Jason Statham starred in one of the biggest sequels of 2015 with Furious 7. He is highly unlikely to repeat himself this year as Mechanic: Resurrection hits screens next weekend. This is a follow-up to 2011’s The Mechanic, a remake of a 1972 Charles Bronson vehicle that performed fairly modestly with an $11.4 million opening and $29.1 million overall domestic gross. Frankly, I’m not really sure why this warrants a sequel.
The supporting cast includes Jessica Alba, Tommy Lee Jones, and Michelle Yeoh with Dennis Gansel taking over directorial duties from Simon West. While the past five years has given its star more exposure with hits like the aforementioned seventh Furious entry and Spy, I doubt that will be enough for Resurrection to rise above what its predecessor even earned. Heck, this isn’t even the most high-profile sequel ending in the word “Resurrection” (as Ripley and Winona Ryder could tell you).
In this same late August weekend last year, similar genre type pic Hitman: Agent 47 made $8.3 million. That actually seems about right for this and I’ll predict it just tops that unimpressive number.
Mechanic: Resurrection opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
A year after Woody Allen felt London calling in 2005’s MatchPoint instead of his usual New York stories, he returned to the British city a year later in Scoop. It isn’t a picture talked about too much in his extensive catalogue and ten years later, I’ve learned there’s pretty good reason for it.
The aforementioned Point was a pivotal comeback work for Woody and also provided a role for Scarlett Johansson that she was perfect for. Here she’s rather miscast as mousy journalism student Sondra on London holiday. When she attends a magic show by Sid or “The Great Splendini” (Allen), she’s called onstage for the whole disappear in the box act. When she gets in, she’s greeted by the spirit of a recently killed famous journalist (Ian McShane). He has information on London’s famed Tarot Card Killer that he believes to be hunky aristocrat and aspiring politician Peter (Hugh Jackman). Naturally, Sondra falls for him as she’s investigating the case along with Sid as the “did he or didn’t he?” mystery plays itself out.
Woody dabbling in murder mystery hijinks is nothing new. He did it seriously in 1989’s terrific CrimesandMisdemeanors and with far more laughs in 1993’s ManhattanMurderMystery. When we talk of Mr. Allen’s extensive filmography, there’s his dramatic work and his hilarious stuff. Scoop is one that wants to be on the hilarious side, but is too slight and inconsequential to succeed. Anything with Allen dropping one-liners is going to have its bright spots and they exist here. The best dialogue belongs to him. It does move along briskly, too. And his career long obsession with death is intact here. Yet, as mentioned, Johansson is a little out of her element and Jackman has little to do other than veer between kinda charming and maybe sinister. It’s not bad (the director rarely does bad), but it is forgettable.
Ten years after Scoop, it’s simple to see why it’s been lost in the shuffle. And I say that with all due respect.
As the summer movie season beings to close out, three new titles open Friday and they could all experience similar grosses. They are the big-budget Ben-Hur remake, animated fantasy Kubo and the Two Strings, and Jonah Hill/Miles Teller action comedy War Dogs. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each here:
The difference in predictions between the trio of newcomers is a scant $3.6 million. I have Kubo edging out the others with Ben-Hur closely behind and War Dogs a bit further down.
As for where my loyal blog readers see my predictions: 53% currently feel my Kubo estimate is Just About Right with 30% saying Too High and 17% saying Too Low. 43% say Just About Right on Ben-Hur with 30% saying Too High and 27% saying Too Low. Those numbers for Hur show the unpredictability as to what it might accomplish or not accomplish. As for War Dogs, a whopping 61% think I’m Too Low with 39% saying Just About Right. A whole ZERO percent think I’m Too High on it.
Suicide Squad experienced a hefty decline in its sophomore frame. It shouldn’t be quite as big in its third weekend, but I still estimate it losing in the mid-50s. That should still keep at #1, unless one of the newcomers tops my forecast (which is certainly possible).
The story of this past weekend was the huge opening of Sausage Party (more on that below). I have it losing just over half its audience in weekend #2. Then there’s Disney’s Pete’s Dragon, which experienced a disappointing debut. Its “A” Cinemascore grade could mean a fairly soft decline, unless Kubo takes a nice portion of its family audience away (also possible). If it drops 40% or more, that would put Pete and his green friend in sixth place.
