There’s an impressive amount of talent in front of and behind the camera in Suburbicon, opening next weekend. Yet it may not be enough to prevent it from becoming a flop.
George Clooney directs the 1950s set crime comedy with a script from the Coen Brothers and a cast led by Matt Damon, Julianne Moore, and Oscar Isaac. Before its September premiere at the Toronto Film Festival, the pic was looked at as a potential awards contender. Then the reviews happened. Critical reaction hasn’t been too kind and it sits at just 41% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The final weekend of October (unless you’re talking horror flicks) isn’t traditionally fertile ground for newcomers. With muted buzz at best, I believe Suburbicon will have trouble even reaching double digits.
Suburbicon opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
For seven years in gruesome clockwork fashion every October, the Saw franchise unleashed a new entry that began in 2004 and ended in 2010. After seven years of dormancy, it’s back next weekend with Jigsaw. The Lionsgate release comes from directors Michael and Peter Spierig with Tobin Bell returning as the title character and a cast of relative unknowns.
In 2004, the first Saw pic impressed critics and audiences alike and quickly turned into a sleeper hit. Sequels II-V all subsequently posted low 30s openings before installment VI stopped the gravy train with a $14.1 million debut and $27 million overall gross (all series lows). The seventh pic, Saw 3D in 2010, bounced back a bit with a $22 million debut and $45 million total.
After such a lengthy break, will sequelitis sink in? The answer is probably yes. We have seen these significant layoffs in the genre hurt titles such as Scream 4 and Blair Witch. Additionally, the teens that frequent these pics may not have as much familiarity with the franchise due to the hiatus.
I’ll predict Jigsaw barely manages to avoid a series low premiere with a debut in the $14-$16 million range.
I’ve listened to a whole lot of Tom Petty over the past few days since we’ve learned of the legendary singer’s untimely death. Yet more than most artists, his songs (the majority with his group The Heartbeakers) have been part of our fabric forever.
This is a post I’ve been meaning to write for over a week now. Truth be told, deciding on a Top Ten Petty Songs is almost impossible. My best advice – get on your streaming service or get out your record player and enjoy this musical genius.
These are my personal top ten favorite songs by him-
10. “It’s Good to Be King” from Wildflowers (1994)
9. “Breakdown” from TomPetty & theHeartbreakers (1976)
8. “Walls (Circus)” from SongsandMusicfromShe’stheOne (1996)
7. “Mary Jane’s Last Dance” from GreatestHits (1993)
6. “Southern Accents” from SouthernAccents (1985)
5. “I Won’t Back Down” from FullMoonFever (1989)
4. “Runnin’ Down a Dream” from FullMoonFever (1989)
3. “American Girl” from TomPetty & theHeartbreakers (1976)
2. “Free Fallin” from FullMoonFever (1989)
1. “Don’t Do Me Like That” from DamntheTorpedoes (1979)
Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.
Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.
We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo2! AMadeaHalloween, firefighter drama OnlytheBrave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller TheSnowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
While I don’t have Boo2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.
It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ HappyDeathDay scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.
OnlytheBrave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and TheSnowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.
There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature SameKindofDifferentasMe with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. Boo2! AMadeaHalloween
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
2. HappyDeathDay
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for HappyDeathDay, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and GetOut having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.
BladeRunner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.
Jackie Chan’s TheForeigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.
It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.
TheMountainBetweenUs rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!
Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).
I’m not sure if I’m “spoiling” anything here, but Jeremy Renner takes a break from franchises and shows up in the final third of TheHouse. Playing a bad guy, the mere fact of his presence is meant to elicit laughter because… well, I’m not entirely sure why. That’s emblematic of the film itself. You have a lot of famous performers (most known for their comedic skills unlike Renner) trapped in a flimsy concept that only manages to wring less than 90 minutes of material. And there certainly isn’t an hour and a half’s worth of funny.
Will Ferrell and Amy Poehler are Scott and Kate Johansen, a middle-class couple about to become empty nesters as their daughter Alex (Ryan Simpkins) is about to enter college. It’s the summer before her exit and her folks are trying to maximize their time with her. They’re a bit of the overprotective type who smother their kid and guilt her into WalkingDead nights instead of visiting her friends. Alex’s higher ed plans take a hit when the Johansens learn a long-planned for scholarship is kaput because a corrupt city councilman (Nick Kroll) would rather spend it on a community pool.
With the need to make some fast money, what’s this seemingly normal couple to do? In this high concept exercise, the answer is teaming with down on his luck divorcee neighbor Frank (Jason Mantzoukas) and opening an illegal casino. The scheme yields dollars but other complications that come with the high roller life. Criminal elements enter the mix and this new job also gives the Johansens a personality transplant into a hard partying couple who start to believe their dangerous notoriety.
