Box Office Predictions: March 18-20

Two new entries populate the multiplexes this weekend as third YA franchise entry The Divergent Series: Allegiant and faith based drama Miracles from Heaven debut. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

While I have Allegiant opening below its predecessors Divergent and Insurgent, it should still manage to end the two week dominance of Zootopia atop the charts. I have Miracles posting a solid third place showing and it could play well into Easter weekend in its sophomore frame if word of mouth is strong.

As for holdovers, Disney’s Zootopia should fall to the runner up position and keep its terrific returns coming. 10 Cloverfield Lane was a hit with the critics but only received a middling B- Cinemascore grade, so I look for its second week drop to be big. Deadpool should round out the top five.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

The Divergent Series: Allegiant

Predicted Gross: $43.7 million

2. Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Miracles from Heaven

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

4. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

5. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 35%)

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

Zootopia continued to rule the box office kingdom this weekend with an even smaller than expected drop in weekend #2. The Disney animated tale, fresh off its record setting opening frame, grossed $51.3 million (outpacing my $41.6M estimate) for a $143M total.

10 Cloverfield Lane couldn’t come to close to matching its predecessor’s $40 million premiere in 2008, but managed a respectable $24.7 million (compared to my $28.3M prognosis). Considering its reported small budget, it should turn a nice profit.

London Has Fallen was third in its sophomore weekend with $10.8 million, just above my $9.9M prediction for a ten day total of $39M.

Fourth place was massive hit Deadpool with $10.8 million (a bit higher than my prediction of $9.4M) for a four week tally of $328M.

In fifth was the Tina Fey comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot with $4.6 million for a ten day total of $14M. I incorrectly had it outside my top 6 predictions.

That’s because I grossly overestimated two newcomers. There was one exception: rom com The Perfect Match was sixth with $4.2 million. I said $4.1M. At least I was close on that one…

As for The Young Messiah and The Brothers Grimsby… not so much. The faith based drama Messiah opened in seventh at just $3.2 million, way below my generous $12.7M estimate. As for Sacha Baron Cohen’s critically reviled Grimsby, it fared even slightly worse in 8th place with $3.2 million compared to my generous $11.4M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Miracles from Heaven Box Office Prediction

Arriving the week before Easter, the Christian themed drama Miracles from Heaven is out on Wednesday and hopes to bring in a faith based audience. Based on a true story and bestselling novel by Christy Beam, Jennifer Garner stars as a mom whose young daughter suffering from a rare disorder experiences a miraculous cure. Costars include Kylie Rogers, Martin Henderson, and Queen Latifah.

Miracles arrived amidst a series of Christian dramas that includes Risen, The Young Messiah, and God’s Not Dead 2 on April 1. There are signs that this could be the best performer. The novel has a following and this seeks to capitalize on its pre Easter release date.

I’ll predict Heaven achieves a mid teens gross over the traditional weekend and could reach above $20M over the five day rollout.

Miracles from Heaven opening weekend prediction: $15.8 million (Friday to Sunday), $20.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

For my The Divergent Series: Allegiant prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/the-divergent-series-allegiant-box-office-prediction/

The Divergent Series: Allegiant Box Office Prediction

Shailene Woodley and company are back next weekend in The Divergent Series: Allegiant, the third entry in the YA adaptations from author Veronica Roth. The dystopian sci fi pic arrives in the same March slot as its predecessors, 2014’s Divergent and last year’s Insurgent. Director Robert Schwentke is back behind the camera and costars include Theo James, Miles Teller, Ansel Elgort, Naomi Watts, Jeff Daniels, Octavia Spencer, and Zoe Kravitz.

Second installment Insurgent saw a slight dip from the first entry. While Divergent debuted to $54 million and eventually grossed $150M domestic, Insurgent opened at $52 million with an overall $130M tally. Reviews for Allegiant haven’t been kind… it sits at 0% currently on Rotten Tomaotes and I look for its returns to continue diminishing. Even the third and fourth Hunger Games pics saw dips from the first two and this should follow suit.

I’ll say this first Allegiant (the second part arrives in March 2017) will be the first of the series to fall below the $50M mark out of the gate with low to mid 40s being more probable.

The Divergent Series: Allegiant opening weekend prediction: $43.7 million

For my Miracles from Heaven prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/10/miracles-from-heaven-box-office-prediction/

The Peanuts Movie Review

For decades, the Charles Schulz comic strip Peanuts and the many TV specials it begat has inspired generations of children. While Mr. Schulz passed away just a month into the 21st century, his creation gets the 21st century treatment with spruced up 3D animation in The Peanuts Movie, with a script credit that includes one of his children and a grandchild.