Bottom line: this is one unpredictable weekend where the grosses could be tightly bunched together. Here’s my top 6 predictions on how I believe it will play out:
Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
Predicted Gross: $17 million
3. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
4. Ben-Hur
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million
5. War Dogs
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
6. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $12.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (August 12-14)
As expected, Suicide Squad dropped precipitously in its second weekend but managed to stay atop the box office rather easily with $43.5 million (a touch below my $45.7M prediction) for a total of $222 million. Its 67% dip isn’t quite as pronounced as Batman v Superman‘s 69%, but consider that the Caped Crusader/Man of Steel battle earned $33M more out of the gate than Harley Quinn and company.
The real fiesta was happening over at Columbia Pictures as Seth Rogen’s critically acclaimed raunchy animated Sausage Party produced a gross of $34.2 million. This was on the absolute highest end of expectations (as I totally underestimated it with $19.4M). Making its $30 million budget back in one weekend, expect a sequel to this and some other R rated ‘toons heading your way in the future.
Pete’s Dragon did not bring (or breathe, if you will) the kind of fire normally reserved for Disney live-action remakes. It opened in third with a muted $21.5 million (under my $29.8M estimate), despite solid reviews and its studio pedigree. Family audiences have had plenty to see this summer and the fact that this property was based on one of Disney’s lesser known properties clearly hurt.
Jason Bourne held nicely in weekend 3 with $13.8 million (ahead of my $11.4M forecast) for a total of $127M. Holding even better was Bad Moms in its third frame with $11.3 million (above my $9.3M prognosis) for a very good $71M.
Finally, Meryl Streep’s Florence Foster Jenkins debuted in 8th place with a quiet $6.6 million (I went a bit higher with $8.2M). Interestingly, that’s the exact same figure that Streep’s Ricki and the Flash opened with a year ago.
And that will do it for now, folks! Until next time…
You may not be aware, but one of 2016’s best reviewed pictures came out in limited release this weekend with HellorHighWater. The modern day Western/heist thriller debuted at the Cannes Film Festival a few months back to positive buzz and further critical reaction has solidified its reputation. Directed by David Mackenzie and starring Jeff Bridges, Chris Pine, and Ben Foster, it stands at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Hell’s biggest hurdle could be breaking out with audiences and being widely known enough to garner attention from Oscar voters. It’s probably on the outside looking in, but if its admirers and CBS Films mount a campaign, who knows? I would say its best shot at Academy attention won’t be the film, director, or performers – but screenwriter Taylor Sheridan in Original Screenplay. This is his second acclaimed script in as many years as he penned 2015’s Sicario.
Bottom line: HellorHighWater has an uphill climb for nominations, but it’s got better than a snowball’s chance.
The animation division of Focus Features/Laika hopes for another solid performer as Kubo and the Two Strings plays theaters next weekend. The 3D stop-motion fantasy set in ancient Japan features a number of recognizable actors voicing the action, including Charlize Theron, Matthew McConaughey, Ralph Fiennes, Rooney Mara, and OG Sulu George Takei.
Travis Knight directs and he’s served as lead animator for all of Laika’s previous efforts. Those would be: 2009’s Coraline, which opened with $16.8 million; 2012’s ParaNorman, which debuted at $14 million; and 2014’s The Boxtrolls, which premiered with $17.2 million.
Those are some pretty consistent numbers and I believe Kubo should fall right in line with them. In fact, I believe Two Strings has a good shot at just outpacing its two competitors opening against it: the pricey Ben-Hur remake and Jonah Hill action/comedy War Dogs. My prediction puts this right at where Coraline got things started seven years ago and Boxtrolls left things two years back.
Kubo and the Two Strings opening weekend prediction: $17 million
Director Todd Phillips brings his comedic sensibilities overseas in War Dogs, opening next weekend. It stars Jonah Hill and Miles Teller in the true life story of two dudes who make it big as arms dealers in Afghanistan. Ana de Armas and Hangover headliner Bradley Cooper are in the supporting cast.
Trailers and TV spots haven’t been shy about advertising that this comes from the Hangover team. Hill is a known commodity in the genre and he could help turnout. A few years back, just the involvement of Phillips would be a major box office pull. In the middle of the first and second Hangover, it even helped Due Date reached a gross of $100 million. Of course, the participation of Robert Downey, Jr. and Zach Galifianakis didn’t hurt. I’m skeptical the director’s name carries as much weight now, especially since his signature franchise ran out of steam.
