The Wolverine Box Office Prediction

This Friday, we get our second summer 2013 iteration of the comic book movie do-over. In June, we saw Man of Steel, which was made in part to take the bad taste out of moviegoers mouths for 2006’s Superman Returns.

Now – it’s The Wolverine, in part made to achieve a similar feat in relation to 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine. That pic made a lot of money, but was met with derision from critics and a “meh” response from audiences.

The Wolverine is the sixth film taking place in X-Men world and it’s Hugh Jackman’s sixth go-round as Wolverine (remember that humorous cameo in First Class)? Here’s a handy recap of the openings and final domestic grosses of those that came before it:

X-Men (2000)

Opening: $54.4 million. Total Domestic Gross: $157.2 million.

X2: X-Men United (2003)

Opening: $85.5 million. Total Domestic Gross: $214.9 million.

X-Men: The Last Stand (2006)

Opening: $102.7 million. Total Domestic Gross: $234.3 million.

X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009)

Opening: $85 million. Total Domestic Gross: $179.8 million.

X-Men: First Class (2011)

Opening: $55.1 million. Total Domestic Gross: $146.4 million.

You can see a pretty major gap between 2009’s Wolverine pic ($85M) and First Class from two years ago ($55M). Strangely enough, while First Class is the lowest-grossing entry of the series, it was met with critical acclaim and its sequel (out next summer) is likely to open much bigger.

As mentioned, the same cannot be said for the other stand-alone Wolverine pic. So what does this mean for The Wolverine? Early reviews have suggested it’s a considerable improvement on the 2009 flick. That said, I simply don’t see it quite approaching that pic’s $85 million debut.

A more likely scenario is a gross somewhere in the middle of the last two X-Men related features. An opening above $70 million is certainly possible. So is an opening on par with First Class‘s mid-50s debut. I’ll go somewhere on the high end of that range for a pretty solid opening that would rank fourth of the six.

The Wolverine opening weekend prediction: $67.4 million

A Strange (And Innovative) Brand Of Film Marketing

As we enter the home stretch of the summer blockbuster season and have been inundated with sequels and franchise reboots, it’s easy to forget about the smaller and truly independent films. The pictures that are hard to get made, hard to finance, and hard to distribute. Along those lines, these would be the same movies that are difficult to get the word out about.

What’s continually amazing about audiences is their ability to dictate what gets seen in theaters on a number of occasions. The Blair Witch Project. My Big Fat Greek Wedding. Paranormal Activity. Napoleon Dynamite. These are just four instances where a small, low-budget pic broke through to the mainstream. And behind each of those stories is a group of filmmakers and supporters of the project that moved heaven and earth to see that occur.

As a film buff and die-hard movie lover, we must do everything we can to ensure that these projects continue to have the opportunity to make that breakthrough. It just so happens that I have a personal connection to one such project attempting to do just that as we speak.

My life-long best friend’s brother-in-law Brad Wise has embarked on an impressive journey into the movie world. Brad and others are responsible for making A Strange Brand of Happy, scheduled for release early this fall (September 13). I invite you to read about the film at its website here:

http://strangehappymovie.com/

We’ve all read stories about how tough it is to make a studio film, much less an indie project that was shot in Ohio by a group of people who are connected by their faith and their love of movies… but that’s precisely what happened here.

And the team behind A Strange Brand of Happy have developed a strange (yet innovative) method to get their film seen. That would be http://www.seatzy.com. Feel free to look over their site. Basically it works like this (from the website):

So what is Seatzy™?

Seatzy™ is first and foremost a platform for movie goers that will allow all of us to participate in the process of supporting the films we love by…

Reserving tickets in advance so producers will know where and where to open a film (and where not to open it)
Reserving tickets for friends who live somewhere else
Starting a social media campaign to bring the movie to your city or any other city of your choice
Donating tickets or to the cause behind the movie if you feel so inclined

From what I understand, Strange Brand‘s director Brad and company have seen some success with their decision to go the Seatzy route. And as the process of getting one’s project seen becomes more complicated in a film market that has greatly expanded ways to view their product, I’m not surprised to witness these kinds of groundbreaking ideas.

