Month: November 2017

Coco Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (11/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising my estimate up a bit from $50.5 million in the three-day to $54.1 million and $74.6 million for the five-day.

Disney/Pixar looks to brings hordes of family audiences in over the Thanksgiving holiday once again when Coco debuts next Wednesday. The musical fantasy centers around the Mexican holiday Day of the Dead and features the voices of Anthony Gonzalez, Gael Garcia Bernal, Benjamin Bratt, and Edward James Olmos. It’s directed by Lee Unkrich, who last made Toy Story 3 for the studio.

The animated flick is already setting box office records in Mexico, which should be no major surprise given its setting. Reviews (as they typically are for Pixar) are solid with a current 96% Rotten Tomatoes score.

So how well will Coco perform stateside? Looking over the history of Disney’s Thanksgiving releases, there are several models to choose from. On the high-end, 2013’s Frozen took in $67.3 million for the three-day traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $93.9 million for the five-day Wednesday to Sunday gross. On the low-end, 2015’s The Good Dinosaur only managed $39.1 million from Friday to Sunday and $55.4 million for the five-day. I don’t believe Coco will achieve the Frozen peak or the Dinosaur low.

Going back to just last year, Moana earned $56.6 million for the three-day and $82 million from Wednesday-Sunday. That would be on the higher end of expectations here, but it’s certainly feasible. Like Moana, our 2017 Disney offering has good buzz and looks to be the front-runner for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

Yet I believe it may fall a bit below that and the best model I see goes back seven years to Tangled, which took in $48.7 million for the three-day and $68.7 million for the five-day. I’ll estimate Coco gets just above that.

Coco opening weekend prediction: $54.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $74.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my Roman J. Israel, Esq. prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/19/roman-j-israel-esq-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 17-19

Superheroes will rule the box office this weekend as DC’s Justice League looks to dominate the competition with Marvel’s Thor: Ragnarok sliding to second in its third frame. We also have the debuts of Wonder with Julia Roberts, Owen Wilson, and Jacob Tremblay and the animated The Star. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/07/justice-league-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/wonder-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/the-star-box-office-prediction/

My Justice League estimate gives it the third highest opening of 2017 behind Beauty and the Beast and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 – and about $6 million above what Thor achieved just two weeks ago. Figuring in the Ragnarok gross this weekend, the DC/Marvel Cinematic Universes should account for about $150-$160 million of this pre-Thanksgiving weekend.

The 3-6 slots could get interesting. Daddy’s Home 2 rose above expectations, as did Murder on the Orient Express. I’m projecting that their sophomore frames should find them in third and fourth with Wonder rounding out the top 5 and The Star in sixth. Yet it could be close and that could change if either of the newcomers surpass expectations. Both of them stand decent shots at over performing.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the weekend:

1. Justice League

Predicted Gross: $128.4 million

2. Thor: Ragnarok

Predicted Gross: $25 million (representing a drop of 56%)

3. Daddy’s Home 2

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. Murder on the Orient Express

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Wonder

Predicted Gross: $12.9 million

6. The Star

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

Box Office Results (November 10-12)

Thor: Ragnarok hammered all competition and set some franchise records as well. The threequel earned $57 million in weekend #2 (above my $53.8 million take) to brings its total to $212 million. In ten days, it’s already outdone both of its predecessors.

Just as the original did in December 2015, Daddy’s Home 2 surpassed forecasts. While it didn’t open with the $38 million achieved by the first Daddy’s, the sequel took in a pleasing $29.6 million. That’s well ahead of my $21.8 million prediction and on the highest end of expectations. The Will Ferrell/Mark Wahlberg follow-up hopes to continue its nice run over the next few weeks.

Kenneth Branagh’s Murder on the Orient Express also came in high with $28.6 million compared to my $24.6 million estimate. The murder mystery remake did receive a middling B Cinemascore average, but it could still play well with an adult audience for the remainder of November.

