Month: May 2015

Box Office Predictions: May 8-10

Only one new film is daring to even challenge the second weekend of the Avengers squad and that would be Hot Pursuit, the cop comedy starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara. It will attempt to bring in the female crowd and you can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/02/hot-pursuit-box-office-prediction/

While I have Pursuit getting off to a pretty decent start, nothing will stand in the way of Iron Man and company reigning supreme for two weeks in a row. The big question is how far Ultron falls in its second frame. Will it drop the 50% that its 2012 predecessor did or in the 58% range of Iron Man 3 in 2013? I’ve got it dropping somewhere in between, though closer to the former (more on Avengers opening weekend further down).

The rest of the top five should be littered with leftovers all making under $4 million. The Jack Black/James Marsden comedy The D Train is only opening on around 700 screens and I’ll predict $1.7 million for it, which would leave it outside the top five.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $90.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $21.3 million

3. Furious 7

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 45%)

5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (May 1-3)

All prognosticators had one question when it came to Avengers: Age of Ultron: would it manage to have the largest domestic opening of all time and beat out the $207.4 million record of The Avengers? I predicted it would with an estimate of $212.7 million.

And I and many others were wrong and you probably have American Pharoah, Blake Griffin, Tim Duncan, Floyd Mayweather, and Manny Pacquiao to thank. Ultron still performed gangbusters with $191.2 million, posting the second all-time domestic debut. Yet the sports bonanza that took place all day and night Saturday likely kept it from setting the record. Still – don’t expect to hear much complaining from Disney or Marvel.

Holdovers populated the rest of the top five with all pictures dropping further than I thought they would, due to Avengers and all the weekend activity. Furious 7 was second with $6.6 million (I said $9.6M) and it lifted its cume to $331M. The Age of Adaline took third in its second weekend with $6.2 million ($8M predicted here) and its ten day total is $23M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 was fourth with $5.8 million (I said $8.7M) and it’s made $51M at press time. Finally, Home was fifth with $3.4 million (my projection: $5.8M) and its total is $158M.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Fifty Shades of Grey Movie Review

I went into Fifty Shades of Grey with the same open minded attitude that its central character Anastasia Steele (Dakota Johnson) goes into with her unconventional relationship with Christian Grey (Jamie Dornan). I was completely unfamiliar with the source material, though certainly aware of the wild popularity of the E.L. James novel it’s based upon. And I knew the breathless anticipation of its fans due to their love of the book. I’ve heard some writers claim that this film adaptation improves on the novel and I’m skeptical. 1) That’s normally not the case and 2) It must be a really bad book.

Fifty Shades is essentially a soft core porn with higher production values and admittedly lovely cinematography. The soundtrack is decent too. This is where my praise ends. The picture is also a boring and overlong melodrama with subpar acting and a one note screenplay that utterly fails to generate any genuine interest in the leads.

Anastasia is an about to be college grad majoring in English literature who meets Christian, a wealthy business magnate. Sparks fly in short order and she soon learns that his sexual tastes lie in the world of sadomasochism and bondage. Not only is Anastastia not accustomed to that world, she’s still a virgin. This sets off a crisis of conscience for Ms. Steele that goes on and on and interminably on. One minute she’s into it. The next she isn’t. Christian does what he can to get her into it while yawningly explaining his troubled backstory. We meet both of their families who add nothing. The next crisis of conscience arrives. Tears flow. Beyoncé song. Sex scene. Repeat.

Even when certain films or novels become cultural phenomenons, which this is, and I don’t enjoy them – I can usually understand why they became so popular. I’m stumped with Fifty Shades of Grey. As mentioned, there’s little that separates it from a Cinemax flick that airs at two in the morning. At least those pics know they’re trash. Perhaps some roles will come Johnson and Dornan’s way to show their capabilities but we don’t see it here. For all the talk about punishment in the two hours of this movie, we the audience receive the lion’s share of it. Not in a good way either.

* (out of four)

Hot Pursuit Box Office Prediction

Looking to make the kind of loot that the Sandra Bullock/Melissa McCarthy entry made two summers ago, Hot Pursuit opens this Friday. The comedy stars Reese Witherspoon and Modern Family’s Sofia Vergara. Oscar winner Witherspoon is the bumbling cop protecting Vergara’s witness character.

Reviews have yet to surface and the trailers don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence. There’s also the matter of Avengers: Age of Ultron’s sophomore weekend, in which it should continue to easily dominate. Still, Reese has had a pretty solid track record in this genre, with hits like Legally Blonde, Sweet Home Alabama and Four Christmases. Yet that luck didn’t extend to her last comedy, 2012’s This Means War, which opened to just $17 million and petered out at $54 million domestic.

Pursuit should manage to make more than that and I’ll estimate a fairly decent low 20s premiere.

Hot Pursuit opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million