Bottom line is that we see Ferrell do his goofy Everyman type turned goofy comedic hard ass. If you find that irresistible, maybe there’s enough to sustain you here. Yet this effort from director Andrew J. Cohen (who co-wrote the much more satisfactory Neighbors) hits its marks with infrequency. Adam McKay is a producer here and he’s done better work with Ferrell. I couldn’t help but wonder if the sometimes sharp political commentary McKay brings to his work would have helped here. I’m pretty sure the script is trying to say something about the plight of the middle class and their earning power, but it’s buried in spurting blood gags and believing Jeremy Renner turning up will work as a gag on its own terms. There’s humorous moments peppered throughout, but nowhere near enough to recommend it.
Sofia Coppola’s TheBeguiled is a more satisfying exercise in atmosphere than in storytelling. A remake of an early 70s Don Siegel/Clint Eastwood production, the film sets us three years into the Civil War in Virginia at a nearly abandoned girls school. The inhabitants consist of just five students, head teacher Miss Farnsworth (Nicole Kidman), and other instructor Edwina (Kirsten Dunst).
Their quiet existence is jolted when wounded Union soldier Corporal John McBurney (Colin Farrell) seeks refuge to recover from his injuries. This is when a series of ulterior motives plays out over an hour and a half. Miss Farnsworth runs her enterprise with an exacting demeanor that the Corporal’s presence alters. Edwina is looking to escape the confines of the Southern mansion’s trappings and sees the Corporal’s presence as that chance. Alicia (Elle Fanning) is the feisty student and the Corporal’s presence awakens her desires for further rebellion. As for the Corporal? His motives are an ever-changing guessing game as he charms his way through the lonely home and the people in them.
TheBeguiled is ultimately a tale of empowerment told in a melodramatic and brisk manner. Clocking in at just over 90 minutes, writer/director Coppola hits the mark creating the claustrophobic setting. There may be a massive war going on around them that’s affecting their lives, but the picture sets its sights solely on the drama in the home. That said, the action happening inside is only somewhat intriguing. That may just be a matter of a rather simple concept that can only go so far in dramatic weight.
The performances are uniformly fine, but it’s Kidman who has the best material to work with in shaping her character. You question where her actions come from and how her back story informs them. Not so much with the rest of the players. Ultimately TheBeguiled is a bit of a disappointment that still evokes an often interesting sense of time and place.
As the New York Film Festival draws to its close, another piece of the Oscar puzzle has revealed itself with Woody Allen’s WonderWheel. Early critical reaction is a bit mixed yet there seems to be general consensus that Kate Winslet’s lead performance is wonderful.
As has been discussed numerous times already on the blog, Best Actress looks packed with this year. There’s already acclaimed performances from Frances McDormand in ThreeBillboardsOutsideEbbing, Missouri, Margot Robbie in I, Tonya, Emma Stone in BattleoftheSexes, Sally Hawkins in TheShapeofWater, Judi Dench in VictoriaandAbdul, and Jessica Chastain in Molly’sGame, among others. That’s in addition to Meryl Streep’s unseen but likely contending work in ThePost. Even with all that significant competition, Winslet could well be in line for her 8th nomination, having won once in 2008 for TheReader.
The cinematography for Wheel has also received praise and that’s certainly a race where a nod is doable. However, I am now thinking Woody’s latest is a long shot to nab a Best Picture nomination and Original Screenplay seems less assured now (that’s another crowded category). Juno Temple has received some decent ink today, but a Supporting Actress nomination could be a stretch. Male costars Justin Timberlake and Jim Belushi appear to be non-factors.
Bottom line: Winslet keeps her name in the mix, but other categories seem less likely now than they did yesterday.
It’s Thursday and that means a fresh round of my weekly Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Some thoughts from the past week:
I can’t help but wonder if the disappointing box office performance of Blade Runner 2049 will hurt its chances at nominations for Picture and Director. It certainly doesn’t help. I had the film and director Denis Villeneuve getting in last week. Today that changes, but we’ll see if it manages to rise back up in subsequent weeks.
Woody Allen’s Wonder Wheel is slated to premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight and that means reviews will be up. I have it getting nominations in Picture, Actress, and Original Screenplay right now, but lots of questions will be answered in a matter of hours.
Sean Baker’s The Florida Project seems to be garnering a lot of goodwill and for the first time, I have it taking a major jump into an actual nomination. We’ll see if that sticks.