I suspect War Dogs could have trouble finding a wide audience. War comedies can have a tough road. You can ask Tina Fey and the team behind this spring’s Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, which faltered with only $7.4 million in its debut. Or George Clooney and the makers of 2009’s The Men Who Stare at Goats, which premiered with $12.7 million. This should manage to top that by a bit, but I’ll predict low teens for a lackluster start.
War Dogs opening weekend prediction: $13.4 million
Timur Berkmambetov’s $100 million remake of Ben-Hur chariots into theaters next weekend and it represents a massive and expensive risk from Paramount Pictures. The Biblical epic has actually been produced numerous times, though most famously in 1959 in the Oscar-winning Charlton Heston extravaganza.
This time around, Jack Huston is the title character with Morgan Freeman, Toby Kebbell, Nazanin Bonialdi, and Rodrigo Santoro (as Jesus) among the supporting cast. The director is best known for 2008’s hit Wanted and 2012’s Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter.
Early reports have signaled a bumpy road ahead for this with projections in the mid-teens. For starters, people who are in their mid-teens and even older aren’t overly familiar with the source material. More mature audiences who hold the 1959 pic in high regard may not be clamoring for an action fueled remake. It begs the question: who will turn out for this?
Paramount is likely hoping Christian moviegoers will show up. That could be its best hope at hitting $20 million or over. Yet I’m skeptical. The stories indicating a weak teens opening will probably turn out to be accurate in my judgment and that means a costly flop for the studio. The similarly themed Gods of Egypt bombed with just $14.1 million earlier this year. I’ll say manages to slightly outdo that, but not by much.
Jeff Nichols’ MidnightSpecial is an occasionally very effective family drama masquerading as a sci-fi genre piece. None of the elements contained here are really fresh, but the writer/director manages to find ways to the audience intrigued with some stellar performances to boot.
The pic tells the story of Alton Meyer (Jacob Lieberher), an eight year old Texas boy seemingly kidnapped by his father Roy (Michael Shannon). Alas, it’s not so simple. The young lad holds supernatural powers that his father knows gives him a far greater cause than he can fathom. If Dad were to tell others that his son’s eyes light up, he means it differently than most. Alton has spent the past couple of years in the care of a religious cult who believe he can predict the end times. The United States government are fearful that he’s a weapon. They’re both chasing him as Roy and his state trooper buddy (Joel Edgerton) try to get Alton where he needs to be. Mom (Kirsten Dunst) eventually enters the frame as well.
Part of the joy of MidnightSpecial is the genuine unpredictability that pervades the first half especially. The story reveals itself gradually as our protagonists speed along to a destination unknown for the majority of its running time. Shannon has appeared in all four Nichols features. He may not look like your typical leading man these days (he may have been more at home in the 70s), but he has again and again proven his ability to carry a film. Lieberher is understated and effective and all aforementioned supporting players do fine work. This also extends to Adam Driver as a sympathetic NSA operative (not a movie term used often for that profession).
By the director’s own telling, this is partly an homage to the 1970s/80s genre masters before him like Spielberg and John Carpenter (the score could have been composed by him). When we reach the third act, it’s still engaging even if a sense of familiarity and an anti-climactic tone chimes in. For more overt sci-fi throwbacks to the era Nichols is celebrating, we have Super8 and now Netflix’s “Stranger Things”. The most rewarding moments here lie in the drama of a father’s love for his son and willingness to do anything for him. Anything in the universe.
Three new pics enter the marketplace in the second weekend of August as Disney’s live-action remake Pete’s Dragon, Seth Rogen’s raunchy animated Sausage Party, and Meryl Streep biopic Florence Foster Jenkins debut. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
None, in my view, will earn enough to dethrone Suicide Squad from a second weekend atop the charts. If Pete’s Dragon over performs, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that it could place first, but my sub $30M forecast makes that scenario unlikely to me. The big question is how far will Squad fall in its sophomore frame after a record premiere (more on that below). I don’t believe it’ll dip quite as far as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did earlier this year (69%), though it could be close and in the mid 60s.
