Oscar Watch: Inside Out

The Cannes Film Festival has given us yet another Oscar contender in its screening process today and it’s a relatively unexpected one: Disney/Pixar’s latest certain summer blockbuster Inside Out. The computer animated feature premieres statewide June 19.

There’s never much doubt that Pixar flicks are going to make a boatload of cash. And it is also a virtual certainty that their products become automatic contenders, if not outright front runners, for the Academy’s Animated Feature race. Based on reviews streaming from the south of France, Inside Out is undoubtedly going to be nominated in that category. Yet a nomination in Best Picture seems much more possible today than it did yesterday.

Inside Out features the voices of Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling, and Lewis Black, among others. The story is told inside the mind of an 11 year old girl and explores the joys and challenges of her young life. Critics so far have been over the moon with one prominent writer proclaiming it’s the studio’s finest effort since 2009’s Up. Variety went as far to proclaim it as “the greatest idea” that Pixar has ever hatched. Strong words indeed.

The Up comparison is likely no accident as it shares the same director, Pete Docter. Up was the last Pixar product he directed and it is the only one of the bunch that received a Picture nomination. That bodes well for Inside Out if the fawning praise continues, which is probable.

Usually it is dramatic material and independent pictures that gather steam at Cannes. Today it was the studio that Mickey built gaining momentum.

Box Office Predictions: May 22-25

The four day Memorial Day weekend at the box office promises to be a fascinating one as Disney’s Tomorrowland and horror reboot Poltergeist enter the marketplace in competition with holdover hits Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Avengers: Age of Ultron. It could easily create a situation where all top five films over the holiday frame post numbers north of $25 million. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Tomorrowland and Poltergeist here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

My predictions reflect a belief that Tomorrowland will manage to top the charts, though it could face competition from Pitch Perfect 2. That musical comedy sequel performed way above expectations this weekend (more on that below) and depending on its drop, could contend for the #1 position, especially if Tomorrowland doesn’t meet projections. That said, I do have Pitch losing over half its audience due to its front loaded amazing start.

My estimate for Poltergeist is a bit on the low end compared to others and I have it debuting third. As for other holdovers, Avengers: Age of Ultron and Mad Max: Fury Road could find themselves in a close race for the four spot, but I’ll give the slight edge to Marvel’s heroes.

And with that, my top five predictions for the four day, Friday to Monday holiday weekend:

1. Tomorrowland

Predicted Gross: $44.6 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $32.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

3. Poltergeist

Predicted Gross: $29.3 million

4. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $26.6 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $25.5 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (May 15-17)

As mentioned above, Pitch Perfect 2 had a shockingly great opening with $69.2 million. This marks the largest opening ever for a musical and third biggest comedic debut in history. Even more impressively, it made more in its first three days than its 2012 predecessor made in its entire domestic run ($65M). Perfect soared above my $42M projection and you can rest assure a third edition will be forthcoming.

Mad Max: Fury Road had to settle for a second place start far behind Pitch, but its $45.4 million haul is nothing to be ashamed of. And neither, ladies and gentleman, was my prediction… $45.4M million! Gold star! This is a solid debut for a reboot of a franchise that had been dormant for thirty years and its international grosses have impressed as well.

Avengers: Age of Ultron dropped to third after two weeks on top with $38.8 million, just above my $36.8M prediction. The Marvel tale has amassed $372M so far. The Reese Witherspoon comedy flop Hot Pursuit was fourth with $5.7 million in its sophomore frame, below my $7.2M estimate. The critically drubbed flick’s gross is at just $23M. Furious 7 was fifth with $3.6 million and I incorrectly had it outside the top five (its overall is at $343M). I had holdover The Age of Adaline at fifth with $4.1 million, but it was seventh with $3.1M (current earnings: $37M).

And that’s all for now, folks! Enjoy your holiday weekend!

Focus Movie Review

Like the many con artist tales before it, Focus is filled to the brim with twists and turns and diversions that constantly keep you guessing. In the best of these genre tales, you leave marveling at how the con was pulled and it manages to hold up under close inspection. That’s not really the case in this movie. There are surprises to be had for sure and some don’t really make a lick of sense.

