Year: 2016

Oscar Watch: La La Land

Some pictures seem tailor made for Oscar attention and Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is one of them. This major piece of the 2016 Academy Awards puzzle was freshly unveiled at the Venice Film Festival, some three months before its December 2nd stateside bow. Based on the critical reaction, it appears we have our first legitimate gold statue contender.

La La Land is the director’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2014 pic Whiplash, which earned J.K. Simmons a Supporting Actor award and a Best Picture nomination. He missed out on his first directing nod two years ago. That could change here.

Let’s check some boxes on how La La Land will appeal to Academy voters. First, it’s about show business people. They love that. Two – it’s a throwback to the musicals of days past. They’ll adore that, too. Early reviews suggest an optimistic and vibrant movie that will contrast nicely with plenty of darker themed entries coming our way over the fall.

So let’s get this out of the way right now: it may be early, but La Land Land is going to be nominated for Best Picture. Mark it down. Chazelle stands an excellent shot at his first directorial recognition. As for the actors, our co-leads of Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone appear to be on different wavelengths. Stone looks like a lock for an Actress nomination, while Gosling’s inclusion into Actor is murkier. As for Supporting performers, it remains to be seen how things shake out in those races. John Legend has been mentioned as the best possibility in Supporting Actor (I included him in my earliest predictions posted yesterday). J.K. Simmons (in the same category) and Rosemarie DeWitt in Supporting Actress currently seem less likely.

Other nomination chances are abundant. An Original Screenplay nod for Chazelle is virtually assured. Production Design. Cinematography. Editing. Multiple entries in Original Song. Score. Sound categories. Costume Design.

Venice has proven one thing and that is that La La Land seems destined to have Oscar voters singing its praises into next year. Take note.

 

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Actress

Day 3 of my early Oscar predictions arrives with Best Actress. These late August/early September guesstimates yielded two of the eventual nominees in 2014 and three last year.

Looking over the field of possibilities for Best Actress in 2016, one thing seems clear. More than most years, this particular race seems loaded with legitimate contenders and it could be one of the more competitive categories of the year.

Let’s start with three actresses who have received nominations but never won: four-time nominee and never winner Annette Bening is headlining this fall’s 20th Century Women. She was a strong contender for wins in both 1999 and 2004 (for American Beauty and Being Julia), but lost out in both cases to Hilary Swank.

There’s five-time nominee and never winner Amy Adams, who has two pictures in which she could be recognized: Arrival and Nocturnal Animals.

We have Viola Davis in this December’s Denzel Washington directed Fences. She was nominated for 2011’s The Help but lost to Meryl Streep in her role as The Iron Lady.

Speaking of Meryl Streep… there’s Meryl Streep going for her 20th nomination as Florence Foster Jenkins. Its potential drawback could be muted box office numbers this summer, but you can never count her out.

Emma Stone will likely draw attention for her work in the musical drama La La Land. Ruth Negga has received early raves costarring in the interracial romance Loving. Then there’s the biopic Jackie (as in Kennedy), which casts 2010 winner Natalie Portman in the title role. She could be a major contender, yet there’s some uncertainty as to when it’ll come out.

Oh there’s more! Jennifer Lawrence will go for her fifth nomination in seven years with sci-fi drama Passengers. Emily Blunt could be a player with The Girl on the Train, as could previous nominees Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Rosamund Pike (A United Kingdom), and Rooney Mara (Lion). Not to mention previous winners like Sally Field (My Name is Doris), Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky) and Marion Cotillard (Allied).

Bottom line: this race looks packed and we’ll see how it develops in the coming weeks. For now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Arrival

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women

Viola Davis, Fences

Ruth Negga, Loving

Emma Stone, La La Land

Other Possibilities:

Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals

Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane

Marion Cotillard, Allied

Sally Field, My Name is Doris

Rebecca Hall, Christine

Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers

Rooney Mara, Lion

Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky

Rosamund Pike, A United Kingdom

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Alicia Vikander, The Light Between Oceans

Rachel Weisz, Denial

Best Actor tomorrow!

