Month: February 2016

Risen Box Office Prediction

Biblical drama Risen graces theaters next weekend and it should continue the unpredictable nature of how faith based features perform. Directed by Kevin Reynolds (best known in the 90s for Kevin Costner pics Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves and Waterworld), Risen stars Joseph Fiennes (recently in the headlines for being cast as Michael Jackson in a film), Tom Felton, Peter Firth, and Cliff Curtis.

The film focuses on the uprising caused by the rumors of a risen Jesus Christ in Jerusalem. Columbia Pictures would be thrilled to see this approach the $25 million opening that Son of God managed two years ago.

I’m a bit skeptical that it will. As mentioned, these Bible themed features are often unpredictable when it comes to grosses because it’s tough to determine how much of the church crowd will turn out. If this approached $20 million, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked. I also wouldn’t be totally surprised if it struggle to get past double digits. I’ll say a gross in the mid teens is most feasible.

Risen opening weekend prediction: $14.2 million

For my Race prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/race-box-office-prediction/

For my The Witch prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/11/the-witch-box-office-prediction/

The Night Before Movie Review

Far from a Christmas comedy classic nor a lump of coal, The Night Before gives us a drug fueled holiday happening from the team of Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg. They’ve penned better work in the form of Superbad, Pineapple Express, and This is the End and this is more on the level (though not tone) of the hit or miss humor of The Interview.

Before centers on three friends who have a Christmas Eve tradition of spending their time together after Ethan’s (Joseph Gordon Levitt) parents died. His supportive buddies are Isaac (Rogen) and Chris (Anthony Mackie) and they’ve agreed that their 14th year of buddying up will be their last. Isaac is married and ready to become a first time dad and Chris is a famous NFL player. Their lives are moving on while Ethan remains aimless, especially after a recent breakup with the lovely Lizzy Caplan. The boys make sure their final excursion is hopefully a memorable one when Ethan scores tickets to the Nutcracker Ball, an NYC kick ass bash they’ve only heard about in mythological terms.

Getting there is a challenge for many reasons. Isaac’s wife (Jillian Bell, who stole scenes in 22 Jump Street and does here) gives him a night to let his freak flag fly and that means lots of narcotics. Chris gets caught up with the wrong woman and is preoccupied with impressing his newer celebrity friends. Ethan is struggling with the knowledge that life’s traditions are changing.

While The Night Before is centered on these sometimes not so wise men, some supporting players shine. This holds especially true for Michael Shannon’s drug dealer character, who seems to possess powers even more potent than his weed. Mindy Kaling amusingly turns up and there’s some fairly effective (if obvious) celebrity cameos sprinkled in.

The proceedings don’t really pick up steam until close to the hour mark and what comes before it is often ho (ho) hum. Ethan and Chris’s storylines are just OK and the biggest guffaws come from Isaac on his pharmaceutically fueled journey. One wonders how good this could’ve been if it focused solely on him. The Night Before has its laughs to be sure, but it’s on the lower end of what these writers have accomplished before.

**1/2 (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: February 12-14

Three potential heavy hitters open this joint President’s/Valentine’s Day weekend: R rated superhero pic Deadpool, Ben Stiller comedy sequel Zoolander No. 2, and Dakota Johnson rom com How to Be Single. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

The new trio is likely to place 1-3 on the charts with current two week champ Kung Fu Panda 3 slipping to fourth and Hail, Caesar! probably rounding out the top five after a fairly lackluster debut.

Deadpool seems to be the one generating the most heat and it should dominate with Zoolander and Single in a close contest for second. With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Please note these predictions are for the three day weekend and do not include the Monday President’s Day…

  1. Deadpool

Predicted Gross: $58.2 million

2. Zoolander No. 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. How to Be Single

Predicted Gross: $18.7 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 3

Predicted Gross: $14 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. Hail, Caesar!

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Box Office Results (February 5-7)

As expected, Dreamworks animated Kung Fu Panda 3 stayed atop the charts while all three newcomers came in below my estimates. Panda earned $21.2 million, right in line with my $21.6M projection for a two week total of $69 million.

The Coen Brothers star studded comedy Hail, Caesar! had a ho hum $11.3 million debut, under my $14.3M prediction. While critics were mostly happy with it, Cinemascore audiences only gave it a dismal C- grade – hence my projection that it will lose over half its audience next weekend.

Holdovers Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant essentially tied for third, with each earning $6.9 million. The Revenant  (which was officially fourth) came in a bit below my $8.3M estimate and its total is at $149M. I incorrectly had Star Wars (officially third) outside of the top five and it has amassed $905M at press time.

The Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Choice had a limp debut in fifth with $6 million. I gave it too much credit with $9.6M. Same goes for newbie Pride and Prejudice and Zombies which placed sixth with only $5.3 million compared to my $8.1M projection.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

A Boost for The Revenant

Last night, the Directors Guild of America bestowed their Best Director honor and it went to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for his work in The Revenant. It follows his win at the Golden Globes. This is the second year in a row that the DGA has honored Mr. Inarritu after his victory for Birdman in 2014.