After a so-so opening that couldn’t match its predecessor from summer 2016, the second weekend of A Bad Moms Christmas delivered good news for the comedy sequel. It dropped just 32% to earn $11.4 million (topping my $8.6M estimate) to bring its two-week total to $39 million. If it continues to play well through the holidays, it may not be a disappointment after all.

Jigsaw rounded out the top five with $3.4 million (I said $2.9 million) to brings it tally to $34 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Oscar Watch: Wonder

Stephen Chbsoky’s Wonder opens on Friday and reviews out today reveal that it could be more than the umpteenth film to feature the word “wonder” in the title. Seriously, there’s been five.

The pic is adapted from a R.J. Palacio novel and casts Jacob Tremblay as a young boy with a facial deformity in public school. Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson play his parents. Truth be told, I kind of assumed Wonder wasn’t much of a candidate for positive reviews. Yet it’s getting them. Variety went as far to say it deserved to be in the same company as 1980’s The Elephant Man and 1985’s Mask, which both had similar themes. Perhaps I shouldn’t have been so surprised considering Chbsoky’s previous directorial effort, 2012’s The Perks of Being a Wallflower, received critical praise.

How will this translate to Oscar attention? It most likely won’t, but its chances look better today than yesterday at least. That said, a Best Picture nod is unlikely. Lionsgate could push Tremblay in Supporting Actor and there’s plenty who feel the youngster should have been nominated for 2015’s Room, in which his costar Brie Larson won Actress.

That’s probably a long shot, too. The best hope for Wonder is that its solid reviews thus far will translate to a nice box office showing. And just maybe it could factor into Adapted Screenplay, which is looking less crowded than Original Screenplay right now.

My Oscar Watch posts will continue…

 

Ingrid Goes West Movie Review

“Where’s my phone?”

Those three words, in today’s age, are enough to send collective shivers down most of our spines. They’re our lifeline to everything and everyone. In Matt Spicer’s darkly funny Ingrid Goes West, those words have a considerably more sinister meaning when uttered by its central character Ingrid Thorburn (Aubrey Plaza). We may feel useless without our devices. Yet it provides her with her only feeling of usefulness and takes that in uncomfortable directions.

Ingrid is a lonely and mentally disturbed figure who finds solace through Instagram scrolling and fixating on certain profiles. We first find her ❤️ing the endless wedding posts of someone we assume is her friend. When she crashes said wedding (these things happen in real-time nowadays) and frighteningly confronts her for not being invited, it turns out they’re not really connected at all.

The second part of the title comes into play when Ingrid’s next fixation is Taylor (Elizabeth Olsen), a Venice Beach native who’s essentially a professional Instagram poster. Ingrid uses her inheritance from her mom’s death to move across the country with the idea of making her acquaintance. It works and it takes a dognapping  to do it. She actually does befriend Taylor and her starving artist hubby (Wyatt Russell).

There’s not an action taken here by Ingrid that isn’t directly a result of her considerably loneliness and need for friendship, no matter how fake or manufactured it is. Her Batman obsessed landlord (O’Shea Jackson Jr.) becomes a love interest, but only for Ingrid’s self-serving purposes. The character of Taylor’s brother (Billy Magnussen, memorable here) is a sleazy loose cannon, but he’s the only one that manages to see Ingrid for who she is.

Spicer and his co-writer David Branson Smith have certainly concocted a screenplay for its time. While there are laughs present, Ingrid goes into Single White Female territory (that quarter century old pic is name checked).

Plaza is a gifted performer who seems to be in a constant state of ambivalence in many of her roles. Ingrid gives her an opportunity to show a more varied range of emotions. She creates a character that is sympathetic to a point, but she also serves as good reminder to not talk to strangers. Even on Instagram.

The film also cleverly shows what we all kind of already know. These social media platforms are a way to create yourself in many instances and not be yourself. In the conclusion of Ingrid Goes West, our title character has a rare moment to be herself. That might be a moment of triumph in many pictures. In this jet black comedy, we’re left uncertain just how well or badly that could go.