In the Heart of the Sea Movie Review

Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea is a periodically engrossing yet often curiously flat rendering of the true story that inspired Herman Melville’s famed novel Moby Dick. It begins in 1850 as the author (Ben Whishaw) visits Thomas (Brendan Gleeson), the last survivor of the Essex, a ship that was destroyed by a great white whale and leaving its crew stranded at sea. Thomas isn’t anxious to regale Melville of the survival tactics used 30 years prior. Yet he relents and he’s soon playing Gloria Stuart to Melville’s Bill Paxton.

We move to Nantucket circa 1820 as the whale oil trade is at its height and Owen Chase (Chris Hemsworth) is under the impression that he’ll get his first plum assignment as captain of the vessel. Politics thwarts this plan as that job goes to the more inexperienced George Pollard (Benjamin Walker), whose family are titans in the business. Speaking of politics, the screenplay occasionally (and rather needlessly) pouns the point home that the practice of slaughtering whales was a necessity 200 years ago.

Chase isn’t happy about being first mate and leaving his pregnant wife (of course she is) but he soon sets sail with Pollard and a crew that includes young Thomas (Tom Holland). There’s also a second mate portrayed by the talented Cillian Murphy, who is given incredibly little to do.

After several weeks of no luck on the mission, the Essex crew soon find themselves eye to whale eye with its pesky nemesis. Let the torment begin. In the Heart of the Sea doesn’t bother to flesh out its characters to any real degree. Hemsworth certainly looks the leading man part here and throws spears with the grace of his Thor hammer skills. His New England accent leaves much to be desired and he’s not the only one. Walker is rather dull. The best work belongs to the always solid Gleeson, who gets the most emotional material to work with.

Compliments are owed to the makeup crew and actors themselves that convincingly convey the wear and tear of the men stranded for months at sea. Howard has clearly set out to make an old fashioned story with new style CG effects. His old school sensibilities are actually more in tune with the mid-1970s than a century plus earlier. We actually don’t see the great white whale too often here… kind of like another great white dweller in Jaws. In the Heart of the Sea may be true and may have inspired a masterpiece work of art. However, that doesn’t mean that today it doesn’t feel pretty familiar and a bit like Jaws with less interesting people in the water.

**1/2 (out of four)

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing on with my first round of Oscar predictions, day two brings us to Best Supporting Actor. In both 2014 and 2015, my late August/early September initial picks yielded two out the eventual five nominees. Last year, these first picks correctly identified winner Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies.

There are plenty of contenders to list at this early stage. One of the big question marks in plenty of categories is Martin Scorsese’s Silence, a passion project and historical drama that has yet to release a trailer or announce when it’s coming out. It is assumed that it’ll be out in time for Oscar consideration. If so, Liam Neeson is likely to be a contender in this race (and maybe costar Adam Driver).

As mentioned yesterday with Kristen Stewart in Supporting Actress, Ang Lee’s Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk appears to be a potential major awards player and the beloved Steve Martin could reap the benefits with his first ever acting nod. Vin Diesel, Chris Tucker, and Garrett Hedlund are also possibilities.

Michael Shannon could be under consideration for two high-profile fall entries – Jeff Nichols’ Loving or Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.

Barry Jenkins’ indie African-American romantic drama Moonlight is getting attention (I predicted Naomie Harris yesterday for Supporting Actress recognition) and Mahershala Ali (known to many as Remy Danton on Netflix’s “House of Cards”) could find himself in the mix.

Damien Chazelle’s La La Land is also expected to garner Oscar talk (it’ll screen for critics on the festival circuit in days) and it could feature a breakout role for singer John Legend.

And there’s many more possibilities, including Warren Beatty’s return to the silver screen in Rules Don’t Apply. There’s John Goodman’s already acclaimed work in 10 Cloverfield Lane (though the genre could make him a long shot). Or maybe a first nomination for Hugh Grant in Florence Foster Jenkins. And there’s two movies that Aaron Eckhart could find himself being considered for.

