Based on a 2006 Japanese flick, romantic drama Midnight Sun hopes to light up cinemas next weekend. It could face an uphill battle. From director Scott Speer, Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger (scion of Ahnuld) headline with the former playing a teen girl with a rare condition that makes her averse to sunlight. Mr. Schwarzenegger is her longtime crush. Rob Riggle and Quinn Shephard costar.
Since it’s not based on some YA novel with a lot of fans, I’m having a tough time picturing Sun breaking through with its intended young and female audience. The Open Road Films production is rolling out on approximately 2000 screens and I’ll say it doesn’t even manage to hit $5 million out of the gate.
Midnight Sun opening weekend prediction: $4 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Note (03/19): The reported 1400 theater count has caused me to downsize my Apostle prediction from $10.3 million to just $5.5 million.
Rising in theaters a week before the Easter holiday frame is Paul, ApostleofChrist. The Biblical drama casts Jim Faulkner as Saint Paul and Jim Caviezel as Saint Luke. The supporting cast includes Olivier Martinez and Joanne Whalley. Andrew Wyatt directs.
Faith based pictures are often tricky to project, but its pre Easter release date should only help. It also doesn’t hurt that Caviezel starred in the highest grossing (by far) genre entry, 2004’s ThePassionoftheChrist.
There is some competition for the same audience as the more contemporary Christian themed ICanOnlyImagine will be in its sophomore weekend. A decent comp for Apostle could be 2016’s Risen, which earned $11.8 million for its beginning. I’ll put it a bit under that.
Paul, ApostleofChrist opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Seven years after its predecessor posted solid box office numbers, animated sequel Sherlock Gnomes debuts in theaters next weekend. Produced by Paramount Animation and MGM, the 3D computer drawn comedy is the follow-up to 2011’s Gnomeo and Juliet. Returning voices include James McAvoy (Gnomeo), Emily Blunt (Juliet), Michael Caine, and Maggie Smith. Known faces bringing fresh voices to the follow-up include Chiwetel Ejiofor, Mary J. Blige, and Johnny Depp. Elton John contributes some music.
In February 2011, Gnomeo debuted to $25 million and ended up with $99.9 million overall. Fun fact: that makes it the highest grossing domestic earner of all time to not join the century club. One problem with Gnomes matching the first: a lot of the kiddos who went to see Gnomeo are now preteens or teenagers. Unlike Pixar sequels, there may not be enough goodwill for this to warrant them returning or bringing in a fresh batch of youngsters.
That said, competition for family audiences is rather light. I’ll predict Sherlock ends up in the low to mid teens for its start.
Sherlock Gnomes opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:
The giant monster mash franchise that began nearly five years ago is back on screen next weekend with the release of Pacific Rim Uprising. There’s some new faces behind and in front of the camera this time around. The original Pacific Rim debuted in the summer of 2013 to decent stateside box office numbers, earning $37 million in its opening weekend and $101 million overall. It reached over $400 million worldwide.
Part 1 came from recently minted Oscar winner Guillermo del Toro, who just shares a producer credit here. Steven S. DeKnight makes his directorial debut in a cast led by John Boyega. Costars include Scott Eastwood, Cailee Spaeny, Jing Tian, and Adria Arjona. Returning cast members from the first include Charlie Day, Rinko Kikuchim, and Burn Gorman. Idris Elba and Charlie Hunnam are not back.
Uprising arrives with a slightly smaller budget than part 1 – $150 million vs. $190 million. Expectations for the sequel are also smaller – at least in North America. Universal Pictures is likely looking to make the bulk of its cash overseas, particularly in the Asian markets. While Rim seems poised to debut at #1, I’m estimating a mid 20s gross and predicting it won’t reach the century club like its predecessor.
Pacific Rim Uprising opening weekend prediction: $23.4 million
Over the weekend, even Disney couldn’t knock Disney’s Black Panther off its perch atop the box office for the fourth frame in a row. Might the King’s reign end this weekend with the release of Tomb Raider? We also have teen romantic drama Love, Simon and faith-based true life drama I Can Only Imagine debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:
And that’s not quite all. There’s also the action thriller 7 Days in Entebbe with Daniel Bruhl and Rosamund Pike. It’s slated to come out on a low 800 screens and reviews have not been kind. I think it will be lucky to clear $1 million in its opening and I didn’t bother to do an individual estimate for it.
My estimate for Tomb Raider does give it the #1 slot, albeit not by much. I believe Panther is probably good for another $25M+ weekend and that puts it within striking distance.
Love, Simon is a big question mark in my view. It has sleeper potential due to its subject matter and glowing reviews. It could easily surprise and post a third place debut, but I’ve got it a bit lower in fourth after the second weekend of A Wrinkle in Time. That film, which underwhelmed out of the gate, could lose about half its opening weekend audience.
As for the five spot, I predict Game Night will stay there (vaulting over The Strangers: Prey at Night and Red Sparrow). My $5.4 million projection for I Can Only Imagine leaves it just outside the top 5 (yet even it has the potential to surpass my meager estimate).
And with that, here’s how I have the weekend playing out:
1. Tomb Raider
Predicted Gross: $26.4 million
2. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million
3. A Wrinkle in Time
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
4. Love, Simon
Predicted Gross: $13.3 million
5. Game Night
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
Box Office Results (March 9-11)
Black Panther held off its most serious competition to date – topping the charts and becoming the highest grossing comic book flick not named The Avengers. Holding the #1 spot for the fourth weekend in a row, Panther made $40.8 million (on target with my $40.2 estimate) for $561 million total. It now appears inevitable that it will surpass the $623 million made by Avengers to become the all-time superhero champ.
