Amma Asante’s interracial romantic drama AUnitedKingdom has screened at the Toronto Film Festival over the weekend. The pic tells the true life story of the relationship between an African prince (David Oyelowo) and a London woman (Rosamund Pike) some seven decades ago.
Initial critical reaction has mostly been positive, but not to the level where Academy attention seems realistic. The lead performers have been on the radar screen of Oscar voters just two years ago when Pike nabbed a nomination for GoneGirl and Oyelowo surprisingly missed out on a nod for Selma.
If Kingdom somehow breaks through at the box office, the dynamic could change. However, that looks doubtful at this juncture. In fact, awards voters are far more likely to turn their attention to Jeff Nichols’ Loving, another mixed race drama that has received more buzz.
My Oscar Watch posts will continue as more Toronto hopefuls screen…
Over the weekend, the Toronto Film Festival screenings have dampened the hopes of some pictures to garner Oscar attention, most notably Ewan McGregor’s AmericanPastoral and Oliver Stone’s Snowden. Yet they can bolster the chances of others and that appears to be the case with Lion.
The pic tells the true life tale of a young Indian boy who is separated from his family in the mid 1980s and uses the resources of Google Earth to relocate them 25 years later. First time director Garth Davis is behind the camera and the film is produced by the Weinstein Company, whose founder Harvey has a knack for Oscar campaigning. Due to the participation of its lead Dev Patel and the geographic location, some early reviews have drawn comparisons to Danny Boyle’s SlumdogMillionaire, which won the big prize eight years ago.
While not all critical notices have been raves, Lion has been singled out as an inspiring crowd pleaser that the Academy could warm to. A Best Picture nod seems in reach and that could extend to Davis and Luke Davies for his Adapted Screenplay. As for the performers, Patel seems most likely to receive recognition. It isn’t 100% certain whether he will be campaigned for in lead Actor or Supporting. If he goes lead, there’s a chance that young Sunny Pawar (playing Patel’s character during the first hour) could get some buzz. Rooney Mara and especially Nicole Kidman could be factors in Supporting Actress.
Oliver Stone has won two Best Director Oscars for 1986’s Platoon and 1989’s BornontheFourthofJuly. He’s received little love from the Academy for the past two decades and his new true life political thriller Snowden hits screen next weekend.
It screened at the Toronto Film Festival this weekend. The verdict? Look for the lack of Oscar attention to continue. Some reviews marked it as a return to form for Mr. Stone, but others weren’t impressed. The tale of CIA analyst Edward Snowden (Joseph Gordon Levitt) had originally been scheduled to open late last year before being delayed.
The buzz is muted enough that I don’t expect any nominations for it, including its director, lead, and supporting cast that includes Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo, Tom Wilkinson, Zachary Quinto, and Nicolas Cage.
As the Toronto Festival rolls along, so will my Oscar Watch posts.
The Toronto Film Festival, arriving just days after Venice and Telluride, will continue to shape this year’s Oscar race. Entries of past years have gone onto see numerous nominations. Just last year, half of the eventual Best Picture nominees played up north including the winner Spotlight. And there were a number of films that featured acting nominees.
My Oscar Watch coverage of Toronto begins with AmericanPastoral, Ewan McGregor’s directorial debut based on Philip Roth’s crime drama novel. It’s been on the radar screen of awards prognosticators for some time. McGregor also stars alongside previous winner Jennifer Connelly and Dakota Fanning.
In my first edition of weekly Academy predictions on Thursday, I listed Pastoral at #9 in the Picture race. The buzz coming from Toronto based on its screenings has changed that dynamic and not for the better. The pic received a number of mediocre reviews and it looks now as if Pastoral will be on the outside looking in for Oscar recognition. Its actors, too, are unlikely to find themselves in contention.
I’ll have the Oscar Watch posts continuing throughout the day… And throughout the festival.
Sully is the most feel good movie in recent memory that’s likely to make you feel woefully inadequate the next time you miss the mark parallel parking. After all, it tells the remarkable story of Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger (Tom Hanks), who became an American hero after completing an improbable water landing on the Hudson River in January 2009.
Clint Eastwood’s latest delves deeper into a story that inspired millions some seven and a half years ago. It also reminds us of that not so distant period when the economy had recently plummeted and the sight of an aircraft off course in New York City was a terrifying sight. While Sully and his trusty co-pilot Jeff (Aaron Eckhart) are confident that their reaction to a bird strike that caused engine failure on takeoff was correct, the NTSB is not so sure.
The film cuts back and forth between the pilots sitting in after the crash (or water landing as Sully insists it be called since no crash occurred) hearings and brief happenings before the most famous three-minute flight ever. There’s some back story showing a young Sully earnings his wings that somehow felt like unnecessary filler in a tight 96 minute runtime. We also see the title character trying to cope with instant fame in the immediate days following (he wonders into a bar one night where there’s already a drink named after him). And we see glimpses into his married life with Laura Linney in a role where her face is constantly connected to her cell phone. Her husband is stuck in NYC until the investigation’s completion.
