You may not be aware, but one of 2016’s best reviewed pictures came out in limited release this weekend with HellorHighWater. The modern day Western/heist thriller debuted at the Cannes Film Festival a few months back to positive buzz and further critical reaction has solidified its reputation. Directed by David Mackenzie and starring Jeff Bridges, Chris Pine, and Ben Foster, it stands at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Hell’s biggest hurdle could be breaking out with audiences and being widely known enough to garner attention from Oscar voters. It’s probably on the outside looking in, but if its admirers and CBS Films mount a campaign, who knows? I would say its best shot at Academy attention won’t be the film, director, or performers – but screenwriter Taylor Sheridan in Original Screenplay. This is his second acclaimed script in as many years as he penned 2015’s Sicario.
Bottom line: HellorHighWater has an uphill climb for nominations, but it’s got better than a snowball’s chance.
The animation division of Focus Features/Laika hopes for another solid performer as Kubo and the Two Strings plays theaters next weekend. The 3D stop-motion fantasy set in ancient Japan features a number of recognizable actors voicing the action, including Charlize Theron, Matthew McConaughey, Ralph Fiennes, Rooney Mara, and OG Sulu George Takei.
Travis Knight directs and he’s served as lead animator for all of Laika’s previous efforts. Those would be: 2009’s Coraline, which opened with $16.8 million; 2012’s ParaNorman, which debuted at $14 million; and 2014’s The Boxtrolls, which premiered with $17.2 million.
Those are some pretty consistent numbers and I believe Kubo should fall right in line with them. In fact, I believe Two Strings has a good shot at just outpacing its two competitors opening against it: the pricey Ben-Hur remake and Jonah Hill action/comedy War Dogs. My prediction puts this right at where Coraline got things started seven years ago and Boxtrolls left things two years back.
Kubo and the Two Strings opening weekend prediction: $17 million
Director Todd Phillips brings his comedic sensibilities overseas in War Dogs, opening next weekend. It stars Jonah Hill and Miles Teller in the true life story of two dudes who make it big as arms dealers in Afghanistan. Ana de Armas and Hangover headliner Bradley Cooper are in the supporting cast.
Trailers and TV spots haven’t been shy about advertising that this comes from the Hangover team. Hill is a known commodity in the genre and he could help turnout. A few years back, just the involvement of Phillips would be a major box office pull. In the middle of the first and second Hangover, it even helped Due Date reached a gross of $100 million. Of course, the participation of Robert Downey, Jr. and Zach Galifianakis didn’t hurt. I’m skeptical the director’s name carries as much weight now, especially since his signature franchise ran out of steam.
I suspect War Dogs could have trouble finding a wide audience. War comedies can have a tough road. You can ask Tina Fey and the team behind this spring’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which faltered with only $7.4 million in its debut. Or George Clooney and the makers of 2009’s The Men Who Stare at Goats, which premiered with $12.7 million. This should manage to top that by a bit, but I’ll predict low teens for a lackluster start.
War Dogs opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million
Timur Berkmambetov’s $100 million remake of Ben-Hur chariots into theaters next weekend and it represents a massive and expensive risk from Paramount Pictures. The Biblical epic has actually been produced numerous times, though most famously in 1959 in the Oscar-winning Charlton Heston extravaganza.
This time around, Jack Huston is the title character with Morgan Freeman, Toby Kebbell, Nazanin Bonialdi, and Rodrigo Santoro (as Jesus) among the supporting cast. The director is best known for 2008’s hit Wanted and 2012’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.
Early reports have signaled a bumpy road ahead for this with projections in the mid-teens. For starters, people who are in their mid-teens and even older aren’t overly familiar with the source material. More mature audiences who hold the 1959 pic in high regard may not be clamoring for an action fueled remake. It begs the question: who will turn out for this?
Paramount is likely hoping Christian moviegoers will show up. That could be its best hope at hitting $20 million or over. Yet I’m skeptical. The stories indicating a weak teens opening will probably turn out to be accurate in my judgment and that means a costly flop for the studio. The similarly themed Gods of Egypt bombed with just $14.1 million earlier this year. I’ll say manages to slightly outdo that, but not by much.
Jeff Nichols’ MidnightSpecial is an occasionally very effective family drama masquerading as a sci-fi genre piece. None of the elements contained here are really fresh, but the writer/director manages to find ways to the audience intrigued with some stellar performances to boot.