*** (out of four)

Murder on the Orient Express Movie Review

In his version of Murder on the Orient Express, Kenneth Branagh allows himself a part as big as his glorious mustache. The supporting players are often relegated to bits as small as the crumbs that might fall out of said mustache if his character didn’t maintain it so fastidiously.

That character is famed Belgian detective Hercule Poirot. Don’t pronounce it Hercules or he will correct you in the exacting fashion he orders his eggs. That precision extends to his career. There’s right and wrong and nothing in between. Poirot’s worldview is challenged when he boards the Orient Express circa 1934, which happens to be the year Agatha Christie’s source material was penned.

Booking passage from stunning Istanbul to Paris, Poirot looks forward to a break from his work, but his powers of detection are utilized when a murder occurs. Nefarious character Ratchett (Johnny Depp) is stabbed multiple times during the night. Everyone onboard is a suspect and there’s about a dozen of them that Poirot must consider.

A lot of familiar faces are among the possibilities. There’s Michelle Pfeiffer’s flirty and dramatic Caroline. Daisy Ridley’s mysterious Mary and her connection with Leslie Odom Jr.’s Dr. Arbuthnot. Judi Dench’s domineering Princess Dragomiroff and her quiet assistant (Olivia Colman). Josh Gad is the victim’s right-hand man and Willem Dafoe is German professor Gerhard. Penelope Cruz is there as the faithful Pilar who hints at a more sinful past. And there’s more.

Yet even though Branagh has assembled a fine troupe of actors, this is the Poirot show. He dominates the running time with his outsized personality and facial hair. The character is introduced as a bit of a caricature but he becomes more sympathetic as the details of the murder and those who may have committed it are slowly revealed.

For those who’ve never read the book or seen any of the other filmed versions (the most notable being Sidney Lumet’s 1974 adaptation with Albert Finney as Poirot in a considerably smaller ‘stache), Murder might keep you guessing. A lot of other audience members, I suspect, already know the outcome.

Branagh brings a visual style here that is grand and sweeping. There’s some complicated and impressive tracking and overhead shots to behold. We also have the train careening through the wilderness and into tunnels that often look a bit too digitized for my taste.

Truth be told, this Murder doesn’t add much fresh to Christie’s story. Viewers who are fans of the 1974 pic might deem this unnecessary. It’s still an often fascinating whodunnit with a talented director, albeit one who hogs the spotlight a bit. Poirot may eventually change his views by the closing credits and it mirrors my reaction. It doesn’t get it totally right or totally wrong. There’s an in between.

**1/2 (out of four)

Thor: Ragnarok Movie Review

Thor’s just wanna have fun sometimes and it’s a feeling that runs through a solid portion of the third film in the franchise’s running time. Ragnarok, more than most Marvel Cinematic Universe entries these days, feels less like it’s building toward next summer’s Avengers free for all where all their characters will join forces. Instead it feels more like director Taika Waititi got a chance to bring an often weird, humorous and  outright loopy vibe to the proceedings. And there’s a lot to dig about it when it’s working on those terms especially.

The subtitle here refers to the destruction of Thor’s (Chris Hemsworth) beloved planet of Asgard. That possibility is raised with the return of a previously unknown sister to Thor and Loki (Tom Hiddleston) named Hela (Cate Blanchett), aka the Goddess of Death. She’s got a gnarly headdress and daddy issues like her siblings had. Of course, daddy is Odin (Anthony Hopkins), the king of Asgard who behaved like Hannibal Lecter when he raised Hela but now is basically a vegan in comparison. His daughter preferred the former.

All this business could be described as the main plot line in Ragnarok. And it’s all perfectly acceptable and visually impressive stuff that we’ve seen before. That said, Blanchett is a notch above most MCU villains because… well, Cate Blanchett is just a fantastic actress.

