TheGirlontheTrain isn’t skillfully made enough to realize its own trashiness. This differs greatly from David Fincher’s GoneGirl, which embraced its pulpy source material and had lots of fun with it. Based on a huge bestseller by Paula Hawkins, Train takes itself too seriously to be the guilty pleasure it ought to be. That’s a shame because Emily Blunt’s central performance continues her fine work rolling along.
She plays Rachel, a divorced alcoholic who spends the bulk of her time on the titled mode of transportation. Her boozy travels send her past her old home, where her ex (Justin Theroux) lives with his new wife and old mistress (Rebecca Ferguson) and baby. It is two houses down, however, where Rachel’s chemically imbalanced imagination is running wild. This is where Megan (Haley Bennett) and her husband Scott (Luke Evans) reside and the passenger watching them envisions their relationship to be the one she pines for. Of course, there’s far more beneath the surface and that goes for all the characters involved.
When Rachel realizes there’s more to the facade she’s conjured for the couple, it leads to a mystery and a disappearance that involves Allison Janney’s detective. It leads to questioning Rachel’s whereabouts on a typical blackout drunken evening. I suppose, too, it eventually leads to a twist that is one you’re likely to pick up on earlier than you should. Whether this is designed that way is something I don’t know, but it’s a flaw nonetheless.
Our title character’s abuse of her own body and mind and other abuses I won’t reveal gives Blunt a chance to shine. Her performance is really the only one worthy of note, though Bennett does have a couple moments of her own. The story is told in a flashback style that gives all the women some backlog, but it’s Rachel who merits our attention. If only director Tate Taylor didn’t seem intent on pushing a dour vibe instead of recognizing this is vacation paperback material, this could’ve worked better. Blunt almost makes it worth the trip, but not quite.
This Sunday evening, the Golden Globes (perhaps the most significant Oscar precursor) airs with Jimmy Fallon hosting. Unlike the Academy Awards, the Globes divide both Picture and the Lead Acting races in two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy.
Here’s how I have each race playing out with the winners predicted. As a side note, I decided to not do my weekly Oscar predictions yesterday and will have an updated post on Thursday next week!
With that, let’s get to the races…
Best Drama
The Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: Not an easy prediction as this will probably boil down to Moonlight and Manchester, with both Hacksaw and Lion being potential spoilers (Water is only pic I see as having no shot). The winner of this category will likely vault into a two-way race with La La Land as to what comes out on top at Oscar time.
Best Musical/Comedy
The Nominees: 20th Century Women, Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, La La Land, Sing Street
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: It would be pretty shocking if Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood musicals didn’t win here. I suppose perhaps Jenkins has a dark horse shot, but this is the easiest pick of the bunch to make.
Best Director
The Nominees: Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Analysis: Jenkins has racked up a slew of precursors and a win for Gibson would be seen as completing a remarkable comeback after multiple personal issues. However, at the end of the day, I believe the La La love will extend to its director.
Best Actor (Drama)
The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Joel Edgerton (Loving), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), Denzel Washington (Fences).
Todd’s Prediction: Casey Affleck
Analysis: Like the Oscar race, this looks to be between Affleck and Washington. I’ll give the former the slight edge as he’s won more precursors and Manchester itself was nominated for Picture, whereas Fences was not.
Analysis: While I wouldn’t totally rule out an Adams or Huppert win, Portman has the edge in her acclaimed role of Mrs. Kennedy.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Colin Farrell (The Lobster), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins), Jonah Hill (War Dogs), Ryan Reynolds (Deadpool)
Todd’s Prediction: Hugh Grant
Analysis: Conventional wisdom would point to a Gosling win, but I believe the Hollywood Foreign Press will provide a bit of an upset here and honor Grant. Also – don’t be too shocked if Reynolds manages to surprise.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
The Nominees: Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Lily Collins (Rules Don’t Apply), Hailee Steinfeld (The Edge of Seventeen), Emma Stone (La La Land), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Todd’s Prediction: Emma Stone
Analysis: Bening and Streep are long shots, but it would be a rather large upset if Stone didn’t emerge victorious here.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins), Dev Patel (Lion), Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Todd’s Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Analysis: Bridges or Patel are feasible, but Ali has received the bulk of precursor awards and I believe that will continue here.
Best Supporing Actress
The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Todd’s Prediction: Viola Davis
Analysis: Davis is the clear front runner here and at the Oscars. An upset win (possible for any of these actresses other than Spencer) could dispel that notion, but it probably won’t occur.
Best Screenplay
The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, Nocturnal Animals
Todd’s Prediction: Moonlight
Analysis: La La and Manchester are in the mix here, but this is probably where Barry Jenkins will get his win and not for direction.
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Arrival, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight
Todd’s Prediction: La La Land
Analysis: Tough one and it’s not out of the question to envision any of them winning. I’ll just go La La and see what happens.