The pic tells the story of Alton Meyer (Jacob Lieberher), an eight year old Texas boy seemingly kidnapped by his father Roy (Michael Shannon). Alas, it’s not so simple. The young lad holds supernatural powers that his father knows gives him a far greater cause than he can fathom. If Dad were to tell others that his son’s eyes light up, he means it differently than most. Alton has spent the past couple of years in the care of a religious cult who believe he can predict the end times. The United States government are fearful that he’s a weapon. They’re both chasing him as Roy and his state trooper buddy (Joel Edgerton) try to get Alton where he needs to be. Mom (Kirsten Dunst) eventually enters the frame as well.
Part of the joy of MidnightSpecial is the genuine unpredictability that pervades the first half especially. The story reveals itself gradually as our protagonists speed along to a destination unknown for the majority of its running time. Shannon has appeared in all four Nichols features. He may not look like your typical leading man these days (he may have been more at home in the 70s), but he has again and again proven his ability to carry a film. Lieberher is understated and effective and all aforementioned supporting players do fine work. This also extends to Adam Driver as a sympathetic NSA operative (not a movie term used often for that profession).
By the director’s own telling, this is partly an homage to the 1970s/80s genre masters before him like Spielberg and John Carpenter (the score could have been composed by him). When we reach the third act, it’s still engaging even if a sense of familiarity and an anti-climactic tone chimes in. For more overt sci-fi throwbacks to the era Nichols is celebrating, we have Super8 and now Netflix’s “Stranger Things”. The most rewarding moments here lie in the drama of a father’s love for his son and willingness to do anything for him. Anything in the universe.
Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.
As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.
I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $45.7 million
2. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Jason Bourne
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Bad Moms
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
6. Florence Foster Jenkins
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:
A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’sDragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High
56% think I’m Too Low on SausageParty, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right
FlorenceFosterJenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
SuicideSquad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:
Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.
Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.
Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.
The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.
Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.
Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
It may be called Keanu with an adorable kitten named after the actor who gave us Neo/Johnny Utah/John Wick, but the debut feature starring Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” could’ve been titled GeorgeMichael as well. The iconic 1980s British crooner gets his props throughout this action comedy that may have felt right at home in theaters when “Faith” and “Father Figure” were burning up the charts.
The duo’s basic cable program was a rather groundbreaking show with some truly inspired bits. You won’t really find that here. Instead, Keanu is a breezy if rather forgettable tale of the tail of the cat who captures the hearts of everyone who comes in contact with it. Jordan Peele is Rell, who’s depressed after his girlfriend broke up with him when that darn kitty comes into his possession. His best bud/cousin Clarence (Keegan-Michael Key) is stuck in a dull middle class existence with a bored wife (Nia Long) who’s out of town for the weekend. The pair soon learn that Keanu is actually the property of a drug kingpin whose employees were recently mowed down by assassins known as The Allentown Boys (also played by Key and Peele). Before you know it, Rell and Clarence are posing as them in an effort to get the kidnapped Keanu back.
Their journey brings them to the underground L.A. drug scene and a crew led by Cheddar (Method Man) and Hi-C (Tiffany Haddish), who Rell has the hots for. Of course, they need nifty nicknames, too. Tectonic and Shark Tank suffice. As they try to find that fabulously cute feline, the guys teach some criminals the joys of George Michael in a humorous bit that just keeps going and going.
Maybe that’s part of the problem here. The shark out of water premise of Keanu barely can sustain itself for 100 minutes. There are moments sprinkled throughout that work well. An unexpected cameo from ScaryMovie lead Anna Faris is amusing. Key and Peele do succeed in proving that their charisma on the small screen translates to the big one. And, yes, that kitten really is a gem. Yet the concept of these guys having to “get hard” (to borrow a phrase from a far worse Kevin Hart vehicle that uses similar plotting) is a rather familiar one. This is a talented pair at work, though. I wouldn’t hesitate to sign up when they get “One More Try”, as that hit song says from Mr. Michael.
Suicide Squad is the latest in DC’s attempt to Marvelize its cinematic universe in considerably darker shades. It’s noisy and messy. It’s filled with some top-notch performances and fascinating characters mixed with utterly forgettable ones. In a pic filled with villains, there’s weak ones and strong ones. Yes, it’s what we’ve come to anticipate in a series that continues to follow what Man of Steel and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice started.
David Ayers directs this tale of super villains who are charged with saving the world. This is an idea hatched by government official Amanda Waller (a typically solid Viola Davis) and the team she assembles is an unknown one unless you’re an avid comic book reader. It includes master marksman Deadshot (Will Smith), loony tunes temptress Harley Quinn (Margot Robbie), flame thrower with a fiery temper El Diablo (Jay Hernandez), Aussie Captain Boomerang (Jai Courtney), disfigured Killer Croc (Adewale Akinnouye-Agbaje) and sword expert Katana (Karen Fukuhara).
