Month: November 2015

Oscar Watch: The Big Short

The last piece of the AFI Film Festival puzzle as it relates to Oscar potential was unveiled Thursday night as Adam McKay’s The Big Short screened. You don’t normally (as in ever before now) see director McKay’s name linked to Academy Awards buzz. We know him best for making Will Ferrell comedies like Anchorman, Talladega Nights, and The Other Guys. 

Yet this comedy with some drama mixed in focuses on the financial and housing crises of recent years and features a stellar cast that includes Steve Carell, Christian Bale, Ryan Gosling, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo, and Marisa Tomei. And when Paramount pushed it up from a release date in 2016 to Christmas time this year, it was seen by some as a move to put it in the Oscar race.

The verdict? Pretty strong, but reviews haven’t been met with universal acclaim. Some critics have been quite positive though and when it comes to the performances, attention has turned to Carell for Actor and Bale in Supporting Actor (a category he won in 2010 for The Fighter). Even though the Best Actor race is less competitive in 2015 than it’s been in recent year, I still feel Carell is a bit of a long shot for consideration unless the movie really takes off. Same goes for Bale. I would also say its inclusion in Best Picture seems iffy, at best.

As you know, however, these things can change over the next couple of months and The Big Short at least established itself as a potential player in the weeks ahead.

The Night Before Box Office Prediction

The second Christmas comedy in as many weeks hits screens next Friday as The Night Before opens. Unlike Love the Coopers, which looks like a safe and tame entry in the genre, this is one is a hard R rated experience which stars Seth Rogen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Anthony Mackie, Lizzy Caplan, Mindy Kaling, and even Miley Cyrus. Jonathan Levine is behind the camera and he’s directed Rogen and Gordon-Levitt before in 50/50. It’s co-written by Evan Goldberg, who’s collaborated with Rogen on Superbad, Pineapple Express, This is the End, and The Interview.

The trailers and TV spots for The Night Before are pretty successful at making this seem like good and raunchy holiday fun. How well that translates into immediate box office dollars is a valid question. It does have serious competition in the form of the final Hunger Games pic and that could eat into its opening weekend gross. Anything above $20 million out of the gate would be a little surprising to me. I’ll predict this manages somewhere in the mid teens as it hopes to play well over the next few weekends leading to Christmas.

The Night Before opening weekend prediction: $16.6 million

For my The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/12/the-hunger-games-mockingjay-part-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Secret in Their Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 10-6

This evening we arrive at part four of my personal top 25 best movie trailers of the last 25 years and that means we’ve reached the top ten! We’ve got numbers 10-6 tonight with the top five coming tomorrow. Here we go:

10. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)

This simple yet very effective teaser for Jim Cameron’s follow-up to his 1984 sci-fi hit shows Arnold’s famous Terminator being assembled with the money line at the end, “I’ll be back.” As good as teasers get.

9. Watchmen (2009)

With its Smashing Pumpkins track being used to great effect, Zack Snyder’s adaptation of the famed graphic novel is an expertly edited and visually beautiful trailer that rightly got fan boys into a tizzy a few years back.

8. Independence Day (1996)

So Roland Emmerich’s smash hit was a bit underwhelming and too silly in my view, but this teaser showing the impending alien invasion was all kinds of awesome with its White House money shot to top it off.

7. The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

Expectations were sky high for the sequel to 1999’s watershed science fiction pic and the trailer for Reloaded delivered on every front with its eye popping visuals, even if the film itself was seen as a letdown by many.

6. Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menance (1999)

Yes, I could have listed the trailer for the upcoming Force Awakens here. Yet for those old enough to remember, whether the picture itself turned out well (and it really didn’t), this teaser for Episode 1 was and is probably the most breathlessly awaited teaser ever. It succeeded at stoking the anticipation for the world’s most famous franchise to return.

Tune in tomorrow to check out my top 5, ladies and gents!

