The AFI Film Festival is happening in Los Angeles and that gives us an opportunity to hear about more 2016 Oscar hopefuls. This includes the fest’s premiere and it’s an eagerly awaited one – Warren Beatty’s RulesDon’tApply.
This is the Hollywood legend’s first directorial effort in 18 years (since 1998’s well-regarded Bulworth) and first appearance on screen at all in 15 years (since 2001’s less regarded Town & Country). Anything involving Beatty is going to quickly raise questions as to its awards possibilities and this long gestating project where he portrays Howard Hughes is no exception.
It was thought for months that Mr. Beatty would compete in the Supporting Actor race until recently where a switch to Actor was announced. Reviews for Rules have been a bit mixed and even the most positive haven’t been raves. It’s at 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and chances of a Picture or Director nod seem highly unlikely. Same goes for anyone in the supporting cast that includes Lily Collins, Alden Ehrenreich, Annette Bening (she’ll get recognized anyway this year for 20thCenturyWomen), Matthew Broderick, Alec Baldwin, and others.
As for Beatty in the Best Actor category, it’s certainly no guarantee he will get nominated, but that particular race is a bit weak this year (once you get past Denzel Washington for Fences and Casey Affleck in ManchesterbytheSea). I would anticipate Beatty will be in the mix over the next several weeks, but whether he makes my final cut for the final five is a question mark.
Hey all – it’s Thursday and that means time to update Oscar predictions in the eight major categories. Since last Thursday, Denzel Washington’s eagerly awaited Fences held its first industry screenings and solidified itself as a major player this awards season. Beyond that, we’re still in a holding pattern with various titles yet to unveil themselves. That will change soon with such titles as Rules Don’t Apply, Miss Sloane, and Allied… so stay tuned as those pictures reveal themselves to be true contenders or not.
And with that, the November 10th rankings!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees
1. La La Land (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Fences (PR: 3)
3. Silence (PR: 2)
4. Moonlight (PR: 4)
5. Lion (PR: 5)
6. Manchester by the Sea (PR: 6)
7. Loving (PR: 8)
8. Jackie (PR: 7)
9. Arrival (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
10. Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
11. Hell or High Water (PR: 11)
12. 20th Century Women (PR: 12)
13. Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 13)
14. Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 15)
15. Live by Night (PR: 14)
16. Sully (PR: 16)
17. The Jungle Book (PR: 17)
18. Nocturnal Animals (PR: Not Ranked)
19. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (PR: 18)
20. Allied (PR: 19)
Dropped Out:
Florence Foster Jenkins
Best Director
Predicted Nominees
1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Martin Scorsese, Silence (PR: 2)
3. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 3)
4. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (PR: 5)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities
6. Denis Villeneueve, Arrival (PR: 6)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (PR: 7)
8. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (PR: 8)
9. Jeff Nichols, Loving (PR: 9)
10. Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (PR: 10)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Denzel Washington, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 2)
3. Joel Edgerton, Loving (PR: 3)
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (PR: 4)
5. Tom Hanks, Sully (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don’t Apply (PR: 7)
7. Andrew Garfield, Silence (PR: 6)
8. Matthew McConaughey, Gold (PR: 9)
9. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (PR: 10)
10. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (PR: 8)
Best Actress
1. Emma Stone, La La Land (PR: 1)
2. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (PR: 3)
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie (PR: 2)
4. Ruth Negga, Loving (PR: 4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities
6. Amy Adams, Arrival (PR: 5)
7. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (PR: 7)
8. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (PR: 8)
9. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Rebecca Hall, Christine (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Marion Cotillard, Allied
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees
1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (PR: 1)
2. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (PR: 3)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (PR: 4)
4. Liam Neeson, Silence (PR: 2)
5. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (PR: 8)
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (PR: 6)
8. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 7)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (PR: 5)
10. Aaron Eckhart, Sully (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Alan Rickman, Eye in the Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees
1. Viola Davis, Fences (PR: 1)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (PR: 2)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (PR: 3)
We’ve seen a number of films about the sweet science over the past few years and another one hits theaters next weekend as BleedforThis debuts. The true story tells the tale of pugilist Vinny Pazienza (Miles Teller), who looks to return to the ring after a debilitating accident. Ben Younger, who directed 2000’s well-regarded BoilerRoom, followed it up with the less regarded Uma Thurman/Meryl Streep rom com Prime, and hadn’t made a movie since – is behind the camera. Costars include Aaron Eckhart, Ciaran Hinds, Katey Sagal, and Ted Levine.