Knowing the film’s director, I am convinced that he’s entered the world of movies for the right reasons and his tenacity and inventive marketing abilities are highly admirable. Strange brands of getting your picture made, distributed, and seen are necessary these days. Brad Wise and his team have happily entered the fray and I wish them the best of luck!

The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 10-6

We have entered the Top Ten of my personal list of the 25 Greatest Directors working today. If you have missed the three previous posts covering #s 25-11, they can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-25-21/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-20-16/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/20/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-15-11/

Let’s get to the Top Ten, shall we?

10. Guillermo del Toro

Mr. del Toro has emerged as perhaps the most exciting sci-fi/fantasy director working today. Among his credits: Blade II, the best of the franchise and the two Hellboy pics, both rock solid genre pieces. In 2006, del Toro directed the visual masterpiece Pan’s Labyrinth and he just put out Pacific Rim. He’s the fanboy auteur of the moment…. or at least one of two (see #7).

9. David O. Russell

Russell started out as an indie director in the 90s with Spanking the Monkey and Flirting with Disaster. He’s gone on to direct some high-quality pics including Three Kings, The Fighter, and Silver Linings Playbook.

8. Paul Thomas Anderson

Other than Pulp Fiction, I would maintain that 1997’s Boogie Nights is the best film of the past twenty years. His level of quality has maintained since with 1999’s Magnolia, 2002’s Punch Drunk Love, and 2007’s There Will Be Blood with an electric performance from Daniel Day-Lewis. Was last year’s The Master a bit of a letdown? I thought so, but PTA is a master regardless.

7. JJ Abrams

He was known mostly for television shows such as “Alias” and “Lost”, but then Abrams branched into film in a huge way with the third Mission: Impossible in 2006. This led to Abrams taking over the Star Trek franchise to great effect. 2011’s Super 8 was a very well-done Spielberg homage. And now… JJ will take over another franchise in 2015. If you don’t know which one… you should.

6. The Coen Brothers

For nearly thirty years, the Coens have been putting out quality picture after quality picture and doing it their way. Blood Simple. Raising Arizona. Miller’s Crossing. Barton Fink. The Hudsucker Proxy. Fargo. The Big Lebowski. O Brother Where Art Thou? The Man Who Wasn’t There. No Country for Old Men. Burn After Reading. True Grit. Their latest, Inside Llewyn Davis (out this fall), is already garnering Oscar buzz.

One more post to go and I’ll reveal my Top 5 best directors very soon!

Box Office Results: July 19-21

Nobody was too sure what would happen at the box office this weekend as four new titles opened, Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim entered their sophomore frames, and the animated juggernaut Despicable Me 2 had its third weekend.

I was correct that the critically acclaimed horror title The Conjuring would take the top spot, but it ended up doing even better than my prediction. Warner Bros. has a huge hit on its hands as The Conjuring grossed $41.5 million, more than double its $20 million budget and above my $35.3M projection. This is a higher debut than other well-performing horror openings in 2013, like Mama and The Purge. Furthermore, The Conjuring earned a rock solid A- Cinemascore grade which means it may hold up better in subsequent weekends than other horror flicks.

Dreamworks animated Turbo had a fairly lackluster debut with $31.2 million over its five-day opening and $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday frame. This is below my five-day projection of $42.8M and $27.1M over the traditional weekend. Turbo may experience small declines over the next several weeks, but a five-day opening of just over $30M for a high-profile animated flick isn’t too strong. This allowed Despicable Me 2 to remain #2 in its third weekend with $25.1 million, above my $22.3M estimate.

Grown Ups 2 held up slightly better in its second weekend with $20 million. I predicted $18.6 million. As mentioned last week, Adam Sandler needed a hit after a couple of flops and he’s got one.

Opening in fifth place with a weak debut is Red 2, which took in $18.5 million – below my $22.7M projection. The sequel failed to even gross what its predecessor opened at in 2010. In my prediction post earlier in the week, I asked whether audiences were really clamoring for a sequel. The answer, apparently, is no.

Pacific Rim dropped a bit further than I figured with $16 million in its sophomore frame (I projected $17.3M). With an enormous budget, Rim‘s domestic numbers have been unimpressive.