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 Box Office Prediction

The final installment of the wildly popular franchise based on Suzane Collins’s novels hits screens next Friday as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opens. Francis Lawrence returns to direct and Jennifer Lawrence is back leading her impressive cast that includes Josh Hutcherson, Liam Hemsworth, Woody Harrelson, Elizabeth Banks, Julianne Moore, Donald Sutherland, Sam Chaflin, Jena Malone, Stanley Tucci, Jeffrey Wright, and Philip Seymour Hoffman (in his final film role). So far, this is getting better reviews than Part 1‘s 65% Rotten Tomatoes score as this stands at 88% currently.

While all entries in this series have made major bucks, it is worth noting that predecessor Mockingjay – Part 1 came in below the first two flicks. Let’s take a trip down box office history lane with this franchise that began in spring 2012:

The Hunger Games

Opening: $152 million with $408 million overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Opening: $158 million with $424 overall domestic gross

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Opening: $121 million with $337 million overall domestic gross

I find it unlikely that the final tale will outdo the first two, but it could edge out Part 1 simply due to the fact that it’s the last one. It has become commonplace for studios to divide a franchise’s finale installment into two parts. We’ve seen it with Harry Potter and Twilight and Lionsgate did just that here (we’ll see this tactic employed again in the future with the Divergent and Avengers series).

My gut tells me this performs similar to what Part 2 of the last Twilight picture accomplished by making about $3-6 million more that what its predecessor debuted to.

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $124.2 million

For my The Night Before prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/the-night-before-box-office-prediction/

For my Secret in Their Eyes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/11/14/secret-in-their-eyes-box-office-prediction/

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 15-11

We have moved to day 3 of my personal top 25 best movie trailers of the last 25 years and that means numbers 15-11 before we get to the Top Ten tomorrow!

And here they are:

15. There Will Be Blood (2007)

Director Paul Thomas Anderson has made some of the finest pictures of the last couple of decades and that greatness extends to his trailers. His last two efforts, The Master and Inherent Vice, were both considered for this list but I went with the trailer for There Will Be Blood with its first menacing glimpse of Daniel Day-Lewis’s amazing Oscar winning performance.

14. Cloverfield (2008)

While the movie itself was a bit of a letdown, this spot for this sci-fi pic rightly generated considerable buzz for the mysterious project and is a major example of a trailer contributing to considerable box office success. And it has the coolest Statue of Liberty shot since the original Planet of the Apes.

13. The Blair Witch Project (1999)

Once again, I was disappointed in the eventual final product but the trailer for 1999’s out of nowhere financial smash Blair Witch had audiences wondering whether what they were going to see was real or not.

12. Eyes Wide Shut (1999)

Stanley Kubrick’s final motion picture with at the time real life husband and wife Tom Cruise and Nicole Kidman had a dandy of a sensuous and effective trailer set to Chris Isaak’s “Baby Did A Bad Bad Thing’.

11. Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)

Truth be told, I could have listed any of the trailers for Peter Jackson’s massive trilogy, but I went with the original which gave audiences their first stunning glimpse of the director’s Tolkien created universe.

Top Ten tomorrow, folks!

Oscar Watch: Concussion

Last night at the AFI Film Festival, critics got their first look at Concussion – the eagerly awaited pic centering on the NFL’s policies regarding brain injuries. The film wasn’t ever really looked at as a major threat in Best Picture or Director (Peter Landesman) and that hasn’t changed. It’s so far received mixed notices and sits at 57% on Rotten Tomatoes. Supporting players like Alec Baldwin, Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Albert Brooks are also unlikely to be factors.

Where Concussion does stand a very real shot at a nod is for its lead actor, Will Smith. Critics have specifically singled him out and it could well mean a third nomination for Big Willie after 2001’s Ali and 2007’s The Pursuit of Happyness. It also helps that this year’s Actor race doesn’t seem quite as competitive compared to the last couple of years. Others in the mix include last year’s winner Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, Michael Fassbender for box office flop Steve Jobs, Matt Damon in box office bonanza The Martian, Michael Caine for Youth, Johnny Depp in Black Mass, and Leonardo DiCaprio in the as yet unseen The Revenant.