Best Original Song
The Nominees: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” from Trolls, “City of Stars” from La La Land, “Faith” from Sing, “Gold” from Gold, “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
Todd’s Prediction: “City of Stars”
Analysis: There’s some real heavy hitters here: Justin Timberlake, Lin-Manuel Miranda, and Stevie Wonder with nominations. Yet I think the HFPA honors La La once again.
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, Sing, Zootopia
Todd’s Prediction: Zootopia
Analysis: Kubo has a shot and you can never dismiss Disney with Moana. However, there’s another acclaimed Mouse Factory title in the mix and I believe Zootopia gets in.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Divines, Elle, Neruda, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann
Todd’s Prediction: Toni Erdmann
Analysis: Elle could absolutely win here (and perhaps The Salesman), but I’ll go with Academy favorite Erdmann.
And that does it, folks! I’ll have a post up Sunday night letting you know how well (or poorly) I did. Until then…
Horror fans get their first taste of the genre in 2017 as The Bye Bye Man hits theaters next weekend. The low-budget flick finds a group of college students tormented by the title character (Doug Jones). Costars include Douglas Smith, Cressida Bonas, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Faye Dunaway.
Made for just $6 million, Bye Bye is likely to turn a profit no matter what. Scary movies are notoriously tough to predict (they over perform more often than not), yet I’m not sure this will conjure up much business. It could perform similarly to last January’s The Boy, which opened to $10.8M. Bye Bye will have the four-day MLK weekend to try and reach double digits, but I’ll predict it falls just short of that (still managing to easily top its price tag out of the gate).
The Bye Bye Man opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
Blogger’s Update: Silence prediction being revised down based on reported theater count on just 750 screens.
One of Martin Scorsese’s passion projects finally rolls out in wide release next weekend when Silence debuts. The historical epic was shot entirely in Taiwan and tells the story of two Jesuit priests in Japan during the 17th century. Andrew Garfield (fresh off his well received turn in Hacksaw Ridge), Adam Driver, Liam Neeson, Ciaran Hinds, and Issey Ogata (garnering some Oscar chatter) star.
Speaking of Oscar chatter, Silence has been the subject of it. However, its inclusion in the Best Picture race is not assured. If that chatter had been louder, it may have helped box office performance. Additionally, the pic is debuting on a packed weekend in which there’s plenty of other adult fare competing for attention, including Patriots Day and Live by Night.
The best hope for Silence may be a host of Academy Awards nods that will be announced nearly two weeks after its release. That could propel it to steady grosses over awards season. As for its opening, I believe low to mid single digits is the likely scenario.
Paramount Pictures may have an enormous flop on their hands when MonsterTrucks next weekend. And that’s not just me saying that, folks. The studio itself has reportedly taken a $115 million write down on the project due to its anticipated bad performance.
Made for an inexplicable $125 million, the 3D live-action/computer animated flick is hoping to appeal to young boys who may drag their parents simply based on its title. Chris Wedge, known for animated fare such as IceAge and Robots, directs. The cast includes Lucas Till, Jane Levy, Amy Ryan, Rob Lowe, Danny Glover, Barry Pepper, and lots of questionable looking CG based on the trailers. Trucks has been in the can for some time. It was originally scheduled to come out over a year and a half ago and then experienced multiple delays.
Coproduced by Nickelodeon Movies, the fact that a film of this budget has been relegated to a crowded January weekend tells you all you need to know. I believe Monster will just top double digits over the long MLK weekend and earn its expected status as a bomb.
MonsterTrucks opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million
Based on a 2011 French feature, Sleepless will attempt to bring audiences in when it debuts next weekend. The action thriller stars Jamie Foxx as a crooked cop embroiled in a kidnapping case. Michelle Monaghan (pulling double duty over MLK weekend with Patriots Day as well), T.I., Dermot Mulroney, David Harbour, and Gabrielle Union costar.
The Open Roads Films product could face a tough road attracting attention. For starters, competition is fierce with the aforementioned Patriots and Ben Affleck’s Live by Night looking to lure similar viewers. If it weren’t for that level of competition, my estimate here would probably be higher. There’s little doubt Sleepless will come in third among them.
Just how far in third is the real question. I don’t believe trailers and TV spots have done much to indicate this is anything more than a wait for On Demand experience. Foxx has his fans, but I suspect that will not be enough for anything other than a low double digits roll out.
Sleepless opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million
Live by Night marks Ben Affleck’s fourth time behind the camera in a directorial career that has been quite impressive thus far. The crime drama, in which he also stars, is his first effort since 2012’s Oscar winning Argo. Costars include Elle Fanning, Brendan Gleeson, Sienna Miller, Zoe Saldana, and Chris Cooper. Based on his filmography, Night was once seen as a potential awards contender around the Hollywood town. Yet since its critical screenings, that notion appears to be gone, baby, gone. The pic has not garnered praise by reviewers and it currently holds a Rotten Tomatoes score of 35%.
