With a meager $12 million budget, the Christian themed drama Heaven Is for Real looks to capitalize on its Easter weekend opening and continue the trend of Bible themed pictures doing well at the multiplex. Already this year, we’ve seen Son of God, Noah, and God’s Not Dead all post solid results.
Randall Wallace, screenwriter of Braveheart and director of We Were Soldiers, is behind the camera with a cast that includes Greg Kinnear, Kelly Reilly, and Thomas Haden Church. It’s based on a bestselling 2010 book. Heaven opens on Wednesday and I’ll be predicting both its five-day and traditional weekend gross.
As I see it, this could easily exceed expectations and a have a larger gross than my estimate will reflect. In February, Son of God took in $26.5 million in its three day weekend debut. I could see Heaven accomplishing close to that in its five-day haul which would be a robust start for Sony Pictures.
Heaven Is for Real opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million (Friday to Sunday), $24.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
For cinephiles, this Friday’s Transcendence has been eagerly anticipated not just for Johnny Depp starring in it – but also because it marks the directorial debut of Wally Pfister. He is best known as the cinematographer behind all of Chris Nolan’s pictures, including The Dark Knight trilogy and Inception. The sci-fi thriller is headlined by Depp with a supporting cast including Rebecca Hall, Kate Mara, and Nolan regulars Morgan Freeman and Cillian Murphy.
The participation of Depp makes this high-profile alone, but it’s worth noting he’s had a couple of flops in a row with Dark Shadows and The Lone Ranger. The trailers for Transcendence have surprisingly been rather middling in my view and they don’t really reflect what the film is about. This could hinder its potential with its opening. Warner Bros. is releasing Transcendence the same weekend as Tom Cruise’s Oblivion last year. That title earned $37 million in its premiere and I’m sure the studio would love to see that number here.
Transcendence should easily nab the #1 spot next weekend but I don’t believe it’ll get quite as high as Cruise’s sci-fi entry. Low 30s seems the safe bet.
Transcendence opening weekend prediction: $30.8 million
Currently at the multiplex, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is reigning supreme with its record-setting April debut of $95 million. This Marvel production is the just the latest example of an interesting and rare phenomenon – sequels that are considered superior to their predecessors.
However, if you take a close look at the superhero genre – it really isn’t a rare thing. In fact, one could argue it’s the only film genre in which sequels are very often considered improvements on the original. This doesn’t hold true for comedies or horror pics or action flicks. The explosion of comic book related titles (especially in the 21st century) has produced multiple examples of this.
Before we get there, let’s take a look back. In the late 70s, Superman was a massive hit and its 1980 sequel was generally considered a worthy follow-up that wasn’t quite its equal. The same holds true for the big comic book film character of the late 80s with Batman and its 1992 sequel Batman Returns. With both of those franchises – their third and fourth entries were considered highly disappointing.
This dynamic would shift in the 21st century. When X-Men jumpstarted the genre once again in 2000, it was well-received by critics and audiences and yet its follow-up X2: X-Men United earned even greater acclaim.
We would see this happen yet again when Spider-Man 2 improved upon Spider-Man.
And yet again when The Dark Knight became a beloved global hit with most believing it reached greater heights than Batman Begins.
Marvel Studios has seen this happen with both the current Captain America sequel and Thor: The Dark World from last year. And we’ll see if their trend continues with next year’s Avengers follow-up.
As you can see, it’s usually more the rule than exception that superhero sequels are thought of as bettering film #1. You could put Blade II and Hellboy: The Golden Army in there as well, according to many moviegoers.
Having said that, it doesn’t always hold true. You would be hard pressed to find many people who believe Iron Man 2 was a better experience than the 2008 original. And while second pictures have had lots of luck, third installments in the 21st century are a different story. Spider-Man 3, X-Men: The Last Stand, and (to a lesser degree) The Dark Knight Rises were all considered letdowns. The exception is Iron Man 3, considered an upgrade over #2.
Of course, there are sequels in film history outside of the superhero genre that this applies to with The Empire Strikes Back being an obvious example. Others that come up in the conversation: Terminator 2: Judgment Day (though I would disagree), The Road Warrior, and Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan.
As far this blog post’s focus, we’ll be seeing more examples of superhero sequels within weeks with The Amazing Spider-Man 2, the buzz of which already indicates it’s more solid than the original. And there’s X-Men: Days of Future Past, which will try to top X-Men: First Class. We will see if the usual third entry letdown occurs with Captain America and Thor follow-ups in the next couple of years.
One thing is clear – when it comes to comic book pics – the first issue isn’t always the most memorable.
A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $41.7 million
3. Draft Day
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Oculus
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Noah
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.
In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.
That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!
The horror flick Oculus debuts in theaters Friday after receiving a mostly positive reaction when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival last year. Whether or not it scores with the genre’s audience is an open question.
To me, the marketing campaign for Oculus has seemed rather subdued. It features no big stars, but that doesn’t really matter when it comes to how horror flicks perform. This could follow a similar pattern to last August’s You’re Next, which also received good reviews but stumbled at the box office with a $7 million opening.
I don’t believe Oculus will debut that badly, but I think double digits is my range here. Horror pics are notoriously difficult to predict, so who knows? However, as I see it, I wouldn’t look for Oculus 2 anytime soon.
Kevin Costner headlines the football comedy/drama Draft Day, which opens Friday. The film focuses on Costner playing the Cleveland Browns GM and the action surrounding them receiving the #1 pick in the draft.
Costarring Jennifer Garner and Denis Leary and with Ghostbusters director Ivan Reitman behind the camera, the question is whether Draft Day will do for the Cleveland Browns what 1989’s Major League did for the Cleveland Indians? That picture was a success and it was unfortunately followed by some weak sequels. Costner is not near the box office draw he was over two decades ago, as evidenced earlier this year with 3 Days to Kill.
Recent sports entries such as The Blind Side and 42 have posted solid grosses, but I don’t see Draft Day getting close to those. As a lifelong Cleveland sports fan, this shouldn’t surprise. We’re used to anything related to Cleveland sports ending in disappointment. The pic could certainly reach high teens, but I’m more inclined to believe lower teens is the likely scenario.
Draft Day opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million
20th Century Fox is putting out the animated sequel Rio 2 next Friday which will attempt to unseat the Captain America sequel for the #1 spot after its mammoth record setting premiere. This is the follow-up to the 2011 hit which took in a solid $143 million domestically after its $39 million opening.
Featuring the voices of Jesse Eisenberg, Anne Hathaway, will.i.am, and Jamie Foxx, among others, the big question is whether or not Rio 2 opens bigger than its predecessor. I’m uncertain. While Rio did respectable business, it didn’t exactly approach the levels of what Pixar or the Despicable Me series has been accomplishing.
Having said that, I’ll predict this sequel opens just slightly north of the original. My prediction will likely put at the #2 spot in a close fight with Captain America: The Winter Soldier.