Month: May 2017

Baywatch Box Office Prediction

Will audiences be ready for Baywatch when it debuts over Memorial Day weekend?

The action/comedy is, of course, a reboot of the 90s TV show that ruled the syndication waves and improbably became one of the biggest programs across the world. This version of Baywatch has more intentional humor and it’s R rated. Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron headline with Alexandra Daddario and Priyanka Chopra costarring. Seth Gordon, director of Horrible Bosses and Identity Thief, is behind the camera. And, yes, David Hasselhoff and Pamela Anderson are said to cameo.

Last month, Paramount moved the release date from Friday to Thursday so my estimate here is for its five-day haul over the holiday frame. Besides the brand familiarity, Baywatch‘s biggest asset is Johnson, who’s had a stellar track record as of late (he’s also been garnering publicity for apparent political aspirations in the future).

The studio is clearly going for a Jump Street vibe here. This would be fortunate to make the $57 million accomplished by 22 Jump Street in its first five days. I don’t think it will get there. Some moviegoers may be inclined to check out Jack Sparrow and the buzz here feels less substantial than for the Channing Tatum/Jonah Hill series.

I’ll predict Baywatch hits high 30s to low 40s for a second place showing behind Pirates.

Baywatch opening weekend prediction: $39.4 million (Thursday to Monday prediction)

For my Pirates of the Caribbean, Dead Men Tell No Tales prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/pirates-of-the-caribbean-dead-men-tell-no-tales-box-office-prediction/

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Box Office Prediction

After a six-year hiatus, Jack Sparrow and company return Memorial Day weekend in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. The Disney property represents the fifth pic in the 14 year-old franchise with Johnny Depp returning in the role that made him a global box office superpower (at least for a while). Joachim Ronning and Espen Sandberg are new directors to the series. Costars include Javier Bardem, Geoffrey Rush, Brenton Thwaites, and apparently Orlando Bloom and Keira Knightley reprising their roles (they sat out the fourth edition). Even Paul McCartney is said to have a cameo!

While Disney has been printing money with their Star Wars, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Pixar, and live-action animated reboots, Pirates is more of a risk. First, there’s the massive reported $320 million price tag. Then there’s the matter of Depp not being the draw he once was (tabloid fodder hasn’t helped much). It was just during the last Memorial Day weekend that the Depp/Disney combo resulted in the flop of Alice Through the Looking Glass. 

And there’s genuine curiosity as to whether the franchise has run low on steam. Let’s take a trip down Sparrow’s box office memory lane, shall we?

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003)

Opening Weekend: $46.6 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $305.4 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006)

Opening Weekend: $135.6 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $423.3 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (2007)

Opening Weekend: $114.7 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $309.4 million

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

Opening Weekend: $90.1 million; Overall Domestic Gross: $241 million

As you can see, the Pirates saga hit its high mark over a decade ago and the last entry in 2011 posted the lowest total domestic earnings. I believe the days of Pirates making $100 million in a weekend are over. Even though it shouldn’t have much trouble at all placing first over the holiday weekend, I’ll predict a four-day gross in the high 70s to low 80s is most likely.

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales opening weekend prediction: $78.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)

For my Baywatch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/18/baywatch-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 19-21

Summer 2017 keeps rolling along as three new titles populate the marketplace this weekend. They are Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant (the sixth film in the nearly 40 year-old franchise), Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul (the fourth film in the seven year-old franchise), and YA romance Everything, Everything. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Covenant should manage a mid 40s debut. That’s under what its direct predecessor Prometheus accomplished five years ago, but it should be good enough to nab the #1 spot from Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. The Marvel hit should end its two-week reign atop the charts.

I’m predicting a third place showing for Everything, Everything with Snatched nabbing fourth in its sophomore frame and Wimpy Kid rounding out the top five. As for King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, it should plummet out of the top five in its second weekend after a terrible debut (more on that below).

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Alien: Covenant

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $32.2 million (representing a drop of 50%)

3. Everything, Everything

Predicted Gross: $12.3 million

4. Snatched 

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul 

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

Box Office Results (May 12-14) 

As expected, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 easily dominated the box office in weekend #2 with $65.2 million, right in line with my $64.3M projection. The sequel has grossed $248 million thus far.

The Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy did just OK in second place with $19.5 million, a bit shy of my $21.1M estimate. Not a bad opening for a $42 million budget, but this is well below the $30M achieved by Schumer’s Trainwreck two summers ago.

It took until the second weekend of summer to have a flop of epic proportions and that honor belongs to King Arthur: Legend of the Sword. The Guy Ritchie pic took in an embarrassing $15.3 million, well under my $24.4M prediction. Considering its reported $175 million budget, Warner Bros looks to lose a lot of cash on this ill-advised investment.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6. The Fate of the Furious was fourth with $5.4 million (I said $5.7M) for a $215M total. I incorrectly had The Boss Baby in fifth, but it was sixth with $4.4 million (I said $4.9M) for an overall tally of $162M. Instead, Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $4.8 million to bring its massive cume to $494M. It is currently the 8th highest domestic earner of all time.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Fifty Shades Darker Movie Review

There’s a scene towards the end of Fifty Shades Darker where we find ourselves in Christian Grey’s childhood bedroom. He is engaged in deep conversation with Anastasia Steele. Instead of giving anywhere near a damn about what they were discussing, I found myself distracted by the movie poster in his room: The Chronicles of Riddick starring Vin Diesel.

For the next couple of minutes, my mind wandered to the following questions: What made the set designers pick that 2004 sci-fi flick? What made them deduce that their lead character with a penchant for dominance and sadism would choose that film over any other? I thought about what age Christian would have been when it was released. 17 maybe? Here’s a guy, even as a youngster, that could have bought any movie poster, yet he chose The Chronicles of Riddick. Then I realized the fact that I was preoccupied with this minor piece of set decoration said a lot. I didn’t really care about anything else in that bedroom and or anyone in it.

Fifty Shades Darker is the sequel to 2015’s smash hit Fifty Shades of Grey and continues the saga of that man with the Riddick poster (Jamie Dornan) and book editor Anastasia (Dakota Johnson). Their romance was originated in a series of wildly popular E.L. James novels. As I opined in my one star review of Grey, I tried my best to understand its mass appeal to viewers and readers, but just couldn’t get there. Yet here we are again. When we last left the lovers, they had broken up because Anastasia just couldn’t quite get there with Christian’s kinky preferences. It takes about ten minutes of screen time for her to inexplicably change her mind and they’re back at it.

Part two does bring some new dynamics and characters into the fold. Anastasia’s new boss (Eric Johnson) wants more than her editing services. Christian’s sexual mentor (Kim Basinger) keeps popping up, as does a former lover (Bella Heathcote) who’s still subservient to her former master. These subplots lead to jealousy on both ends. There’s also a bit of exploration of Christian’s troubled childhood. All of these items seem like wind up to whatever the inevitable third picture will bring. There’s no pay off.

Instead we get a whole lot of conversations between our two leads and two underwhelming actors playing them. More than anything, the Fifty Shades series rises and falls with the chemistry of Dornan and Johnson. Once again, its mostly non-existent. The franchise’s selling point is the sex scenes and even they’re nothing more than what you’d see on cable after dark.

That said, I’m awarding Fifty Shades Darker a whole half star more than Grey. Why? Good question. Johnson’s acting is probably a half star better. There is perhaps a half star’s worthy more plot developments than in the first. Or maybe the Riddick poster distraction put me in a better mood. Who knows? The more likely reasoning is I’ve become more numb to the pain this unfortunate series has inflicted on me.

*1/2 (out of four)

Everything, Everything Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros. is out with a new YA flick based on a book next weekend when Everything, Everything debuts. The romance casts Amandla Stenberg (best known as Rue from The Hunger Games) who suffers from SCID, also known as “Bubble Baby Disease”. The aforementioned romantic plot involves Nick Robinson (best known as the older brother in Jurassic World). Stella Meghie directs this adaptation of Nicola Yoon’s debut novel.

I wouldn’t expect anything near The Fault in Our Stars numbers here. That said, previous genre entries have a habit of hitting double digits. Everything is out in 2800 theaters and I think it stands a fair shot at outperforming Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, which is obviously going for an even younger demographic.