We get back stories on them all – some more detailed and worthy of screen time than others. Will Smith gives a decent performance, even though his subplot of being a bad hit man who’s also a really dedicated dad (!) is as stale as it sounds. Still he acquits himself well, even if he’s done the dour anti-hero thing before in Hancock. The El Diablo story is helped by Hernandez’s work, even though his flashback info is a bit too serious for everything else happening here. Quite frankly, many of the others aren’t even worth mentioning.
The other that is? That would be Ms. Quinn, played with gusto and a Stockard Channing like Grease accent from Robbie. Her wise cracks land more often than not. She’s the highlight here and her road to villainy involves her romance with the granddaddy baddie of them all, The Joker (Jared Leto). Their story is one that works well, partly due to Leto hitting his mark in a role that’s obviously been well-played before. His screen time is limited (probably wisely) and I look with anticipation to seeing him again.
Where Squad fails majorly is with a dull main villain and that’s Enchantress (Carla Delevingne), an archeologist turned witchy woman with world domination on her mind. In a movie filled with bad guys, the one they’re chasing shouldn’t be a bore. She is and so is her soldier boyfriend – Colonel Rick Flag (Joel Kinnaman) – from her pre-spell life.
The action sequences are a mixed bag, especially when Ayers films them in such darkness that it’s hard to tell what’s happening. This is an issue that has pervaded other DC adaptations. We expect CG to look pretty decent in everything now and that holds true here, though nothing really stands out.
For the first half or so, Suicide Squad is a bit of depraved fun. A lot of that is Robbie’s doing with some credit to Smith. After about the halfway mark, the feeling sets in that we aren’t terribly invested in what’s occurring and that the Squad goals of taking down the witch seem inconsequential. Batman v Superman was a bit of a mess as well (its main villain issues – aka Jesse Eisenberg – were also there). Yet I somehow left that experience ready to see the Justice League formed. Here – I’m indifferent to Squad seconds. Now if Harley wants to join her main man to battle Superman, Batman, and the others – that’s cool.
Meryl Streep headlines the autobiographical comedic drama Florence Foster Jenkins, opening next weekend. Casting the record-setting Oscar nominee as the New York heiress in the early 1940s whose dream was to perform at Carnegie Hall (despite a questionable voice), Jenkins comes from The Queen director Stephen Frears. The supporting cast includes Hugh Grant, Simon Helberg, and Rebecca Ferguson.
The pic will attempt to bring in an older and mostly female audience as counter programming during the dog days of August. Reviews have been encouraging with a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating. In fact, Ms. Streep could be on the cusp of her 20th Academy Award nomination (especially if this performs well stateside).
That prospect is a bit questionable – both with box office numbers and a potential Oscar nod. Our lead does have a history in recent years with August premieres. 2009’s Julie and Julia scored with a $20 million start. 2012’s Hope Springs made a decent $14.6 million. Last year’s example wasn’t as successful as Ricki and the Flash (which received mixed critical notes) premiered with just $6.6 million. My estimate puts Florence a little closer to Ricki considering its rather low screen count opening of 1500 theaters.
Florence Foster Jenkins opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
It’s a banner year for animated movies at the box office (excluding the freezing out of Ice Age: Collision Course), yet a very different one opens next weekend with Sausage Party. The 3D animated flick comes from the minds of Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg and it is definitely not meant for the little ones.
Supermarket produce comes to life in the very hard R comedy that features a whole lotta familiar voices other than Mr. Rogen’s. They include Kristin Wiig, Jonah Hill, Bill Hader, Michael Cera, James Franco, Danny McBride, Craig Robinson, Paul Rudd, Nick Kroll, Edward Norton, and Salma Hayek. Made for a quite reasonable $30 million, this has been a passion project for Rogen and company and took years to get produced. Early reviews have been strong – it holds a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes (no word yet on whether actual rotten tomatoes are featured in this).
If there’s one genre where not a whole lot of data exists – adult animated pics would be one of them. 1996’s Beavis and Butthead Do America opened to $20.1 million and 1999’s South Park: Bigger, Longer, and Uncut earned $11.3 million. Word of mouth could certainly help here but in the end, I envision this performing similarly to some other Rogen features. This is The End earned $20.7 million in its initial weekend and this summer’s Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising disappointed with $21.7 million. That seems like a reasonable range for this Party and I’ll put it at just below $20M.
Sausage Party opening weekend prediction: $19.4 million
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