A Wrinkle in Time had to settle for the runner-up spot with $33.1 million as it came in on the lower end of estimates (middling reviews probably didn’t help). The heavily promoted fantasy debuted under my forecast of $37.8 million. Depending on its holds over the next few weeks, it could struggle to reach the century club.
As far as newcomers go, the success story of the weekend is long gestating horror sequel The Strangers: Prey at Night, which earned $10.4 million for third and topped my $7.9 million projection. In one weekend, it made double its teeny $5 million budget.
Red Sparrow was fourth in its sophomore outing with $8.5 million (I said $8.1 million) to bring its rather disappointing tally to $31 million.
Peter Rabbit ended up sixth with $6.7 million (I said $7.5 million) for $93 million as it hops towards the $100 million club.
I incorrectly had Game Night outside the top five, but it placed fifth with $7.8 million for $45 million overall.
The Hurricane Heist bombed with moviegoers and earned just $3 million in its ninth place opening, under my $5.6 million prediction. Gringo was another newcomer gaining zero traction with audiences as it made $2.7 million for 11th place (I said $3.1 million).
Perhaps the most high-profile title to screen at the South by Southwest Film Festival over the weekend was Steven Spielberg’s Ready Player One. The sci-fi action spectacle is based on Ernest Cline’s 2011 bestseller that’s chock full of pop culture references. In the lead up to its stateside release on March 29, advance word of mouth has been mixed. However, the screening yesterday may have changed those perceptions. Early reviews are calling this Spielberg’s biggest crowd pleaser in quite some time. The festival only gives us a small sampling of critical reaction, but it is certainly encouraging.
Even if the pic turns out to be a box office success, that doesn’t necessarily translate to any awards love (especially considering the genre). I don’t see this as a factor in the big races like Picture or Director. That said, Ready appears primed to be a player in one particular category and that’s Visual Effects. It’s said to be a feast for the eyes and though competition could be fierce, a nomination in that race seems quite feasible. Other tech categories such as Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Production Design could also be on table.
Too many big studio comedies can be numbered by the handful of gags that work while the rest fall flat. This is thankfully not the case with GameNight. It’s gimmicky, sure. It’s a bit forgettable. Yet it’s consistently amusing and doesn’t overburden itself with too much sentimentality. As far as the genre goes as of late, that’s enough to mark this a success.
The pic comes from co-directors John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein, who last made the more consistently unfunny Vacation reboot. Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams are Max and Annie, married with no children even though she’s ready. Their biggest shared love is one of competitiveness, which includes their game nights with friends. Their usual group includes playboy Ryan (Billy Magnussen) and childhood sweethearts Kevin and Michelle (Lamorne Morris and Kylie Bunbury). Next door neighbor and police officer Gary (Jesse Plemons) is a former regular until his recent divorce has turned him into quite the weirdo.
Our main couple’s typical showing of charade and board gaming dominance is interrupted when Max’s brother Brooks (Kyle Chandler) pops up. Brooks is the ultra cool brother with a better bone structure and larger pocketbook that Max harbors jealousy for. Instead of Clue or Risk, Brooks has a different idea for game night involving a kidnapping and real actors interacting with the group. The players won’t know what’s real and what isn’t.
Wouldn’t you know it? Turns out some real kidnappers turn up and that Brooks may be involved in some seedy stuff. What follows is a search for a Faberge egg, guns that the principals think aren’t real (an overused gag by now), squeaky toys used to bite down on for pain (a never before seen gag that’s pretty darn funny), and Bateman’s patented ironic detachment that always seems to work.
Night is served with a game cast. Standouts include Plemons as the creepy but probably well-meaning neighbor and Magnussen as the dim bulb participant of the team. Sharon Horgan is his much smarter date for the evening and she provides some humorous moments as well. The screenplay also provides a twist or two that are genuinely surprising.
The actual concept of a game night may not be as joyous as it’s supposed to be on occasion. You need fun people there. This movie has them. Like real game nights, you may forget some of details by the next day but you’ll remember enjoying it.
Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million
Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama ICanOnlyImagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and Moms’ NightOut.
I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.
ICanOnlyImagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million
Premiering this weekend at the South by Southwest Film Festival, John Krasinski’s horror pic AQuietPlace is making a considerable amount of noise. Described as a near silent genre exercise in which monsters attack you if you make a sound, Place is impressing fest goers and critics alike. The pic sits at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The director stars alongside his real life wife Emily Blunt and Noah Jupe and Millicent Simmonds playing their children.
Slated to open stateside on April 6, early reviews suggest Place could be a monster hit at the box office. By the way, 2018 is shaping up to be a banner year for Blunt with this and MaryPoppinsReturns debuting on Christmas.
Horror movies generally don’t make their way to consideration for Oscar voters, but GetOut proved an exception in 2017. Could AQuietPlace follow suit? Even with the strong critical notices, it’s doubtful. Blunt is getting raves for her work here, but I suspect she may receive even more attention for Poppins. Two races where Quiet could factor in? The Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories. Even though the picture is said to be set at library tone decibels, its intermittent use of sound might impress voters in those technical categories.
Love, Simon hopes to enchant moviegoers when the romantic dramedy debuts next weekend. The film, based on a 2015 YA novel by Becky Albertalli, focuses on a closeted gay teen (Nick Robinson) growing up in the South. Jennifer Garner and Josh Duhamel play his parents with Greg Berlanti (known mostly for his TV work) directing.
From the producers of The Fault in Our Stars, the pic has garnered positive critical response as it stands at 87% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Simon has received some publicity for its subject matter and the mostly strong reviews should help.
On the high end, I could see the 20th Century Fox production nabbing about $17 million. However, I believe a lower double digits roll out is more likely as it will hope for word-of-mouth to sustain it in subsequent weekends.
Love, Simon opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million
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