The gang is all here, led by the insecure but lovable Charlie Brown and his trusty dog Snoopy. The plot hearkens back to some classic storylines as our yellow and black shirted protagonist is trying to work up the guts to impress the Little Red Haired Girl. Separately, Snoopy (with sidekick Woodstock alongside) pens a tale about being a world famous pilot rescuing his love interest Fifi from the dangerous Red Baron. Schroeder plays the piano, Linus offers sound advice, Lucy continues her love/hate relationship with our hero and dishes out 5 cent advice, and Peppermint Patty continues her supervisory role with dutiful Marcie. Kites and footballs are present.

The upgrade to 3D isn’t completely necessary but it looks just fine. The Christophe Beck score thankfully pays homage to wonderful music of Vince Guaraldi and his work in the holiday specials. There are a couple contemporary pop tunes needlessly present, but it’s not enough to serve as a major distraction.

Charlie Brown’s universal and long standing appeal is simple. We see ourselves in him with the self doubting and hopefully, with his enduring willingness to keep trying. It’s something that Schulz mastered and it is something the makers of this version also understand. Pixar has truly excelled at combining some films that satisfy the hearts and minds of kids and adults alike. While The Peanuts Movie knowingly and successfully taps the nostalgia feels of its older crowd, this isn’t in the same league. The subplot with adorable Snoopy has its moments, but occasionally feels like filler in a pic with a running time of less than 90 minutes. That said, this is a worthy addition in the Peanuts world as we continue to root for Charlie overcoming his obstacles.

*** (out of four)

Goosebumps Movie Review

Nearly a quarter century after the wildly popular R.L. Stine’s children’s books were first published, Goosebumps finally makes its way to the silver screen. After dozens of the novels and a TV show, it’s a bit surprising it took so long to get this adaptation off the ground. Tim Burton was attached to helm in the late 90s when Goosebumps was considerably more popular.

Yet here we are and the long gestating Goosebumps has arrived with a simple and sometimes clever concept. Jack Black plays Mr. Stine himself, who lives in a quiet Delaware town with his teenage daughter Hannah (Odeya Rush). When new kid in town Zach (Dylan Minnette) arrives from New York City, he strikes up a friendship with next door neighbor Hannah while Dad strenuously disapproves and doesn’t even want him crossing the fence to visit. We soon find out why. It turns out that Stine’s original manuscripts for his works are locked down and if they’re opened, the many monsters he wrote about escape. This, of course, occurs. For fans of the series, this means a treasure trove of familiar creatures including zombies and werewolves and giant insects and so forth. Leading them is Slappy the Ventriloquist Dummy (don’t call him a dummy though), voiced by Black. It also means a lot of CGI that is decent, but nothing special.

While Tim Burton didn’t direct (Rob Letterman did), this sure sounds like one of his pictures with its Danny Elfman score. Black seems to be having a good time and hams it up a bit. Other performances are adequate (though Minnette is a bit bland). The exception is Jillian Bell as Zach’s love seeking aunt. She seems to stand out lately in everything she does. Amy Ryan has little to do as his mom and Ryan Lee has a couple funny moments as his girl crazy new best bud.

Kids should eat this up and there’s enough fun to keep the adults from checking out. Goosebumps eventually wears a little thin and runs out of interesting situations to put all these dastardly creations (a ho hum sequence with a werewolf terrorizing a mostly empty supermarket doesn’t really cut it). Lovers of these books that have sold 400 million copies have waited quite a while to see Stine’s imagination on the big screen. The results are neither frighteningly good or howlingly bad.

**1/2 (out of four)

16 for ’16: Oscar Contenders

The Academy Awards honoring the best of 2015 aired just over a week ago. So what does that mean? Well, it means that it’s time for incredibly early Oscar speculation on the films and performers that could factor into next year’s ceremony.

This evening on the blog, I take a look at 16 pictures that may find themslves in contention a year from now. Obviously, this is about as premature as it gets and there will be LOTS more speculation as the year rolls along. Yet here’s a first look at 16 for ’16 Oscar potentials:

Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Release Date: November 11

Ang Lee has directed four Best Picture nominees over the past two decades and received two wins for his direction (Brokeback Mountain, Life of Pi). This Iraq War themed drama (based on a well received novel) featuring newcomer Joe Alwyn and familiar faces Garrett Hedlund, Kristen Stewart, Vin Diesel, Steve Martin, and Chris Tucker is highly likely to receive some chatter.

The Birth of a Nation

Release Date: October 7

Focusing on the true story of the slave rebellion led by Nat Turner, this passion project from Nate Parker (who stars and directs) received glowing reviews out of the Sundance Film Festival and picked up an Oscar friendly release date.

Collateral Beauty

Release Date: December 16

The Devil Wears Prada director David Frankel helms this comedic drama with an all-star cast that includes Will Smith, Kate Winslet, Keira Knightley, Helen Mirren, Edward Norton, and Jonah Hill.

Finding Dory

Release Date: June 17

Pixar has found itself in the Best Picture mix before with both 2009’s Up and 2010’s Toy Story 3. This sequel to 2003’s beloved Finding Nemo may follow suit and it should at the least be a major contender in Best Animated Feature.