Therefore it’s a bonus to have beautiful and talented stars like Will Smith and Margot Robbie starring and lovely scenery in Buenos Aires to entertain our eyes. They play a pair of con artists whose resumes differ tremendously. Nicky (Smith) is a pro with a team of people under him whose family lineage consists of those who share the profession. Jess (Robbie) is just getting started in the business and her experience as we open consists mostly of picking pockets. The two form an alliance in every sense imaginable and he takes her under his wing. Yet his sense of not getting too close to anyone puts a sudden stop to their romantic and professional partnership.

Flash forward to three years later where our leads finally see each other again in Buenos Aires. Nicky is working for a billionaire race car owner (Rodrigo Santoro) whose enlisted his help to fix a competition. Jess is dating him. Of course, as is tradition in these pictures, nothing is really as it seems and there are twists aplenty.

Focus doesn’t add anything new to this well worn genre. It manages to coast amiably on the charms of Smith and Robbie. It’s worth noting that our Fresh Prince is quite a bit more subdued than normal. he acquits himself just fine and has solid chemistry with the game Robbie, who we first noticed in her terrific performance in Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street.

Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) is the bad guy’s head of security whose character provides one of the more head scratching surprises, but the performance itself is solid. Adrian Martinez provides some entertaining comic relief as one of Nicky’s employees and B.D. Wong is fun in a cleverly constructed con scheme sequence set at the Super Bowl.

Simply put, there’s nothing very special or unique to see here in Focus and the more serious tone shift in the third act is jarring. Luckily the actors do enough here to keep your attention in… well, you know the rest.

*** (out of four)

The Ethan Hunt Files – Mission: Impossible II

Over two years ago on this here blog, when it was in its infancy, I did the 007 Files where I wrote individualized blog posts on all 23 Bond flicks. That got me thinking about other series I could do the same with and in January 2013, I started The Ethan Hunt Files and wrote about the first Mission: Impossible pic from 1996.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/01/31/the-ethan-hunt-files-mission-impossible/

I had every intention of writing about the other three in short order. For whatever reason I did not follow up. With the fifth M:I picture Rogue Nation debuting in July, I decided it was time to resume this series of posts and we continue with Mission: Impossible II from the summer of 2000…

And what an interesting film it is, especially considering the franchise entries that preceded it and followed it. M:I II stands out as the strangest pic in the series and the one that fits in least with the rest. Two words explain the main reason for this: John Woo. The acclaimed action director took over directing duties from Brian De Palma for the second picture and didn’t have an ounce of hesitation about turning it into a bonafide Woo affair with all the slow motion shots, quick cuts, and (yes) doves that come along with it. There are certainly some similarities to the original – foremost of which is the continuation and multiplication of those fancy face masks.

Unlike Mission 1, here we have Tom Cruise’s Ethan in a romantic relationship with the gorgeous Nyah (Thandie Newton), a jewel thief who is the ex of Sean Ambrose (Dougray Scott), an IMF agent gone bad who Ethan is after. Ambrose has stolen a nasty virus called Chimera, as well as its antidote, in an effort to make billions on the pharmaceutical market. Nyah is enlisted to get back in the good graces of her evil ex to get information, but not before she falls in love with Ethan first. They do so during a car chase in which Ethan nearly kills her, then kisses her. It happens.

Ethan is given his mission by the new head of IMF, played by Anthony Hopkins in what is essentially a glorified cameo. Our hero is conflicted by sending Nyah into such a dangerous mission. This all might’ve worked a bit better if the chemistry between Cruise and Newton felt authentic. We simply have zero investment in their romance and by the time Nyah bravely infects herself with the virus, you don’t really mind if Chimera wins. And a lot of the film could have been improved if Scott’s performance as our head villain wasn’t so utterly unremarkable. Some may know that M:I II’s production went into overtime and it forced Dougray Scott to be dropped from playing Wolverine in that same summer’s X-Men. An unknown actor named Hugh Jackman stepped in at the last minute. This is a good thing and Scott went from the next potential Wolverine to that dull M:I II villain that kinda looks like Ewan McGregor.

Ving Rhames returns as Luther, Ethan’s fellow agent who excels in counting down the clock as Hunt performs those impossible stunts. Rade Serbedvija gives a somewhat delightfully off kilter performance as the doctor who created Chimera and Brendan Gleeson is the nefarious owner of the corporation exploiting the virus for financial gain.