Finally, it appears Steven Spielberg’s The Post will qualify for Original Screenplay and not Adapted as previously thought. That change has been reflected here.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. The Post (PR: 2)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)
6. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
7. Mudbound (PR: 7)
8. Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
9. The Florida Project (PR: 19)
Other Possibilities:
10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 8)
11. Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
12. Detroit (PR: 13)
13. Battle of the Sexes (PR: 11)
14. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 15)
15. Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
16. The Greatest Showman (PR: 14)
17. I, Tonya (PR: 17)
18. Downsizing (PR: 18)
19. Get Out (PR: 16)
20. All the Money in the World (PR: 21)
21. Wonderstruck (PR: 24)
22. Lady Bird (PR: 20)
23. The Big Sick (PR: 22)
24. Wind River (PR: Not Ranked)
25. Star Wars: The Last Jedi (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Goodbye Christopher Robin
Molly’s Game
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 2)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 3)
4. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
5. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 7)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 5)
8. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 8)
9. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (PR: 9)
10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (PR: 11)
12. Clint Eastwood, The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 14)
13. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)
14. Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying (PR: 12)
15. Jordan Peele, Get Out (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)
3. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)
4. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 3)
5. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)
7. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 8)
8. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 7)
9. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 11)
10. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 9)
11. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (PR: 10)
12. Jeremy Renner, Wind River (PR: 13)
13. Christian Bale, Hostiles (PR: 12)
14. Algee Smith, Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jason Clarke, Chappaquiddick (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Domhnall Gleeson, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 7)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 6)
8. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 8)
9. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (PR: 10)
11. Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project (PR: 13)
12. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (PR: 11)
13. Diane Kruger, In the Fade (PR: 12)
14. Carey Mulligan, Mudbound (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Lawrence, mother!
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)
3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)
5. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)
7. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)
8. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 8)
9. Will Poulter, Detroit (PR: 11)
10. Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. Christoph Waltz, Downsizing (PR: 13)
12. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Patrick Stewart, Logan (PR: 12)
14. Colin Farrell, The Beguiled (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jim Belushi, Wonder Wheel (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 4)
3. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)
4. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 5)
5. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 8)
8. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 6)
9. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (PR: 9)
10. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 10)
11. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (PR: 11)
12. Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck (PR: 12)
13. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Juno Temple, Wonder Wheel (PR: 13)
15. Sarah Paulson, The Post (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, Goodbye Christopher Robin
Cicely Tyson, Last Flag Flying
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 2)
2. Mudbound (PR: 3)
3. Molly’s Game (PR: 5)
4. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)
5. Wonderstruck (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Beguiled (PR: 10)
7. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 7)
8. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 6)
9. The 15:17 to Paris (PR: 12)
10. All the Money in the World (PR: 9)
11. The Disaster Artist (PR: 11)
12. Stronger (PR: 13)
13. The Death of Stalin (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Thank You for Your Service (PR: 15)
15. Wonder (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
The Post (moved to Original Screenplay)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)
2. The Post (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Adapted Screenplay)
3. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)
4. Wonder Wheel (PR: 4)
5. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Florida Project (PR: 11)
7. The Big Sick (PR: 5)
8. Get Out (PR: 6)
9. Lady Bird (PR: 9)
10. Dunkirk (PR: 7)
11. I, Tonya (PR: 8)
12. Downsizing (PR: 12)
13. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)
14. Wind River (PR: 14)
15. Detroit (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Greatest Showman
And there you have it! I’ll be back at it next Thursday with fresh predictions…
Next weekend we will find out if Geostorm is a direct hit or disaster at the box office… or somewhere in the middle. The disaster pic marks the directorial debut of Dean Devlin, known most for producing efforts from Roland Emmerich, including Stargate,Independence Day and its sequel, and 1998’s Godzilla. Gerard Butler headlines a cast that features Ed Harris, Abbie Cornish, Jim Sturgess, Andy Garcia, and Richard Schiff.
The film was originally scheduled by Warner Bros for release over a year and a half ago. That kind of delay usually doesn’t inspire confidence. There are also movies debuting against it that could siphon some audience away, including Only the Brave and The Snowman.
I’ll predict Geostorm doesn’t even reach the teens for a muted start.
Geostorm opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (10/18/17): I am revising my prediction for The Snowman from $10.8 million down to $8 million
Next weekend, Universal Pictures will find out whether The Snowman gets a hot or icy reception at the box office. The thriller is based on a bestseller and stars Michael Fassbender as a detective chasing a serial killer who goes by the title. Tomas Alfredson, maker of critically acclaimed pics Let the Right One In and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, directs. The supporting cast includes Rebecca Ferguson, Charlotte Gainsbourg, J.K. Simmons, Toby Jones, Chloe Sevigny, James D’Arcy, and Val Kilmer.
While the director’s previous efforts have met with critical approval, reviews for this aren’t so good. It stands at just 27% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Additionally, there are other pics opening directly against it that could compete for an adult crowd like Only the Brave and Geostorm.
The marketing has attempted to stress a horror vibe, so it’s only hope could be genre fans coming out. That said, I’ll estimate this just manages to reach double digits for a rather cold opening.
The Snowman opening weekend prediction: $8 million
For my Boo 2! A Madea Halloween prediction, click here:
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