Box Office Predictions: March 11-13

Four new titles debut this weekend at the box office to try and challenge Zootopia after its record breaking debut. They are: semi-sequel 10 Cloverfield Lane, Sacha Baron Cohen comedy The Brothers Grimsby, Biblical drama The Young Messiah, and rom com The Perfect Match. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

As I see it, Disney’s Zootopia should fairly easily control the #1 spot for the second weekend in a row, unless Cloverfield significantly exceeds my prognosis. The real battle among the newcomers could be for the #3 slot and I have Messiah slightly edging Grimsby. The number five position could be a battle between holdovers London Has Fallen and Deadpool as I believe the former will have a higher percentage dropoff than the latter. Opening on a limited number of screens, my $4.1M prediction for The Perfect Match should keep it outside the top six.

And with that, my top 6 predictions for this weekend:

Zootopia

Predicted Gross: $41.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)

2. 10 Cloverfield Lane

Predicted Gross: $28.3 million

3. The Young Messiah

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. The Brothers Grimsby

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

5. London Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

6. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (March 4-6)

Disney had a banner weekend as Zootopia had the largest traditional animation opening ever for the studio at a blazing $75 million, soaring past my meager $54.4M projection. The animal tale can also claim highest animated debut for the month of March. As mentioned, it should easily stampede its competitors and remain in first next weekend.

Action sequel London Has Fallen couldn’t match its predecessor Olympus Has Fallen‘s $30M premiere from three years ago. The badly reviewed follow-up earned $21.6 million, under my $24.6M prediction and I look for it to lose over half its audience in its sophomore frame.

Deadpool dropped to third with $16.7 million (in line with my $16.9M estimate) for an incredible tally of $311M.

Tina Fey’s so-so reviewed war comedy Whiskey Tango Foxtrot had a soft opening for fourth with $7.4 million, a tad below my $8.4M projection.

In fifth, box office dud Gods of Egypt took a nosedive from its dismal debut last weekend with $5.1 million (I was slightly kinder with $5.8M) for a total of $23M.

Finally, British horror offering The Other Side of the Door opened in limited fashion with only $1.2 million (compared to my $2.1M estimate) for just 16th place.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

The Perfect Match Box Office Prediction

Rom com The Perfect Match hopes to line up moviegoers when it debuts next weekend. Music video director and Honey maker Bille Woodruff is behind the camera with Terrence J, Cassie Ventura, Donald Faison, Paula Patton, Lauren London, Joe Pantoliano, and Brandy Norwood among the cast members.

Lionsgate is hopeful the flick will reach its intended African American audience and these movies often do significantly exceed expectations. Having said that, Match does seem to have a limited footprint in its marketing campaign and I’m not sure this half of the $9 million that Baggage Claim, a similarly themed pic, did three years ago. It also doesn’t that it’s opening on only a reported 850 screens that must be accounted for as well.

The Perfect Match opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

The Young Messiah Box Office Prediction

Two weeks before the Easter holiday, faith based drama The Young Messiah rises in theaters next weekend hoping to take advantage of the season. Produced by Home Alone and Harry Potter helmer Chris Columbus, Messiah features Adam Greaves-Neal as a young Jesus with Sean Bean costarring.

Shot for a reported small budget of $16.8 million, this shouldn’t have much trouble recouping costs and then some (especially if it experiences meager declines in weekends two and three, which seems feasible). These Christian themed pics are typically tough to project and often do open larger than expected. Just in mid February, Risen (a similarly themed tale appealing to the same audience) took in $11.8 million. That seems a reasonable range for Messiah.

I’ll say it reaches just beyond that and, in doing so, I have it debuting even higher than Sacha Baron Cohen’s The Brothers Grimsby opening against it.

The Young Messiah opening weekend prediction: $12.7 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Brothers Grimsby prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-brothers-grimsby-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

The Brothers Grimsby Box Office Prediction

Sacha Baron Cohen is back in his first starring role in nearly four years with action comedy The Brothers Grimsby and the effort looks to be a real test of his drawing power. From Now You See Me director Louis Leterrier and costarring Mark Strong, Penelope Cruz, Rebel Wilson, Ian McShane, Isla Fisher, and Gabourey Sidibe – Grimsby may represent a low mark for Cohen’s headlining output.

He burst onto the film scene in 2006 with Borat to the tune of a $26 million opening and improved those numbers with Bruno‘s $30 million premiere three years. His last vehicle, 2012’s The Dictator, managed $17 million out of the gate. That number would probably be on the higher end of expectations for this, which is managing an OK 50% on Rotten Tomaotes and looks unlikely to be a breakout hit like he’s experienced in years past.

While Grimsby should reach double digits, I believe it may not get much beyond that for a disappointing haul.

The Brothers Grimsby opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million

For my 10 Cloverfield Lane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/10-cloverfield-lane-box-office-prediction/

For my The Young Messiah prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-young-messiah-box-office-prediction/

For my The Perfect Match prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/03/the-perfect-match-box-office-prediction/

10 Cloverfield Lane Box Office Prediction

Is it a sequel? Is it not a sequel? Audiences will find out next Friday when the mysterious 10 Cloverfield Lane debuts. Producer J.J. Abrams (you may have heard of him) describes the picture as a “blood relative” to 2008’s Cloverfield, the sci fi found footage monster flick which scored with audiences to the tune of a $40 million opening. Its final domestic gross was $80M.

This kind of, sort of sequel is as steeped in mystery as its predecessor was eight years ago. Mary Elizabeth Winstead and John Goodman star and the effective survivalist bunker trailer and TV spots (including a Super Bowl ad) have genre lovers quite curious.

How that interest generates to its debut is a bit up in the air. As shown above, the original had a splashy opening but fell quickly (it’s not often a film’s opening weekend is responsible for half its overall take). 10 Cloverfield Lane is not expected to match what the 2008 iteration made, but it could still make a tidy sum.

My suspicion is that this will at least make half of the $40 million Cloverfield did out of the gate and could even threaten to top $30 million. I’ll predict it doesn’t quite get there and an opening in the mid to higher 20s seems more probable.

10 Cloverfield Lane opening weekend prediction: $28.3 million