Considering that crowd, it’s pretty easy to see Smith finding himself in the fold, especially if Concussion does well at the box office. He may find himself among my predicted nominees for the first time when my third round of predictions hits next week. Concussion arrives in theaters on Christmas.

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 20-16

We continue to day 2 of my personal favorite movie trailers of the last 25 years and this brings us to numbers 20-16.

Let’s go:

20. Mission: Impossible (1996)

For a budding film franchise starring the biggest movie star in the world at the time, the trailer for Mission: Impossible sets expectations very high with this electric spot and it’s delivered in the form of five pictures and counting.

19. Godzilla (1998)

I actually considered the very effective trailer for the superior 2014 version, but this true teaser doesn’t use a minute of footage from the eventual (highly disappointing) 1998 flick and it manages to be an example of expert marketing for getting an audience’s anticipation sky high.

18. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011)

Using Trent Reznor’s killer version of Led Zeppelin’s “Immigrant Song”, the teaser for David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo promises the “feel bad” movie of Christmas in a glorious and fast paced ad that serves as one example of many wonderful Fincher trailers.

17. Jurassic Park (1993)

We may forget now after four entries in the franchises, but the trailer here gave us our first glimpse of Spielberg’s dinos in all their glory and that alone merits inclusion.

16. Superman Returns (2006)

I struggled with whether to include the fine trailer for the 2013 Man of Steel reboot instead, but this one hearkens brilliantly back to the 1978 Superman with its Marlon Brando voice-over and rich visuals.

And tomorrow – we’ll get to numbers 15-11!

Top 25 Best Movie Trailers (1990-2015): Nos. 25-21

This evening brings us to a new best of list covering the last 25 years of motion pictures. And this time, instead of the best movies, we’re covering my personal list of greatest movie trailers of the last generation.

Let’s be clear: making this particular list was quite difficult. There are lots of criteria for what makes a brilliant trailer. Frankly, it frequently has little to do nothing with whether or not the finished product is any good. There are movies contained in this list that I was no fan of, but that doesn’t mean its teaser or trailer wasn’t pretty sweet. And the teaser and trailer designation is key. I’m including both on this list. There are some teasers that actually had little to do with the eventual picture. And there are some full trailers that effectively captured how terrific the eventual picture turned out to be.

Obviously this list is all in the eye of the beholder (meaning me) and there are several spectacular ones left off. Here’s just a dozen of them: Spider-Man, Zero Dark Thirty, Man of Steel, The Dark Knight, The Day After Tomorrow, Star Trek, Heat, Guardians of the Galaxy, Pearl Harbor, Fight Club, Kill Bill – Vol. 1, and Suicide Squad. I’m also glad I limited myself to the past 25 years because there’s some of the best ever prior to that period – namely Psycho, Alien, and The Shining.

As is typical with these lists, I’ll count down from 25 to 1 in five part installments every day. Here we go:

25. Taken (2008)

It’s not often you can say that one trailer spawned a film franchise, but Taken did just that with its trailer focusing on that famous Liam Neeson speech to his daughter’s captors.

24. Black Mass (2015)

Johnny Depp had starred in a string of commercial and critical disappointments, but one look at this chilling dinner table trailer and you knew he was back in his element. A likely Oscar nomination may well follow early next year.

23. Unbreakable (2000)

It may be hard to recall now, but Unbreakable was M. Night Shyamalan’s supremely eagerly awaited follow-up to his phenomenon The Sixth Sense. This mysterious trailer raised the bar of expectations and though some would disagree with me, I believe the actual film delivered.