I’ll predict this does manage to top $10M for a third place showing this weekend.

Everything, Everything opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my Alien: Covenant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

The Autopsy of Jane Doe Movie Review

Andre Ovredal’s The Autopsy of Jane Doe is a brisk and largely effective experience that focuses on a profession not often explored in the movies: morticians. They’re the father and son team of Tommy (Brian Cox) and Austin Tilden (Emile Hirsch), Virginia coroners given an unusual late night assignment.

The title character has been delivered to them after being discovered at a grisly homicide scene. Jane Doe (Olwen Catherine Kelly) is a beautiful twenty something found in the basement of a house where the crime occurred. The other victims are marked with the bloody injuries you’d come to expect. Her corpse is in pristine condition.

As the duo pry away at her body, the cause of her demise becomes even more confounding. What’s inside of Jane Doe can’t explain her outward appearance. The Tildens begin to question who or what they have lying on the slab. And that’s when the supernatural elements kick in.

The screenplay doesn’t dwell much on character development or backstory. There is a couple minutes on Tildens family history that’s not really necessary, but it’s thankfully brief. What is dwelled upon is close ups of Jane’s cold gray eyes and other cut open features. You begin to wonder when and if those eyes will blink or move. In many ways, it is Kelly’s performance that’s the most expressive and she never utters a word.

The screenplay succeeds at turning Cox and Hirsch into amateur sleuths as they go about their assignment. Cox’s Tommy is the veteran who thought he’d seen it all while Hirsch’s Austin is still his apprentice in the nearly 100 year old family business. This is a different and often original kind of detective story before the scare tactics take over the second half.

It’s the first half that succeeds the best as we wonder where this is all leading. Once we’re clued in, the explanation makes some sense (not always the case in this genre). The Autopsy of Jane Doe is also sensible in being quick and efficient with enough suspense to keep horror enthusiasts happy.

*** (out of four)

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul Box Office Prediction

The fourth film in a franchise that’s been dormant for half a decade, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul debuts in theaters next weekend. The family comedy features an all-new cast from the three previous entries, but returns David Bowers, who directed the last two Wimpy sagas. That new cast includes Jason Drucker, Alicia Silverstone, and Tom Everett Scott.

Based upon a series of popular kids books penned by Jeff Kinney, The Long Haul has experienced the aforementioned long layoff between projects. Let’s take a trip down Wimpy Kid‘s box office memory lane, shall we?

Diary of a Wimpy Kid (2010) – $22 million opening, $64 million overall domestic gross

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules (2011) – $23 million opening, $52 million overall domestic gross

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days (2012) – $14 million opening, $49 million overall domestic gross

Pretty decent numbers for the 20th Century Fox series, but you can see its stateside hauls decreased with each picture. The five-year gap won’t help, as many of the kids who flocked to see the first three are older now.

I’ll predict this opens to a sub double digits gross and likely ends up as the lowest grosser of the franchise thus far.

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7PLDbPPL7w

For my Alien: Covenant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/10/alien-covenant-box-office-prediction/

For my Everything, Everything prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

Alien: Covenant Box Office Prediction

Five years after director Ridley Scott returned to the franchise that got his career going, he’s back behind the camera again for Alien: Covenant next weekend. This is the sixth installment in the series that Scott began 38 years ago with the beloved Alien. 

That love did not quite extend to 2012’s Prometheus, which drew mixed audience and critical response. Michael Fassbender returns as android Walter with a cast including Katherine Waterston, Billy Crudup, Danny McBride, Demian Bichir, reported return appearances from Noomi Repace and Guy Pearce, and James Franco apparently.

Five years ago, Prometheus opened to $51 million but its so-so buzz meant a front loaded overall gross of $126M. Reviews for Covenant have been mostly solid and it stands at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes. One encouraging sign: several critics have noted this gets the franchise back to its horror roots unlike its predecessor.

It’s also said to be a direct sequel to Prometheus and one wonders if the bad taste it left in some mouths will prevent this from topping it. I’ll predict Covenant does not reach the $50M+ achieved half a decade ago and that mid 40s seems more feasible.