Yet the picture also spends lots of time on the planet Sakaar. It’s a land ruled by the flamboyant Grandmaster (Jeff Goldblum), whose idea of entertainment is creating Gladiator like battles for his prized possession. Turns out that possession is none other than the Incredible Hulk himself! He’s stuck in his perpetually giant green angry self for a while and not in the Bruce Banner (Mark Ruffalo) scientist mode. It’s also where Thor meets Valkyrie (Tessa Thompson), a bounty hunter who happens to hail from Asgard.

Sakaar is where the best moments happen in Ragnarok and the bulk of them contain a lot of comedy that lands. Goldblum is simply a joy to watch. We have a ball watching the Hulk trapped in these surroundings. And Loki (forever the best MCU bad guy/sometimes sort of good guy) gets to display his charm coupled with Hiddleston’s always delicious work as the character.

When the first Thor premiered in 2011, I considered it a mixed bag. The Avengers and proper sequel The Dark World did more to hammer home Hemsworth’s effectiveness in the part. On a side note, the absence of girlfriend Natalie Portman is briefly addressed and all it did was remind me that her character even existed in the first place. Director Waititi imbues Ragnarok with a winky face emotion that is most entertaining when it’s away from Asgard and the familiar familial dynamics. In its own strange way, it’s the most pure fun Thor feature of the bunch.

*** (out of four)

 

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 9th Edition

It’s Thursday and that means my weekly updated Oscar predictions are in!

Some developments from the past seven days:

  • Steven Spielberg’s The Post is down to just one nomination in my predictions. It’s the big one (Best Picture), but it’s clinging for dear life to the 9th spot with pics like I, Tonya and Get Out getting closer to getting in. Obviously, no one has seen it yet so this is based solely on buzz alone. We did get our first trailer for it this week at long last.
  • Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird makes a major leap this week into both Picture and Actress (Saoirse Ronan). That means Blade Runner 2049 has fallen out of my predicted nine in Picture with Meryl Streep out in Actress for The Post (she held the #1 spot for weeks).
  • For the first time, Martin McDonagh’s directorial work in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is in. That means Luca Guadagnino (Call Me by Your Name) is currently out.
  • In Best Actor, I’ve finally taken Hugh Jackman in The Greatest Showman out of the top 5, replaced with Andrew Garfield in Breathe.
  • Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me by Your Name) replaces Michael Shannon for The Shape of Water in Supporting Actor. If that happens, Call Me would be the first Supporting Actor race to feature two actors (Stuhlbarg, Armie Hammer) from the same picture since Bugsy in 1991 (Harvey Keitel, Ben Kingsley).
  • Mary J. Blige enters the top 5 in Supporting Actress, replacing Kristin Scott Thomas in Darkest Hour. 

That means all 8 major categories have seen changes. Lastly, there’s the unprecedented news that broke last night involving Christopher Plummer reshooting all of Kevin Spacey’s scenes in Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World. Shockingly, the studio is still looking to make its December 22 release date. If that happens, Plummer might be one to look out for in Supporting Actor.

Let’s get to it!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside, Ebbing Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Mudbound (PR: 4)

7. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

8. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

10. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

11. Get Out (PR: 15)

12. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

13. Phantom Thread (PR: 12)

14. Detroit (PR: 14)

15. Last Flag Flying (PR: 13)

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

7. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 9)

8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 10)

9. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 8)

10. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 4)

5. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (PR: 10)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 7)

10. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 9)

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 2)

3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 3)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 7)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

9. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

10. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

7. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Bria Vinaite, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Molly’s Game (PR: 4)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

5. Last Flag Flying (PR: 3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 10)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

3. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Get Out (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

7. The Big Sick (PR: 6)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 8)

10. Phantom Thread (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dunkirk

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute) (PR: 1)