The De Palma Mission was a rock solid spy thriller anchored by three first rate action centerpieces: the aquarium sequence, the Langley infiltration and the train finale. In part two, there’s the bio chem lab sequence and the motorcycle chase finale that are front and center.

Neither are as memorable as anything from the previous effort. There’s also the Cruise rock climbing business in the beginning which basically exists so its stunt loving star can look cool rock climbing.

In hindsight, M:I II is easily the weakest link of this franchise. It doesn’t much feel like a Mission feature anymore as much as a John Woo movie with Ethan Hunt in it. Acclaimed screenwriter Robert Towne (who cowrote the first) has sole credit here and a hefty portion of the dialogue, particularly Newton’s, is a bit cringe worthy. Mission: Impossible II has enough fairly cool action to satisfy your average teenage boy, but it pales next to the rest of the Missions. And there’s no excuse for Limp Bizkit reworking that classic TV series theme either.

So while its reputation has deservedly soured in recent times, that didn’t stop part two from becoming a huge global success and earning over half a billion worldwide. It also was the highest domestic grosser of summer 2000 and virtually guaranteed a third go round for Hunt and his IMF team.

Here are the facts:

Film: Mission: Impossible II

U.S. Release Date: May 24, 2000

Director: John Woo

Screenplay: Robert Towne

Budget: $125 million

Worldwide Box Office: $546.3 million

The Ethan Hunt files will return with Mission: Impossible III

Oscar Watch: Carol

The Cannes Film Festival is happening right now across the pond and this weekend a sure fire Oscar contender was born. The Todd Haynes directed romantic drama Carol has debuted to rapturous reviews and garnered attention especially for its two lead actresses.

Set in the 1950s, Carol stars Cate Blanchett as a married woman in a lesbian relationship with a younger twenty something played by The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’s Rooney Mara. Just two years after she won Best Actress for Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Blanchett seems very probable to find her name in the mix again with Mara a good possibility for Supporting Actress attention. Director Haynes could find himself the center of attention for his first Director nomination after giving us critical darlings like Far From Heaven and I’m Not There. Based on the festival buzz, Carol has also vaulted itself into the conversation for a Best Picture nod. Reviews have also noted the screenplay (which would be in the Adapted category due to the film being based upon Patricia Highsmith’s novel The Price of Salt), as well as the cinematography and costume design.

It has become common for Cannes to give us at least a couple contenders for Academy attention and Carol certainly fits the bill. The picture opens stateside on December 18, right in the midst of when serious qualifiers come out.

Poltergeist Box Office Prediction

This Friday, yet another remake/reboot of a classic horror entry comes to us as Poltergeist is released. 20th Century Fox is hopeful that the brand name will bring moviegoers in over the long Memorial Day weekend. It’s been 33 years since the Tobe Hooper directed and Steven Spielberg produced original and this reboot stars Sam Rockwell, Rosemarie Dewitt, and Jared Harris.

The high profile May release is a bit surprising and one wonders if this might have been better geared toward an October rollout. Truthfully, this seems to be flying a bit under the radar and is likely to settle for a second place debut at best behind Tomorrowland and maybe behind holdovers Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Certainly this could over perform, but that possibility is not reflected in my estimate.

Poltergeist opening weekend prediction: $22.5 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $29.3 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my Tomorrowland prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/15/tomorrowland-box-office-prediction/

Tomorrowland Box Office Prediction

Disney is hoping that over the Memorial Day weekend, a wide swath of moviegoers will choose to make the trip to Tomorrowland. The sci fi adventure opens Friday with a reported $190 million budget and is directed by Brad Bird, who made Pixar classics The Incredibles and Ratatouille and had a successful debut in live action with 2011’s Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol. Bird shares screenplay credit with Damon Lindelof, co-creator of Lost. George Clooney headlines a cast that features Britt Robertson, Hugh Laurie, Kathryn Hahn, Tim McGraw and Judy Greer.

The studio has been successful in keeping the plot details of Tomorrowland closely under wraps and it could succeed in creating a curiosity factor among audiences. The pic looks to appeal to family audiences and sci fi lovers. The Memorial Day release indicates confidence from Disney. One must wonder, however, if all the secrecy could keep some away since most summer releases are sequels and reboots based on known properties.

I could envision Tomorrowland opening in a similar fashion to Super 8, which premiered four summers ago to $35 million. Due to its four day holiday rollout, I’ll say it manages to climb a bit higher than that, albeit with one more day included in the grosses.