Finally, I correctly projected a disastrous opening for R.I.P.D. and that’s exactly what happened. The sci-fi comedy with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds opened with a loud thud, opening in seventh with $12.8 million. This is slightly below my $13.6M projection. Universal Pictures did a terrible job marketing this flick (didn’t help that it looked terrible anyway) and they have a massive bomb before them (its budget was reportedly $130 million).

Whew! That’s all for now, folks! I’ll be back soon enough with my box office prediction for next weekend’s big opener, The Wolverine. Stay tuned!

The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 15-11

This evening I bring you part III of the 25 Greatest Directors Working Today. If you missed #s 25-21, you may peruse it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-25-21/

For directors I listed 20-16, right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/19/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-20-16/

Let’s move onto 15-11 before we get to the Top Ten soon enough:

15. Darren Aronofosky

In 2000, he made one of the greatest drug movies of all time, Requiem for a Dream. In 2008, he led Mickey Rourke to a career-best role in The Wrestler. In 2010, he made the trippy and absolutely fantastic Black Swan, which brought Natalie Portman a deserved Best Actress statue.

14. Alfonso Cuaron

In the past few years, Cuaron made the indie favorite Y Tu Mama Tambien before directing Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, the best of the franchise. His 2006 feature Children of Men is one of the most amazingly made pics of the 21st century. This fall comes his space thriller Gravity with George Clooney and Sandra Bullock.

13. Ang Lee

We’ll forgive that unfortunate Hulk movie in 2003. Lee is a master as he’s displayed in The Ice Storm, Brokeback Mountain, and especially last year’s triumph of directing, Life of Pi.

12. Ben Affleck

He’s only three pictures deep but each one has gotten even better: Gone Baby Gone, The Town, and Argo. Inexplicably, Argo won Best Picture at last year’s Oscars and Ben wasn’t even nominated. He’ll be back, I have a feeling.

11. Steven Soderbergh

Mr. Soderbergh has been churning out an eclectic array of solid pics for 25 years – from sex, lies, and videotape, Out of Sight, Erin Brockovich, Traffic, The Informant!, Contagion, Magic Mike, and HBO’s Behind the Candelabra.

Top Ten coming very soon, folks!

2015 Movies: A Film Geek’s Paradise

This morning at Comic Con, Warner Bros. made the announcement that Man of Steel 2 will be released in 2015 with Zack Snyder returning to direct and Henry Cavill back to star. The studio made another revelation about the film that is already making headlines: Batman will be in it! Christian Bale has already announced he will not be back as the Caped Crusader, so expect plenty of speculation beginning now about who will be cast in the iconic role.

Man of Steel 2 joins a rather amazing list of pictures scheduled for 2015. This is a year that unquestionably stands out for film geeks. Let’s consider that these characters will grace the silver screen in that year: James Bond. Batman. Superman. Ethan Hunt. The Terminator. Iron Man. Jack Sparrow. And a whole lot more.

The two most hotly awaited movies: the sequel to last year’s The Avengers with Joss Whedon back directing and the whole gang back including, of course, Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man/Tony Stark. Oh… and then there’s Star Wars Episode VII from JJ Abrams. You’ve probably heard of it.

That duo is enough to get excited for 2015. However, if it’s more sequels you want, don’t worry! 2015 is when we’ll likely see Avatar 2. That would be the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time.

Do you like fifth installments of franchises? No worries. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 with Johnny Depp returning as Jack Sparrow will be out. So will Terminator 5, reportedly with Arnold Schwarzenegger back in his signature role. And Tom Cruise will reprise his Ethan Hunt character in Mission: Impossible 5.

Do you like fourth installments of franchises? No worries. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part II will be released. So will Jurassic Park IV.

How about just second installments? Other than the aforementioned follow-ups to Man of Steel, The Avengers, and Avatar, we’ll see a sequel to 1996’s Independence Day. Apparently Will Smith won’t be back, but Jeff Goldblum will!! Kristen Stewart is returning in Snow White and the Huntsman 2.

For the kids, Pixar is putting out Finding Dory, the sequel to 2003’s Finding Nemo. Kids can also enjoy seeing Charlie Brown and the gang in the animated Peanuts.

James Bond returns in the as-yet-untitled 24th 007 picture. Skyfall director Sam Mendes is back along with Daniel Craig.

For more comic book action, Marvel’s Ant-Man directed by Edgar Wright will be out, as will a Fantastic Four reboot from Chronicle director Josh Trank.