So what does this mean for the Oscars taking place three weeks from today? Well, it certainly gives Inarritu a leg up over over his competitors George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road), Adam McKay (The Big Short), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), and Lenny Abrahamson (Room). The DGA winner and Oscar winner have matched 21 out of 25 times since 1990. That’s 84%, folks. It is probably reasonable to say that he is the front runner to win come Oscar night. If so, he will be the first auteur to win back to back golden statues in 65 years, since Joseph L. Mankiewicz in 1949 and 1950.

As for whether that translates to a Best Picture win for The Revenant, that question is murkier. While the Picture recipient matches up more often than not with the Director victor, that hasn’t been the case for two of the last three years. While Inarritu’s Birdman did win the big prize a year ago, Ang Lee took Director in 2012 for Life of Pi while Argo won Picture. In 2013, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity work made him a winner while 12 Years a Slave took Picture. As I see it, 2015’s Picture race is still a close call between The Revenant, Spotlight, and The Big Short.

Bottom line: the DGA provided a boost for The Revenant’s maker to be honored in three weeks for the second time in as many years.

Steve Jobs Movie Review

Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs is a masterwork in editing, use of music, and fine performances doused with the dialogue that is unmistakably that of Aaron Sorkin. The man in the title, played by Michael Fassbender, is presented as he’s often said to have been: frustrating. There are certainly times in this picture where the audience will be angry at Mr. Jobs and Sorkin’s script doesn’t sugarcoat his considerable flaws, which include his inability to acknowledge his own daughter. At the same time, this is a work that appreciates its central character, imperfections and all.

The film is constructed much like a play and in three acts centered around the launch of the Apple Founder’s products. In 1984, it’s the Macintosh. In 1988, the failed NeXT computer after Steve had been dumped from his own company. In 1998, the iMac which helped lead to iEverything and market domination. Through this 14 year journey, we meet the people who populate this temperamental genius’s life. There’s his marketing exec Joanna (Kate Winslet), constantly by Steve’s side and witness to historical triumphs and her boss’s failures. Steve Wozniak (Seth Rogen) is the jilted company cofounder who kept Apple afloat for many years while Jobs got all the credit. John Sculley (a typically rock solid Jeff Daniels) is the CEO who is both an enemy and father figure. And the biggest through line comes from Lisa, the daughter that Steve can’t bring himself to properly father.

Steve Jobs eschews the conventional cliches of a biopic, just as the man who hated conventional may have preferred. While Fassbender doesn’t exactly resemble Steve, his performance is quite an accomplishment and succeeds in nailing down his complexities. The loyal yet often flustered Joanna is brought to life wonderfully by Winslet. Sorkin’s well known snappy dialogue should please his many admirers and the story structure is creative enough that you probably won’t quibble with reported historical inaccuracies. Truth be told, no two hour tale could properly nail presenting the enigmatic title subject, but Steve Jobs the film has a talented team doing their level best.

Love or hate him or (like most) appreciative and confounded by him, this picture fascinatingly is another puzzle piece of the man whose existence constantly is at our fingertips.

***1/2 (out of four)

How to Be Single Box Office Prediction

One year ago, Dakota Johnson became a huge star over President’s Day Weekend when Fifty Shades of Grey made an astounding $85 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of that frame. Now she’s back on screen on the same weekend with raunchy rom com How to Be Single alongside costars Rebel Wilson, Alison Brie, and Leslie Mann.

The film hopes to capitalize on Johnson and Wilson’s drawing power and ushering in a sizable female audience (while their male counterparts could be distracted with Deadpool or Zoolander No. 2). It also doesn’t hurt that Valentine’s Day falls on Sunday and it could perform well that day.

Single will still be lucky to gross a fourth of the business that Grey did when it spanked all competition last year. That said, I believe it could actually challenge the Zoolander follow-up for #2 (while Deadpool rules the charts). I’m putting it just slightly below what I believe that comedy sequel will do.

How to Be Single opening weekend prediction: $18.7 million

***Please note this prediction is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and not the full Friday to Monday President’s Day Weekend

For my Deadpool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

Zoolander No. 2 Box Office Prediction

Coming to screens nearly 15 years after the cult favorite original, Zoolander No. 2 debuts next weekend with Ben Stiller in front and behind the camera. Stars of the original Owen Wilson, Will Ferrell, and Christine Taylor are back as well as newbies Penelope Cruz, Kristin Wiig, Benedict Cumberbatch, and a whole bunch of cameos including Kim/Kanye and Justin Bieber.

2001’s Zoolander opened to $15.5 million and provided some comic relief to audiences when it premiered just two and a half weeks after 9/11. Its total domestic haul was a fair $45 million. However, the film has undoubtedly taken on considerable cult status over the last decade and a half and expectations are understandably higher for the long gestating sequel.