2. In the Fade (PR: 2)

3. Loveless (PR: 8)

4. First, They Killed My Father (PR: 3)

5. The Square (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Foxtrot (PR: 5)

7. Happy End (PR: 4)

8. A Fantastic Woman (PR: 7)

9. Tom of Finland (PR: 10)

10. The Divine Order (PR: 9)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKDPrpJEGBY

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco (PR: 1)

2. The Breadwinner (PR: 2)

3. Loving Vincent (PR: 3)

4. Birdboy: The Forgotten Children (PR: 4)

5. Ferdinand (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cars 3 (PR: 7)

7. The LEGO Batman Movie (PR: 6)

8. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (PR: 10)

9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie (PR: 8)

10. Despicable Me 3 (PR: 9)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Cries from Syria (PR: 4)

2. Jane (PR: 5)

3. City of Ghosts (PR: 1)

5. Icarus (PR: 3)

5. Risk (PR: 2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Human Flow (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Step (PR: 6)

8. Kedi (PR: 10)

9. Long Strange Trip (PR: Not Ranked)

10. One of Us (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

Dina

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Get Out (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Mudbound (PR: 5)

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

9. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 9)

10. Detroit (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

The Post

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

5. Wonderstruck (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phantom Thread (PR: 5)

7. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)

9. Mudbound (PR: 7)

10. mother! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 1)

2. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

3. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

4. Phantom Thread (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 8)

8. Wonderstruck (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Greatest Showman (PR: 7)

10. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Call Me by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread (PR: 1)

2. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. The Beguiled (PR: 7)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonder Wheel (PR: 8)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 5)

8. Murder on the Orient Express (PR: 10)

9. The Post (PR: 9)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

5. Phantom Thread (PR: 3)

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

8. I, Tonya (PR: 5)

9. It (PR: 9)

10. Thor: Ragnarok (PR: 7)

Dropped Out:

Blade Runner 2049

Wonderstruck

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=06HNt_5Qwhg

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 1)

2. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 3)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 2)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Dunkirk (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (PR: 6)

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 8)

9. Beauty and the Beast (PR: 7)

10. Thor: Rangarok (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Kong: Skull Island

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJtZYCv7AxA

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. The Shape of Water (PR: 6)

5. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver (PR: 9)

7. Coco (PR: 7)

8. Wonder Woman (PR: 4)

9. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: 10)

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 2)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 3)

4. Baby Driver (PR: 6)

5. The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

7. Darkest Hour (PR: 9)

8. Transformers: The Last Knight (PR: 8)

9. Coco (PR: 10)

10. War for the Planet of the Apes (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Detroit

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)

2. Dunkirk (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

4. Wonderstruck (PR: 4)

5. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: 6)

7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The Post (PR: 7)

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 9)

10. Coco (PR: 5)

Dropped Out:

The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall (PR: 2)

2. “Remember Me” from Coco (PR: 1)

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker (PR: 3)

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast (PR: 4)

5. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 5)

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit (PR: 7)

8. “The Promise” from The Promise (PR: 8)

9. “If I Dare” from Battle of the Sexes (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

“To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

That leaves the following breakdown of nominations:

11 Nominations

The Shape of Water

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

9 Nominations

Darkest Hour

7 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

6 Nominations

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name

4 Nominations

Mudbound, Lady Bird

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Phantom Thread, Wonderstruck, Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

I, Tonya, Coco, Cries from Syria, The Greatest Showman

1 Nomination

The Post, Stronger, Breathe, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Molly’s Game, Last Flag Flying, Get Out, BPM (Beats Per Minute), In the Fade, Loveless, First, They Killed My Father, The Square, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales, Ferdinand, Jane, City of Ghosts, Icarus, Risk, The Beguiled, War for the Planet of the Apes, Transformers: The Last Knight, Baby Driver, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker. 