Thor director Kenneth Branagh will bring us a live-action version of Cinderella. Michael Fassbender stars in the film version of the wildly popular video game Assassin’s Creed.

So… needless to say, 2015 is going to be a big year at the box office. There are three legitimate contenders – Star Wars Episode 7, Avengers 2, Avatar 2 – that stand reasonable chances of breaking a lot of box office records. Get ready, my friends!

The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 20-16

And we continue on with my personal list of the 25 Greatest Directors Working Today! For those who missed yesterday’s post covering numbers 25-21, you may find it here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/18/the-25-greatest-directors-working-today-25-21/

We move on to part 2 naming 20-16:

20. Brad Bird

Mr. Bird got his start directing three critically acclaimed animated features: The Iron Giant, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille. Bird made a very promising live-action debut in 2011 with Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, possibly the best in the franchise so far.

19. Danny Boyle

An eclectic filmmaker for sure, Boyle has shown a mastery for all kinds of genres. His credits include Trainspotting, 28 Days Later and its sequel 28 Weeks Later, Millions, Sunshine, Slumdog Millionaire, 127 Hours, and Trance.

18. Peter Jackson

Mr. Jackson has thrilled audiences for over a decade with his visualization of Tolkien works, the Lord of the Rings trilogy and the Hobbit trilogy. This is in addition to King Kong and The Lovely Bones. Is he a visual genius? Absolutely. Does he need an editor from time to time? Yes sir.

17. Kathryn Bigelow

Bigelow made history in 2009 when she became the first female to win Best Director at the Oscars for The Hurt Locker. She also directed last year’s Bin Laden manhunt thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Just as impressive: Bigelow made 1991’s surfing flick Point Break, one of the most fun action pictures ever made.

16. Sam Mendes

He won an Oscar for directing 1999’s American Beauty and went on to direct Road to Perdition, Jarhead, and Revolutionary Road. And now Mr. Mendes has taken over the James Bond franchise in glorious fashion with last year’s Skyfall. He just signed to direct the 24th 007 picture, out in 2015.

That’s all for now my friends! I’ll be back with numbers 15-11 very quickly.

The 25 Greatest Directors Working Today: 25-21

For those who’ve followed the blog for a bit, you’ll know I love lists. And when the idea came across to name my Top 25 Greatest Directors right now, I knew it would be a challenge.

It truly was. This list will be comprised in five parts with five directors named each post in descending order, from #25 to #1. Of course, this list is totally subjective. I would expect and anticipate disagreement. I would expect my readers to disagree with placement of names and leaving certain directors off. That’s what makes these lists so fun!

Before we get to the Top 25, I’ve deemed it necessary to touch on some names left off the list. I’ll do my best to explain why.

First off, directors with only one or two pictures were unlikely to make the cut. Two perfect examples: Joss Whedon (director of last summer’s terrific The Avengers) and Neill Blomkamp (director of 2009’s innovative sci-fi adventure District 9). This would also apply to Rian Johnson, who made one of my favorites pics of 2012, Looper. He’s directed other indie films such as Brick, which I haven’t seen. Upon viewing them, perhaps he makes the list. I also very reluctantly left off Nicolas Winding Refn, whose 2011 pic Drive is one of my favorites of the last few years. However, it’s the only film of his I’ve seen.

And then there’s the directors who would have unquestionably been on the list 5, 10, or 20 years ago but have been disappointing lately. This a longer list. It includes Michael Mann, who was on fire in the 1990s with The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, and The Insider but whose last couple efforts (Miami Vice and Public Enemies) have been letdowns. Tim Burton has mostly been directing disappointments lately and I reluctantly left him off, but I’m anxious for him to do something good again! Same goes for Oliver Stone. Ten years ago, Bryan Singer was coming off two very well-done X-Men pictures. Since then, we saw the mediocre Superman Returns and Jack the Giant Slayer. Zack Snyder also gets the Superman curse with Man of Steel, which I wasn’t crazy about. After 300 and Watchmen, he would’ve certainly made the cut. Sam Raimi would have been on ten years ago during his first two Spiderman films, but the third one and Oz the Great and Powerful don’t measure up. Gore Verbinski had The Ring and the original Pirates of the Caribbean. Then – those Pirates sequels and The Lone Ranger. The ultimate example: ten years ago, M. Night Shyamalan might have made the top five. Now, after The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth, I didn’t even consider him.

