TheGirlontheTrain isn’t the only title out next weekend based on a bestseller as MiddleSchool: TheWorstYearsofMyLife debuts. Based on James Patterson and Chris Tebbits’s 2011 book, the comedy aims to capitalize on its successful source material.
Griffin Gluck plays the middle schooler having a bad time with a supporting cast that includes Lauren Graham, Rob Riggle, and Andy Daly. Steve Carr (in his comfort zone after making other youth oriented yuck fests like Dr. Dolittle2 and PaulBlart: MallCop) directs.
My expectation is that this will have a tough time breaking through to teens. The marketing campaign has been somewhat quiet. At least the animated blockbusters this year are geared toward a pre-teen audience and their parents attend, too. School could struggle to reach double digits, resulting in middling numbers.
MiddleSchool: TheWorstYearsofMyLife opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
When Nate Parker’s The Birth of a Nation debuted at the Sundance Film Festival all the way back in January, it garnered red-hot buzz that included awards chatter. Fox Searchlight quickly snatched up the rights and it rolls out in theaters next weekend. The pic tells the true life tale of slave rebellion leader Nat Turner in 1831. Parker directed, produced, wrote, and stars in the $10 million production. Costars include Armie Hammer, Aja Naomi King, Jackie Earle Haley, Gabrielle Union, and Penelope Ann Miller.
Since its wildly successful roll out this past winter, Birth has faced an interesting and sometimes troubling journey to the wide release date. While its 82% on Rotten Tomatoes indicates the aforementioned positive critical reaction, the film has seemed to diminish in the view of Oscar forecasters. Whether that’s due to buzz waning or other worthy pictures being screened since then is an open question.
And, yes, there’s the matter of Nate Parker’s personal life stemming from a 1999 rape case and his accuser’s suicide years later. The matter has received significant publicity over the last few months. How the story affects Nation‘s box office performance obviously seems inconsequential considering the larger picture, but it must be taken into consideration for any prediction.
All of those factors have contributed to Birth losing some luster and, truth be told, my opening weekend prediction post Sundance probably would’ve been higher. I’ll predict this manages to get past double digits, but not by much.
The Birth of a Nation opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Girl on the Train prediction, click here:
Just last year, the novel The Girl on the Train by Paula Hawkins became a massive bestseller and Universal Pictures wasted no time in getting the big screen adaptation to eager audiences. The book has been described as the “next Gone Girl” and the studio would love to replicate that film adaptation’s success here.
The thriller is directed by The Help‘s Tate Taylor and stars Emily Blunt with a supporting cast that includes Rebecca Ferguson, Haley Bennett, Justin Theroux, Luke Evans, Allison Janney, Edgar Ramirez, Lisa Kudrow, and Laura Prepon.
Train should undoubtedly bring in fans of the source material (including a hefty female demographic). Yet reaching the heights of Gone Girl seems like a fairly unlikely prospect. Two years ago in the same first October weekend, the David Fincher effort earned just over $37 million out of the gate. It wouldn’t shock me to see this top $30M for its opening weekend, but I believe a mid-high 20s gross is more probable. If Train manages solid audience buzz, it could keep chugging along with smallish drops in future weekends.
The Girl on the Train opening weekend prediction: $28.2 million
For my The Birth of a Nation prediction, click here:
Four new titles roll out in wide release this weekend at the box office and they are: Mark Wahlberg’s true-life disaster pic Deepwater Horizon, Tim Burton’s YA fantasy Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children, oft delayed Zach Galifianakis/Kristin Wiig comedy Masterminds, and Disney’s Ugandan chess prodigy tale Queen of Katwe. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
As I see it, Deepwater Horizon should top Peregrine for the top spot. Both have the chance to debut higher than my predictions, but the trend over the last couple of weeks has been titles under performing and not over performing. If Magnificent Seven loses close to half its opening weekend audience, it should be third with Storks at the four spot (it should experience the smallest decline of holdovers).
