FINAL Oscar Predictions: Best Actor and Actress

With the Academy Award nominations coming out Thursday, this is part two of my series of FINAL predictions for what and whom will be recognized. We are at my predictions for Best Actor and Actress, with Best Director to come Tuesday and Best Picture on Wednesday.

BEST ACTOR

Let’s get this out of the way first: if Daniel Day-Lewis is not nominated for Lincoln, it would constitute one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history. There is no way that’s going to happen. None. If it happens, you can call me every name in the book publicly on Facebook. That’s my confidence level in that nomination.

After that, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen an Oscar race like this year’s for Best Actor. Why? As I’ve explained in previous posts, there are five other performances that would be shoo-ins in any other year. However, only four will make it in.

Those five performances are: John Hawkes in The Sessions, Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, Denzel Washington in Flight, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, and Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There’s also Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, who remains a remote possibility if the French film really ends up taking off with voters.

In a weaker year, performances such as Jamie Foxx in Django Unchained and Richard Gere in Arbitrage, among others, would merit consideration.

You can make arguments for any of those five performers being left off. For Hawkes, The Sessions is a small film that didn’t really connect with audiences. If Helen Hunt doesn’t get a Supporting Actress nod for the movie (I’ve predicted she will), Hawkes could be in trouble.

For Denzel, Flight was once considered a contender for Best Picture. This doesn’t seem as likely now and Denzel could easily be the film’s only nomination… or perhaps the Academy ignores it altogether.

The Master was once considered a shoo-in for nominations for Picture and Director. This also seems much less likely now. Phoenix has missed out on the some of the precursors, too.

Bradley Cooper is still pretty new in the game, at least to Academy voters. His co-stars in Silver Linings Playbook like Jennifer Lawrence and Robert De Niro have gotten the lions share of attention.

Hugh Jackman has received career best reviews for Les Miserables, but if the movie fails to get a Best Picture nomination (which seems unlikely) or Best Director (which could happen), there could be a ripple effect leaving Jackman out.

So there’s the arguments against each one, but the truth is, I’ve had a tougher time deciding which one gets left out more than any other category I’m predicting. But, I’ve got to pick and I’m not changing the five from my last post.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

As I’ve written about before, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty appear to be shoo-ins. Then there’s uncertainty.

Emmanuelle Riva, an 84 year old French actress has gotten a good deal of attention for Amour. Naomi Watts has gotten fine reviews for The Impossible. Quevenzhane Wallis is 9 years old and received great notices for starring in the indie favorite Beasts of the Southern Wild. Marion Cotillard also has received attention for indie film Rust and Bone. Rachel Weisz got some surprise precursor nominations and wins for this past spring’s thriller The Deep Blue Sea. Helen Mirren was singled out by critics for her performance as Mrs. Hitchcock in Hitchcock. 

Any one of these ladies could join Lawrence and Chastain on Thursday’s list and really no combination would shock me.

FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST ACTRESS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

All right, folks! Check back tomorrow when we cover Best Director!