22. Red Eye (2005)

The late Wes Craven’s pic has one of the cleverest trailers on the list. The first portion of it makes it seems like a lame romantic comedy (with Rachel McAdams no less, making that prospect more believable). The sudden tone shift makes you realize what you’re really in for…

21. Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)

It had been 30 years since director George Miller was behind the camera for this franchise and legitimate doubts persisted whether his reboot that replaced Mel Gibson with Tom Hardy would work. Once the first trailer hit, there was little doubt at all in this visually breathtaking work.

We will get to numbers 20-16 tomorrow, folks!

Box Office Predictions: November 13-15

Three new movies populate the marketplace this weekend: Christmas comedy Love the Coopers, true life Chilean mining disaster pic The 33, and football drama My All-American. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Love the Coopers Box Office Prediction

The 33 Box Office Prediction

My All-American Box Office Prediction

I find it highly unlikely that any of them will challenge the box office domination of Spectre or The Peanuts Movie, which will both be entering their sophomore frames. In fact, while I see Coopers and The 33 battling for the third spot and My All-American opening outside the top five, the real drama could be between Bond vs. Snoopy for the #1 position.

That’s because Spectre opened below most expectations, including my own. The last two Bond flicks (Quantum of Solace and Skyfall) experienced 60 and 53 percent second week drops, respectively, and I anticipate this one sliding somewhere in between those two figures.

The Peanuts Movie should not dip near as precipitously in its follow-up frame. I believe it will lose around a third of its audience and my prediction has it within very close striking distance to 007.

Ridley Scott’s The Martian should round out the top five. My $3.8 million estimate for My All-American will likely put it at the #8 spot behind Goosebumps and Bridge of Spies.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $30.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $28.9 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. Love the Coopers

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million

4. The 33

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)

Box Office Results (November 6-8)

While it’s been setting records overseas, Daniel Craig’s fourth Bond pic Spectre didn’t quite match expectations while still giving the franchise its second best start in history. With its mixed reviews, the film took in $70.4 million, well below my $91.3M forecast. The previous entry, the acclaimed Skyfall, still easily maintains its status as largest opener domestically with its $88M from three years. Spectre opened closer to 2008’s Quantum of Solace, which earned $67M.

The Peanuts Movie opened right in line with expectations with an encouraging $44.2 million, on pace with my $43.4M forecast. With its solid A Cinemascore grade, look for this to start a new family franchise and perform well in the coming weeks.

The rest of the top five was filled with holdovers as The Martian was third with $9 million (ahead of my $7.7M prediction) for a total of $196M. Goosebumps took fourth with $6.8 million (in line with my $6M projection) for an overall $66M gross. Bridge of Spies was fifth with $5.8 million (which is exactly what I predicted… pat on back). It’s made $54M so far.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Guilty Pleasures: The Running Man

The former Governors of California and Minnesota, the original host of “Family Feud”, a Hall of Fame Cleveland Browns running back, the drummer of Fleetwood Mac, and the son of Frank Zappa in a movie based on a work of Stephen King? Yes, it exists and it’s the fun guilty pleasure that it sounds like. We’re talking about The Running Man from 1987 and it’s kind of the original down and dirty Hunger Games 25 years before Katniss and company graced the silver screen.

Released in the same year as his genuine classic Predator, Arnold Schwarzenegger stars in this science fiction entry set in the far off future year of 2017. The pic imagines that time as a police state where accused criminals are chased down for sport before a live TV audience on a show hosted by a nefarious character played by real life Feud host Richard Dawson. The supporting cast includes aforementioned folks like Jesse Ventura, Jim Brown, Mick Fleetwood, and Dweezil Zappa.

Let there be no mistake – this is strictly B movie stuff and it doesn’t deserve to mentioned in the same breath as true Arnold classics like The Terminator, Predator and Total Recall. Yet this cinematic junk food is a lot more of a good time than it ought to be and that’s why it easily qualifies as a true guilty pleasure.