The Lost City of Z Box Office Prediction

James Gray’s The Lost City of Z opens in semi wide release this weekend after a pretty impressive debut in very limited fashion over Easter weekend. The pic tells the true story of explorer Percy Fawcett (Charlie Hunnam) in the Amazon in the early 20th century. Costars include Robert Pattinson, Sienna Miller, and Tom Holland.

closed the New York Film Festival last fall to positive word of mouth and it stands at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. It grossed over $100,000 on just 4 screens this last weekend and is slated to expand to approximately 500 on Friday.

I believe this could perform similarly to The Place Beyond the Pines four years ago. Though there’s no obvious comparison between the two titles, both appeal to a more adult audience and received encouraging critical reaction. Pines made $3.8 million when it hit around 500 theaters. If accomplishes the same, that means I have it out doing The Promise, Phoenix Forgotten, and Free Fire in their debuts.

The Lost City of Z opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

Born in China Box Office Prediction

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

The Promise Box Office Prediction

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

 

Free Fire Box Office Prediction

This Friday, British action-comedy Free Fire hits theaters stateside after it’s already premiered in the U.K. Ben Wheatley’s effort debuted last fall at the Toronto Film Festival to decent buzz and it stands at 81% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Oscar winner Brie Larson (fresh off Kong: Skull Island) headlines along with Sharlto Copley, Armie Hammer, Cillian Murphy, and Jack Reynor.

While the pic may garner some interest from fanboys based on its mostly positive word of mouth, the marketing campaign for Free Fire has been minimal. I don’t yet have a theater count for it, which makes this prediction a little tough (and I could revise it when that count is revealed).

Regardless, I see a low opening here and it’s best hope is likely gaining a cult following once it’s release for home viewing.

Free Fire opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Phoenix Forgotten Box Office Prediction

It’s being described as The Blair Witch Project, but with aliens. Phoenix Forgotten debuts in approximately 1500 theaters this Friday and it tells the true life story of strange lights that appeared over the title city some 20 years ago.

The found footage horror flick has a cast of unknowns. In fact, the biggest name involved is producer Ridley Scott, who’s clearly in extraterrestrial mode as his Alien: Covenant hits theaters next month.

Expectations for Forgotten are considerably lower. The pic has received little fanfare or buzz and I expect a very forgetful debut. It may even hold the unfortunate designation of having the lowest opening of any of the six titles hitting theaters in wide release or semi wide release this weekend, though I’ll say Free Fire and possibly The Lost City of Z get below it. And who knows? Maybe The Promise as well… this weekend is tough!

Phoenix Forgotten opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

The Promise Box Office Prediction

Next weekend, The Promise will attempt to bring in adult moviegoers but could face a serious uphill battle. From Hotel Rwanda director Terry George, the film is a love triangle set during the Armenian genocide in the early 20th Century. Christian Bale, Oscar Isaac, and Charlotte Le Bon make up aforementioned triangle.

The pic was once looked at as a potential Oscar hopeful before it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last fall. Reviews haven’t been too kind and it stands at only 31% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.

Surprisingly, The Promise is slated to debut on around 2000 screens so Open Road Films must think it could do OK. Even with the participation of Bale and Isaac, I foresee a very weak premiere.

The Promise opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my Born in China, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Prince: Deep Cuts 2

Continuing on with a series of blog post that began yesterday as I celebrate the life and work of Prince, here are five more deeper cuts from the artist’s extensive catalog for your listening enjoyment! Oh what the heck? I threw in a bonus one…

“All My Dreams”

“Beginning Endlessly”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7_nUGXXEW0

“Desire”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4nWKUHJ3oM

“Let’s Have a Baby”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcDTlYhkQM4

“Purple Music”

“Ripopgodazippa”

Born in China Box Office Prediction

The DisneyNature division of the Mouse Factory brings us the documentary Born in China next weekend. This is the seventh feature that the studio has timed to Earth Day focusing on nature and animals. Pandas and monkeys are the general subject in this case.

