Month: March 2014

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club Box Office Prediction

The Tyler Perry film factory rolls along this Friday with The Single Moms Club, a comedic drama that will attempt to appeal to the star’s female fans. Nia Long headlines a cast that include Amy Smart, Terry Crews, and the director himself.

Whether or not the film is a hit, Oprah Winfrey’s OWN network has already announced a television adaptation coming later this year. It’s actually been a lackluster last few months for Perry, as his Peeples and A Madea Christmas both failed to meet expectations. Perry is hoping that Single Moms can achieve roughly the same results as Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor which opened to $21 million around the same time last year. This is the fourth pic from his studio in less than a year, but it could be his last in a while as nothing else is currently in production.

The Single Moms Club, at press time, is scheduled to open on about 200 less screens than Temptation. It should reach roughly the same audience as that movie did and I’ll predict an opening in the high teens before the inevitable large second weekend drop-off that all his films suffer.

Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club opening weekend prediction: $17.6 million

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/need-for-speed-box-office-prediction/

 

Need for Speed Box Office Prediction

Based on the most successful video game series of all time, this Friday’s Need for Speed hopes to bring in a good portion of the Fast and Furious franchise when it debuts. The car chase action fest showcases the first major starring role for “Breaking Bad” costar Aaron Paul with Dominic Cooper and Michael Keaton rounding out the cast.

It has been proven over and over again for the last two decades that a massive video game doesn’t translate into box office success – Super Mario Bros. anyone? However, Speed has done a decent job at marketing itself as a Fast and Furious type experience and that should allow it to have a pretty solid premiere.

Need for Speed could potentially approach the $30 million opening that Olympus Has Fallen achieved in March 2013. I believe a more likely scenario is somewhere in the mid 20s.

Need for Speed opening weekend prediction: $25.3 million

For my prediction on Tyler Perry’s The Single Moms Club, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/09/tyler-perrys-the-single-moms-club-box-office-prediction/

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Yes, the Oscar ceremony celebrating the best of film in 2013 was just four days ago. Yes, it’s entirely too early to start speculating on next year’s Oscars.

Or perhaps not because tomorrow brings us what could be the first legitimate Oscar contender of 2014. It comes in the form of Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Director/writer Anderson has a very loyal following that include most critics. Some of his acclaimed works include Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Fantastic Mr. Fox, and Moonrise Kingdom. All were favorites in the critical community. None have received a Best Picture nomination.

There may a feeling that Anderson is due and Budapest could be that movie. It stands at a solid 87% so far on Rotten Tomatoes. It also has one heckuva cast – with lead Ralph Fiennes joining Adrien Brody, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Harvey Keitel, Jude Law, Bill Murray, Edward Norton, Saoirse Ronan, Jason Schwarztman, Tilda Swinton, Tom Wilkinson, and Owen Wilson. In early reviews, Fiennes has particularly been singled out and we could hear his name mentioned as a Best Actor candidate.

The picture has a great shot at a Best Original Screenplay nomination where Anderson has been nominated twice before for Tenenbaums and Kingdom. It goes without saying, but there’s no way to currently know how good a year 2014 will turn out to be. It’s not even out yet, but I’ll say with confidence that Budapest wouldn’t have been nominated in 2013.

However, 2013 was a rather strong year. With the combination of an overdue feeling for Anderson and current positive buzz, this is 2014’s first Oscar contender.

Box Office Predictions: March 7-9

Family audiences and action fans are the target audiences this weekend as the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman and the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire premiere in theaters. It is likely to be a very tight race between the two pics for the #1 spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Peabody edging out 300, but truth be told – it could easily go either way. As for holdovers, I would expect last weekend’s champ Non-Stop to lose a little less than half its audience. On the other hand, Son of God seems like the type of movie that is frontloaded with its target audience primed to see it during weekend #1. Therefore I expect a drop of over 50%. The competition from Peabody should cause the smash hit LEGO Movie to have its biggest drop yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Mr. Peabody & Sherman

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million

2. 300: Rise of an Empire

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

3. Non-Stop

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Son of God

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)

The results from this past weekend represent what I believe is my best weekend of predictin’ in the history of the blog (pat on back). Liam Neeson’s Non-Stop took top honors with $28.8 million – right in line with my $28.2M estimate. At 61, Neeson is still proving himself to be one of the most bankable action stars in the world.

Son of God was runner-up with an impressive $25.6 million, just below my $26.7M prediction. In third after three weeks at #1 was The LEGO Movie with $20.8 million – on pace with my $20.5M projection. The four spot was Kevin Costner’s 3 Days to Kill in its sophomore weekend with $4.9 million, in line with my $5.1M estimate.

The only place I went wrong was not including The Monuments Men in the top five. It took the five spot with $4.9 million. I had Robocop in fifth but it was sixth my $4.5 million (on par with my $4.6M prediction).

So kudos to me for the weekend! Let’s see if my predictions for this upcoming frame are anywhere close.

I’ll have final results on the blog a week from today.

300: Rise of an Empire Box Office Prediction

300: Rise of an Empire is a big question mark as it arrives in theaters this Friday. Will the sequel bring in a large audience almost exactly seven years after the original was a surprise smash?

Zack Snyder’s 300 shocked prognosticators in 2007 with a gargantuan $70 million debut on its way to a $210 million domestic total. The conventional wisdom is this follow-up won’t come close to that kind of performance and I agree with that. Seven years is a long time between sequels and I’m skeptical that there’s massive pent up anticipation for this.

Having said that, the name brand alone should get it beyond the $30 million mark for an opening. I say should because I’m still a little unsure. A $25 million debut wouldn’t shock me… and that would considered a pretty major letdown for Warner Bros. This was originally scheduled to premiere last summer, but was pushed back. The original director Snyder returns as producer and cowriter with Noam Murro taking over behind the camera duties. Newcomers to the franchise Sullivan Stapleton and Eva Green headline with holdovers from the first Lena Headey and Rodrigo Santoro costarring.

300 should find itself in a battle with the animated Mr. Peabody & Sherman for #1. This could certainly capitalize on the goodwill that the first generated and blast past $40 million. However, I’m going towards the low end of predictions and saying it just gets passed the $30M range.

300: Rise of an Empire opening weekend prediction: $31.1 million

For my Mr. Peabody & Sherman prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/mr-peabody-sherman-box-office-prediction/

 

Mr. Peabody & Sherman Box Office Prediction

Based on a series of animated features from the 1960s that was highlighted on “The Rocky and Bullwinkle Show”, this Friday DreamWorks brings Mr. Peabody & Sherman to theaters. The film features the voices of Ty Burrell, Leslie Mann, Stephen Colbert, Mel Brooks, and others and will attempt to continue a hot run for animated flicks after megahits Frozen and The LEGO Movie.

The fact that family audiences have had plenty of solid choices lately could potentially hinder Peabody‘s grosses. For comparison sake, Fox’s The Croods debuted to $43 million in March of 2013. That would represent quite a victory for this if it could get that high. It’s possible, but I suspect Peabody won’t get past the $40 million mark. Reviews have been positive and that should help, but ultimately I think a premiere in the mid 30s is the most likely scenario here.

Mr. Peabody & Sherman opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million

For my 300: Rise of an Empire prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/03/02/300-rise-of-an-empire-box-office-prediction/