As always, the list will be updated in the weeks and months ahead, but for now…

TODD’S EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

John Legend, La La Land

Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Liam Neeson, Silence

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Other Possibilities:

Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Kyle Chandler, Manchester by the Sea

Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures

Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women

Robert De Niro, Hands of Stone

Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Adam Driver, Silence

Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This

Aaron Eckhart, Sully

Brendan Gleeson, Live by Night

John Goodman, 10 Cloverfield Lane

Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins

Armie Hammer, The Birth of a Nation

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Stephen Henderson, Fences

Oscar Isaac, The Promise

Nick Offerman, The Founder

Edgar Ramirez, Gold

Michael Shannon, Loving

J.K. Simmons, La La Land

Timothy Spall, Denial

Chris Tucker, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

And there you have it! Best Actress tomorrow…

2016 Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

The summer movie season has wound to a close and we can feel the autumn season just around the corner. That means football, leaves changing, and back to school. It also means the 2016 fall movie season is about to begin and that means – early Oscar speculation!!

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it may seem a bit too early for that, but it isn’t. The film festival season will be starting before we know it with Venice, Toronto, Telluride and New York on deck. A host of Oscar hopefuls will receive their first screenings and generate their first buzz. So this week – as I have in years past – I roll out my first round of Oscar predictions. This will be done in six installments beginning with Supporting Actress today and continuing daily with Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and the big dog – Picture. Each post will predict the five nominees (or in the case of Picture – five to ten). As the week wear on, I’ll be increasing my predictions to a weekly feature on the blog.

For Supporting Actress, let’s take a little trip down memory lane with my predictions in 2014 and 2015. Two years back, my earliest predictions yielded two out of the eventual five nominated performers (including winner Patricia Arquette for Boyhood). Last year, these initial predictions gave us three of the five and, in a way, four. At the time, there was uncertainty as to whether Alicia Vikander would be campaigned for in lead or supporting for The Danish Girl and I predicted her at the time for Actress. The campaign went with supporting and she was the winner. Let’s get to it!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

At this juncture, I’d say there’s no shoo-in nominees but Michelle Williams in this fall’s Manchester by the Sea is about as close as it gets. The pic has already screened at festivals to raves with many critics singling out her work.

Ang Lee’s November war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk looks to be a player in many categories and that could certainly trickle down to Kristen Stewart. The trailer for Moonlight seems to indicate a very meaty and Oscar-baity type role for Naomie Harris. There are questions surrounding how many nominations the acclaimed slavery pic The Birth of a Nation will receive (more on that in future posts), but Aja Naomi King has gotten acclaim for her role already.

As for a fifth, I’m just going to go with a total and complete wild card: Bryce Dallas Howard in December’s Gold, which not much is known about at the moment (no trailer even). Why? Well, this category is quite unformed at the moment, so why not? If it pans out, I’ll look really smart!

There’s a slew of others as possibilities, including multiple possibilities for 20th Century Women, American Pastoral and The Girl on the Train (with both Fanning sisters no less) and we shall see how it plays out in the coming weeks and months. For now…

TODD’S FIRST PREDICTIONS – BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold

Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation

Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Other Possibilities:

Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train

Jennifer Connelly, American Pastoral

Laura Dern, The Founder

Rosemarie DeWitt, La La Land

Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral

Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women

Rebecca Ferguson, The Girl on the Train

Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Jennifer Jason Leigh, LBJ

Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Miss Sloane

Zoe Saldana, Live by Night

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Rachel Weisz, The Light Between Oceans

Kate Winslet, Collateral Beauty

We’ll get to Supporting Actor tomorrow!

Box Office Predictions: September 2-5

The 2016 fall movie kicks off in muted fashion (per usual) with two new entries debuting: sci-fi thriller Morgan and period piece romantic drama The Light Between Oceans. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/the-light-between-oceans-box-office-prediction/

I’m not expecting either to make much of a splash and I’m predicting Light will just outshine Morgan for the #3 spot. Labor Day weekend has shown in past years that holdovers often don’t lose much of their audience from the previous weekend. In fact, in many cases, its percentage can increase a bit.

This will probably not hold true for current #1 Don’t Breathe, which had a smashing weekend out of the gate (more on that below). Like most horror titles. it should lose a fairly hefty percentage of its opening weekend crowd. Yet it’s likely to remain #1, unless one of the newbies surpasses expectations or Suicide Squad holds even better than forecast. Kubo and the Two Strings likely will round out the top five, though Pete’s Dragon may challenge it for that spot.