Tomorrowland opening weekend prediction: $33.4 million (Friday to Sunday prediction), $44.6 million (Friday to Monday prediction)

For my Poltergeist prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/16/poltergeist-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 15-17

Summer 2015’s sequel and reboot mania kicks into high gear this weekend as the critically acclaimed Mad Max: Fury Road (arriving thirty years after the last Max feature) and musical comedy Pitch Perfect 2 hit theaters. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/08/mad-max-fury-road-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/05/09/pitch-perfect-2-box-office-prediction/

Both should make quite an impact. Fury Road has been blessed with truly awesome trailers and TV spots and its current 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes inspires supreme confidence. Pitch Perfect 2 is the follow-up to a cult hit three years ago and it is also receiving favorable reviews and should capture a hefty young adult/female audience. I look for both to achieve openings north of $40 million.

That likely means Avengers: Age of Ultron will fall to third in its third weekend after two weeks on top, barring the unlikely scenario of the two newbies not meeting expectations. The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara flop Hot Pursuit should dip to fourth with The Age of Adaline rounding out the top five.

And with that, my predictions the weekend:

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

Predicted Gross: $45.4 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2

Predicted Gross: $42 million

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Hot Pursuit

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Age of Adaline

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (May 8-10)

Avengers: Age of Ultron easily maintained its box office dominance, but its 59% drop-off in weekend #2 was a bit steeper than estimated. The Marvel sequel took in $77.7 million, below my $90.6M prediction. The ten day total stands at $313 million. While the numbers it’s accomplishing are gargantuan, this follow-up has no realistic shot of reaching the $623M achieved by the 2012 predecessor.

The Reese Witherspoon/Sofia Vergara comedy Hot Pursuit was savaged by critics and audiences responded in kind with a weak $13.9 million debut, far below my $21.3M projection. Look for this dud to fade fast.

Leftovers populated the rest of the top five and they all experienced smaller dips that I estimated. The Age of Adaline was third with $5.8 million (I predicted $3.5M) and its total is at $31 million. Furious 7 took fourth with $5.4 million (I said $3.5M) for an overall haul of $338M. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 rounded out the top five with $5.3 million (I predicted $3.2M) and its cume sits at $58M. Last and least… the Jack Black comedy rolled out on approximately 1000 screens and sputtered with a putrid $469,000 – not coming close to even my meager $1.7M projection.

That’ll do it for now, folks! Be sure to check this coming weekend for my Tomorrowland and Poltergeist predictions. As always, next Monday I’ll bring you full predictions and results from the coming weekend. Until then…

Pitch Perfect 2 Box Office Prediction

In 2012, the musical comedy Pitch Perfect became a sleeper hit at the box office grossing $65 million and becoming an even larger success when it reached the home video market. Three years later its sequel has earned a plum summer release and considerably higher expectations.

Returning cast members Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, and Brittany Snow are in the mix along with Hailee Steinfeld and a new director, Hunger Games actress Elizabeth Banks. While Mad Max and The Avengers will duke it out for the male audience, Pitch Perfect 2 should score with females and teens.

There is little question that this sequel should easily eclipse the domestic gross of its predecessor. It could find itself in a close race with the aforementioned Max. I think it’ll earn a bit less but Universal Pictures should be quite pleased with the results.

Pitch Perfect 2 opening weekend prediction: $42 million

http://youtu.be/oqCYlxcq84c

Mad Max: Fury Road Box Office Prediction

A franchise will be reborn next Friday when Mad Max: Fury Road is unveiled in theaters. It’s been an entire 30 years since the title character has appeared on the silver screen. The original trilogy of dystopian future action flicks made a little known Aussie actor named Mel Gibson a star.

This time around Tom Hardy (of Bane fame) is Max with Charlize Theron and Nicholas Hoult in the supporting cast. George Miller, director of the first trilogy which dates back to 1979 (like me), is behind the camera once again.

There is no doubt that a generation or more of younger moviegoers don’t have much of a connection to the Max character. Yet my suspicion is that Fury Road will open very solid and the absolutely terrific trailers only help. The return of Max could yield an opening gross in the mid 40s as I see it.

Mad Max: Fury Road opening weekend prediction: $45.4 million