Bleed debuted at the Telluride Film Festival in September to generally positive reaction. It’s at 77% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. The boxing genre has seen some successes this decade with titles such as TheFighter and Creed. On the other hand, Southpaw and especially August’s HandsofStone struggled.
This one could face an uphill battle. Luckily for its studio, it comes with a light $6 million budget so a knockout gross isn’t really required. I anticipate a middle single digits start.
Bleed for This opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million
For my FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem prediction, click here:
Hailee Steinfeld first broke onto the film scene as a young teen in the Coen Brothers hit Western remake TrueGrit. The result? An Oscar nomination for Supporting Actress. Since then, she’s made a few screen appearances and also become a platinum selling musician.
Next weekend, she’s said to have yet another breakout role headlining TheEdgeofSeventeen, a coming of age comedic drama. The pic debuted to highly positive reviews at the Toronto Film Festival and is at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Kelly Fremon Craig directs and costars include Haley Lu Richardson, Blake Jenner, Woody Harrelson, and Kyra Sedgwick.
How it will fare at the multiplexes? Perhaps solid buzz could keep it going well in subsequent weekends, but I’m not anticipating anything above a low teens opening as the higher bar. For one thing, this is going for a teen audience who may well be preoccupied with FantasticBeastsandWhereToFindThem.
I’ll predict Seventeen hits low double digits for its start.
TheEdgeofSeventeen opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million
For my FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem prediction, click here:
Ang Lee’s war drama Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk makes its way to theaters next weekend in wide release and expectations for it have been tampered down a bit. The film, based on a bestseller by Ben Fountain, had been looked at as a major awards contender for the bulk of 2016. After all, Lee has won the Best Director prize at the Oscars twice (for Brokeback Mountain and Life of Pi) and it just looked the kind of picture that the Academy might take a liking to. Newcomer Joe Alwyn stars in the title role alongside a stellar supporting cast that includes Kristen Stewart, Chris Tucker, Garrett Hedlund, Vin Diesel, and Steve Martin.
Walk has also received significant publicity to the manner in which it was shot at 120 frames per second (translate that to very high definition). Yet something unexpected happened when this screened at the New York Film Festival nearly a month ago. Critics were sharply divided as to both its dramatic and visual quality. In fact, it stands at just 50% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. Any chances of it being an Oscar force pretty much fell along the wayside.
So where does that leave its box office prospects? Quite simply, shakier than before the buzz unfolded. If this had the aura of an Academy hopeful, it could certainly boost its grosses. Then there’s even the matter of another more critically lauded war drama having opened just two weeks prior – Mel Gibson’s Hacksaw Ridge.
The film is reportedly rolling out on a low 800 screens which would limits its prospects. Add all that up and I believe Halftime will see a debut below $10 million for just a so-so start.
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk opening weekend prediction: $9.2 million
For my Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them prediction, click here:
The wildly popular fantasy world created by J.K. Rowling is back in theaters for the first time in five years as Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them debuts next weekend. Based on a novel by the Harry Potter author, Beasts looks to create a new franchise for Warner Bros after that aforementioned wizard yielded the studio $2.3 billion dollars for the previous one. David Yates directs and he knows this universe well after making the last four Potter installments. Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne stars with a supporting cast that includes Katherine Waterston, Dan Fogler, Colin Farrell, Carmen Ejogo, Samantha Morton, Ezra Miller, Ron Perlman, and Jon Voight.
The reported $225 million production is intended as the first in a five-part series and it’s safe to say there’s a lot riding on this one. Seven of the eight Potter pics reside in the top 100 domestic earners of all time and even the lowest grossing one (Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban) made just under $250M.