Having said that, one wonders if younger audience members will turn out in force as this faces serious competition from superhero flick Deadpool, which looks poised to easily rule the weekend. I would maintain that this is unlikely to reach the heights of Dumb and Dumber To, another long delayed sequel to a well regarded 90s comedy that managed $36 million out of the gate. As I see it, Zoolander No. 2 is more likely to score a decent debut in the low to possibly mid 20s and be in the runner-up position (as long as How to Be Single doesn’t overperform).

Zoolander No. 2 opening weekend prediction: $20.9 million

***Please note this prediction is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and not the full Friday to Monday President’s Day Weekend

For my Deadpool prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/deadpool-box-office-prediction/

For my How to Be Single prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

Deadpool Box Office Prediction

Ryan Reynolds has appeared in two superhero flicks before and neither (2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine and 2011’s Green Lantern) are exactly considered genre classics, to be kind. However, the times could be a-changin’ as Deadpool hits theaters next weekend amidst a wave of positive buzz.

Based on the Marvel Comics character, Reynolds plays the title role with Morena Baccarin, Ed Skrein, T.J. Miller, and Gina Carano in the supporting cast with first timer Tim Miller directing. Deadpool has been graced with some terrific trailers (especially the red band ones) that have assisted in generating big audience interest. In case you couldn’t tell from the red band mention, Deadpool is the rare hard R rated comic book pic. One could say that could limit its audience (and this certainly has no shot of achieving the kind of grosses that Avengers or Batman manage), but this should at least meet or very likely exceed expectations.

Somewhat ironically, this may open right in the $53 million range of Reynolds’ critically derided Green Lantern, which then sputtered to a $116M overall take. The difference? That gross for Lantern was disappointing, but it would be just fine for Deadpool. I’ll predict this manages to get a bit beyond that.

Deadpool opening weekend prediction: $58.2 million

**Please note this gross is for the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, not the full President’s Day Weekend.

For my Zoolander No. 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/03/zoolander-no-2-box-office-prediction/

For my How to Be Single prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/02/04/how-to-be-single-box-office-prediction/

Todd’s Top 25 David Bowie Songs: Nos. 5-1

After four days covering numbers 25-6 of my personal top 25 David Bowie songs, we’ve reached the top five! This could have easily been a top 50 list and it truly is remarkable to go back and listen to the many decades of greatness that this brilliant artist brought to us. What a talent. What a joy to listen to his artistry. Here’s my top five:

5. “Fame” from Young Americans (1975)

4. “Young Americans” from Young Americans (1975)

3. “Rebel Rebel” from Diamond Dogs (1974)

2. “Space Oddity” from David Bowie (1969)

  1. “Life on Mars” from Hunky Dory (1971)

And there you have it – happy listening! As an FYI – I’m going to make it a point to start doing these top 25 music lists more regularly with Elton John up next…

Spotlight Movie Review

“If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a village to abuse one.”

This line best encapsulates the theme of Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, which matter of factly tells the riveting true story of the Boston Globe’s slow uncovering of the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. It also tells a small town coverup tale and that “small town” is Boston, where some of the reporters run in the same circles of the church hierarchy and people who protect them.

Spotlight refers to a four person investigative reporting team at the Globe led by Robby (Michael Keaton). The rest of the gang is played by Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams, and Brian d’Arcy James. They are worried about their ability to take their time on stories and do things their way when new editor Marty (Liev Schrieber) is brought in from Miami. Their fear is confirmed not in the way they expect – Marty wants them to delve even deeper into their stories and he doesn’t fret about hometown repercussions. And the story he wants them to spotlight is allegations of priests molesting children over many decades and the victims who are living with their past experiences.

The reporters soon eventually uncover a plot with a scope previously unimaginable. Like that line of dialogue spoken by Stanley Tucci’s dedicated and overwhelmed attorney character, many in Boston’s village knew what was occurring. Yet few of them felt it was their responsibility to blow the whistle. Those who did often found it fell on deaf ears. This extends to the Globe as some of their personnel saw traces of the horror to be revealed later. McCarthy’s film admiringly recounts the process that journalists go through to uncover the story, but it doesn’t totally absolve some of them for their failure to act sooner. In fact, some of the principals on the other side involved wonder what took them so long.

Spotlight is filled with a sterling cast with superb performances down the line. It’s led by Keaton’s hometown boy who seems to know everyone and wants to do the right thing. Schrieber impresses in his role as the outsider who isn’t interested in a one day article. He and the team from Spotlight soon find their story is widespread and terrifying. It drives the point home that in these circumstances, often it’s assumed that someone else will say something and soon it’s a village of people not doing so or not listening. Spotlight expertly tells us how these reporters got to the point where silence was no longer acceptable and the noise you’ll hear at the end of this story will feel like powerful vindication.

***1/2 (out of four)