As for my blog poll on the two newcomers – 45% believe my Morgan estimate is Just About Right with 39% saying it’s Too High and 16% saying Too Low. With The Light Between Oceans, 40% think it’s Too High, 33% Just About Right, and 27% Too Low.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the holiday weekend that includes Friday to Sunday and Friday to Monday estimates:

1. Don’t Breathe

Predicted Gross: $13 million (Friday to Sunday), $16.7 million (Friday to Monday)

2. Suicide Squad

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $12.9 million (Friday to Monday)

3. The Light Between Oceans

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

4. Morgan

Predicted Gross: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)

5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (Friday to Sunday), $8 million (Friday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 26-28)

Low-budget horror pic Don’t Breathe continued a solid season for the genre with a fantastic $26.4 million debut (over double my meager $12.4M projection). The critically heralded project, with a reported budget of only $9.9 million, opened beyond even the rosiest of expectations, ousting Suicide Squad from its three-week reign at #1.

Squad dropped to second with $12.2 million (a bit ahead of my $10.6M estimate) for a four-week tally of $283M.

Animated Kubo and the Two Strings actually rose a spot to #3 with $7.8 million in its sophomore frame (in line with $7.5M prediction) for a ten day gross of $24M. A much different animated tale, Sausage Party, was fourth with $7.5 million (I said $7.6M) for a $79M tally.

Opening softly in fifth was the Jason Statham sequel Mechanic: Resurrection with $7.4 million (a bit under my $8.5M forecast).

Following closely behind in sixth was Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, also with $7.4 million (I said $6.6M) for a $54M haul.

War Dogs slipped from third to seventh in its second weekend with $7 million (I said $7.4M) for a $27M overall gross.

Bad Moms continued its impressive run in eight place with $5.5 million (I said $5.4M) for a $95M total. Jason Bourne was ninth with $5.1 million ($4.6M prediction here) for a gross of $149M. Ben-Hur continued its disastrous run in 10th with $4.5 million (a bit below my $5.2M estimate) for a total of only $19M.

There were a pair of limited releases – one that opened OK and the other not so much. Southside with You, dramatizing the first date of first couple Barack and Michelle Obama, managed $2.8 million on 813 screens for 14th place (it’ll expand a bit wider this weekend). Boxing drama Hands of Stone stumbled with just $1.7 million (below my $3.2M projection) on 810 screens for 16th place.

And finally – on this sad day for movie fans – a little of the incomparable Mr. Gene Wilder from Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. May he rest in peace.

Will Blair Witch and Rings Scare Up Nostalgia?

Two high-profile horror flicks coming out this fall seem to have a lot in common. Both will help answer the question as to whether late 90s and early 00s nostalgia scares up business for the both of them.

Both Blair Witch (out September 16) and Rings (October 28) have had interesting journeys to the silver screen. Witch is, of course, a sequel to The Blair Witch Project from 1999. It came out of nowhere that summer and kicked off the found footage craze of the genre that continued for some time. Shot for a tiny $60,000, it grossed $248 million worldwide. This new one comes from director Adam Wingard (who made 2013’s well-regarded You’re Next). For months, it was known as The Woods and the reveal that it was actually related to the famed pic from 17 years ago was unknown until recently.

Rings reinvigorates the dormant franchise of movies that hit it big with 2002’s The Ring, Gore Verbinski’s remake of 1998’s Japanese flick Ringu. It starred Naomi Watts in the role that exposed her to mass audiences and made $249 million globally. Like Blair Witch Project, it ushered in its own sub genre of horror that included The Grudge. Rings has been delayed a couple of times – it was originally scheduled to premiere last November, then pushed to April, and finally to this Halloween.

A similarity that these two series share: an underwhelming second picture in between the original and the reboots coming our way this autumn. 2000’s Book of Shadows: Blair Witch 2 didn’t strike the kind of chord that its predecessor did, earning weak reviews and just $50 million in sales. 2005’s The Ring Two also suffered mediocre critical response and audience reaction (making $76 million domestically compared to the original’s $129 million). What I recall most about it is some of the worst CG deer in the history of cinema.