So where does this first entry in a budding new franchise land? I don’t believe it’ll quite reach the $90 million that first Potter experience The Sorcerer’s Stone opened at 15 years ago. That said, a gross in low to mid $80s range out of the gate seems quite probable. I’ll predict it’ll do just that and we can expect to see plenty more wizards and muggles coming our way in the near future.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them opening weekend prediction: $83.1 million
For my Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk prediction, click here:
Three more titles make their way to the big screen this weekend as the critically lauded sci-fi pic Arrival, holiday dramedy Almost Christmas, and Naomi Watts led horror thriller Shut In debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
After the massive opening of Marvel’s Doctor Strange, it appears unlikely that any of the newbies will prevent it from a second weekend atop the charts (unless Arrival majorly over performs). Benedict Cumberbatch and company should drop in the mid 50s, which should be more than good enough for box office domination.
The real battle could be for the #2 spot as Trolls may not even lose 40% of its audience from its impressive premiere. That could leave it and Arrival in close range for runner-up status. However, the somewhat low 2200 screen count for the Amy Adams tale could push its gross to low to mid 20s.
I’m expecting Almost Christmas will have a merry 4th place debut in the high teens with Hacksaw Ridge rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.
My meager Shut In prediction at $5.7 million leaves it outside the top 5 and likely in the 6th spot.
Here’s how the blog readers feel about my opening weekend takes on the newbies:
Arrival – 41% Too Low, 35% Just About Right, 24% Too High
Almost Christmas – 46% Just About Right, 31% Too Low, 23% Too High
Shut In – 60% Just About Right, 40% Too Low, 0% Too High
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the busy weekend ahead:
1. Doctor Strange
Predicted Gross: $37.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)
2. Trolls
Predicted Gross: $28.6 million (representing a drop of 38%)
3. Arrival
Predicted Gross: $22.4 million
4. Almost Christmas
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
5. Hacksaw Ridge
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 41%)
Box Office Results (November 4-6)
As predicted, Doctor Strange posted the 10th highest debut (out of 14) of the Marvel Cinematic Universe thus far, though it managed to top my estimate. The well-reviewed superhero origin tale brought in a terrific $85 million compared to my $77.3M prognosis for what is surely another franchise for the studio.
Dreamworks Animation has reason to smile as Trolls also exceeded expectations to the tune of $46.5 million (ahead of my $34.6M estimate) for a hair raising second place debut. Look for this to play well throughout the month and reach an eventual domestic gross close to $150M.
And the third newcomer of the weekend also performed solidly as Mel Gibson’s acclaimed war drama Hacksaw Ridge made $15.1 million (outpacing my $12.1M projection). The pic stands a good chance of playing well throughout awards season.
After two weeks unexpectedly at #1, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween fell to fourth with $7.7 million. My prediction? $7.7M! It’s earned $64M total.
Inferno continued to its ice cold performance in weekend #2 with $6.1 million (I said $6.8M) to bring its tally to just $25M.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
The review embargo lapsed today on Disney newest animated creation, Moana, which hits screens November 23rd. The musical comedy comes from the studio’s acclaimed directors John Musker and Ron Clements, the men responsible for Mouse Factory classics like The Little Mermaid and Aladdin. The film’s songs were co-written by Lin-Manuel Miranda, the man responsible for a little Broadway show called Hamilton.
Not too surprisingly, early reviews suggest this is another Disney triumph. The girl power tale (a staple of the studio as of late – think Brave and Frozen) stands at 100% on the Tomato Meter. It’s been long thought that Moana could be a major player in the Best Animated Feature category at the Oscars and today’s buzz certainly solidifies that.
That said, Moana is not a slam dunk when it comes to winning the race and that’s due to competition from (you guessed it!)… Disney. This spring, the studio put out the critically heralded mega-hit Zootopia and it definitely stands a chance at the big prize.
Either way, expect to see at least two of the studio’s pics among the five to be nominated with Finding Dory possibly swimming its way into the mix as well.