My estimates for Masterminds and Queen of Katwe put them in the sixth and seventh positions with Sully holding on for another week in the top five.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my projections for the newcomers:
Deepwater Horizon – 45% Too Low, 38% Just About Right, 17% Too High
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children – 69% Too Low, 16% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Masterminds – 54% Just About Right, 46% Too Low, 0% Too High
Queen of Katwe – 50% Just About Right, 38% Too Low, 12% Too High
And with that, a top 7 predictions for this weekend:
1. Deepwater Horizon
Predicted Gross: $24.7 million
2. Miss Peregrine’s Home for the Peculiar Children
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
3. The Magnificent Seven
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Storks
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Sully
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
6. Masterminds
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
7. Queen of Katwe
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (September 23-25)
As expected, TheMagnificentSeven remake with Denzel Washington and Chris Pratt easily topped the charts, though it did come in towards the bottom end of most expectations. The Western took in $34.7 million and I went considerably higher with $47.1M. Still, the opening is in line with Washington’s TheEqualizer from two years ago.
After the animated talking animal mega-hits that were Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets – perhaps family audiences had their fill as Storks posted a debut on the lowest end of expectations. Despite positive reviews, the Warner Bros release made $21.3 million for second (below my $27.9M projection). Its best hope is for smallish declines in future weekends.
Sully dropped to third after two weeks on top with $13.5 million (under my $14.9M forecast) for a total of $92M.
Last weekend’s newcomers all posted lackluster debuts and they all experienced unimpressive second weekends as well. Bridget Jones’s Baby was fourth with $4.6 million (I said $5.1M) for a $16M total. Snowden was fifth with $4 million (I said $4.3M) for a $15M tally. Blair Witch dropped to sixth with $4 million as well (I predicted $3.4M) for a $16M overall gross.
This Sunday, I will see one of the most controversial and lauded and loved and hated artists of the 21st century in concert – Kanye West. As a music lover and hip hop fan, there are few rappers and producers that have been more influential, exciting and sometimes frustrating. Musically, I agree with his own assessment that he’s a genius.
In honor of Sunday’s concert, here are my personal top 25 Kanye tracks from his eight album discography that began in 2004 with The College Dropout and currently ends with this year’s The Life of Pablo.
Here goes:
25. “Everything I Am” from Graduation (2007)
24. “Fade” from The Life of Pablo (2016)
23. “Two Words” from The College Dropout” (2004)
22. “New Slaves” from Yeezus (2013)
21. “Last Call” from The College Dropout” (2004)
20. “Amazing” from 808s & Heartbreak (2008)
19. “All Falls Down” from The College Dropout (2004)
18. “Blood on the Leaves” from Yeezus (2013)
17. “We Major” from Late Registration” (2005)
16. “Stronger” from Graduation (2007)
15. “Famous” from The Life of Pablo (2016)
14. “Power” from My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy (2010)
13. “Heard ‘Em Say” from Late Registration (2005)
12. “Can’t Tell Me Nothing” from Graduation (2007)
11. “Gone” from Late Registration (2005)
10. “Roses” from Late Registration (2005)
9. “Monster” from My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy (2010)
8. “Flashing Lights” from Graduation (2007)
7. “Black Skinhead” from Yeezus (2013)
6. “Through the Wire” from The College Dropout (2004)
5. “N****s in Paris” from Watch the Throne (2011)
4. “Gold Digger” from Late Registration (2005)
3. “Runaway” from My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy (2010)
2. “Jesus Walks” from The College Dropout (2004)
1. “All of the Lights” from My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy (2010)
Most biographical sports films focus on football or boxing in recent years, but Disney changes it up next weekend with The Queen of Katwe. The pic tells the true-life tale of Ugandan chess master Phiona Mutesi (Madina Nalwanga). Mira Nair directs with a cast including David Oyelowo and recent Oscar winner Lupita Nyong’o.