Alien: Covenant opening weekend prediction: $44.6 million

For my Diary of a Wimpy Kid, The Long Haul prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/11/diary-of-a-wimpy-kid-the-long-haul-box-office-prediction/

For my Everything, Everything prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/12/everything-everything-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 12-14

We have now entered the second weekend of summer 2017 at the box office and there’s two high-profile releases opening wide. They are: Guy Ritchie directed retelling of King Arthur: Legend of the Sword and Amy Schumer/Goldie Hawn comedy Snatched. 

You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/03/king-arthur-legend-of-the-sword-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/05/03/snatched-box-office-prediction/

One things seems certain and it’s that neither of these newcomers will come close to dislodging Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 from a sophomore weekend on top (more on its opening below).

The real competition will indeed be for the runner-up spot. I expect a close race for the #2 spot, with Arthur managing to edge out Snatched. 

The rest of the top five should be filled by spring holdovers The Fate of the Furious and The Boss Baby.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Predicted Gross: $64.3 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. King Arthur: Legend of the Sword

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

3. Snatched

Predicted Gross: $21.1 million

4. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 18%)

Box Office Results (May 5-7)

The summer season got off to a solid start as Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 debuted to $146.5 million. That’s good for the 17th largest domestic opening of all time. The Marvel/Disney sequel met, but did not exceed expectations, including my own. I had it pegged higher at $166.4M. Even though my estimate was nearly $20 million higher, this premiere still ensures more of Star-Lord and a growing Groot in the future.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five as nothing else dared open wide against the Guardians. In second was The Fate of the Furious with $8.5 million (I said $7.7M) for an overall gross of $207M.

The Boss Baby was third with $5.9 million (a bit above my $4.8M prediction) for a $156M total.

How to Be a Latin Lover, despite a significant screen expansion, dropped pretty hard to fourth with $5.1 million (below my $6.9M forecast) for a $20M total.

Beauty and the Beast rounded out the top five with $5 million (I said $4.7M) to bring its haul to $487M.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZEQzg5VkcU

Movie Perfection: A Shagadelic Therapy Session

“In the spring, we’d make meat helmets.” – Dr. Evil

In this week’s example of “Where has the time gone?”, Austin Powers: International Man of Mystery celebrated its 20 year anniversary. In May of 1997, this creation of Mike Myers wasn’t expected to be the cultural milestone it turned out to be and spawn endless catchphrases. The SNL alum had not capitalized on the wild success five years earlier of Wayne’s World. Myers experienced two box office disappointments in his follow-ups – So I Married An Axe Murderer (which would achieve minor cult status later) and the Wayne’s World sequel.

Not much was expected from Powers, but the James Bond spoof immediately achieved its cult status and over performed expectations by grossing $53 million domestically. That was a pleasing number, but not a total runaway hit. It took home video to expand its audience and expand its audience it did. By the time Austin Powers: The Spy Who Shagged Me was released two summers later, it made $54 million… in its first weekend. Goldmember, the third installment, would make $73 million out of the gate in 2002.

Yet it’s the original from two decades past that remains the best. And in this edition of Movie Perfection, I focus on what was my favorite scene 20 years ago and remains so today. That would be the therapy session between Myers’ Dr. Evil and his son Scott (Seth Green).

This sequence finds the late Carrie Fisher as a shrink offering advice to fathers and their teenage boys. The group quickly finds the bald mastermind and nemesis of the title character has the strangest relationship with his estranged offspring. Dr. Evil is, in fact, actually trying to kill him. And Scott’s aspirations of working with animals doesn’t gel with Dad’s idea of it.

The entire scene is hilarious but it builds to an epic climax with Dr. Evil’s description of his own bizarre childhood. Burlap bags, luge lessons, webbed feet, and the laziness of chestnuts are all incorporated into an uproarious monologue that solidifies why Dr. Evil was always the greatest character in the franchise.

Carrie Fisher is pitch perfect in her cameo. It’s crazy to think her work here arrived almost exactly 20 years after her first appearance as Princess Leia and now it’s been 20 years since her participation in this fantastic sequence.

So, as we celebrate two decades since this memorable series, today’s Movie Perfection honors its best scene.