia Vikander in the role of Lara Croft that was first portrayed by Angelina Jolie. Directed by the awesomely named Roar Uthaug, the adventure costars Dominic West, Walton Goggins, Daniel Wu, Nick Frost, and Kristin Scott Thomas.
In the summer of 2001, original adaptation LaraCroft: TombRaider premiered to $47 million with an eventual $131 million overall gross. The 2003 sequel TheCradleofLife experienced a significant dip with a $21 million opening and $65 million total. That was a long time ago and it will be interesting to see if old and new fans of the many video games will turn out.
There is potential for a bigger than anticipated roll out. In fact, the nearly $50 million generated by the first Raider certainly exceeded projections. Yet I believe this is more likely to earn a touch higher than the sequel 15 years ago.
TombRaider opening weekend prediction: $26.4 million
Blogger’s Note (03/07): I am revising my Wrinkle prediction from $42.8 million to $37.8 million and now have it in second place
A quartet of new movies enter the marketplace this weekend as Disney’s A Wrinkle in Time, horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, disaster action pic The Hurricane Heist, and action comedy Gringo debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
A month ago, I would have told you that A Wrinkle in Time would easily debut at #1. However, then Black Panther happened (another Disney property). While I’m giving Time the #1 slot, if it under performs, it’s not out of the question that Panther could spend a fourth week atop the charts. I actually have the two of them quite close.
The other newbies likely face a tough road ahead. I have The Strangers sequel tops among that trio. My meager $3.1 million estimate for Gringo puts it well outside the top 5 while my $5.6 million projection for Hurricane also leaves it on the outside looking in. I’ll say Hurricane misses the top 5 due to holdover powers of others. The 3-5 slots and a bit beyond could have quite a logjam with Red Sparrow, Game Night, and Peter Rabbit all posting similar grosses. Sparrow should manage to be #3 (barely by my count). I’ll say current #3 Death Wish doesn’t hold up as well as Night or Rabbit and falls from the top 5 altogether.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. BlackPanther
Predicted Gross: $40.2 million
2. A Wrinkle in Time
Predicted Gross: $37.8 million
3. Red Sparrow
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
4. The Strangers: Prey at Night
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
Box Office Results (March 2-4)
Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued its incredible performance in its third weekend, easily placing first with $66.3 million (in range with my $65.4 million forecast) for a total of $501 million overall. That puts Panther currently in 10th place on the all-time domestic earners list and it’s likely to climb to seventh this weekend. Its gross is good for the #3 all-time third weekend, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar.
Red Sparrow took the runner-up spot with a middling $16.8 million (just under my $17.5 million estimate). The Jennifer Lawrence spy thriller was hit with mixed reviews and marks the second box office disappointment in a row for the lead actress after mother!.
The Death Wish remake with Bruce Willis opened in third to a rather disappointing $13 million, under my $16.6 million projection. Poor reviews and potential bad timing for its release could have hurt it. It should fade rather quickly.
Game Night was fourth in its sophomore frame, holding up well with $10.4 million (I said $9.8 million) for $33 million total.
Peter Rabbit rounded out the top five with $10 million (ahead of my prediction of $8.7 million) for $84 million overall. The family tale looks to join the century club at some point.
Well, the 90th Annual Academy Awards have come and – after 220 minutes of ceremony – gone. This is my annual wrap up of the show and (of course most importantly) how I did with my predictions!
In short, not too shabby…
I went 19/21 on my predictions – missing out on just Best Original Song (“Remember Me” from Coco won over my upset pick “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall and A Fantastic Woman took Foreign Film over The Insult). Neither were a surprise.
In fact, the night was rather predictable as far as winners. The Shape of Water was the big victor, taking Picture, Director (Guillermo del Toro), Production Design, and Original Score. The acting winners (Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour, Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Allison Janney in I, Tonya) were the wise ones to have in the pool. Get Out got its recognition via Jordan Peele’s Original Screenplay. Legends like James Ivory (for his Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay) and cinematographer Roger Deakins (for his Blade Runner 2049 work) finally won gold statues.
Some other quick observations:
Jimmy Kimmel, as he was last year, is a solid host for the show. I would have no problem with him essentially being the new Billy Crystal and hosting every year or every other year. That said, it sure would be interesting to see what a Tiffany Haddish or Dave Chappelle could do with it.
That 90 years in movies Oscar montage could have gone on another half hour and I would have been fine with it.
I hope the Phantom Thread costume designer is enjoying his jet ski today.
And, of course, no Best Picture screw up! Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway can relax today.
And there you have it, folks! That’s my shape of Oscar 2017.
Ridley Scott is now nearly 40 years into his Alien franchise which started with his 1979 classic and preceded Alien: Covenant with the often confounding Prometheus from 2012. Scott has now made half of the six series entries. In many ways, this latest one is the least effective of all. It’s not bad and I’d say none of them have been (middling, yes). Covenant, however, lies in a strange place. The dark visual splendor and occasional jump horror scares are present at times. Memorable characters are not and that’s different than when we were rolling with Ripley (Sigourney Weaver) and others. The film is indeed a sequel to Prometheus, which was more of an existential exercise about where we come from and not a traditional xenomorph flick. Covenant wants to cover that territory, as well as bringing H.R. Geiger’s famed creature more in the frame.
There’s another crew in deep space and they’re on a colonization mission occurring a decade after the events of Prometheus. The membership of this crew (the Covenant) differs from previous ones in that they’re married couples. When a malfunction on the ship wakes them from their long slumber, they must deal with that quickly. A longer term problem is an unexpected xenomorph presence onboard which soon causes a growing widow population.