As for Sausage Party, I look for it to almost reach $20M for a third place showing (solid considering its reported $30M budget). Truth be told, this Party is a bit of a wild card. I could see it doing $25M or $15M so I pretty much split the difference.
I’ll predict Mila Kunis and company have the smallest drop this weekend and that could put Bad Moms in a race with Jason Bourne (both in their third weekends) for the #4 position (though I’ll give Mr. Damon the edge by a couple million). As for Bad Singer Florence Foster Jenkins, its relatively low 1500 screen count has me putting it in sixth.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
Suicide Squad
Predicted Gross: $45.7 million
2. Pete’s Dragon
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. Sausage Party
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Jason Bourne
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Bad Moms
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
6. Florence Foster Jenkins
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
As far as where my readers currently think I am with predictions on the newcomers:
A hefty 69% think I’m Too Low on Pete’sDragon, 24% think Just About Right, and just 7% Too High
56% think I’m Too Low on SausageParty, 23% Too High, 21% Just About Right
FlorenceFosterJenkins: 54% Too Low, 31% Just About Right, 15% Too High
Box Office Results (August 5-7)
SuicideSquad easily broke the August opening weekend record (by nearly $40 million) as it earned $133.6 million. The DC comics adaptation was subject to mostly negative reviews. Mine was more mixed and you can read it here:
Squad did not quite match my goal of $144.3M that I had it at. The biggest worry from Warner Bros could be how far it drops in weekend 2, as discussed above. Its large dip from Friday to Saturday could be a sign of things to come.
Jason Bourne fell to second in weekend #2, tumbling further than I anticipated with a gross of $22.4 million compared to my $27.1M forecast. The fifth entry in the franchise has earned $103M so far.
Bad Moms experienced a nice hold for third at $14 million (above my $12.1M projection) for a two-week total of $50M.
The Secret Life of Pets was fourth with $11.5 million (slightly above my $10.6M estimate) for a whopping total of $319M.
Star Trek Beyond rounded out the top five with $10 million (I said $10.8M) for a tally of $127M.
Finally, the level of anticipation for a horribly reviewed Kevin Spacey cat reincarnation movie was under my guess. Nine Lives debuted in sixth with $6.2 million and under my generous $9.8M prediction.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
It may be called Keanu with an adorable kitten named after the actor who gave us Neo/Johnny Utah/John Wick, but the debut feature starring Comedy Central’s “Key and Peele” could’ve been titled GeorgeMichael as well. The iconic 1980s British crooner gets his props throughout this action comedy that may have felt right at home in theaters when “Faith” and “Father Figure” were burning up the charts.
The duo’s basic cable program was a rather groundbreaking show with some truly inspired bits. You won’t really find that here. Instead, Keanu is a breezy if rather forgettable tale of the tail of the cat who captures the hearts of everyone who comes in contact with it. Jordan Peele is Rell, who’s depressed after his girlfriend broke up with him when that darn kitty comes into his possession. His best bud/cousin Clarence (Keegan-Michael Key) is stuck in a dull middle class existence with a bored wife (Nia Long) who’s out of town for the weekend. The pair soon learn that Keanu is actually the property of a drug kingpin whose employees were recently mowed down by assassins known as The Allentown Boys (also played by Key and Peele). Before you know it, Rell and Clarence are posing as them in an effort to get the kidnapped Keanu back.
Their journey brings them to the underground L.A. drug scene and a crew led by Cheddar (Method Man) and Hi-C (Tiffany Haddish), who Rell has the hots for. Of course, they need nifty nicknames, too. Tectonic and Shark Tank suffice. As they try to find that fabulously cute feline, the guys teach some criminals the joys of George Michael in a humorous bit that just keeps going and going.
Maybe that’s part of the problem here. The shark out of water premise of Keanu barely can sustain itself for 100 minutes. There are moments sprinkled throughout that work well. An unexpected cameo from ScaryMovie lead Anna Faris is amusing. Key and Peele do succeed in proving that their charisma on the small screen translates to the big one. And, yes, that kitten really is a gem. Yet the concept of these guys having to “get hard” (to borrow a phrase from a far worse Kevin Hart vehicle that uses similar plotting) is a rather familiar one. This is a talented pair at work, though. I wouldn’t hesitate to sign up when they get “One More Try”, as that hit song says from Mr. Michael.
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