Narrated by John Krasinski, the Chinese version has already been released. The grosses of the six previous pictures have performed as follows:

Earth (2009) – $8.8 million debut

Oceans (2010) – $6 million

African Cats (2011) – $6 million

Chimpanzee (2012) – $10.6 million

Bears (2014) – $4.7 million

Monkey Kingdom (2015) – $4.5 million

As you can see, the opening weekends for the last pics have been the lowest of the bunch thus far. I suspect Born in China may fall in the same ballpark and I’ll put it just past $5M (people love pandas!).

Born in China opening weekend prediction: $5.2 million

For my Unforgettable prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/unforgettable-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Unforgettable Box Office Prediction

There’s a fatal attraction going on in theaters next weekend as Unforgettable debuts. The thriller stars Katherine Heigl as an ex-wife terrorizing her husband’s new bride (Rosario Dawson). Geoff Stults and Cheryl Ladd costar.

Heigl burst onto the movie scene nearly 10 years ago with mega-hit comedy Knocked Up and proceeded to headline other successful rom coms like 27 Dresses and The Ugly Truth. Since then, her star has been on the wane with lower performing pics and failed TV projects.

Unforgettable stands a shot at being a minor success. These Lifetime type flicks on the big screen have a track record of faring decently. The Boy Next Door with Jennifer Lopez debuted to nearly $15 million. Screen Gems has even slotted a mid September weekend for the past three years with such material and the results have been pleasing: 2014’s No Good Deed ($24.2M opening), The Perfect Guy ($25.8M), and When the Bough Breaks ($14.2M).

If enough females turn out for this, I could envision a premiere in the low double digits/teens to possibly mid teens (that could be stretching it).

Unforgettable opening weekend prediction: $12.9 million

For my Born in China prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/12/born-in-china-box-office-prediction/

For my The Promise prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/14/the-promise-box-office-prediction/

For my Phoenix Forgotten prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/phoenix-forgotten-box-office-prediction/

For my Free Fire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/free-fire-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lost City of Z prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/17/the-lost-city-of-z-box-office-prediction/

Prince: Deep Cuts 1

For the next day 10 days, my little movie blog is going be celebrating the world of music much more than normal. In particular, a certain artist named Prince Rogers Nelson. April 21st will mark one year since his passing.

Those who know me know that Prince is my favorite musician and is so by a mile. I saw the man 14 times in concert, am very familiar with his entire discography, and look at him as an inspiration of being uniquely yourself in life.

I don’t know what all content will be generated over the next few days on the blog as I reflect on his life and work, but I began today by simply giving you five deeper Prince cuts. These are either unreleased tracks or songs from albums that didn’t receive as much attention.

Enjoy!

“In a Large Room With No Light”

“When I Lay My Hands on U”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8xWeZRFvSuU

“Wouldn’t You Love to Love Me”

“Love Sign”

“Wasted Kisses”

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HEJPvss7ddY

There will be plenty more in the coming days!

 

 

 

 

 

Kong: Skull Island Movie Review

Some stuff is considerably bigger and louder in the newest iteration of the 84 year-old franchise featuring cinema’s most famous plus sized ape. The sound effects are turned up to a higher volume. Since it’s set in the mid 70s, the fashion is louder. The cast of characters we have to keep track of is more populous and filled with familiar faces. And King Kong, himself, is quite bigger. He’s the size of a building this time around. What’s not larger is the running time and that’s a good thing. It was something that hindered Peter Jackson’s lovingly constructed remake of the 1933 classic in 2005. That version ran three hours plus, which was about an hour too long. Kong: Skull Island gets the running time right (two hours) and it gets other things right, too.

I liked the fact that our title character is truly monstrous in size this time around. I enjoyed that it’s set in the Watergate era right as the Vietnam War is winding down. I appreciated the sense of humor and B movie escapism that this Kong often gleefully exudes. Yet when the credits rolled, I couldn’t shake a feeling that the idea of Kong: Skull Island was cooler than the overall execution.

The pic opens with a prologue during World War II where an American and Japanese fighter pilot crash-land on a deserted island. Confronting one another, they mistakenly believe they must only fight each other for survival. Turns out there’s another inhabitant hanging around and he’s about the size of a building.