We see the United Airways flight from multiple angles – that of the air traffic controller, of citizens in the Big Apple, of the Coast Guard. Most thrillingly, we see the cockpit reaction and split second decisions that had to be made to save 155 lives on board. Though we know the outcome, Eastwood and his editor direct these sequences in a way that generates maximum suspense. Speaking of the director, I was able to spot a subtle Eastwood cameo in a scene where Sully runs through Times Square. Hint: his hit GranTorino happened to be the #1 movie in America when these events happened.
Hanks has long perfected the Everyman Doing Extraordinary Things role – so much so that we probably take his incredible talent for granted. He does it here again and creates another hero filled with doubts and fears. Sully is also a man who barely gets a moment to comprehend his deeds, with the media and government officials trying to monopolize the aftermath of the “Miracle on the Hudson”. To Captain Sully, he was just doing his job in an unreal set of circumstances. So does the team behind the re-telling of it.
As readers of my blog may have seen last week, I made my first initial round of Oscar predictions last week. Now… we move onto the next phase. Every Thursday, I will be giving my weekly updated Oscar predictions in the following categories: Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay.
When we get into the later part of the year, the list will expand to include other categories. Each Thursday, I will list 25 possibilities for Best Picture and 15 possibilities for the other races and you’ll be able to track whether the picks go up or down on a weekly basis.
Please note that if I rank something #1 in a certain race, it doesn’t mean I think it’ll win. It means I think its nomination is currently the most probable. The film festival season (especially Toronto) can and probably will alter some of these picks even next week.
Let’s get right to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1) La Land Land
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Silence
4) Fences
5) Moonlight
6) Loving
7) Manchester by the Sea
8) Nocturnal Animals
9) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
10) The Birth of a Nation
11) Lion
12) Jackie
13) Arrival
14) 20th Century Women
15) Hidden Figures
16) Sully
17) Passengers
18) Hell or High Water
19) Allied
20) Moana
21) The Founder
22) The Jungle Bok
23) Collateral Beauty
24) Gold
25) Live by Night
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1) Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2) Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Martin Scorsese, Silence
4) Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
5) Denzel Washington, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
7) Jeff Nichols, Loving
8) Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
10) Denis Villenueve, Arrival
11) Garth Davis, Lion
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
14) Pablo Larrain, Jackie
15) Mike Mills, 20th Century Women
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Denzel Washington, Fences
2) Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3) Joel Edgerton, Loving
4) Michael Keaton, The Founder
5) Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Other Possibilities:
6) Tom Hanks, Sully
7) Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8) Ryan Gosling, La La Land
9) Dev Patel, Lion
10) Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight
11) Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
12) Ewan McGregor, American Pastoral
13) Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
14) Andrew Garfield, Silence
15) Miles Teller, Bleed for This
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Emma Stone, La La Land
2) Viola Davis, Fences
3) Natalie Portman, Jackie
4) Ruth Negga, Loving
5) Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Other Possibilities:
6) Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals
7) Isabelle Huppert, Elle
8) Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
9) Amy Adams, Arrival
10) Rooney Mara, Una
11) Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
12) Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers
13) Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
14) Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
15) Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1) Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2) Liam Neeson, Silence
3) Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
4) Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5) Stephen Henderson, Fences
Other Possibilities:
6) Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
7) Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
8) Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This
9) Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply
10) Timothy Spall, Denial
11) Billy Crudup, 20th Century Women
12) Vin Diesel, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
13) John Legend, La La Land
14) Aaron Eckhart, Sully
15) Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1) Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2) Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3) Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals
4) Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5) Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold
Other Possibilities:
6) Dakota Fanning, American Pastoral
7) Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
8) Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation
9) Nicole Kidman, Lion
10) Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
11) Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan
12) Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
13) Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty
14) Margo Martindale, The Hollars
15) Laura Dern, The Founder
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Manchester by the Sea
2) Moonlight
3) La La Land
4) Loving
5) Jackie
Other Possibilities:
6) 20th Century Women
7) Hell or High Water
8) The Lobster
9) The Birth of a Nation
10) The Founder
11) Zootopia
12) Gold
13) Passengers
14) Rules Don’t Apply
15) Allied
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1) Fences
2) Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3) Nocturnal Animals
4) Silence
5) American Pastoral
Other Possibilities:
6) Lion
7) Hidden Figures
8) Arrival
9) Love & Friendship
10) The Girl on the Train
11) Elle
12) Sully
13) Live by Night
14) Denial
15) The Jungle Book
And that’ll do it for now, folks! My weekly updates will be back next Thursday…
Jennifer Lopez is given the role of a lifetime in TheBoyNextDoor. Make that – role of a Lifetime as this thriller is no different than the guilty pleasure schlock you find on that channel. The difference is that it feels better to watch that kind of material on a couch and far hidden away from the public eye. When big stars (one at least) are involved, it feels cheaper than that occasional junk food excursion into carbon copy TV movie territory.
Lopez is Claire, a recently separated English lit teacher trying to move on with her life with her teenage son (Ian Nelson). Her husband is John Corbett and he’s trying to patch things up after he was caught cheating with his secretary. It’s revealed that Claire discovered her husband’s infidelity via email and that his mistress smelled like chocolate chip cookies. Whether he meant fresh-baked or store-bought is a plot point left dangling for our collective imaginations.