Katwe screened at the Toronto Film Festival to positive critical reaction (it’s at 88% currently on Rotten Tomatoes). At one time, this was looked at as a potential awards hopeful yet that has been tampered down a bit (Nyong’o could be a factor in Supporting Actress, but probably not). The film comes with a rather minor $15 million budget.
Disney’s best hope is for a decent opening followed by long legs if audiences love what they see. Opening on a relatively small 1252 screens, expectations aren’t too high and I’ll predict this manages to reach $5 million for its start.
Queen of Katwe opening weekend prediction: $5 million
It’s Thursday and that means my weekly Oscar predictions are here in the eight major categories. As with previous weeks, I’m listing the Top 25 possibilities for Best Picture and Top 15 for the other races, while showing the titles and performers I believe will currently be nominated. Plus – you can also track the movement of the rankings from the previous week to now.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 4)
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
4. Silence (PR: 3)
5. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 9)
6. Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Lion (PR: 8)
8. Loving (PR: 6)
9. Hidden Figures (PR: 11)
Other Possibilities:
10. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 7)
11. Jackie (PR: 12)
12. Arrival (PR: 10)
13. Sully (PR: 14)
14. Live by Night (PR: 19)
15. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 13)
16. Hell or High Water (PR: 15)
17. 20th Century Women (PR: 16)
18. Allied (PR: 17)
19. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: Not Ranked)
20. Collateral Beauty (PR: 22)
21. The Jungle Book (PR: 25)
22. The Founder (PR: 20)
23. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 24)
24. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 23)
25. Passengers (PR: 18)
Dropped Out:
The Girl on the Train
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 3)
4. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 4)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 7)
8. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 10)
9. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 8)
10. Denis Villenueve, Arrival (PR: 9)
11. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 11)
12. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 12)
13. Clint Eastwood, Sully (PR: 14)
14. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (15)
15. Robert Zemeckis, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 2)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 6)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 5)
7. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Will Smith, Collateral Beauty (PR: 12)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (PR: 8)
10. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 14)
11. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Miles Teller, Bleed for This (PR: 15)
13. Nate Parker, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 10)
14. Dave Johns, I, Daniel Blake (PR: 13)
15. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
Bryan Cranston, Wakefield
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 9)
7. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 7)
10. Amy Adams, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
11. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 11)
12. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (PR: 12)
13. Jennifer Lawrence, Passengers (PR: 13)
14. Rooney Mara, Una (PR: 14)
15. Marion Cotillard, Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sally Hawkins, Maudie
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
3. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
4. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
5. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sunny Pawar, Lion (PR: 15)
7. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 7)
8. Aaron Eckhart, Bleed for This (PR: 14)
9. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 8)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: 6)
11. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 11)
12. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (PR: 9)
13. Timothy Spall, Denial (PR: 10)
14. Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (PR: 12)
15. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bill Nighy, Their Finest
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 3)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (PR: 5)
5. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (PR: 6)
7. Margo Martindale, The Hollars (PR: 10)
8. Helen Mirren, Eye in the Sky (PR: 7)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (PR: 8)
10. Bryce Dallas Howard, Gold (PR: 9)
11. Molly Shannon, Other People (PR: 12)
12. Helen Mirren, Collateral Beauty (PR: 15)
13. Haley Bennett, The Girl on the Train (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Aja Naomi King, The Birth of a Nation (PR: 11)
15. Julianne Moore, Maggie’s Plan (PR: 14)
Dropped Out:
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Moonlight (PR: 3)
4. Jackie (PR: 5)
5. Loving (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hell or High Water (PR: 7)
7. 20th Century Women (PR: 6)
8. The Lobster (PR: 8)
9. Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 13)
10. The Birth of a Nation (PR: 9)
11. Zootopia (PR: 10)
12. Gold (PR: Not Ranked)
13. I, Daniel Blake (PR: 11)
14. Collateral Beauty (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Allied (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rules Don’t Apply
Passengers
Miss Sloane
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Fences (PR: 1)
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 2)
3. Silence (PR: 4)
4. Lion (PR: 5)
5. Nocturnal Animals (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hidden Figures (PR: 7)
7. Arrival (PR: 6)
8. Sully (PR: 8)
9. Live by Night (PR: 12)
10. The Girl on the Train (PR: 9)
11. Elle (PR: 10)
12. Love and Friendship (PR: 11)
13. Indignation (PR: 15)
14. Denial (PR: 13)
15. The Jungle Book (PR: 14)
And that’ll do it for my Oscar predictions this week! Until next time…
At long last, the heist comedy Masterminds hits theaters next weekend after much delay. Whether or not it’s able to steal some box office dollars is very much in question. Director Jared Hess broke through in a big way 12 years ago with his sleeper hit Napoleon Dynamite. His follow-up, 2006’s Nacho Libre with Jack Black, was a critical letdown which still managed to make $80 million domestic.