Flash forward to 1973. John Goodman is Bill Randa, who works for a government agency called Monarch. He’s seen as a crackpot with wild conspiracy theories and one of them involves Skull Island, a remote South Pacific island. Bill convinces his higher-ups to fund a mission to the location and he takes along a whole crew of military guys. They include Colonel Packard (Samuel L. Jackson), who’s looking for any action as the Vietnam War is closing out. There’s also British Captain Conrad (Tom Hiddleston), who’s charged with navigating through this unknown jungle terrain. Brie Larson is Mason, an anti-war photojournalist fresh from the war and she’s there to document Skull Island. I could continue listing the supporting players. There are lots of them and few of them are very interesting. This is not a screenplay where the human beings are given preferential treatment.

When the team reaches their destination, they discover they are not alone. Kong is there, of course, but so are the island’s natives and that American WWII fighter pilot who is now John C. Reilly with a beard that rivals what David Letterman looks like now. There’s other creatures, too. “Skullcrawlers”, as Reilly coined them because it sounded cool, are reptile like menaces that are the real villains around these parts. That doesn’t matter to Colonel Packard, however, as he’s determined to wipe out Kong for protecting his territory and destroying some of the Colonel’s men along the way.

While 2005’s overstuffed King Kong attempted to be a five-course meal in the giant ape’s filmography, Skull Island is junk food. It mostly knows it is. Many of the actors involved (some fun overacting by Reilly and Jackson) know it is. Director Jordan Vogt-Roberts allows moments where the kitschy 70s vibe provides some smiles (watch that Richard Nixon bobblehead shaking during some helicopter escapades). The special effects are, as expected, state of the art. Having said that, I didn’t really feel the Kong we see here is much more impressive than the 2005 version, even though he’s much more ginormous.

The film may have been more effective had it not introduced so many humans and their threadbare subplots and focused instead on – say – three or four of them. Better yet, the focus could have been on the mutated animals and their battle royales. After all, the point of this picture is to eventually produce a King Kong vs. Godzilla extravaganza. In that sense, the 2014 Godzilla reboot directed by Gareth Edwards was a more satisfying appetizer while Kong is a bit less filling.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: April 14-16

It’s Easter Weekend and it’s sure to be dominated by the release of The Fate of the Furious, the eighth picture in the blockbuster franchise. We also have the wide release of Gifted, a drama with Chris Evans  and Octavia Spencer that expands to 1000 screens on Friday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/05/the-fate-of-the-furious-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/04/09/gifted-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Fate would give it the second largest debut of the franchise and second biggest April bow of all time… both behind 2015’s Furious 7. 

The real battle could be for the #2 slot between hit holdovers The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast. I anticipate a razor thin margin between those titles.

Last weekend’s new releases Smurfs: The Lost Village (which suffered a lackluster opening) and Going in Style should round out the top five, in what could be a potentially close race itself.

As for Gifted, it had a decent roll out in limited release this past weekend and my forecast for it would put it in sixth place.

Holdovers should dominate the remainder of the top 5.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for the holiday frame:

1. The Fate of the Furious

Predicted Gross: $122.7 million

2. The Boss Baby

Predicted Gross: $15 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Beauty and the Beast

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)

4. Smurfs: The Lost Village

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Going in Style

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 40%)

6. Gifted

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (April 7-9)

The Boss Baby was tops for the second weekend in a row with $26.3 million. This is right on target with my $26.1M prognosis and the Dreamworks animated tale has made $89 million at press time.

Beauty and the Beast was second with $23.6 million, in line with my $24M estimate. The Disney smash stands at $430 million currently with $500M in its sights.

Smurfs: The Lost Village couldn’t break through with family audiences in its third place debut. The third flick in the franchise (and the first that’s totally animated) grossed just $13.2 million (I went higher with $20.4M).

The geriatric comedy Going in Style had an OK fourth place premiere with $11.9 million. I was close with $11.5M. The Morgan Freeman/Michael Caine pic will hope older crowds cause it to hold up well in subsequent weekends.

Ghost in the Shell was fifth with $7.3 million (I said $7.9M) to brings its unimpressive tally to just $31 million.

Finally, faith-based drama The Case for Christ made a decent case for itself with $3.9 million, just above my $3.4M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…