Katherine Waterston is Daniels and she’s basically new Ripley, but not as interesting. Danny McBride brings a little gravitas to the party as Tennessee, the ship’s pilot. Billy Crudup is the anointed captain. Yet it’s a Prometheus holdover that gets the most attention. Michael Fassbender is back as David, the android who stood out in the predecessor. When the crew must land on a planet they weren’t supposed to, they find him. Finding out what he’s been up to since the end of Prometheus takes up plenty of screen time. Fassbender doubles his time as he also plays Walter, a newer model droid that part of the Covenant crew. Their dynamic is somewhat intriguing in moments, but I never got over one big issue. I simply wasn’t begging for the unanswered Prometheus questions to be filled in, as that picture didn’t ultimately warrant the curiosity.
The talented Mr. Ridley never struggles to master production design and visuals. True here. And he strives to bring the gory action that we previously expected from this franchise. It’s here, but the mayhem is inflicted upon characters we won’t remember for long and with a xenomorph who’s popped out of better written people before.
In 2015, screenwriter and author Alex Garland announced himself as quite a special director with Ex Machina. With a visual style that drew fair comparison to Stanley Kubrick and a compelling story to go with it, that picture was one of the year’s highlights. There is no sophomore slump to be had with Annihilation, a challenging and eye-popping sci-fi experience that sticks with you after the credits roll (as did his first picture).
Lena (Natalie Portman) is a biology professor and Army vet whose husband Kane (Oscar Isaac) has been missing for a year after taking on a mysterious mission. He turns up one day after that disappearance, but doesn’t seem himself. A health scare causes him to be quarantined and causes Lena to search for answers. She finds some of them from psychologist Dr. Ventress (Jennifer Jason Leigh). It turns out Kane was part of a secret expedition to The Shimmer, a stretch of land that’s been evacuated and is undergoing government testing for bizarre activity within its perimeters. Many military personnel have entered it. Kane is the first to return.
Dr. Ventress and Lena figure out that some scientific experience may be better served to investigate The Shimmer, as opposed to military might. They assemble an all female squad that includes a physicist (Tessa Thompson), a paramedic (Gina Rodriguez), and a geologist (Tuva Novotny) to join them. Other than the doctor, the rest of the team is unaware of Lena’s familial connection to The Shimmer.
The world that these five women enter is a beautiful, eerie, and dangerous one. There are surprises to be found in The Shimmer – so much so that saying too much would enter spoiler territory. All of the characters that enter it have backstories that cause them to take on such a risky mission. Lena’s is an obvious one – to find out what happened to her husband. Some of the others are a bit more subtle.
Annihilation, like Ex Machina, has certain sequences that are stunning. There’s a scene involving a highly abnormal creature (you’ll know when you see it) that is truly tension filled and weirdly wonderful. The production design and look of The Shimmer is a triumph. Portman’s central character is a complicated one. She’s not just the concerned wife looking for answers. Lena has her own demons and they tie directly into her mission. That holds true for all of the women. Leigh and Rodriguez are particular standouts in their supporting work.
After Ex Machina, I certainly anticipated Annihilation to be a visually glorious experience and it is. Yet we’ve also seen Garland’s abilities to tell a tale packed with food for thought afterwards. Annihilation has something to say about rebirth, marriage, disease, depression, and more. You may not even realize it all until later. In the meantime, I remained transfixed on the unique world it created to explore those issues.
Gringo is action comedy laced with marijuana humor and it hits theaters next weekend. The film marks the directorial debut of Nash Edgerton (previously known for being a stunt coordinator). The cast includes David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron, Nash’s brother Joel Edgerton, Thandie Newton, Amanda Seyfried, Sharlto Copley, and the King of Pop’s daughter Paris Jackson.
Distributed by Amazon Studios and STX Entertainment, I’m having trouble envisioning much of an audience for it. The cast probably isn’t enough to get moviegoers too interested (save for maybe Theron) and the trailers and TV spots might not do enough to keep this from being a home viewing experience.
Gringo is rolling out on approximately 2400 screens (higher than I would have anticipated), but I’ll predict it struggles mightily to break through to American audiences.
The relatively new Entertainment Studios is hoping for another sleeper hit next weekend when The Hurricane Heist hits theaters. The disaster crime flick comes from director Rob Cohen (best known for making the original The Fast and the Furious and xXx) and centers on a group of bank robbers trying to pull off a job during a Category 5 hurricane. The cast includes Toby Kebbell, Maggie Grace, Ryan Kwanten, Melissa Bolona, and Ralph Ineson.
Made for a reported $35 million, Heist‘s best hope is that it will make some cash based on its concept (star power will not be a factor). There is plenty of competition out there as Red Sparrow and Death Wish will be in their sophomore frames and The Strangers: Prey at Night opens against it looking for similar audience members.
Last summer, the studio had an unexpected hit with the shark tale 47 Meters Down. It debuted to $11.2 million with a $44 million overall domestic haul. Ironically, that film’s director is behind the camera with The Strangers sequel it’s competing with. Meters had the advantage of having a shark in it (maybe one of the bank robbers should have been a great white) so I don’t really see Heist reaching its gross.
Interestingly, I keep going back to last fall’s Geostorm as an example of a disaster pic that outperformed expectations. That critically drubbed pic managed to gross $13.7 million out of the gate. Could Hurricane somehow blow away expectations? I doubt it.
For now, I’ll say this doesn’t reach double digits, but it could make more than my current expectations.
The Hurricane Heist opening weekend prediction: $5.6 million
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