And then there’s the simple fact that the list is twenty-five. Three names that almost made it: Clint Eastwood, Alexander Payne, and Paul Greengrass. However, there can only be 25 so here we go with Part I.

25. James Cameron

Some may say he’s too low, but the man has only directed three pictures in the last 20 years. Of course, his last two (Titanic, Avatar) set worldwide box office records and he’s a visionary genius. His writing leaves a bit to be desired, but he belongs on the list regardless.

24. Wes Anderson

Anderson has carved out an impressive niche of quirky comedies: Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou, The Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Darjeeling Limited, and Moonrise Kingdom.

23. Woody Allen

Woody has always been hit or miss, but he directs a picture a year and when he hits, it’s still great. Two prime examples from the last decade: Match Point and Midnight in Paris. His latest effort, Blue Jasmine, is already receiving positive notices.

22. Ridley Scott

OK, we’re still a bit puzzled over Prometheus, but you can’t ignore Gladiator, Black Hawk Down and American Gangster in recent years. Plus… this dude directed Alien and Blade Runner, for goodness sake!

21. Matthew Vaughn

His Kick-Ass was tremendous fun and then he went on to infuse much needed life in the X-Men franchise with X-Men: First Class. He was rumored to be taking over the Star Wars franchise, but it never happened. Regardless, I can’t wait to see how his career trajectory goes.

And there’s numbers 25-21, folks! I’ll be back soon with 20-16!

Box Office Predictions: July 19-21

Well, how’s this for an upcoming jigsaw puzzle of a weekend for box office predictions? We have the current #1 Despicable Me 2 entering its third weekend. We have Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim entering their second weekends. And we have an astonishing four new movies opening: the supernatural thriller The Conjuring, Dreamworks animated Turbo, the action/comedy sequel Red 2, and the sci-fi comedy R.I.P.D.

Yesterday I wrote extensive prediction posts on all four newbies which can be found linked below:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/the-conjuring-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/turbo-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/red-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/14/r-i-p-d-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, with the infusion of competition especially from Turbo, Despicable Me 2 may lose around half its audience. Due to the same reasons, I expect Grown Ups 2 and Pacific Rim to lose more than half their debut weekend audiences. With all the new titles this week, I’m changing my usual format of picking the top five to top seven. And, with that, here it is:

1. The Conjuring

Predicted Gross: $35.3 million

2. Turbo

Predicted Gross: $27.1 million ($42.8 million for projected five-day gross)

3. Red 2

Predicted Gross: $22.7 million

4. Despicable Me 2

Predicted Gross: $22.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Grown Ups 2

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million (representing a drop of 55%)

6. Pacific Rim

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million (representing a drop of 53%)

7. R.I.P.D.

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million

We shall see how it all shakes out this coming weekend. Per usual, I’ll have weekend updates on the Facebook page with final results on Sunday!

R.I.P.D. Box Office Prediction

Unless my radar is way off, R.I.P.D. looks to be a massive bomb when it opens this weekend. The title stands for Rest In Peace Department and stars Ryan Reynolds and Jeff Bridges as deceased law enforcement officers who must battle evil spirits.

I’m going to get to the point: the trailer for R.I.P.D. makes it look like an ultra-cheesy Men in Black rip-off with Bridges doing a bad comedic version of his Rooster Cogburn character from True Grit. When the trailer is as atrocious as this one, what does that say for the film?

To make matters worse, the competition for R.I.P.D. is seemingly insurmountable. If it’s going for family audiences, there’s Turbo and Despicable Me 2 out there. If it’s going for teenagers and young adults, it has to compete with The Conjuring and the second weekends of Pacific Rim and Grown Ups 2, as well as Red 2 for a more adult and action-oriented demographic. So… how does this make money? My answer: it doesn’t

R.I.P.D. inexplicably boasts a hefty $130 million budget and that spells big trouble ahead for Universal Pictures, as I see it. The film looks headed to a dismal seventh place finish at the box office. Bottom line: R.I.P.D. looks DOA.

R.I.P.D. opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million