The title character is 19-year-old Noah (Ryan Guzman), a new addition to the neighborhood who’s living with his elderly uncle. His parents are deceased and we see that as a red flag quickly. Same with his love of the subject Claire teaches as they ridiculously discuss Homer’s Iliad. Yeah, it’s painful. On a weekend where the rest of her family is away on a camping trip, Noah successfully seduces her. She immediately realizes it was a mistake the next morning (at least her walk of shame is short, right??). Noah doesn’t see it that way and the boy next door turns into the stalker next door.
There is hardly a moment here where the screenplay doesn’t feel as lazily choreographed as J Lo on her worst day as a “In Living Color” fly girl. There’s the supportive best friend played by the talented Kristen Chenoweth, who should have been anywhere else during the filming of this. We have Kevin being given a serious medical ailment with his allergies. I will give the script reluctant credit for not using that overused cliche in quite the way I anticipated.
Rob Cohen, who started the FastandFurious and xXx franchises, directs this low-budget enterprise with Lopez producing. Her acting is acceptable, I suppose. Guzman has plenty of moments where he overacts painfully. The screenplay is essentially an hour of finding ways for him to torment Claire and almost expose her for her one night she’d like to forget. None of them are memorable or believable. We are told a video exists of their romantic encounter and that it must be erased from his laptop, pronto!! I couldn’t help but think that any 19-year-old would have backed that thing up like J Lo in 1999 when MTV was playing her videos. With TheBoyNextDoor, you’ll want to back up an hour and a half of your time if you go down Jenny’s block here.
A number of recent Oscar Watch posts on this here blog has made one thing abundantly clear: the Best Actress race looks to be a competitive one in 2016. Already, Emma Stone (La La Land), Ruth Negga (Loving), Rooney Mara (Una), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), and Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals or Arrival) have established themselves as possibilities. And there’s still performers such as Viola Davis (Fences), Annette Bening (20th Century Women), Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), and Jennifer Lawrence (Passengers) waiting in the wings.
Yet the race potentially got more interesting at the Venice Film Festival as Jackie has screened to some rave critical reaction. A biopic of First Lady Jacqueline Onassis Kennedy, it’s directed by acclaimed Chilean filmmaker Pablo Farrain and stars Natalie Portman in the title role. Early trade reviews have been over the moon with Portman’s portrayal, with one of them claiming that it may surpass her Oscar winning work in 2010’s Black Swan.
Interestingly, unlike most biopics, this is not based on a book or series of them. Therefore, this could qualify for an Original Screenplay nod. Based on the buzz so far, the love could perhaps extend to the Picture itself and Mr. Farrain.
Yet Jackie is most likely to garner attention for the woman playing her (whether costars such as Greta Gerwig, Peter Sarsgaard and Billy Crudup get noticed remains to be seen). Portman hasn’t really had a buzzed about awards role since Swan six years ago and this appears to be just that. As long as Jackie finds a distributor to give it 2016 consideration (something that will probably occur this week), we appear to have another major factor in an already crowded category.
Four have passed since Oliver Stone released his last picture and it’s been eight years since he’s gotten political. That changes next weekend when Snowden hits theaters. This is a biopic of former CIA analyst Edward Snowden with Joseph Gordon -Levitt in the title role. A stellar supporting cast includes Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo, Tom Wilkinson, Zachary Quinto, Scott Eastwood, Timothy Olyphant, Rhys Ifans, and Nicolas Cage.
The thriller was originally set for release in December of last year before being pushed to May and, finally, September. Snowden will be a test as to whether audiences wish to spend over two hours witnessing a story well-publicized in the press and already covered in the recent documentary Citizenfour.
My feeling is the answer will be no. Political dramas often struggle at the box office and I don’t see that as an exception. My prediction is Snowden doesn’t reach double digits in its debut as many moviegoers may be getting their fill of current events on the small screen.
BridgetJones’sBaby not only marks the return of a long dormant franchise, but also the return of Oscar winner Renee Zellweger, making her first onscreen appearance in six years. It’s been twice that long since her title character has been in multiplexes.
In 2001, BridgetJones’sDiary was a solid hit, opening to $10.7 million and displaying great legs to get to $71 million domestic. It also earned its lead a Best Actress nod. The 2004 sequel, BridgetJones: TheEdgeofReason, didn’t fare as well with a $40 million eventual gross.
Besides Zellweger returning to one of her most well-known roles, Sharon Maguire (director of the original) is also back. Same with Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent. Not returning: Hugh Grant and the love triangle with Bridget and Mr. Firth is instead completed by Patrick Dempsey.
As I see it, the long wait between entries and middling performance of the second entry doesn’t bode too well here. I highly doubt this can reach the $17.8 million accomplished by MyBigFatGreekWedding2 (another long gestating rom com sequel) earlier this year. After all, the predecessor for that one made $241 million.
My prediction is this doesn’t quite reach teens for its box office birth.
Bridget Jones’s Baby opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million
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