Florence Foster Jenkins

Release Date: TBD

Put Meryl Streep in anything and she might be a possibility for an Actress nomination. So it is with Stephen Frears’ comedy/drama, which casts the 19 times nominated and 3 time winning Streep as the opera singing title character.

The Founder

Release Date: August 5

Michael Keaton has found himself featured in the last two Best Picture winners (Birdman, Spotlight). Could it be a three-peat with this biopic, which finds Keaton as McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc? John Lee Hancock (The Blind Side, Saving Mr. Banks) directs with Laura Dern costarring.

Free State of Jones

Release Date: May 13

2013 Best Actor winner Matthew McConaughey headlines this Civil War drama from Seabiscuit and Hunger Games director Gary Ross.

The Girl on the Train

Release Date: October 7

The Help‘s Tate Taylor directs this psychological thriller that could provide an Oscar friendly role for star Emily Blunt.

La La Land

Release Date:December 16

Damien Chazelle follows up his 2014 Oscar nominee Whiplash with this comedic musical drama starring Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, and J.K. Simmons.

Nocturnal Animals

Release Date: TBD

Fashion designer Tom Ford follows up his acclaimed 2009 debut A Single Man with this drama featuring Jake Gyllenhaal, Amy Adams, Kim Basinger, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, and Michael Shannon.

Richard Pryor: Is It Something I Said?

Release Date: TBD

Lee Daniels directs this biopic of the legendary comedian with Mike Epps in the starring role and Oprah Winfrey and Eddie Murphy among the supporting cast.

Silence

Release Date: TBD

Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson headline this historical drama from Martin Scorsese, who has seen five out his last six movies nominated for the big prize.

Sully

Release Date: September 9

Clint Eastwood follows up his 2014 nominee American Sniper with the true life tale of the title character pilot who pulled off the “Miracle on the Hudson” (which I like better as a title, by the way). Tom Hanks is Sully with Aaron Eckhart and Laura Linney backing him up.

A United Kingdom

Release Date: TBD

The period piece interracial romance features two stars who could be ripe for recognition – David Oyelowo and Rosamund Pike.

War Machine

Release Date: TBD

Release Date: This Afghanistan war comedy is likely to garner more attention than the last one, Tina Fey’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. Based on a bestselling novel, it stars Brad Pitt, Ben Kingsley, and Topher Grace.

The Zookeeper’s Wife

Release Date: TBD

This Holocaust themed drama (based on a bestseller) could be a factor in Picture and in Actress for Jessica Chastain’s lead role.

Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Perfect Match Box Office Prediction

Rom com The Perfect Match hopes to line up moviegoers when it debuts next weekend. Music video director and Honey maker Bille Woodruff is behind the camera with Terrence J, Cassie Ventura, Donald Faison, Paula Patton, Lauren London, Joe Pantoliano, and Brandy Norwood among the cast members.

Lionsgate is hopeful the flick will reach its intended African American audience and these movies often do significantly exceed expectations. Having said that, Match does seem to have a limited footprint in its marketing campaign and I’m not sure this half of the $9 million that Baggage Claim, a similarly themed pic, did three years ago. It also doesn’t that it’s opening on only a reported 850 screens that must be accounted for as well.

The Perfect Match opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

The Young Messiah Box Office Prediction

Two weeks before the Easter holiday, faith based drama The Young Messiah rises in theaters next weekend hoping to take advantage of the season. Produced by Home Alone and Harry Potter helmer Chris Columbus, Messiah features Adam Greaves-Neal as a young Jesus with Sean Bean costarring.

Shot for a reported small budget of $16.8 million, this shouldn’t have much trouble recouping costs and then some (especially if it experiences meager declines in weekends two and three, which seems feasible). These Christian themed pics are typically tough to project and often do open larger than expected. Just in mid February, Risen (a similarly themed tale appealing to the same audience) took in $11.8 million. That seems a reasonable range for Messiah.

I’ll say it reaches just beyond that and, in doing so, I have it debuting even higher than Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby opening against it.

The Young Messiah opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

The Brothers Grimsby Box Office Prediction

Sacha Baron Cohen is back in his first starring role in nearly four years with action comedy The Brothers Grimsby and the effort looks to be a real test of his drawing power. From Now You See Me director Louis Leterrier and costarring Mark Strong, Penelope Cruz, Rebel Wilson, Ian McShane, Isla Fisher, and Gabourey Sidibe – Grimsby may represent a low mark for Cohen’s headlining output.

He burst onto the film scene in 2006 with Borat to the tune of a $26 million opening and improved those numbers with Bruno‘s $30 million premiere three years. His last vehicle, 2012’s The Dictator, managed $17 million out of the gate. That number would probably be on the higher end of expectations for this, which is managing an OK 50% on Rotten Tomaotes and looks unlikely to be a breakout hit like he’s experienced in years past.

While Grimsby should reach double digits, I believe it may not get much beyond that for a disappointing haul.

The Brothers Grimsby opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million