Since then, Mr. Hess’s efforts have been little-seen and poorly reviewed efforts. 2009’s Gentlemen Broncos? 2015’s Don Verdean? Anyone? Masterminds had the whiff of a return to form, but it’s been mired in the financial distresses of its studio, Relativity. The pic was originally scheduled for release in August of last year and then October (hence its trailer having been around for quite some time).
The talent involved here is serious – Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, Jason Sudeikis, Kate McKinnon, and Leslie Jones. That’s three new Ghostbusters by the way – even though the ladies shot that reboot after this. Recognizable stars aside, I have a feeling that all of the delays and a fairly quiet marketing campaign will hurt Masterminds immensely.
I’m tempted to go really low — like $4 million, folks. I believe this may manage to reach a bit beyond that. Double digits seems like a reach, however.
Masterminds opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million
Nearly two years ago, Tim Burton had the second lowest grossing feature of his career (after 1994’s Ed Wood) with Big Eyes. To cushion the blow, that particular film was a low-budget drama that wasn’t expected to rank among his array of blockbusters.
Next weekend, Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children finds Burton back in more familiar territory. It’s a fantastical adventure based on a well-known property (Ransom Riggs’s 2011 bestseller) with dark themes. Sounds like a Burton flick to me! Eva Green plays the title character with a supporting cast that includes Asa Butterfield, Chris O’Dowd, Allison Janney, Rupert Everett, Terence Stamp, Judi Dench, and Samuel L. Jackson.
It’s been six years since Mr. Burton has had a massive hit – 2010’s Alice in Wonderland (he didn’t direct this year’s flop of a sequel). This is also his first blockbuster hopeful not headlined by Johnny Depp in a little while. Even though it’s based on a novel with a solid following, I’m not convinced this will break out at the box office with its lack of star power and a director whose box office potency has waned.
My Peculiar estimate has this not reaching $20 million. This is under some other prognosticators expectations and would be considered a disappointment for Burton and company.
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
The last time that director Peter Berg and Mark Wahlberg hooked up, their war drama Lone Survivor grossed a terrific $125 million domestically in early 2014. Nearly three years later, the pair have collaborated on Deepwater Horizon. This is another true-life tale focused on the 2010 BP oil rig explosion and the people who had to battle it. Costars include Kurt Russell, Kate Hudson, John Malkovich, Gina Rodriguez, and Dylan O’Brien.
With a reported budget of $156 million, Summit Entertainment better hope moviegoers flock to see the disaster pic… or they may have their own financial disaster on their hands. Early reviews have been mostly strong. It stands at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes with critics particularly praising its technical aspects.
Lone Survivor earned $37 million in its first weekend of wide release. That is probably the highest of bars for Horizon. One difference is that Survivor benefited from strong military interest that simply won’t come into play here. Still, the combination of Wahlberg with this well-known story could be enough to get this to mid 20s, in range with the opening of Captain Phillips from three years back or Fury from two years ago.
Deepwater Horizon opening weekend prediction: $24.7 million
For my Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children prediction, click here:
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