Will that hurt its box office potency? My feeling is that it will. Like his directorial debut Gone Baby Gone (mentioned in the aforementioned bad pun), this is based on a novel by Dennis Lehane and comes with a reported $65 million budget. The chances of Night coming in below expectations could be due to more factors than mediocre reviews. It opens on a packed weekend where Patriots Day will going for a similar audience (as will Sleepless with Jamie Foxx). On the other hand, Affleck’s latest starring vehicle The Accountant exceeded expectations three months ago with an opening weekend of nearly $25 million.
So where will this land? I believe it’ll debut over the four-day MLK weekend with far less than Patriots Day (which I’ve got pegged at $23M) and in the low double digits to mid teens neighborhood.
Live by Night opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
Patriots Day, out next weekend, marks the third collaboration between Mark Wahlberg and director Peter Berg recounting real-life dramatic events. It arrives only four months after their second. In January 2014, the duo teamed up for Lone Survivor, the war tale which grossed over $37 million in its first weekend of wide release with an eventual $125M domestic haul. In September of last year, they followed up with Deepwater Horizon (recounting the BP Oil Spill). It debuted to a less impressive $20 million and overall $66M gross.
Their latest focuses on events surrounding the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing. Besides the aforementioned personnel, costars include John Goodman, J.K. Simmons, Michelle Monaghan, and Kevin Bacon. Patriots opened in limited release in December, likely in order to merit Oscar consideration (of which it’ll probably receive little). Still, reviews have been mostly strong at 78% currently on Rotten Tomatoes.
So where will this fall numbers wise compared to Wahlberg and Berg’s previous efforts? I don’t believe it will match what Survivor accomplished but suspect it could eclipse Horizon. Debuting over the four-day MLK weekend, Day stands a very good chance at posting the highest opening of the six pictures coming out. That means I have it outpacing Ben Affleck’s Live by Night, which should serve as its most direct competition.
I’ll say it manages low to mid-20s out of the gate.
Patriots Day opening weekend prediction: $23.6 million
The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful HiddenFigures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: BloodWars, and sci-fi drama AMonsterCalls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:
Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of RogueOne and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.
As for BloodWars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.
LaLaLand is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likelyoutsideofthetopten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:
1. RogueOne: AStarWarsStory
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $25.3 million
3. HiddenFigures
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
4. Underworld: BloodWars
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
6. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $9 million
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
8. Moana
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
9. WhyHim?
Predicted Gross: $6 million
10. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)
The four-day New Years weekend gave RogueOne its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.
Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.
Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.
Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.
Rounding out the top five was WhyHim? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.
In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.
Oscar favorite LaLaLand expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.
Eighth place: Assassin’sCreed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.
The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and ManchesterbytheSea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).
CollateralBeauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. OfficeChristmasParty was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.
In a way, WarDogs is a bit of a companion piece to TheBigShort. We have a director (Todd Phillips) known for humorous material making a more serious and based on true events effort about controversial policies during the Bush/Cheney era. We have a mix of dramatic and comedic actors telling the tale. However, whereas Adam McKay’s aforementioned 2014 picture was a big success, Dogs falls short.
Its failings are certainly not due to lack of an interesting story. We begin in 2005 when the Iraq conflict is at its height. While the war is dividing a nation, David (Miles Teller) is living a carefree existence in Miami as a massage therapist. His major conflict is making enough cash to support him and his pregnant girlfriend (Ana de Armas). David’s financial issues are provided a boost when he runs into his junior high best bud Efraim (Jonah Hill). He seems to be doing just fine and David soon discovers his old friend is making a killing as an arms dealer selling product to the U.S. government. Efraim soon cuts David in as a partner and their deals bring them to the Middle East, including drab Albania. It is that deal, involving selling 100 million rounds of ammo to the military, that will provide their windfall payload. It also provides all sorts of dangerous problems.
Dogs wags an understandable critical finger at the ease in which these twentysomethings with zero government or defense experience managed their exploits. As Efraim and David become richer than they ever could have envisioned, their trappings of wealth storyline feels awfully familiar. David’s relationship suffers, Efraim’s already diabolical personality grows out of control, etc… Yes, this may be a true story, but all this material felt truly well-worn.
As for performances, Hill has shown himself to be adept at both funny stuff and less funny stuff (Moneyball and TheWolfofWallStreet as the prime examples). His performance here isn’t near as effective and I couldn’t escape the notion that he seemed to be trying a bit too hard to pull off his bad guy role. Teller is a talent as well (Whiplash as prime example), but his work here is a couple notches above bland. Bradley Cooper turns up for a few minutes as a shady dealer whose character is just interesting enough that I would’ve liked to see him more.
The source material (based on a RollingStone article) should have garnered a richer experience than what Phillips gives us. WarDogs has plenty in common with TheBigShort in terms of personnel involved, but little in common with it as to lasting impression.
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