The nostalgia train has been rolling along in theaters recently with some smashing successes (Jurassic World) and crushing failures (Independence Day: Resurgence). The horror genre is one that constantly remakes and re-imagines its popular franchises, but Blair Witch and Rings are among the first to test out moviegoers fondness for these series that hit it big less than two decades ago. Stay tuned!

Unfriended Movie Review

Unfriended stretches its 83 minute gimmick about as far as it’ll tolerably go and it helps that it feels somewhat new. The tiny budgeted (a cool million bucks) horror flick takes place entirely on web chat cameras with six teenagers being terrorized by their dead friend who killed herself… with the video of that suicide widely available online.

Revenge appears to be on the mind of the deceased Laura, who messages her former schoolmates and slowly reveals a whole lotta secrets in the process. Our lead is Blaire (Shelley Hennig) and in grand genre fashion, she’s the virgin ready to give that designation up on prom night with Mitch (Moses Storm). He’s another participant of Laura’s unlucky sextet along with the alcoholic dude, the slutty girl and the party girl, and the fat kid. Screenwriter Nelson Greaves knows his cliched scare fest characters and he takes some demented joy in playing around with them.

The pic also takes some amusement with the idea that, in similar titles of yesteryear, you may have yelled at the screen for the teenagers not just running away. This time around, they can’t run away from the tech devices that they’re constantly preoccupied with anyway. You may wish to yell at them for that here, but isn’t that part of the fun? And at least the visual style presented here is a slightly different variation of the found footage sub genre that played itself out.

It’s a credit to the script, unknown actors and direction from Levan Gabriadze that Unfriended has plenty of effectivelty creepy moments. I’ll also give props to its unabashed R rating when so many horror entries go PG-13 these days. Ultimately it can’t help but wear itself out eventually after about an hour. This is well after its anti-bullying message (whether through private message or Facebook message) has been received and then some.

**1/2 (out of four)

 

The Light Between Oceans Box Office Prediction

The Light Between Oceans opens over Labor Day weekend and hopes to bring in a sizable female crowd to combat the typical box office doldrums of this particular holiday weekend. The World War I era romantic drama stars Oscar nominee Michael Fassbender and Oscar winners Alicia Vikander and Rachel Weisz. Based on a 2012 novel by M.L. Stedman, it’s directed by Derek Cianfrance, best known for Blue Valentine and The Place Beyond the Pines.

Light‘s best hope at audience exposure should be if reviews are strong and it generates any Oscar buzz. This is an unknown at press time. That said, films that premiere over Labor Day typically have a tough time breaking out (this is a traditionally very slow time at multiplexes). I’ll predict Oceans manages to just break double digits over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a couple million added for the Monday extension of the holiday frame.

The Light Between Oceans opening weekend prediction: $9.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $11.3 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Morgan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/morgan-box-office-prediction/

Morgan Box Office Prediction

The science fiction thriller Morgan hits theaters over Labor Day weekend. Directed by Luke Scott – scion of Ridley (you know, the guy who made Alien and Blade Runner) – the pic centers on a young girl who’s developed in a lab and obtains super human qualities. When she starts to cause trouble, all sorts of “stranger things” (so to speak) begin happening.

Ridley executive produces his son’s first feature and the cast features Kate Mara, Anya Taylor-Joy, Toby Jones, Rose Leslie, Boyd Holbrook, Michelle Yeoh, Jennifer Jason Leigh, and Paul Giamatti. This is unlikely to make an impression with audiences like the aforementioned classics of the elder Scott’s resume.

Morgan is debuting on the holiday weekend least known for producing hits. This is a historically slow time at the box office where newbies often struggle to achieve anything above low double digits. I believe that will hold true here with a four-day haul reaching just that.

Morgan opening weekend prediction: $9 million (Friday to Sunday), $10.6 million (Friday to Monday)

For my The Light Between Oceans prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/08/24/the-light-between-oceans-box-office-prediction/