The Star Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures is hoping family and faith-based audiences make the journey to The Star next weekend. The animated tale is centered around some talking animals and their adventures as the first Christmas is occurring. Some familiar faces in both the film and music world provide voices including Steven Yeun, Gina Rodriguez, Keegan-Michael Key, Tyler Perry, Kristin Chenoweth, Zachary Levi, Tracy Morgan, Anthony Anderson, Mariah Carey, Kelly Clarkson, Kris Kristofferson, Christopher Plummer, Ving Rhames, Gabriel Iglesias, Patricia Heaton, and even Oprah Winfrey.

Made for a small reported budget of just $18 million, The Star will hope to shine brightly with its intended audience before Pixar’s Coco arrives just five days later for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Prognosticating for this one is a little tricky. I could certainly see it exceeding expectations with a gross high in the teens. However, I believe a more likely scenario is an opening weekend in the lower double digits to maybe lower teens with hope that it holds over well the following holiday weekend (even with the Coco competition).

The Star opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my Justice League prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/07/justice-league-box-office-prediction/

For my Wonder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/wonder-box-office-prediction/

Wonder Box Office Prediction

Jacob Tremblay made quite an impression on audiences and critics two years ago as an abducted child in the Oscar nominated Room. Next weekend, he headlines the drama Wonder, portraying a child with a facial deformity trying to fit into a new school. The film is based on a 2012 novel by R.J. Palacio and is directed by Stephen Chbosky, best known for making the adaptation of his own novel – 2012’s The Perks of Being a Wallflower. Julia Roberts and Owen Wilson are cast as Tremblay’s parents.

Wonder will attempt to bring in both female and family audiences. For family audiences, there is the animated The Star opening against it (though that should skewer younger) and a little something called Justice League that lots of kids may want to see (though that should skewer more to younger males).

As I see it, I don’t look for Wonder to necessarily have an impressive opening. Low double digits to possibly lower teens seems about right. That said, if audiences like it and if it achieves solid word-of-mouth, it could play well into the Thanksgiving weekend that follows and beyond.

Wonder opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million

For my Justice League prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/07/justice-league-box-office-prediction/

For my The Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/the-star-box-office-prediction/

Justice League Box Office Prediction

The DC Cinematic Universe has reached Marvel Cinematic Universe territory as Justice League debuts next weekend. The reported $300 million production brings many of the company’s comic book creations together as it hopes to have the largest opening of the fourth quarter of 2017 until Star Wars hits next month.

In March of 2016, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice brought Superman (Henry Cavill) and Batman (Ben Affleck) together for the first time. Now they’re joined by Aquaman (Jason Momoa), The Flash (Ezra Miller), and Cyborg (Ray Miller). And, oh yes, there’s Wonder Woman (Gal Gadot), who just happened to star in her own summer 2017 pic that surprisingly turned out to the season’s biggest blockbuster ($412 million). Man of Steel and BvS director Zack Snyder is behind the camera once again. Other costars include series returnees Amy Adams, Diane Lane, Jeremy Irons, and the introduction of J.K. Simmons as Commissioner Gordon. Expect some other familiar faces to pop up too.

Batman v Superman opened to a terrific $166 million a year and a half ago. However, poor reviews and mixed word-of-mouth meant a heavily front loaded gross. It ended up with $330 million. If nothing had happened in the interim, it may be a legitimate question as to whether some moviegoers are primed to see these characters again. The fantastic reception earned by Wonder Woman should help (there could be a sizable female audience who go to this simply to see Gadot’s character so quickly again).

That said, I don’t expect League to get close to that BvS number in its first three days. In fact, it could compete for biggest comic book adaptation debut of the month since Thor: Ragnarok posted $122 million this past weekend.

I believe it will just get there and probably post a premiere in line with another DC property – summer 2016’s Suicide Squad, which made $133 million for its start. I’ll put it just a bit under that.

Justice League opening weekend prediction: $128.4 million

For my Wonder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/wonder-box-office-prediction/

For my The Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/11/08/the-star-box-office-prediction/