Another key piece in the 2016 Oscar puzzle came into sharper focus this weekend as Fences had its first industry screening. Based on the acclaimed August Wilson play (he also penned the script) for which Denzel Washington and Viola Davis won Tony Awards, Mr. Washington directs and stars in the adaptation.
It’s not out until Christmas and reviews are embargoed for another few weeks, but initial reaction out yesterday indicates this will be a major player in the awards derby. This holds true especially for Denzel in the lead Actor race and Davis in Supporting Actress. For months, it was thought that Davis would compete in the lead Actress field. However, a couple weeks back, that designation was shifted. The reasoning could have to do with the significant competiveness of Actress where Annette Bening (20thCenturyWomen), Natalie Portman (Jackie), and Emma Stone (LaLaLand) are assured nominees who should battle it out for the gold. Supporting Actress appears less packed and Davis looks to be the current front runner. Same goes for Denzel in the Actor race, which would give him his third golden statue.
The early buzz also bodes well for Fences getting Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay nods. Yet not everything is totally clear cut. There are three performances that could compete in Supporting Actor: Jovan Adepo, Stephen Henderson, and Mykelti Williamson (yes, Bubba from ForrestGump). In my weekly Oscar predictions posts, I’ve given Henderson the edge. Last night may have changed my thinking as both Williamson and Adepo have garnered seemingly greater chatter. There’s the possibility of two of these gentlemen getting in or just one or perhaps the trio canceling each other out (less likely).
One thing is for sure: Fences has been on the radar of Academy Awards predictors for quite some time and this weekend only increased the visibility.
Marvel’s DoctorStrange is their latest superhero origin story and it focuses on a brilliant yet arrogant protagonist who learns that his real purpose is to help humanity and not just use his powers for his own personal glorification. If that sounds a bit like IronMan, the first entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, you wouldn’t be wrong. The challenge for Disney’s multi-billion dollar franchise after 14 films is to inject enough newness and other positive aspects to support its existence. In that sense, the sometimes visually stunning and very well-cast Strange passes the test.
Our newest fella to join the caped club (and it’s a pushy and sometimes humorous cape we eventually discover) is first seen as genius neurosurgeon Dr. Stephen Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch). He’s an egotistical NYC doc who’s a wizard with his hands. His two most prized possessions are irreparably injured in a wreck that serves as the most expensive anti-distracted driving commercial ever shot. The doc’s colleague and former flame Christine (Rachel McAdams) tries to help, but his desperate search to cure his idle hands leads him to Nepal. That is where he finds a mystical compound led by the Ancient One (Tilda Swinton), who informs him that true healing comes from a lot more than surgery.
Together with her trusty sidekick Mordo (Chiwetel Ejiofor), they show the doctor a whole new universe that involves plenty of training and plenty of other crazy dimensions that are packed with some pretty sweet visual effects. Scott Derrickson, known primarily for horror titles like TheExorcismofEmilyRose and Sinister, directs his biggest budget several times over and assures himself future tent poles.
There’s a main villain and he’s Kaecilius, played by a game Mads Mikkelsen. MCU movies have often seen the bad guy be the weakest link and that holds true somewhat here. The character is a former Ancient One protege gone astray and there’s nothing too memorable about him. It’s not a major hindrance at all, however, as Strange is a genuine origin story that needs some time to establish this part of the MCU (The Avengers are only referenced in passing). Plus, don’t we know at this point that the primary villain in these origin stories rarely end up being the chief nemesis anyway?
Casting is key. This series of movies we now see at least two of per year may have never gotten off the ground without the impeccable casting of Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark. And Cumberbatch is a fine choice in this title role, effortlessly balancing the drama and humor of the screenplay. Swinton and Ejiofor add some heft as well. The slight romantic subplot between Strange and Christine is typical and unremarkable, though their interaction does provide a couple of solid operating room laughs.
The aforementioned newness here is the effects, including various scenes of Inception-like architectural bravura that may leave Nolan proud. That, coupled with the performers, elevate Strange to a level well worthy of recommendation. It may not be until after the credits (and mid and post credit bonus sequences) roll, that you realize how familiar its story actually is. And I suppose that’s a credit to the franchise makers of how strong and steady their hand actually is.
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